Offensive Struggles To ... Offensive Breakout?

After Pat Shurmur took over as offensive coordinator following Norv Tuner‘s resignation, Minnesota averaged 332 yards per game in nine contests, an improvement over the 293 yards per game the club averaged under Turner. Sam Bradford, too, played relatively well under Shurmur, posting the all-time NFL record for completion percentage while (admittedly) throwing to an extremely short average depth of target. By weighted DVOA — which places more emphasis on more recent games — the Vikings actually (slightly) regressed under Shurmur, as they finished 27th in wDVOA as opposed to 26th in straight DVOA

In 2015, the rate of play-action usage dipped to just under 19 percent after holding steady around 21 percent in the previous three seasons. That rate actually dropped a little bit more in 2016. It's down to just 18.5 percent now, the lowest since 2010. This is not exactly the most precipitous drop-off in the world, but it is consistent, and it brings us back to the sort of environment we saw in the '00s (the 2000s? The naughts? The Ottos? Whatever we're calling that decade now). After a three-year blip, we seem to be back to "normal" now.

It's important to note that there was a data-entry change between 2014 and 2015; we moved from using ESPN Stats & Info charting for play-action to using SIS charting with ESPN data as a check. Any time you see a significant change in data immediately after changing how you assemble said data, it's worth being at least a little suspicious. There are enough plays where you look at a little feint and wonder "was that actually a play-fake?" that judgment calls come in along the margins, and at least some of the difference could easily be one set of charters being more liberal in what they call play-action than others. These are some of the fun, exciting things you experience in the world of subjective data entry.

If the drop was consistent among all teams, that's exactly what I would call it: a data glitch; a statistical footnote. But the drop-off isn't consistent across the league. What we're seeing, in large part, is the end of the zone-read era.

Six teams had at least two seasons in the 2012-2014 "hot zone" where they ran play-action on more than a quarter of their passes -- Washington, Seattle, Philadelphia, Carolina, Minnesota, and San Francisco -- and all six have fallen back towards the mean in recent years. That's pretty much a who's-who of zone-reads and read-options. Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick were the "big four" dual-threat quarterbacks to enter the league in 2011 and 2012. Chip Kelly brought his Oregon offense with him to the pros in Philadelphia. Minnesota's something of the odd team out, but even they were in the illustrious Christian Ponder era.

Those six teams used play-action on more than 30 percent of their passes in 2012 and 2013, thanks in large part to the sheer number of zone-read plays they brought to the table. While other teams may have seen their play-action rate fluctuate, the consistency of the Big Six seems to be what was driving the league-wide increase in play-action rate.
Of course, neither Kelly, Ponder, Griffin, nor Kaepernick currently have NFL jobs -- take that much rushing philosophy away from the league, and it's no surprise that play-action rates have fallen off of a cliff. The Panthers and Seahawks have also dialed their play-action down in recent years, for a number of reasons. Their quarterbacks have continued to mature and develop as passers. Their offensive lines have grown, if anything, more questionable at holding their blocks.

Most importantly, though, is the fact that defenses around the league have learned how to cover read-option plays, with scrape exchanges and double A-gap blitzes and the like. Teams still use the read-option, but they've also moved on to using more run/pass options and package plays for their misdirection. It's not like the zone-read was a Wildcat-esque fad, but it's no longer the zeitgeist of offensive football like it was a few years ago.

Right, so that covers the drop-off. But what about the play-action plays that actually were run in 2016?

The Vikings had the fewest rushing first downs in the NFL last year, and ran the ball less often in 2016 than they have in a decade — even less than they did in the Adrian Peterson-less 2014 campaign.

It’s easy to understand why that’s the case, but knowing that Shurmur and Bradford have been together for unusually pass-heavy offenses (with the Rams) as well as unusually run-heavy offenses (with the Eagles) tells us that they really might be flexible to whatever works.

One might be tempted to dismiss the idea of an “offensive identity,” but it will be good for the Vikings to develop a roster of base plays that revolve around a central theme of “things they are good at.” Right now, the Vikings are figuring out what they’re good at.