Retool or Rebuild for 2022?

Vikings' defensive free agents:
Barr*
Peterson*
Richardson
Breeland*
Woods*
Alexander*
Vigil
Griffen*

Vikings offensive free agents:
Hill
Westbrook
Mannion
Beebe
Cole
Chisena
Brandel
Ellefson
Conklin*

Special Teams:
Joseph
Berry
DePaola

*Indicates a starter

The Vikings are 5.5 million over the cap and there is not anyone currently signed who the Vikings could realistically cut to save significant cap.

The starters on offense should remain the same. I suspect Conklin will not be re-signed, but he is really the backup.

On defense our starting lineup looks like this prior to any free agent signings or draft picks:

Dline
RDE: DJ Wonnum
LDE: Hunter
NT: Pierce
3Tech: Tomlinson

Any line with Wonnum starting is in trouble, but this is still probably the strength of the D with 3 quality starters. Bringing back Griffen again would really help here.

Linebacker
MLB:Kendricks
WLB: Lynch?
SLB: Surrat?

After Kendricks there is pretty much nothing at the moment. Can the Vikings count on the undersized Surrat to take Barr's place? Who the heck else is there?

Secondary
FS: Bynum
SS: Smith
CB1: Dantzler
CB2: Boyd
CB3: Hand

Like most Vikings fans, I was impressed with Bynum this past Sunday. However, even if he is great and Smith does not regress due to age that is still a pretty lousy secondary. Those corners are not good.

No improvement on offense, significant regression on defense prior to the draft and free agency. Even if the Vikings have a great draft and nail free agency, maintaining the status quo of 9 wins seems to be the best we could hope for. Which seems better than bottoming out and rebuilding until you realize that to sign those free agents the team would have to sacrifice future year's cap to win 9 fricken games.

Unfortunately, Rick will be fighting for his job and will hurt future seasons in order to win enough games to stay relevant in the current one.

The big decision points for the cap will rely on Cousins and Hunter, as they account for $45M and $26.1M respectively. Trading them saves $35M and $19M/$23M (depending on Post June cut) respectively. I don't see any obvious cut candidates either, but they do have some trade options.

The entire offense can be kept together, and Irv Smith will likely start at TE in 2022, so they can basically return the whole group (though they will likely need a center and at least one guard). Defensively, it might be time to hit the reset button. I wouldn't hate giving Bynum a shot at starting, as he'd be a cheap starter, and if he pans out he doesn't hit FA until 2025.
They'd really be better off finding a new GM who can focus on rebuilding this team rather than having one that is preoccupied with winning now when the team isn't built to do so. Keeping Spielman feels like we'd just be delaying the inevitable. He's a sunk cost at this point.

Not sure I understand the buzz about the Chiefs GM. Mahomes was an Andy Reid decision. That 'rebuilt' Offensive Line from the offseason stinks. Bet they wish they hadn't blown a 1st Round pick on a scat back. Or traded for Frank Clark. The Defense is largely devoid of home grown talent.

As far as Minnesota you start at the top. Rick extending Cousins is Exhibit A for his dismissal. His constant trade downs at the expense of the O-Line had the consequence of having to spend much more high Round picks later on to fix it. How many Teams have that many high Round picks on their O-Line? Overpaying on the Trade Market is Exhibit C. Time for him to go.

I do like the OCs that get mentioned a lot like Leftwich, Dabol, etc. Moore not so much.

Jor-El is right that there is very little possibility that anyone trades for Cousins. He's a known commodity at this point. Any GM needing a QB can at least prolong his tenure a little while longer by drafting a kid with a rocket arm and wheels who doesn't work out as it takes a few years to close the book on a bust pick. You bring in Cousins and his still fairly big cap hit and he doesn't turn the Team around you'll have an entire fan base saying 'He was who we said he was!'.

Kirk will unfortunately be the Starter next year. But that's OK in that I've never bought Mond as a 'Ready after 1 Year' investment. Let him sit another year while learning under an HC and OV that hopefully have proven that they can develop a young guy (which is why Dabol makes a ton of sense).

Veteran Centers and Veteran #2 TEs are nearly a dime a dozen and usually fairly cheap. I'd get one of each and wait for a better Draft Class to replace Badbury and Conklin. I'd add a mid-round WR to fight it out with ISM and continue to develop KJ as the #2 WR of the future. Thielen isn't going to bring back enough to justify moving him and I want one Veteran in that room.

On Defense it's tougher. Ideally Hunter is the foundational piece but only if you can get him to stay at the right price. RDE and LB are holes that I would spend a 1st Round pick on if the right player is there. Kendricks has several more years left as the other key piece of the Front 7. Bobby Wagner is showing no signs of slowing down and he's 2 years older.

I would absolutely extend Woods to pair with Bynum and let Harry walk sooner than later. Probably after this season, actually, if I remember his contract details correctly. Time to sink or swim with Dantzler/Boyd/Hand. But also, sadly, there needs to be another higher round pick added. I like Harrison to replace McKenzie but Boyd is meh and Dantzler is too inconsistent.

Draft-wise I'm looking all Defense in the first 3 Rounds and wouldn't mind doubling down on CB and LB with additional mid-round picks. Having said that, I am curious to see what a new Defensive Coaching Staff could get out of Dye, Surratt and Connelly. Lynch, too, I guess. Dye was really good in college. Surratt is raw but was DPOY in the ACC. Hopefully there's some potential to fill a spot there.

I'm also hopeful a change will unlock the DTs to actually stop the run. Watts and Lynch have potential but I'd really like to see what Pierce and Tomlinson look like shooting gaps instead of just occupying blockers. Special Teams are fine for now but I'd like to see some competition for Joseph next year.

Big picture is fairly bleak, unfortunately. I don't honestly believe Mond will develop so the Vikings are likely a minimum of 3 years out from taking a swing at finding a Franchise QB. I also don't think Hunter stays as his camp will be telling him to get Top 5 pay now and I don't see how a rebuilding Team can justify that.

Several years of mediocre to potentially even bad Teams ahead even with the right hires unless Mond is legit or they find one in the 2023 Draft.

That could change.

Right now, if I had to guess what happens this offseason:
Rodgers -> Broncos
Watson -> Dolphins 

For teams that would consider Cousins, I could see the Steelers and Panthers. The Lions and Texans need QBs, but they will likely look for prospects. Saints will need one, but a cheap one since their cap is a complete mess. WFT needs one too but they aren't touching Kirk again. Seattle would be an option if Russell asks out.

I don't see TE as a huge need, just sign a blocking TE (they're not hard to find) and draft a TE prospect to back up Smith Jr. in more of the receiving role. No need to go overboard here.

How is LB/CB not among the top needs?