Post by PurpleFloyd on Dec 18, 2021 12:51:12 GMT -6
@alstrain If the Vikings want to blow it up, how tradeable is Cousins with his cap hit? You’ve thrown out a first rounder from Pittsburgh on the podcast. How much of his salary to the Vikings have to eat to get a first rounder back? Or, what do asset they have to attach to move on?
The Vikings take a $10 million dead cap hit if they trade Cousins. They won’t need to do anything more than that other than maybe sending a third back to get the first. If Carson Wentz can be one of the worst QBs in the NFL in 2020 and have an expensive contract and still land a first-round pick for the Eagles, the Vikings can find a buyer at a similar price. If Sam Darnold costs a second in change, come on. Whichever team trades for Cousins would sign him to a contract extension that would lower his cap hit and make it more feasible for that team in Year 1 and 2. That makes the most sense to me. As for potential buyers, I’ve got the Steelers, Saints, Texans, Giants and Panthers standing out and then some low key possible teams like Cleveland, Las Vegas, Denver in the conversation too.
The Vikings take a $10 million dead cap hit if they trade Cousins. They won’t need to do anything more than that other than maybe sending a third back to get the first. If Carson Wentz can be one of the worst QBs in the NFL in 2020 and have an expensive contract and still land a first-round pick for the Eagles, the Vikings can find a buyer at a similar price. If Sam Darnold costs a second in change, come on. Whichever team trades for Cousins would sign him to a contract extension that would lower his cap hit and make it more feasible for that team in Year 1 and 2. That makes the most sense to me. As for potential buyers, I’ve got the Steelers, Saints, Texans, Giants and Panthers standing out and then some low key possible teams like Cleveland, Las Vegas, Denver in the conversation too.
The Athletic Mailbag:
I’ve been reading that Kirk Cousins is a name to keep an eye on in the trade market. I’m interested to know what you think his value is, and if you think a team that misses out on Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers or maybe Deshaun Watson will take a swing on him since he does only have one year left and we would probably pay half his salary. The team we just beat comes to mind as a trade partner. — Tuong-Vi’Toria N.
It’s not a given that the Vikings are going to look to move on from Cousins. If they make the playoffs and have the same leadership in place, then an extension that lowers his 2022 cap hit is an option.
But let’s briefly look at what might happen if there’s an entire regime change after a disappointing end to the season. At that point, a new front office might look to trade Cousins and pick a new quarterback, probably one in the draft. If they did that, I think it’s worth looking back on the trade that sent Alex Smith to Washington to, ironically, replace Cousins.
Smith was 33 when he was traded in 2018, the same age Cousins is now. Smith was traded for a young, starting-caliber player (Kendall Fuller, who was drafted in the third round two years earlier) and a third-round pick.
A team trading for Cousins would probably only do so if it planned on signing him to an extension with the idea that he’d be the franchise quarterback for at least the next three years. There’s a chance that his statistics with the Vikings convince a team that can happen.
If it does, the Vikings will probably seek a similar trade package to the one Kansas City got, hoping for a Day 2 draft pick as well as a starting-caliber player.
The conventional wisdom seems to be the Vikings, under no circumstances, will let Cousins play on the $45 million cap hit in 2022. I know these are a lot of ifs, but if there’s a complete regime change and no good trade offers for Cousins (i.e., the Vikings have to attach a draft pick to get someone to take him off their hands), why wouldn’t the new regime just eat the $45 million in ’22 and count it as “Year Zero?”
• They’d essentially get a free pass from the fans/media for whatever happens their first year. “Look what they inherited, what were they supposed to do?!”
• They wouldn’t be forced to take a QB in the first round if they didn’t like their options.
• If they didn’t draft a QB in 2022, because there are no illusions about Cousins being on the team in 2023, they would be able to play Kellen Mond to see what they have (aka, tank) once they inevitably fall out of the playoff race.
• All moves are done with the 2023 season in mind.
To me, it’s obvious. Where is the fly in the ointment? Or is it as simple as “the Wilfs don’t want it that way?” — Zach S.
It’s a long question, but Zach made some great points, so I left it unedited. The X-factor in this is the Wilfs. They haven’t had the stomach for a full rebuild. They want the team to contend for the playoffs every year even if a full rebuild (with a couple of really bad seasons) might offer a better chance at that.
To play devil’s advocate, though, the other potential pitfall is you’d ideally want to know what you have in Mond before deciding whether to seek a new quarterback in the first round. And if Cousins is around on a $45 million cap hit, I don’t think Mond is going to see the field.
But on the whole, you’re right. We shouldn’t act like it’s a 100 percent given that Cousins is either getting an extension or getting traded.
It’s not a given that the Vikings are going to look to move on from Cousins. If they make the playoffs and have the same leadership in place, then an extension that lowers his 2022 cap hit is an option.
But let’s briefly look at what might happen if there’s an entire regime change after a disappointing end to the season. At that point, a new front office might look to trade Cousins and pick a new quarterback, probably one in the draft. If they did that, I think it’s worth looking back on the trade that sent Alex Smith to Washington to, ironically, replace Cousins.
Smith was 33 when he was traded in 2018, the same age Cousins is now. Smith was traded for a young, starting-caliber player (Kendall Fuller, who was drafted in the third round two years earlier) and a third-round pick.
A team trading for Cousins would probably only do so if it planned on signing him to an extension with the idea that he’d be the franchise quarterback for at least the next three years. There’s a chance that his statistics with the Vikings convince a team that can happen.
If it does, the Vikings will probably seek a similar trade package to the one Kansas City got, hoping for a Day 2 draft pick as well as a starting-caliber player.
The conventional wisdom seems to be the Vikings, under no circumstances, will let Cousins play on the $45 million cap hit in 2022. I know these are a lot of ifs, but if there’s a complete regime change and no good trade offers for Cousins (i.e., the Vikings have to attach a draft pick to get someone to take him off their hands), why wouldn’t the new regime just eat the $45 million in ’22 and count it as “Year Zero?”
• They’d essentially get a free pass from the fans/media for whatever happens their first year. “Look what they inherited, what were they supposed to do?!”
• They wouldn’t be forced to take a QB in the first round if they didn’t like their options.
• If they didn’t draft a QB in 2022, because there are no illusions about Cousins being on the team in 2023, they would be able to play Kellen Mond to see what they have (aka, tank) once they inevitably fall out of the playoff race.
• All moves are done with the 2023 season in mind.
To me, it’s obvious. Where is the fly in the ointment? Or is it as simple as “the Wilfs don’t want it that way?” — Zach S.
It’s a long question, but Zach made some great points, so I left it unedited. The X-factor in this is the Wilfs. They haven’t had the stomach for a full rebuild. They want the team to contend for the playoffs every year even if a full rebuild (with a couple of really bad seasons) might offer a better chance at that.
To play devil’s advocate, though, the other potential pitfall is you’d ideally want to know what you have in Mond before deciding whether to seek a new quarterback in the first round. And if Cousins is around on a $45 million cap hit, I don’t think Mond is going to see the field.
But on the whole, you’re right. We shouldn’t act like it’s a 100 percent given that Cousins is either getting an extension or getting traded.
If the Vikings are going to send Kirk packing are they also going to trade JJ and Cook?
Because neither of them are going to want to burn a year of their career having Mond distribute the football.
That is unless he is the franchise QB we have been looking for for 40 years.
But if he is then Rick did his job and he will be keeping his job and none of this regime change happens. Well-Maybe Zimmer.
... and neither is this Chris guy.