Retool or Rebuild for 2022?

Would a loss against Pittsburgh spark changes?

Matthew: One thing that's always hard to put a finger on is the feelings of ownership. They aren't public with their thoughts like Jerry Jones or Mark Cuban, so we can't be sure how much weight they put behind things like injuries, close losses, etc., and whether they are exhausted by the "In The Hunt" dance. It does feel like the national embarrassment of being the team that lost to the Lions combined with an ugly loss might be enough for them to make a statement to say: This is not good enough. But I keep going back and forth. As long as there's a chance to make the playoffs, they might give Mike Zimmer that opportunity to pull a rabbit out of a hat, especially with two games against the Chicago Bears coming up.

Sam: There is no more logical time to make a move than after a Thursday game when you have 11 days before playing Chicago on Monday night. An ugly loss would certainly represent a bottoming out and offer ownership an opening for a change if the Vikings stopped showing the fight that has been good enough to bring them down to the wire every single week. Injuries can’t be blamed as easily now that the defense is much healthier than it was the last two weeks. On the other hand, we just don’t know what criteria the Wilfs are using. This ownership has fired three coaches, largely for different reasons. Mike Tice was let go because of a scandalous 2005 season marred by the Love Boat, even though he went 9-7 with a backup quarterback. Brad Childress lost the locker room in 2010 after going rogue and releasing Randy Moss. Leslie Frazier was beloved by players but had terrible defenses despite his alleged defensive acumen. Zimmer would probably tend to fall closer to the Frazier category (without the same bedside manner), but he also has eight years of history with the Wilfs. There’s probably more loyalty to Zimmer than any of his predecessors, and that makes an in-season move all the harder.

How would the Vikings handle the rest of the season if changes are made in-season?

Matthew: My guess is that Andre Patterson would take over as the head coach and pretty much nothing else would change. There isn’t really anyone else on the staff that you’d be looking for a sneak peak as an interim head coach. It would be more of a reward for a lot of years that Patterson has given to the franchise — give him a chance to win some games and put his name on the radar to be a DC somewhere else next year.

Maybe part of the deal would be to play Kellen Mond in Week 18 but that would pretty much ensure that Cousins was going to be traded in the offseason. I don’t think they would do that. Otherwise they already have players for the future in the lineup, especially on defense. We’re seeing guys like Kenny Willekes, D.J. Wonnum, Armon Watts, James Lynch, etc. get plenty of snaps already. They could try to work in Cam Bynum more, give Cam Bynum all the work over Bashaud Breeland and play Wyatt Davis. Other than that, it would be a real drag to the end.

Sam: The Vikings could find themselves in a pretty awkward situation with Mike Zimmer’s son Adam — presumably a little peeved about his dad being fired — having to call the defensive plays. But Adam Zimmer also needs to prove he can call plays for his future job prospects, and this would give him a four-game sample.

Klint Kubiak’s response would also be pretty interesting. He’d suddenly be calling the offense without any assurances of returning or having an entrenched head coach to mollify. Would we see anything different as he looks to build his case to remain a coordinator somewhere? Maybe, maybe not.

On offense, I’d want to see Davis for sure, more Kene Nwangwu, and Mond in the second half versus Chicago in Week 18. On defense, increase the role for Patrick Jones II and start Cameron Dantzler instead of Breeland. He’s got to be part of the equation next year.

If Zimmer and/or Spielman are removed, is Kirk Cousins suddenly a lame duck?

Matthew: If I’m on the committee to find the next GM and head coaching candidates, my first question is: What do you want to do at quarterback? If the answer is that they have a magic potion or formula to win in 2022 around a $45 million cap hit or they think another three-year extension will be different because they are in charge, I’m out. That would tell me they don’t see the entire picture. It isn’t just about what Cousins does as a quarterback. The dimensions to this include a potential first-round pick they could get back to jump start a rebuild of the defense — a real rebuild, not hopes and dreams at the bottom of the free agency barrel. There’s the matter that nobody has been able to build around his contract. Remember, he was expensive in Washington, too. If these things were done in a bubble, it would be fine to stay the course.

If they are dead set on sticking with him because they don’t believe that the next draft class is good enough (remember when the fifth quarterback picked in the 2018 and 2021 drafts had the most success?), then there needs to be a clear-cut plan to build an offense that’s reflective of the 2018 Rams or 2016 Falcons. Do absolutely everything you can to make the quarterback the best version of himself and then we’ll see what happens. It’s hard for me to believe that different results would come considering he’s played with two elite receivers, good OLs in Washington, good defenses and running games in Minnesota (2018/2019) and still come out with the same results, but it isn’t the most insane thing I’ve ever heard to attempt to create circumstances that have worked for other similar quarterbacks.

Sam: If people get fired, odds are the Vikings missed the playoffs, which means they lost a couple games the rest of the way, which means that Kirk Cousins is right at the .500 mark as the Minnesota quarterback with one playoff berth in four years. That feels like enough of a sample size not to do anything foolish like re-up his contract for another term. Besides, most new regimes would prefer grooming their own guy anyway, especially if the head coach is offensive-minded.

The way I see it the Vikings would have two options: 1) Shop Cousins as a one-year rental by offering to convert some of his cap hit to signing bonus and eating those dollars, making his salary more palatable for buyers. That would not only allow the buyer to spend more to build around their rental quarterback, it would increase the possibility of landing a high-round draft pick in return. 2) Play out the string with Cousins and get excited about the money you’ll have in 2023 free agency. Use 2022 to work in young defensive pieces on defense — which can’t get much worse than it’s been — and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle with contract-year Cousins, who will still have Justin Jefferson (cheap), Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn (cheap), Irv Smith Jr. (cheap), Dalvin Cook, Brian O’Neill, Christian Darrisaw (cheap) and Alexander Mattison (cheap). If the results are overwhelming good, nobody’s going to be upset about delaying the development of your future quarterback. If the results are bad, you are flush with cash the following spring and can build around a young quarterback like the Patriots did with Mac Jones.

If the Vikings make the playoffs… then what?

Sam: I’m certainly not rushing to extend Cousins, but I take stock of how they finished the season. Was it a five-game winning streak to end the year? That’s impressive and some combination of a great coaching job and great quarterback play. Was it a 3-2 finish where they had to backpedal across the finish line and scoreboard watch? Then I’m not reading into it.

Shy of two playoff wins on the road and an NFC Championship Game berth, I’m not letting a 7-seed playoff appearance put lipstick on the 2021 Vikings pig.

Matthew: I agree that it depends on how it looks. I’m not sure that a 13-10 win over the Chicago Bears to get into the postseason at 8-9 is a compelling argument for everybody to get another shot at this thing next year. Going 4-1 or 5-0 down the stretch would mean they would put together at least one impressive win, either against the Rams at home or Green Bay on the road. If they were to win a postseason game after that, it might change some minds.

But isn’t that the problem with riding the wave? If everyone’s future is living and dying with each week, then you’re just going whatever way the wind blows. They should decide now whether they think A) that it’s been a really strange and random year and they believe that in 1,000 simulations of this seasons, 900 of them would have come out with this team being a legitimate contender and they just so happened to land on the unlucky 100 or B) that they’ve seen this movie before and do not want to see it again, regardless of a hot finish to the season.

Yes, the caveat to that is the NFC Championship Game. If they pulled some kind of 2012 Ravens thing where they got healthy and hot in the playoffs and went deep into the postseason, there wouldn’t be any reason for an overhaul.

How will we view the 2021 season in three years?

Sam: All signs point to 2021 joining 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2013 in the Seasons That Brought About Change Club. I tend to think we’ll view it a little like 2013, when the Vikings defense also couldn’t stop anyone at the end of games. Minnesota lost four games in the final seconds that season — and in the moment those losses seemed devastating. But years later fans only viewed it as a failed 5-10-1 season. The 2021 season may age similarly if the record doesn’t improve, with the pain of last-second losses fading and the memory of unfulfilled expectations lingering.

Matthew: It’ll either be viewed as the best thing that could have happened to them, similar to when the Buffalo Bills moved on from Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor and brought in Sean McDermott and Josh Allen or it’ll be seen as the last time they were competitive because the new regime failed. Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge haven’t exactly carried the torch in the post-Coughlin era and the Jets have done very little since they canned Todd Bowles. But maybe those teams would still say it was worth the risk rather than being caught in purgatory.

And hey, with this team, we should always leave the door open to something crazy happening and us talking about Zimmer and Cousins’s crazy run deep into the playoffs that was sparked by a loss to Detroit. I’d never count anything out.