Post by MidwinterViking on Nov 9, 2021 19:12:59 GMT -6
I have no clue here how to read the Chargers. In 8 games they have:
- Played poorly against below average teams
- Played great against good teams
- Their run defense has gotten trampled like squirrels standing up to an SUV, and they’ve won (and lost)
- Blown late leads
- Made great comebacks
They have absolutely no consistency. I put every game book stat into a comparison to see which one had the strongest correlation with Chargers winning, and the answer was… Not yards, not passing%, no Rush YPA, not interceptions… it is 4th downs attempted (that’s not very helpful).
This is also fascinating game because the Chargers and Vikings actually have 3 common opponents already: Browns, Cowboys & Ravens. The results couldn’t be more different:
Cowboys: The Chargers were hopeless against the Dallas rushing attack giving up nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs. The Vikings shut down the Rushing attack and get carved up through the air.
Browns: Charges played the Browns in 47-42 shootout vs the Vikings 14-7 defensive struggle.
Ravens: The Chargers held Lamar Jackson to 140 yards passing, got 2 interceptions off him on the way to getting their doors blown off by 28.
Keys That Aren’t The Key
To figure out how to beat the Chargers, let’s start narrowing things down that are important but not the game differentiation.
Passing Attack – The chargers have significantly out passed their opponents on the season. They have nearly 700 more passing yards than their opponents and have only been outs gained through the air by 1 team (Interestingly this was the mac Jones - not Prescott, Mahomes, Jackson, or Derek Carr). On two occasions they have outgained opponents by more than 200 yards, but both of those game they were tied or trailed in the 4th, so it didn’t do them any good.
Rushing Attack – The exact opposite of their passing attack, they are consistently run over, while they have a very poor rush attack, with a nearly -500 yard rush difference on the season. The only team they have out rushed is once again the Patriots. In fact, 3 times an opponent has gained more than 100 yards more than the Chargers on the ground and lost.
A simple path to “How to beat the Chargers” would be to beat them is a passing duel – but this doesn’t happen consistently enough and only accounts for one of their losses, so this isn’t a realistic path, but it is at least a path.
Players are Also Not the Answer
Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are stable quantities, they produce consistently through wins and losses. The Chargers biggest variable is Mike Williams. Williams has had massive games in 2 of the Chargers 3 big wins vs good teams. Williams was also shut down in most of the Chargers losses but there were exceptions to both trends.
So holding Mike Williams in Check would be a good thing, but not THE thing.
So what is the way to beat the Chargers?
In the absence of anything obvious, going back to that non-obvious correlation between going for it on 4th down and winning vs the Chargers. This revealed an interesting, but not yet conclusive stat.
NFL has had 386 4th down plays = 12 per team or ~1.3 per team per game
Chargers have attempted 17; 4th highest in the NFL.
This chart is interesting:
4th Down Attempts
There’s more though. In weeks 1-3 the Chargers attempted only 2 total 4th downs. In weeks 4 – 9, they attempted 15 in 5 games, 3 per game, more than double the NFL average. I could have been higher too, against the Patriots the Chargers only attempted 1, but that was because they never really had an opportunity (they only passed up 1 chance, a 4th & 6 at their own 27 in a 1 score game; going for this would have been an objectively terrible choice)
These 4th downs aren’t short 1 yard pile pushes either; the Chargers are averaging 4.8 yards per 4th down (high than league average of 4.3) and converting at a much higher than average rate.
So the Chargers go for it, does that mean anything? Maybe, the stat with the 2nd strongest correlation to winning is Field Goal Attempts: the team that attempts more FGs in a Chargers game tends to lose. So go for it and win, kick FGs and lose. There’s the answer.
How to Beat the Chargers
The Running game will need to work, and the passing offense and defense will need to keep things close. But the Vikings will really need to do one of two things:
Win 3rd down so convincingly, that 4th downs are hopeless (This is what the Patriots did). OR
Be prepared to face 3-4 critical plays in the game. Win those plays and win the game.
After the Ravens game, this doesn’t make me feel better, but it’s at least an answer to watch for.
- Played poorly against below average teams
- Played great against good teams
- Their run defense has gotten trampled like squirrels standing up to an SUV, and they’ve won (and lost)
- Blown late leads
- Made great comebacks
They have absolutely no consistency. I put every game book stat into a comparison to see which one had the strongest correlation with Chargers winning, and the answer was… Not yards, not passing%, no Rush YPA, not interceptions… it is 4th downs attempted (that’s not very helpful).
This is also fascinating game because the Chargers and Vikings actually have 3 common opponents already: Browns, Cowboys & Ravens. The results couldn’t be more different:
Cowboys: The Chargers were hopeless against the Dallas rushing attack giving up nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs. The Vikings shut down the Rushing attack and get carved up through the air.
Browns: Charges played the Browns in 47-42 shootout vs the Vikings 14-7 defensive struggle.
Ravens: The Chargers held Lamar Jackson to 140 yards passing, got 2 interceptions off him on the way to getting their doors blown off by 28.
Keys That Aren’t The Key
To figure out how to beat the Chargers, let’s start narrowing things down that are important but not the game differentiation.
Passing Attack – The chargers have significantly out passed their opponents on the season. They have nearly 700 more passing yards than their opponents and have only been outs gained through the air by 1 team (Interestingly this was the mac Jones - not Prescott, Mahomes, Jackson, or Derek Carr). On two occasions they have outgained opponents by more than 200 yards, but both of those game they were tied or trailed in the 4th, so it didn’t do them any good.
Rushing Attack – The exact opposite of their passing attack, they are consistently run over, while they have a very poor rush attack, with a nearly -500 yard rush difference on the season. The only team they have out rushed is once again the Patriots. In fact, 3 times an opponent has gained more than 100 yards more than the Chargers on the ground and lost.
A simple path to “How to beat the Chargers” would be to beat them is a passing duel – but this doesn’t happen consistently enough and only accounts for one of their losses, so this isn’t a realistic path, but it is at least a path.
Players are Also Not the Answer
Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are stable quantities, they produce consistently through wins and losses. The Chargers biggest variable is Mike Williams. Williams has had massive games in 2 of the Chargers 3 big wins vs good teams. Williams was also shut down in most of the Chargers losses but there were exceptions to both trends.
So holding Mike Williams in Check would be a good thing, but not THE thing.
So what is the way to beat the Chargers?
In the absence of anything obvious, going back to that non-obvious correlation between going for it on 4th down and winning vs the Chargers. This revealed an interesting, but not yet conclusive stat.
NFL has had 386 4th down plays = 12 per team or ~1.3 per team per game
Chargers have attempted 17; 4th highest in the NFL.
This chart is interesting:
4th Down Attempts
There’s more though. In weeks 1-3 the Chargers attempted only 2 total 4th downs. In weeks 4 – 9, they attempted 15 in 5 games, 3 per game, more than double the NFL average. I could have been higher too, against the Patriots the Chargers only attempted 1, but that was because they never really had an opportunity (they only passed up 1 chance, a 4th & 6 at their own 27 in a 1 score game; going for this would have been an objectively terrible choice)
These 4th downs aren’t short 1 yard pile pushes either; the Chargers are averaging 4.8 yards per 4th down (high than league average of 4.3) and converting at a much higher than average rate.
So the Chargers go for it, does that mean anything? Maybe, the stat with the 2nd strongest correlation to winning is Field Goal Attempts: the team that attempts more FGs in a Chargers game tends to lose. So go for it and win, kick FGs and lose. There’s the answer.
How to Beat the Chargers
The Running game will need to work, and the passing offense and defense will need to keep things close. But the Vikings will really need to do one of two things:
Win 3rd down so convincingly, that 4th downs are hopeless (This is what the Patriots did). OR
Be prepared to face 3-4 critical plays in the game. Win those plays and win the game.
After the Ravens game, this doesn’t make me feel better, but it’s at least an answer to watch for.
... and neither is this Chris guy.