College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 3, 2021 13:02:26 GMT -6

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Post by Uncle on Nov 3, 2021 13:02:26 GMT -6

The first CFP Rankings came out yesterday, 11/2; you can view them here: link.

If you don't want to click on the link, here are the initial rankings heading into Week 10 (only going down to #15):

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Michigan St
4. Oregon
5. Ohio St
6. Cincinnati
7. Michigan
8. Oklahoma
9. Wake Forest
10. Notre Dame
11. Oklahoma St
12. Baylor
13. Auburn
14. Texas A&M
15. BYU

My initial thoughts:

- The obvious "elephant in the room" is Cincinnati's "snubbing" down to 6th after being ranked in the Top 4 in the AP Poll. They needed to rack up "style" points because they don't play enough opponents in the Power 5 Conferences and they haven't been beating their conference opponents as much as they needed too. That road win @ Notre Dame didn't go as far as they wanted it to go, and SMU losing last weekend really hurts as they have no one left on their schedule that's ranked. The only way for Cincinnati to get in at this point is for 'Bama, Mich St, Oregon and Ohio St to all have 2 losses - which is actually possible.

- Even if Oregon stays there with 1 loss, I'm not sure they'll hang onto that #4 spot, especially if Ohio St loses again. If Michigan wins out (including beating Ohio St), they'll leapfrog into the #4 spot and possibly higher if Mich St has two losses. The BIG10 as a whole will sort itself out the next 3 weeks as Ohio St/Michigan/Mich St/Penn St all play each other (ie, the BIG10 "gauntlet").

- As long as Pittsburgh remains ranked, it's possible for an undefeated Wake Forest to crash the CFP party, too. If both Wake Forest & Pitt win out, they'll meet in the ACC Championship and if Wake wins that over a ranked/decent Pitt team, that might propel them to #4. The Committee will certainly put an undefeated Wake Forest in the CFP ahead of an undefeated Cincinnati.

- I can't see a BIGXII team in the CFP this year. Obviously if Oklahoma wins out, then yes, but they have tough road games @ Baylor and @ Oklahoma St left and I can't see them winning both with how many nail-biters they've had this season.

beckmt Hall of Fame Inductee Posts: 12,214 Likes: 1,584	College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 3, 2021 13:24:31 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by beckmt on Nov 3, 2021 13:24:31 GMT -6 Don't look now, gophers are at 20 no

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 3, 2021 13:58:33 GMT -6

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Post by Uncle on Nov 3, 2021 13:58:33 GMT -6

I'm surprised the Committee had Minnesota in there at all considering their loss to Bowling Green, who is 3-6 overall and tied for last place in the MAC. Technically Minnesota is leading the BIG10 Western Division with a 4-1 Conference record, but they have two, tough games left that will determine who goes to the BIG10 Championship: @ Iowa and vs Wisconsin to end the season.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,540 Likes: 31,468 Fan Since: 1998	College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 3, 2021 17:35:47 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Nov 3, 2021 17:35:47 GMT -6 Nov 3, 2021 13:24:31 GMT -6 beckmt said: Don't look now, gophers are at 20 no

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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 4, 2021 15:59:46 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by beckmt on Nov 4, 2021 15:59:46 GMT -6

Nov 3, 2021 13:58:33 GMT -6 Uncle said:

I'm surprised the Committee had Minnesota in there at all considering their loss to Bowling Green, who is 3-6 overall and tied for last place in the MAC. Technically Minnesota is leading the BIG10 Western Division with a 4-1 Conference record, but they have two, tough games left that will determine who goes to the BIG10 Championship: @ Iowa and vs Wisconsin to end the season.

I did not think we have Iowa, Wisconsin back to back. We have Indiana inbetween

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 12, 2021 16:32:27 GMT -6

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Post by Uncle on Nov 12, 2021 16:32:27 GMT -6

Here are the updated CFP rankings as of Tues, 11/9:

https://allstatesugarbowl.org/wp-content/uploads/CFP-Rankings-11-09-21.jpg

Thoughts:

- Michigan over Michigan St is the biggest head-scratcher considering MSU beat Michigan head-to-head.
- Cincinnati is at #5 and ahead of Michigan, MSU, & Oklahoma, but they still probably need teams to lose 1 more game to get in
- UTSA (University of Texas San Antonio) gettin' some love at #23

Games this weekend with CFP implications:

#19 Purdue @ #4 Ohio St: if the Buckeyes lose, they're out
#8 Oklahoma @ #13 Baylor: if the Sooners lose, the BIG XII will not be represented in the CFP
#6 Michigan @ Penn St: Wolverines are done if they lose at Happy Valley
#11 Texas A&M @ #15 Ole Miss: if most teams at the top have 2 losses (other than Georgia/Cincinnati), then if Aggies win out they have the best chance to get in of the 2-loss teams, IMO. They need Auburn to beat 'Bama in the Iron Bowl on 11/27.

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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 12, 2021 23:27:31 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2021 23:27:31 GMT -6

Nov 12, 2021 16:32:27 GMT -6 Uncle said:

Michigan over Michigan St is the biggest head-scratcher considering MSU beat Michigan head-to-head.

That is why I don't fool with college much no more. Since this new playoff system came about It's a popularity contest. Michigan St. beat Michigan, and they both have a loss. So how is Michigan ranked higher it makes zero sense?

Last Edit: Nov 12, 2021 23:31:09 GMT -6 by Deleted

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 14, 2021 9:50:37 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Uncle on Nov 14, 2021 9:50:37 GMT -6

After Week 11, we're probably lookin' at this scenario for the 4 CFP teams:

1. Georgia: probably locked-in, regardless if they lose the SEC Championship game.
2. BIG 10 "gauntlet" winner: Ohio St/Michigan/Michigan St - whomever remains with 1 loss after the next 2 weeks (and wins the BIG 10 title) will be in the CFP.
3. Cincinnati: there will likely be to many teams with 2 losses to leave them out if they stay undefeated. Plus, with Notre Dame winning, that win in South Bend just continues to carry them.
4. Oregon/Alabama: If Oregon loses at Utah next Sunday, that leaves the door wide open for Alabama to get in if they remain at 1-loss. It's even possible Alabama gets in over Cincinnati if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship.

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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 17, 2021 11:36:05 GMT -6

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Post by Uncle on Nov 17, 2021 11:36:05 GMT -6

Here are the updated CFP Rankings as of 11/16/21:

https://allstatesugarbowl.org/wp-content/uploads/CFP-Rankings-11-16-21.jpg

Not much change at all, but there are some big games coming up this weekend (Week 12) that could shake things up...

#3 Oregon @ #23 Utah
It's likely that Oregon will face Utah twice - once this weekend and once more for the PAC12 championship. Utah has had better talent in prior seasons, but they are currently on a roll and playing at home this weekend. If Oregon loses, there's an opening for Cincinnati to get in.

#7 Michigan St @ #4 Ohio St
Basically a CFP "elimination" game of sorts - the loser will have 2 losses and more than likely will be out unless every team behind Georgia/Cincinnati have 2 losses. I question if Michigan State has the defense to handle the offensive weapons that Ohio St has and think the BIG10 will come down to Ohio St @ Michigan the following weekend.

Nebraska @ #15 Wisconsin
The outcome of this games doesn't have any "direct" impact on the Top 4 CFP standings; however, Wisconsin is the leader in the BIG10 "West" division that will face the winner of the Ohio St/Michigan/Michigan St "gauntlet" in the East and they can't afford to stumble down the stretch before the BIG10 championship game. As long as Wisconsin holds steady down the stretch, it'll give the BIG10 East winner another win over a Top 15 team and it may vault them head of someone else into the Top 4. Nebraska is a team that hasn't had a big win all season and they've been close several times. It's entirely possible Nebraska plays hard on the road one last time for Scott Frost (who's likely on his way out).

#21 Arkansas @ #2 Alabama
The Crimson Tide can afford another loss and still beat Auburn next weekend to advance to the SEC Championship and if they beat Georgia, it's possible a 2-loss 'Bama team gets into the Top 4, depending on how things shake out. The only way they can not make it to the SEC Championship is if they lose to Arkansas AND Auburn and Ole Miss wins out. So if 'Bama wins this game, they are guaranteed to make to Atlanta to take on Georgia. While teams that run the ball effectively do give 'Bama fits (look at how successful Florida was earlier this season vs them), I don't believe Arkansas has the chops on defense to hold 'Bama low enough to win a slugfest-style game.

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Nov 25, 2021 11:38:23 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Uncle on Nov 25, 2021 11:38:23 GMT -6

Here are the updated CFP Rankings as of 11/23/21:

https://allstatesugarbowl.org/wp-content/uploads/CFP-Rankings-11-23-21.jpg

The big update is that for the first time ever, a non-Power 5 team - Cincinnati - is ranked in the Top 4. We all know that the loser of this weekend's Ohio St/Michigan game is "out", so that takes away 1 CFP contender and we know Notre Dame can't jump them because of Cincinnati's head-to-head win vs the Fighting Irish (in South Bend) earlier this season. That leaves just Oklahoma St who has to beat Oklahoma twice in consecutive weekends to even have a chance, but Cincinnati also has a ranked team left on their schedule - vs #24 Houston in the Conference USA Championship.

If Cincinnati takes care of business (regardless of the margin of victory) this weekend and next weekend, I just can't see the CFP Committee putting Oklahoma St ahead of them and the Cowboys would certainly have to dominate The Sooners this weekend and next to have a chance.

The only way Notre Dame or Ok St get into the Top 4 is if Alabama loses in the "Iron Bowl" game vs a 6-5 Auburn team - that would open to the door to one of them getting in, regardless if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship.

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Dec 1, 2021 9:33:37 GMT -6 Danchat likes this

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Post by Uncle on Dec 1, 2021 9:33:37 GMT -6

Here are the updated CFP Rankings as of 11/30/21 - the last one before the final version comes out this coming weekend:

https://allstatesugarbowl.org/wp-content/uploads/CFP-Rankings-11-30-21.jpg

I think the most realistic scenario for the Final Four is Georgia beating Alabama in the SEC Championship which would allow Oklahoma St (if they beat Baylor in the BIG XII championship) to get in, and I think Oklahoma St could also leapfrog Cincinnati for the #3 spot which gives us these matchups:

Georgia vs Cincinnati - rematch of last year's Peach Bowl
Michigan vs Oklahoma St - not a sexy matchup (defense vs defense)

If you want to see complete chaos, then if Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati and Oklahoma St all lose their Conference Championship games, the CFP Committee will have a chaotic time picking the Final Four.

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Dec 1, 2021 23:36:21 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2021 23:36:21 GMT -6 GO BEARCATS!

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Dec 4, 2021 22:43:03 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2021 22:43:03 GMT -6 This Iowa ass whooping will be how our playoffs will be if we crawl in LOL! Michigan beat the breaks off Iowa. All the way to the Big 10 championship just to kick a field goal.
	Last Edit: Dec 4, 2021 22:44:36 GMT -6 by Deleted

Uncle
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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Dec 5, 2021 11:38:23 GMT -6

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Post by Uncle on Dec 5, 2021 11:38:23 GMT -6

It's official....

#1 Alabama vs #4 Cincinnati

#2 Michigan vs #3 Georgia

Not much surprise and congrats to Cincinnati for back-to-back undefeated seasons and being the 1st non-Power 5 school to crash the CFP. And we get two new schools into the CFP in Michigan & Cincinnati so that's a good thing, IMO.

As far as the games go, I do think Cincinnati can give 'Bama a game - they do have NFL talent on all 3 levels of their defense. The biggest question mark will be how Cincinnati's OL will hold up against 4 and 5-star players and Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder is going to have to have the game of his life. I do think 'Bama secondary can be exposed if Ridder can have time to expose them.

The other game should be an old-fashioned line-of-scrimmage type of game as both QB's are not very dynamic and both offenses will try to establish the run. I feel like Michigan's offensive playcalling has been really ramped up the past two games (vs Ohio St and vs Iowa) and their big plays have really opened the game up for them.

Both matchups should be fun and entertaining and I look forward to them.

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College Football Playoffs - 2021 Season Dec 5, 2021 19:17:00 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Dec 5, 2021 19:17:00 GMT -6

Dec 5, 2021 11:38:23 GMT -6 Uncle said:

It's official....

#1 Alabama vs #4 Cincinnati

#2 Michigan vs #3 Georgia

Not much surprise and congrats to Cincinnati for back-to-back undefeated seasons and being the 1st non-Power 5 school to crash the CFP. And we get two new schools into the CFP in Michigan & Cincinnati so that's a good thing, IMO.

As far as the games go, I do think Cincinnati can give 'Bama a game - they do have NFL talent on all 3 levels of their defense. The biggest question mark will be how Cincinnati's OL will hold up against 4 and 5-star players and Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder is going to have to have the game of his life. I do think 'Bama secondary can be exposed if Ridder can have time to expose them.

The other game should be an old-fashioned line-of-scrimmage type of game as both QB's are not very dynamic and both offenses will try to establish the run. I feel like Michigan's offensive playcalling has been really ramped up the past two games (vs Ohio St and vs Iowa) and their big plays have really opened the game up for them.

Both matchups should be fun and entertaining and I look forward to them.

With Metchie out. Williams vs. Gardner will be fun to watch