Week 9 - Beat The Ravens Support Group
Nov 1, 2021 16:20:22 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 4 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Nov 1, 2021 16:20:22 GMT -6
I’ll save you some reading: Don’t give Lamar Jackson easy passes. (Last week I made you read over 1,000 words to get to the Dallas conclusion, lesson learned, you’re welcome.)
The Ravens are a weird team to research because so much depends on Lamar Jackson, I can’t look at him like any other QB. Even compared to other mobile QBs like Kyler Murray, Lamar stands out since the Raven use him a designed runner much more often.
Before I dive into what I found, I’ll say that I’m not going to spend much effort analyzing the Ravens Defense. The only game where teams didn’t move the ball pretty well on them was the Broncos game where Bridgewater was injured and Drew Lock came in a succeeded only in demonstrating that he’s not an NFL starter. So, absent another Drew Lock level bed sh*tting by the Vikings offense (like they did against the Cowboys), the Vikings should score enough points to make Jackson’s performance relevant.
First off, I’m going to break down the Jackson into 2 players: RB Lamar & QB Jackson, assigning all his rushing totals to the RB and passing to the QB.
Looking at the yardage RB Lamar gets as a percentage of the team rush totals in each game
@ Raiders: 86 / 189 team rush yards = 46% of the teams rushing total
Chiefs: 107 / 251 = 43%
@ Lions: 25 / 116 = 50%
@ Broncos: 28 / 102 = 27%
Colts: 62 / 86 = 72%
Chargers: 51 / 187 = 27%
Bengals: 88 / 115 = 77%
For QB Jackson, I’m going to use a very simple metric: completion %. I’m not using something more advanced like passer rating or QBR since those incorporate TDs, and since RB Lamar can run those in, I don’t want to double count them. By game:
@ Raiders: 63%
Chiefs: 69%
@ Lions: 41.9%
@ Broncos: 60%
Colts: 86%
Chargers: 70%
Bengals: 48%
At 5-2, the Ravens don’t have a lot of losses to look at for trends. So I’m going to use scoring margin with the theory that the more you outscore a team, the more likely you are to win (logic!). I’m also going to skew this number a bit because beating a good team is more impressive than beating a bad team. So I’m going to add a 2pt bonus to the margin of victory for every win the opponent has right now. For example:
Vs Colts: +6 margin of victory + (3 Colts wins * 2 pts per win) = 12 points towards the likelihood of the Ravens of winning.
That gives me a result for each game.
RB Lamar vs. QB Jackson
To get a data point on how Lamar Jackson split up his day, I’m going to go a ration of (Pass Completion %) / (% of team rush yards). This is a made up metric, but basically it will be:
Smaller number = RB Lamar dominated running
Bigger number = QB Jackson had a great day passing
Middle number = he was equally god / bad at both
How much of a correlation does that have with the Ravens likelihood of winning? A lot.
That’s so closely coordinated with win % I questioned myself if it was just coincidence, so I tried to test my theory.
Did the correlation hold with a pure scoring margin (ignoring my bonus points for good teams)? Yes, but not as closely.
Was there another metric that had this kind of relationship? I looked at whatever I could think of: Team rush yards, total passing yards, QBR / Passer rating, opponents metrics – nothing was even close.
Then I gave this a guy check: does it make sense? I’m starting to think it does. If Jackson is hitting easy passes, running lanes will be there for any RB. If he does see anything, he runs.
Look at one more thing – If QB Jackson is having a great day, does RB Lamar have a quiet day? The answer was a surprising: no, not really.
Do you see a correlation there? I sure don’t. Then more importantly should I expect to see one? Considering how dynamin Lamar Jackson is and how seamlessly he switches between runner and passer, teams might be able to stop his running, passing, both or neither. Because of that, his run pass result would be expected to be all over.
The Colts game Lamar Jackson balled out, dominating passing and rushing, but it wasn’t a great result. While dominating the rushing attack, the Ravens didn’t score a TD until late in the 3rd Quarter.
What this all means is Jackson is best when he relies on his supporting cast: distributing the balls to WRs (high accuracy) and handing off to RBs instead of keeping it himself (low run %).
How to Beat the Ravens
Jackson will chase glory, let him. Take away easy throws, even if he runs for a huge number of yards. Make him take high risk, high reward deep shots, sure, some might hit, but the Ravens defense is bad enough that we should be able to match the lower success rate. Go ahead and blitz the heck out of him, give him happy feet and get him running, passing is where the money is.
The Ravens are a weird team to research because so much depends on Lamar Jackson, I can’t look at him like any other QB. Even compared to other mobile QBs like Kyler Murray, Lamar stands out since the Raven use him a designed runner much more often.
Before I dive into what I found, I’ll say that I’m not going to spend much effort analyzing the Ravens Defense. The only game where teams didn’t move the ball pretty well on them was the Broncos game where Bridgewater was injured and Drew Lock came in a succeeded only in demonstrating that he’s not an NFL starter. So, absent another Drew Lock level bed sh*tting by the Vikings offense (like they did against the Cowboys), the Vikings should score enough points to make Jackson’s performance relevant.
First off, I’m going to break down the Jackson into 2 players: RB Lamar & QB Jackson, assigning all his rushing totals to the RB and passing to the QB.
Looking at the yardage RB Lamar gets as a percentage of the team rush totals in each game
@ Raiders: 86 / 189 team rush yards = 46% of the teams rushing total
Chiefs: 107 / 251 = 43%
@ Lions: 25 / 116 = 50%
@ Broncos: 28 / 102 = 27%
Colts: 62 / 86 = 72%
Chargers: 51 / 187 = 27%
Bengals: 88 / 115 = 77%
For QB Jackson, I’m going to use a very simple metric: completion %. I’m not using something more advanced like passer rating or QBR since those incorporate TDs, and since RB Lamar can run those in, I don’t want to double count them. By game:
@ Raiders: 63%
Chiefs: 69%
@ Lions: 41.9%
@ Broncos: 60%
Colts: 86%
Chargers: 70%
Bengals: 48%
At 5-2, the Ravens don’t have a lot of losses to look at for trends. So I’m going to use scoring margin with the theory that the more you outscore a team, the more likely you are to win (logic!). I’m also going to skew this number a bit because beating a good team is more impressive than beating a bad team. So I’m going to add a 2pt bonus to the margin of victory for every win the opponent has right now. For example:
Vs Colts: +6 margin of victory + (3 Colts wins * 2 pts per win) = 12 points towards the likelihood of the Ravens of winning.
That gives me a result for each game.
RB Lamar vs. QB Jackson
To get a data point on how Lamar Jackson split up his day, I’m going to go a ration of (Pass Completion %) / (% of team rush yards). This is a made up metric, but basically it will be:
Smaller number = RB Lamar dominated running
Bigger number = QB Jackson had a great day passing
Middle number = he was equally god / bad at both
How much of a correlation does that have with the Ravens likelihood of winning? A lot.
That’s so closely coordinated with win % I questioned myself if it was just coincidence, so I tried to test my theory.
Did the correlation hold with a pure scoring margin (ignoring my bonus points for good teams)? Yes, but not as closely.
Was there another metric that had this kind of relationship? I looked at whatever I could think of: Team rush yards, total passing yards, QBR / Passer rating, opponents metrics – nothing was even close.
Then I gave this a guy check: does it make sense? I’m starting to think it does. If Jackson is hitting easy passes, running lanes will be there for any RB. If he does see anything, he runs.
Look at one more thing – If QB Jackson is having a great day, does RB Lamar have a quiet day? The answer was a surprising: no, not really.
Do you see a correlation there? I sure don’t. Then more importantly should I expect to see one? Considering how dynamin Lamar Jackson is and how seamlessly he switches between runner and passer, teams might be able to stop his running, passing, both or neither. Because of that, his run pass result would be expected to be all over.
The Colts game Lamar Jackson balled out, dominating passing and rushing, but it wasn’t a great result. While dominating the rushing attack, the Ravens didn’t score a TD until late in the 3rd Quarter.
What this all means is Jackson is best when he relies on his supporting cast: distributing the balls to WRs (high accuracy) and handing off to RBs instead of keeping it himself (low run %).
How to Beat the Ravens
Jackson will chase glory, let him. Take away easy throws, even if he runs for a huge number of yards. Make him take high risk, high reward deep shots, sure, some might hit, but the Ravens defense is bad enough that we should be able to match the lower success rate. Go ahead and blitz the heck out of him, give him happy feet and get him running, passing is where the money is.
plus the gun shy offense is wack.
... and neither is this Chris guy.
