Post by Purple Pain on Nov 10, 2021 18:24:54 GMT -6
Purple Insider: The Vikings' offensive principles aren't working like they used to
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/the-vikings-offensive-principles
“I think a lot of the things we talked about this offseason,” receiver Adam Thielen said, “which we do every offseason or going into training camp, of how you win games in this league, protecting the football, which we've done. Run the ball, which we've done. Convert third downs, which is probably one of the biggest areas where we haven't. … It's one of those things where everybody's trying to wrap their head around why.”
The Vikings could be 5-3 with a couple different bounces and may not be subjected to the scrutiny. But it would still be deserved. What 2021 indicates (and, frankly, 2020 as well) is that the Vikings’ principles are not suited to be a one-size-fits-all formula for every roster; not when coupled with an average defense. Their style is adequate for staying in games; not for finishing them or occasionally winning them convincingly.
Since the start of 2020, the Vikings only have two wins by more than a possession. They had eight of those in 2019 alone.
The close games are wearing on the Vikings, physically and emotionally. Their 98 snaps played defensively at Baltimore on Sunday left them licking their wounds, and their seventh game of eight that came down to the final minute left the head coach morose.
“Personally, it’s very frustrating,” Zimmer said Monday. “And it’s frustrating for the players. They fight their rear ends off like crazy, and it comes down to those situations, and you really feel like we’ve got a smart team. And typically when you go out there and you win those games at the end, it changes the attitude, it changes the complexion of the season and everything else. So that part is frustrating, yeah. We fight like crazy and can’t get it done in the end.”
It stands to reason that Zimmer is scratching his head at why the usual methods have betrayed the Vikings through the first eight games of the season. Recent Vikings teams have often lost games because of Kirk Cousins turnovers, but that’s been the furthest thing from a problem in 2021. Minnesota has a league-low two interceptions thrown, and Cousins has yet to lose a fumble all season.
Turnover-free football usually translates to wins. Turnover-free plus at least two takeaways almost ensures it. By that criteria, teams are 31-4 this season. Three of those losses belong to Minnesota: at Arizona, vs. Dallas and at Baltimore. They are just the third team in NFL history to lose three games in a season that way, and the first in 30 years.
Cousins’ refusal to make moderately-risky throws is becoming a detriment that is offsetting the benefit of not turning the ball over. The quarterback’s percentage of aggressive throws, per Next Gen Stats, ranks 25th. He’s right next to Sam Darnold. Pro Football Focus agrees, ranking him 25th in Big Time Throws percentage.
With a scoring percentage that ranks just 17th in the league and the third-most three-and-outs in the league entering Week 9, the risk-averse approach is not serving the Vikings well as it leaves stars Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen under-utilized.
This is not the 2006 Vikings offense we’re talking about.
“You can look at it from so many ways that it just makes it more frustrating, head-scratching,” said Thielen, “We know we have the guys, we know we have the quarterback, we know we have the skill-position guys, we know we have the offensive line, we know our coaches are busting their tails to do whatever it takes, but it's kind of getting old. It's getting old, the talk about that. I know the fans are done with it, us coming in here every single week and saying, 'We have the guys, we've just got to go out and execute.' So I don't really know what to say, because that's the same thing each week.”
It’s basically a cliche at this point that Cousins does his best work out of play-action, which has always been a panacea when things aren’t going well. There’s been a narrative through the first half of the season that the Vikings aren’t calling it as much, but that’s not true. They just haven’t been as effective.
Minnesota has attempted 70 play-action passes through eight games, 13 more than at this point last season when the Vikings had the exact same record but the offense was producing at a better clip.
Cousins Play Action 2020 (through Week 9): 33-57, 590 yds, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 111.1 rating
Cousins Play Action 2021 (through Week 9): 50-70, 537 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 100.7 rating
The yards per completion out of play-action is more than seven yards better in the above sample from last season, indicating more checkdowns and fewer explosive plays this year.
“A lot of people are protecting against the boots on us and quarterbacks getting out of the pocket,” Zimmer said.
When your offense has as many dependencies as the Vikings’, yes, defenses are going to adapt. Take away the play-action, and you’ve taken away the heartbeat of the unit.
Take away the run, and you’ve stripped the offense of its soul. That’s what defenses have done much more frequently than the raw totals would have you believe. The Vikings are ninth in total rushing yards this season, but their run success rate stands third-last in the NFL. Run success is defined as gaining 40 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third down.
Inefficient decision-making on run plays is leading to tougher play-action situations and a more timid Cousins. It’s all connected. Yet Zimmer and the Vikings don’t seem to know another way.
“Obviously, when you have some scheme issues, you always try to fix it and change it and do some things there,” Zimmer said. “But I keep talking to our guys about, ‘Do the things we do good and stick with it,’ and continue to build off of those things as opposed to throwing everything out the window and starting new. It’s not to that point.”
It’s a taboo word to use in Vikings circles these days, but it sounds like tweaks are all we’ll be seeing in the near future.
Drastic changes to any team’s offense at the midway point of the season are probably unrealistic, doubly so when the existing foundation is so set in stone.
The Vikings could be 5-3 with a couple different bounces and may not be subjected to the scrutiny. But it would still be deserved. What 2021 indicates (and, frankly, 2020 as well) is that the Vikings’ principles are not suited to be a one-size-fits-all formula for every roster; not when coupled with an average defense. Their style is adequate for staying in games; not for finishing them or occasionally winning them convincingly.
Since the start of 2020, the Vikings only have two wins by more than a possession. They had eight of those in 2019 alone.
The close games are wearing on the Vikings, physically and emotionally. Their 98 snaps played defensively at Baltimore on Sunday left them licking their wounds, and their seventh game of eight that came down to the final minute left the head coach morose.
“Personally, it’s very frustrating,” Zimmer said Monday. “And it’s frustrating for the players. They fight their rear ends off like crazy, and it comes down to those situations, and you really feel like we’ve got a smart team. And typically when you go out there and you win those games at the end, it changes the attitude, it changes the complexion of the season and everything else. So that part is frustrating, yeah. We fight like crazy and can’t get it done in the end.”
It stands to reason that Zimmer is scratching his head at why the usual methods have betrayed the Vikings through the first eight games of the season. Recent Vikings teams have often lost games because of Kirk Cousins turnovers, but that’s been the furthest thing from a problem in 2021. Minnesota has a league-low two interceptions thrown, and Cousins has yet to lose a fumble all season.
Turnover-free football usually translates to wins. Turnover-free plus at least two takeaways almost ensures it. By that criteria, teams are 31-4 this season. Three of those losses belong to Minnesota: at Arizona, vs. Dallas and at Baltimore. They are just the third team in NFL history to lose three games in a season that way, and the first in 30 years.
Cousins’ refusal to make moderately-risky throws is becoming a detriment that is offsetting the benefit of not turning the ball over. The quarterback’s percentage of aggressive throws, per Next Gen Stats, ranks 25th. He’s right next to Sam Darnold. Pro Football Focus agrees, ranking him 25th in Big Time Throws percentage.
With a scoring percentage that ranks just 17th in the league and the third-most three-and-outs in the league entering Week 9, the risk-averse approach is not serving the Vikings well as it leaves stars Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen under-utilized.
This is not the 2006 Vikings offense we’re talking about.
“You can look at it from so many ways that it just makes it more frustrating, head-scratching,” said Thielen, “We know we have the guys, we know we have the quarterback, we know we have the skill-position guys, we know we have the offensive line, we know our coaches are busting their tails to do whatever it takes, but it's kind of getting old. It's getting old, the talk about that. I know the fans are done with it, us coming in here every single week and saying, 'We have the guys, we've just got to go out and execute.' So I don't really know what to say, because that's the same thing each week.”
It’s basically a cliche at this point that Cousins does his best work out of play-action, which has always been a panacea when things aren’t going well. There’s been a narrative through the first half of the season that the Vikings aren’t calling it as much, but that’s not true. They just haven’t been as effective.
Minnesota has attempted 70 play-action passes through eight games, 13 more than at this point last season when the Vikings had the exact same record but the offense was producing at a better clip.
Cousins Play Action 2020 (through Week 9): 33-57, 590 yds, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 111.1 rating
Cousins Play Action 2021 (through Week 9): 50-70, 537 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 100.7 rating
The yards per completion out of play-action is more than seven yards better in the above sample from last season, indicating more checkdowns and fewer explosive plays this year.
“A lot of people are protecting against the boots on us and quarterbacks getting out of the pocket,” Zimmer said.
When your offense has as many dependencies as the Vikings’, yes, defenses are going to adapt. Take away the play-action, and you’ve taken away the heartbeat of the unit.
Take away the run, and you’ve stripped the offense of its soul. That’s what defenses have done much more frequently than the raw totals would have you believe. The Vikings are ninth in total rushing yards this season, but their run success rate stands third-last in the NFL. Run success is defined as gaining 40 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent on third down.
Inefficient decision-making on run plays is leading to tougher play-action situations and a more timid Cousins. It’s all connected. Yet Zimmer and the Vikings don’t seem to know another way.
“Obviously, when you have some scheme issues, you always try to fix it and change it and do some things there,” Zimmer said. “But I keep talking to our guys about, ‘Do the things we do good and stick with it,’ and continue to build off of those things as opposed to throwing everything out the window and starting new. It’s not to that point.”
It’s a taboo word to use in Vikings circles these days, but it sounds like tweaks are all we’ll be seeing in the near future.
Drastic changes to any team’s offense at the midway point of the season are probably unrealistic, doubly so when the existing foundation is so set in stone.
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/the-vikings-offensive-principles
... and neither is this Chris guy.