Patrick Peterson Out - Dantzler In!

Dantzler has only played in three games so far this season. He’s done pretty well when he’s seen the field, receiving a 67.9 grade from PFF on 113 snaps. But questions about his maturity and work ethic have kept him from returning to the starting lineup until now. Some believe that his impressive rookie season may have made Dantzler too comfortable heading into the offseason. But with Peterson’s injury and the decision to start Dantzler, not Boyd, it appears that the coaching staff has put the ball in Dantzler’s court.

This wouldn’t be the first time a cornerback has had to work his way into Zimmer’s good graces and the starting lineup. Trae Waynes, the 2015 first-round pick, had to wait a full season before becoming a regular starter. Waynes wasn’t on the bench because of attitude issues. Zimmer has never been one to rush rookies into the starting lineup. Waynes probably wasn’t expecting solely to be a special teams player when he came out of college, but he was able to hone his tackling skills on punt coverage — a concern scouts had going into the draft.

In 2016, Waynes began rotating into the defensive lineup but couldn’t seize the job from 38-year-old Terence Newman until the second half of the year. Once he entered the starting lineup, though, Waynes became an underrated CB2. He was part of the No. 1-ranked defense in 2017, contributing to a stout run defense. He posted tackling grades of 86.5 and 84.4 in 2016 and 2018, respectively. He must have made an impression on the Cincinnati Bengals when he hit free agency following the 2019 season, signing a three-year, $42 million deal. We can discuss that contract some other time.

Mackensie Alexander, a 2016 second-round pick, faced a situation even more similar to what Dantzler is going through right now. Unlike Waynes, Alexander underwent a position change as a rookie. After playing outside corner at Clemson, Minnesota moved Alexander inside to play nickelback. He only played 67 defensive snaps in his first year, and he admittedly wasn’t a fan of his new position.

However, in 2017 Alexander began to embrace his role in the NFL. He started to rotate into the lineup with Newman and became more coachable. Hard-headed by nature, Alexander’s ability to adapt his game to Zimmer’s scheme saw him grade out at 78.1 in 2018 and 65.7 in 2019. After a one-year stint with Cincinnati last year, Alexander re-signed with the Vikings last March. Why did he return after a sour start to his NFL career?

“I missed it, of course,” Alexander said after signing. “[It’s] why I’m back. You want to be coached like that. Somebody that’s going to stay on you. Being back is going to be fun.”

That Alexander chose to return to Minnesota to reunite with Zimmer is telling. Despite not hearing what he wanted to hear early in his career, Alexander grew to appreciate Zimmer’s tough love. Dantzler is going through that right now as well. Even if it got Dantzler into Zimmer’s doghouse, though, Waynes and Alexander are a reminder that Zimmer is willing to let players work themselves out of it. Even though Zimmer is hard on his players, especially cornerbacks, he wants what the best from them.

Perhaps being out of the starting lineup woke Dantzler up. This week, Zimmer said of him, “I think he’s a bit more focused on what he’s trying to do out there.” Defensive coordinator Andre Patterson echoed the same message Wednesday. “It’s never been a talent issue with him. It’s about being locked in and going out there and executing your job and doing what you’re supposed to do, and he’s done that the last couple of weeks.”

No team wants to experience injuries. Peterson’s on-field leadership can’t be quantified. But in his 11th season, his physical ability is nowhere near what Dantzler’s is at age 23. Dantzler can be part of the team’s present and future from this point forward. Whether he is or not, and how far his career takes off, appears to be up to him.

The Minnesota Vikings come out of the bye with an even record (3-3) and a shot at the playoffs, perhaps a surprise given their performance last year. Their ride to playoff relevance has been driven, surprisingly, just as much by its defense as its offense. While that has always been Mike Zimmer’s vision for the team, it was largely unexpected heading into the season, especially with an offense returning more than it lost and a defense full of new players with quite a bit to prove.

But the Vikings defense is sixth in expected points allowed and fifth in success rate, largely driven by a passing defense that sits third in both of those metrics. While the Vikings wouldn’t be in potential playoff position without their offense, it is indisputable that they’d be out of the race entirely without their shockingly good defense.

But the team’s most difficult tests are coming up. By EPA per play, the fourth-ranked Cowboys, eighth-ranked Ravens, 14th-ranked Chargers and seventh-ranked Packers are the next four games on the schedule.

At least the first three of those games won’t feature Patrick Peterson, who suffered a hamstring injury during the team’s Week 6 overtime win over the Panthers. Peterson is a former All-Pro who had struggled over the past two seasons but has been playing at a high level for the Vikings.

Peterson’s numbers don’t look amazing — he ranks 62nd in yards allowed per snap in coverage per Pro Football Focus and ranks 58th in total defensive grade — but his on-film play looks substantially better. Not only that, PFF charges the 77-yard Rondale Moore touchdown for the Cardinals in Week 2 to Peterson, which may not be appropriate; Sports Info Solutions charted that as a Mackensie Alexander failure, which better matches the coverage rules of the fire zone the Vikings were playing.

With that in mind, Peterson’s numbers begin to look much more in line with the level of play we’re seeing on the field. Not only that, his ability to organize the defense despite having only been in the building for a few months provides immeasurable help.




But his play has directly contributed to making the Vikings defense better. He showcases high-level recognition and does a great job of anticipating route concepts, but he also wins with his physical traits. While it’s clear that he doesn’t have the speed he once did, he still demonstrates some short-area quickness and quite a bit of strength. Add in good timing for the ball in the air and solid patience throughout the route, and it’s clear that he’s a major asset.

When ostensible “WR1s” are on the left side of the offense, the right side of the defense, they line up against Peterson. When adjusting their routes from that left-receiver role to a full-game sample, we can estimate how WR1s generally do. The group of Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, Odell Beckham and D.J. Moore averaged 1.81 yards per route run when lining up on that side, which translates to about 60 yards per game over full route volume, about 13 yards below the per-game volume these players are actually seeing. Keeping a player like Hopkins, Metcalf or Chase to a pace below 1,000 yards in a 16-game season is good. Not stellar, but pretty good.

Given that Bashaud Breeland has largely struggled — Week 6 aside — things could begin to look alarming for the Vikings without Peterson. Most likely, Breeland will continue to man the left side of the defense while Cameron Dantzler takes on the right-sided corner role.

It’s not a great sign, however, that the Vikings defense has been much better with Breeland off the field. Opponents average a completion rate of 47.1 percent, 5.20 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 54.8 when Breeland is off the field, though that is a small sample of 56 dropbacks. Even when accounting for some odd events — like a much higher drop rate from opposing receivers when Breeland has been on the sideline — the Vikings defense has generally performed better when backups have played instead of him.

Now without the possibility of benching or alternating Breeland with Dantzler, the Vikings are forced to play him and see — without much of a backup plan — if Dantzler can sustain the level of play he’s shown thus far this season.

Though Peterson’s absence could be a big problem for the Vikings the next few games, one could argue that the defense’s ability to get to the quarterback might mean they can ride out the storm.

This season’s defense has been defined by its ability to generate pressure, and that could be its saving grace — that it can help whichever corner is back there by disrupting the quarterback. Because Zimmer and co-defensive coordinator Andre Patterson do an excellent job designing pass-rush plans, the Vikings have the third-highest defensive pressure rate in the NFL at 38.2 percent, which has helped produce their league-leading sack rate of 9.3 percent.

But pressure and coverage are closely related — the faster pressure arrives, the better coverage looks. And the tighter the coverage, the longer the quarterback has to hold on to the ball, thereby inviting pressure. There are a few things that suggest the Vikings’ coverage is playing a role, not the least of which is their slow time to pressure. On pressured throws, opposing quarterbacks have about 2.57 seconds before pressure arrives, which ranks 25th in the NFL. That’s magnified by the fact that this occurs almost entirely on unblitzed downs, where the Vikings’ time to pressure ranks 31st.

That doesn’t mean the Vikings are bad at getting pressure early in the play, but rather that the fast pressures they get are supplemented by pressures created by coverage, pulling the average time up. The Vikings defense has the fifth-highest rate of pressures generated in the first 2.5 seconds of a play, so that’s not the issue. They just also happen to have a high number of pressures generated after that point, too. Those pressures could disappear if the Vikings play poor coverage early in the snap, and that’s the biggest concern here.

That tells us that though the defense seems to be driven more by its front than its coverage unit, the front is actually performing well partially because of how well the back end is holding up.

One way to visualize Peterson’s impact on these plays is to look at what happens on throws under 2.5 seconds on passes to the sideline.



When targeting Peterson’s side, the left side of the offense, opponents have to hold on to the ball a bit longer (1.94 seconds to 1.82 seconds on these faster plays) and throw shorter distances, with an average depth of target of just 4.5 yards compared to 7.6. For context, the average depth of target on these plays leaguewide is 5.1 yards downfield.

The completion rate to Peterson’s side on these plays is lower (71.4 percent to 88.2 percent) as is the yards per attempt (6.21 to 11.71). When the Vikings get quick pressure, opponents are much more likely to throw to their right (the Vikings’ left) and have been more successful. These are low samples, but it’s worth considering that it seems like opponents don’t think there are many quick opportunities when looking at Peterson’s side.

The Vikings are a solid team with a tough schedule, and they are facing the most difficult portion of it the next four weeks. Those opponents in particular are characterized by some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and some vexing offenses. Without Peterson, the Vikings could face significant challenges keeping up.

Still, it’s not a completely lost cause. Xavier Woods and Harrison Smith have been doing well at safety, and Mackensie Alexander has largely played well in the slot. But against some of the best offenses the NFL has to offer, it’s not going to be easy.