Bye Week Fixes?

The Minnesota Vikings have actually thrown the ball a lot this year.

Before stats were updated to reflect Monday Night Football, they ranked fourth in pass attempts with 240.

And after a high-flying day against Carolina in which they threw for 373 yards with zero sacks, they have some pretty impressive stats to go along with those throws. They’re sixth in total passing yards, sixth in passing Expected Points Added and seventh in yards per attempt when adjusted for sacks and interceptions.

Oh, you want a few more stats? Sure.

When Kirk Cousins throws the ball more than 10 yards through the air, he’s 44-for-73 with 899 yards (14.3 yards per attempt) with six touchdowns and two interceptions, per PFF. That’s good for a 119.1 quarterback rating.

When Cousins throws on first down, he has a 105.2 rating and averages 7.9 yards per play when adjusted for sacks and INTs. When Cousins targets Justin Jefferson, he has a 117.2 rating. Adam Thielen 130.8. KJ Osborn 118.2. PFF ranks Cousins as the third highest graded QB overall.

So why do the Vikings’ bigger picture stats not look all that great?

They rank 12th in points, 17th in the percentage of drives in which they produce points and overall as an offense the Vikings are 14th in Expected Points Added.

There are a few explanations. First is that they are 28th in rushing EPA. That doesn’t mean the running game is bad, exactly. They’re solid in terms of yards per rush. But EPA tells us performance vs. situation and teams around the league are becoming more savvy about when they run. For example: There are 16 teams with positive rushing EPAs this year. There were four in 2015.

All of the other bottom 10 EPA running teams have averages under four yards. Meaning that the Vikings’ decision making on when to run the ball is costing them, even if their rushing game is pretty good.

Other explanations: The Vikings have settled for field goals more than any other team in the NFL. Yes, they have needed several of their attempts at the ends of games but they currently lead the league with 17 attempts, two of which came on fourth-and-short from inside the Carolina 10-yard line.

The Vikings are second in the NFL in punts, too. Seven of Jordan Berry’s punts have come when the offense has fewer than four yards to gain (9th most).

Against the Cardinals they played for a field goal rather than continue to pass with hopes of scoring a touchdown at the end of the half. Versus Lions and Panthers, they did not push the envelope at the end of the first half and ultimately ended up in tight games later.

And then there’s this stat from PFF’s Eric Eager:




ADOT stands for average depth of target, by the way. What the stat means is: When games are close, the Vikings are going downfield as often as the Dolphins did when their backup QB was playing.

That’s not to say the quick game hasn’t been successful to some extent. But Zimmer has stated in the past that it’s tough to put together long drives and that’s exactly what the Vikings have been asking Cousins and Co. to do aside from when they’re in panic mode.

“We got the ball down the field some yesterday which was good,” Zimmer said. “We had a couple other shots we wanted to take but couldn’t get there.”

The players are not without blame. Penalties have pushed them into difficult situations and there have been long stretches of lifelessness this season.

On Monday, receiver Adam Thielen acknowledged they needed a Panthers punt block that gave Carolina the lead in order to kick the offense into full gear.

Here’s his full remarks:

“I don’t know if I’m saying too much here but we have so many guys on this team that handle their business, that do the right things and are locked in and focused that sometimes we forget to bring that juice, bring that excitement on the sideline. And I’m literally pointing all fingers at myself.

I have a habit to kind of go in my little zone and just focus on the next play, right? But what I think happened was we had a bunch of guys, right after that happened, that stood up and said, ‘You know what? We’re a little dull right now on the sideline and we need to get going.’ And that’s not necessarily about focusing in more, it was just about having some energy on the sideline whether we’re on offense or defense. ‘Let’s get some energy going.’

I think that’s what kind of got us out of that funk a little bit. Sometimes when you have a play like that, and they take a lead, you just lock in a little bit more and you know, ‘We’ve got to go and we’ve got to go now. We can’t just keep milling around and see what happens. We’ve got to go.’ And then it took just one play; I think it was (C.J. Ham’s) run right there that kind of sparked us and got us moving.”

The Vikings have put themselves in a position where there won’t be much room for lulls in the offense. In the coming weeks, they face the No. 1, 7, 10 and 13 offenses in points. The Cowboys are certain to pull away if the Vikings go quiet for two quarters, unlike the Goff-led Lions or Darnold-driven Panthers. Football Outsiders put the Vikings in the top five toughest schedules going forward.

Maybe the second half of the Panthers game will act as a wake up call and inspiration at the same time. The Vikings’ offense hasn’t looked like that since Daunte Culpepper was throwing to Randy Moss or Brett Favre was firing away to Sidney Rice.

Lurking in the background are signs of regression. Cousins has put together strings like this before and has struggled to sustain them. See: The 2019 season. There’s also the fact that the Vikings have the fourth lowest turnover percentage in the league, which may be a product of throwing oodles of short passes and running.

But the only way to break out of the cycle of relying on last-minute kicks is to pull away from the opposition or fight fire with fire against the better offenses. Defense and field position aren’t getting it done the way they used to, even in recent years. The Vikings have the seventh best defense in EPA and they’re still playing every game down to the wire.

The Vikings have two weeks to look at how they’ve been operating, compare themselves to the rest of the NFL and make adjustments before matching up against the big boys. They are destined to repeat history and leave games hanging in the last-second balance week after week if a more aggressive approach isn’t adopted.