2021 Kirk - The moment of truth

I don't think anyone is thinking the Vikings need to draft QB's on Day 2/Day 3 and hope they turn into Tom Brady. I actually have the opinion that you won't see teams pass on Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott on Day 2 again, either - there's just too much Draft analysis that goes into all positions - especially QB's - for them to fall into Round 3 or 4. 

So if you go by the opinion that we won't be finding a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott in the middle rounds, let's go back and look at the "hit" rate of QB's selected in Round 1 in the 2017-2020 drafts (I started with 2017 because 2016 was the last Draft that someone "hit" on a QB in the middle rounds when Dallas took Dak in the 4th, and also excluded 2021 because the jury is still out):

"H" designates "hits", "B" designates "bombs"

2017 Round 1 QB's: Trubisky (B), Mahomes (H), Watson (H)
2018 Round 1 QB's: Mayfield (B), Darnold (B), Allen (H), Rosen (B), L Jackson (H)
2019 Round 1 QB's: Murray (H), D Jones (B), Haskins (B)
2020 Round 1 QB's: Burrow (H), Tua (B), Herbert (H), Love (B)

There were 15 QB's selected in Round 1 in the last 4 drafts since Dallas found Dak in the 4th in 2016. Out of those, 7 (or 47%) were "hits" for their teams that they can use to build around to try and win a Super Bowl, compared to 8 "bombs" (or 53%) - it's nearly a 50/50 split. Some might say it's harsh to call Baker a "bomb", but I personally don't see him as someone the Browns will build around after his rookie deal is up. 

If Kirk is willing to take a significant paycut on his next extension down to around a $20m-$25m cap hit per season, I'd actually be all for it, because that may provide enough space to fill some roster gaps in free agency...

...but in reality, there's probably a less than 1% chance Kirk and his agent would agree to such an extension...so we're left with the alternative of trying to trade significant draft assets for R Wilson or D Watson....or find a cheaper "bridge QB" while we build the roster and take a shot at drafting a franchise QB in upcoming drafts. 

The reason I'm not in favor of trading for Russell Wilson/D Watson is that even though they are "franchise" QB's, we still need some semblance of a team around them and when you look at 2022+, we have too many roster holes and with the amount it will cost in draft assets & cap dollars to acquire/maintain them, we won't be able to fill those holes without the draft assets or cap dollars. There were some fans who thought after the 2017 NFC Championship that we were just 1 player away - that "franchise" QB - from being a consistent contender to get us over the hump, but in addition to Kirk not turning out to be that "franchise" QB, we all learned we weren't just "1 player" away. 

So with teams having nearly a 50% success rate in finding a QB to build around in recent Drafts, I'm leaning more towards finding a trade partner for Cousins, signing a cheaper "bridge" QB this offseason (maybe someone like Mariota) and possibly drafting someone in 2022 or 2023, while using the cap savings from Cousins and draft assets to build-up the roster while continually developing players like Ezra, Dantzler, etc. 

The championship window that was opened from Zimmer's early years in Minnesota and they tried to keep pried open with Kirk isn't open anymore, IMO. And to keep trying to hold that window open with another lofty Cousins extension (when the first one didn't work) is just beating a dead horse. 

No you only went back to 2017 because if you go back to 2010 my point gets 100% proven... Can't bullsh*t a bullshitter...😂😂😂 Cmon. What a selective cut off year. Lol...🙄

It's actually worse than I thought... Now I'm for never ever drafting a QB in round 1 UNLESS your like a 5 win or less team with no talent on the roster where things can't possibly get any worse.

Holy sh*t I didn't even realize how awful it was to draft a round 1 QB. Holy hell...

The absolute worst move the Vikings could make would be cutting ties with Kirk and drafting a QB... f*ck man, if you cut ties with Kirk bring me the next retread. f*ck that sh*t. To tell you the truth my tolerance for what Kirk could cost actually just went up and I actually appreciate him more now... QB hell is something fierce... Yikes


2016
Goff
Wentz
Lynch

2015
Winston
Mariota

2014
Bottles
Manziel
Teddy

2013
Manuel

2012
Luck
RG3
Tannehill

2011
Newton
Locker
Gabbard
Ponder

2010
Bradford
Tebow

Since 2010 drafting a QB in round 1 has a 1 in 33 chance of winning the Super Bowl. A 3% chance and you said yourself we have a 20% chance of Kirk getting hot at the right time...

Now that's disgusting...

Starting to think this bunch would of cried about Warren Moon too. One of my favorite Vikings retreads.

Pinfante, I respect your passion and your persistence that drafting a franchise QB is far more difficult than it might seem. Also, when a HOF/Franchise QB wins a Super Bowl, it is not always because of that QB. Three examples: Wilson won because of the Seahawks D, Brady won because of the Bucs D shutting down Mahomes, and Brady beat Wilson because of a rare goal-line interception. Many Super Bowls are won because of defenses that shut opponents down or cause turnovers.

Cousins is good, and something is missing. He does not win enough games given his stats. He is overpaid for his record. I would rather build an elite defense than have Cousins. I'm skeptical the team can keep Cousins and build an elite defense.

The Viking offense has two great players: Jefferson and Thielen. Cook is not great because he is not healthy by the end of the season. This year, the Viking running game is below average; look at Yards, YPC, and TDs. I used to believe in the Zone Blocking scheme; if Zimmer and the run emphasis limits the touches of Jefferson and Thielen, the Vikings need a new scheme.

Like last year, the defense has become the weak link. They have suffered a lot of injuries, and injuries to key players have probably cost the Vikings a few wins. But Zimmer's scheme or play-calling seems weak at key times. Zimmer could be an even bigger problem than Cousins for the inability to hold leads.

My perception is now that Zimmer has gone from an above average Head Coach to below average. It is time for a new Coach and a new QB.

Again, trading/cutting Dalvin saves almost no cap.  

You are barking up the wrong tree with that one.

9 million after every top tier free agent has signed and after the draft has occurred?  That is really gonna do a lot to better our roster...

Where I agree: the Vikings probably do keep Cousins.

Where I disagree: The only time to draft a QB is in round 1. If they want a succession plan, they almost have to take a QB round 1 even if Cousins is still around (i.e. Mahomes in round 1 when Alex Smith was still a respectable starter)

Taking your timeframe, 2010-2020, there were 34 QBs drafted in round 1. I counted 15 hits on my list. You could disagree with some. I called Goff a hit (he played in the Super Bowl and got a 2nd Contract), Wentz (close to an MVP and has picked things back up), Bridgewater was a hit (looked good pre-injury). That's a hit rate of 44%.

Now, look at the QBs drafted anytime other than the 1st round over that same time frame. There were 98 of them. I counted 11 hits as follows:
Gardner Minshew, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor.

That's the best of the lot from outside the 1st round. I think I had to be verrryyyy generous to call some of those guys hits (it was basically anybody who had done anything at all). Had guys like Minshew, Geno, Foles, Tyrod been 1st rounders, we'd probably look at their careers as bombs.

That's a 44% hit rate in the 1st round vs an 11% hit rate in later rounds if you're happy with Tyrod Taylor as your starting QB. If you don't want a Minshew type QB, the hit rate of later rounds has been closer to 6%.

Most of what you consider "hits" have never been as good as Cousins a day in their life. Period.

I'm not trying to "hit" on the next Jared Goff. I want a Superbowl and the easiest path or should I say best odds since there is no easy path to a Superbowl but right now is so damn simple and obvious. This offense (plus or minus Dalvin) upgrade center and RG, bring Irv into the mix, improve the defense which should be very easy considering how awful it is. Don't be a disaster before the half. Let Brady get another year older and get Rodgers out of the division.

Now...

I'm fine with drafting a QB if we keep Cousins and stay the course and don't trade the house to move up AND have a coach who can identify via practice and preseason if he can or can't be better than Kirk down the line.