2021 Kirk - The moment of truth

Kirk Cousins has always been an above-average QB but, particularly in big spots, it just doesn’t seem like he elevates the play of those around him like the elite QBs. Instead, it’s the opposite and everyone else has to be great to make him look so, too. Just curious if you see anything in his particular skill set — limitations, mentality, competitiveness, charisma (or lack thereof) … something — that is just different from the game’s very best QBs, the ones who lead teams to success despite lesser supporting casts, tough opponents, injuries, backup OL guys or whatever. Thanks! – Mark C.

I tend to see these sorts of things more as variance than an inherent trait of quarterbacks — one that evens out over time. Consider the fact that from 2008 to 2017, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had a record of 5-21 (.192) in games he started where they had at least one drive down one score in the final five minutes of a game. Since 2018, the Packers and Rodgers have maintained a record of 5-5 (.500) in those same situations. Teams overall are .269 in those situations, so Rodgers was extremely un-clutch until he was suddenly very clutch.

But even by those standards, the Vikings with Cousins are remarkably poor. In that same situation, the Vikings are 1-11-1 for a winning percentage of .115, ranking 29th of all teams since 2018.

I think the supporting cast can play a role — it’s a team game, and comebacks don’t work without a defense holding on — but Cousins, for the most part, has had a better supporting cast than his high-paid quarterback contemporaries. Though the 2020 defense was poor, the Vikings have had better units than most teams during Cousins’ tenure. He’s also had high-level receivers. A poor offensive line can hurt, but other teams have bigger deficiencies elsewhere that more than likely make up for that difference.

Part of it has to do with a poor offensive line, and part of it has to do with a coaching staff that doesn’t manage the clock well, but much of it certainly comes from Cousins. I went into more detail in my post-2018 scouting report of Cousins, but it largely hasn’t changed. Cousins is a paint-by-numbers quarterback who throws what the reads tell him to throw. He’s very good at that, but it leaves him vulnerable to situations where he needs to throw against his reads in non-standard situations. That includes not throwing over the middle in two-minute drills or taking checkdowns with just seconds left on the clock, even though the defense has left those players open.