Post by Purple Pain on Sept 21, 2021 11:51:23 GMT -6
Inspired by this thread, created around this time last year! We can start it out the same way, too.
Here we go:
Zone Coverage:
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2021/minnesota-vikings-news/the-vikings-did-almost-everything-right-but-couldnt-overcome-bad-luck/
The Athletic:
Oh-and-twombstone: Are the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff hopes already dead? by Arif Hasan
...
Link:
theathletic.com/2838246/2021/09/21/oh-and-twombstone-are-the-minnesota-vikings-playoff-hopes-already-dead/
Purple Insider: On the matter of ifs and buts... by Matthew Coller
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/on-the-matter-of-ifs-and-buts
It's probably about time to accept reality, isn't it? That dreaded 0-2 start. Thanks, Vikes!
Zone Coverage:
It was the second frustrating loss in two weeks. Zimmer’s message after the game? “We’re two plays away from being 2-0.” That’s a tough sell in the wake of a heartbreaker like this Cardinals game, but the Vikings have 15 games left. They can’t afford to get down on themselves in September, as much as you may want to see them show remorse for what they did to your heart. There is a lot of football to be played, whether you like it or not.
zonecoverage.com/2021/minnesota-vikings-news/the-vikings-did-almost-everything-right-but-couldnt-overcome-bad-luck/
The Athletic:
Oh-and-twombstone: Are the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff hopes already dead? by Arif Hasan
With losses in their two opening games, and with two more intimidating opponents coming up on the schedule, it might be prudent to ask if the Vikings are completely out of the playoff race. See, historically, teams that are 0-2 don’t make the playoffs. Even when the odds are adjusted to look at teams that would have made the playoffs in the 14-team format, an 11-year sample tells us that only 11 percent of 0-2 teams qualify for the postseason. That holds up when only the past five years are examined.
Not only that, the Vikings have a difficult schedule. With composite power rankings used as a proxy for team quality, the Vikings have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule — with the Seahawks, Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Rams and Packers left to go. That should probably wind down expectations even more.
But a one-in-nine chance isn’t zero, and with a 17-game schedule instead of a 16-game one, they have one more opportunity than teams in the past had when facing the same daunting climb.
Should fans treat the Vikings as if they’re out of it?
The Vikings themselves overcame this hurdle in 2008, when they started 0-2 before ripping off wins in three of the next four and posting a 7-2 record after their bye. That team featured shakier quarterback play than the 2021 squad with a league-average defense. Most recently, the 2018 Seahawks and Texans made the playoffs after starting 0-2, and the 2019 Steelers would have qualified in the new format.
For what it’s worth, the Vikings have about a one-in-three chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ranking system. That system largely matches other analytics-oriented power rankings like NumberFire, ESPN’s Football Power Index and TeamRankings.
Their odds of winning the Super Bowl, according to various sportsbooks, remains higher than some 1-1 teams, including in-division Chicago and prior opponent Cincinnati as well as at least one 2-0 team, depending on the book — Carolina.
On average, about one 0-2 team a year qualifies in this format, and it very well could be the Vikings.
The two fundamental reasons 0-2 teams miss out on the playoffs are fairly obvious but worth breaking down. First and most important: Teams that go winless deep into the season are typically pretty bad and don’t have the quality necessary to go on a winning streak. But second, those teams have a hill to climb and a deficit to overcome.
The first element might apply to the Vikings, but they have had a better point differential than the vast majority of 0-2 teams. In the past five years, 42 teams have started 0-2. Of those teams, the Vikings have the best point differential of the bunch at negative four points. Over the past decade, the 2021 Vikings had the second-best point differential of the 89 0-2 teams.
As head coach Mike Zimmer suggested Sunday, the Vikings are essentially two plays away from being 2-0 instead of 0-2. Playing two close games like that tells us that the Vikings are qualitatively closer to a 1-1 team than a 2-0 team. There is exhaustive evidence that a team’s close-game record doesn’t predict much of anything and that you know more about a team if you treat close games like ties.
Not only that, the Vikings have generally played like a borderline playoff team. ESPN’s FPI ranks them 14th among NFL teams, and they rank 16th in net expected points, a measure of efficiency that looks at the play-to-play effectiveness of a team based on down and distance. From a success-rate perspective, they rank 13th, and that amplifies the point given that explosive plays are rare and difficult to predict in frequency and magnitude.
The Vikings aren’t a good team by any means, but they aren’t a bad team. If they can carry this level of play and continue making tweaks on defense, they should show the quality we’re used to seeing from playoff teams. Last year, Minnesota improved its defense from the first two weeks — ranked 28th in expected points per play given up — from Weeks 3 through 12 before Eric Kendricks suffered his calf injury. In that span, the defense ranked 15th.
Not only that, the Vikings have a difficult schedule. With composite power rankings used as a proxy for team quality, the Vikings have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule — with the Seahawks, Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Rams and Packers left to go. That should probably wind down expectations even more.
But a one-in-nine chance isn’t zero, and with a 17-game schedule instead of a 16-game one, they have one more opportunity than teams in the past had when facing the same daunting climb.
Should fans treat the Vikings as if they’re out of it?
The Vikings themselves overcame this hurdle in 2008, when they started 0-2 before ripping off wins in three of the next four and posting a 7-2 record after their bye. That team featured shakier quarterback play than the 2021 squad with a league-average defense. Most recently, the 2018 Seahawks and Texans made the playoffs after starting 0-2, and the 2019 Steelers would have qualified in the new format.
For what it’s worth, the Vikings have about a one-in-three chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ranking system. That system largely matches other analytics-oriented power rankings like NumberFire, ESPN’s Football Power Index and TeamRankings.
Their odds of winning the Super Bowl, according to various sportsbooks, remains higher than some 1-1 teams, including in-division Chicago and prior opponent Cincinnati as well as at least one 2-0 team, depending on the book — Carolina.
On average, about one 0-2 team a year qualifies in this format, and it very well could be the Vikings.
The two fundamental reasons 0-2 teams miss out on the playoffs are fairly obvious but worth breaking down. First and most important: Teams that go winless deep into the season are typically pretty bad and don’t have the quality necessary to go on a winning streak. But second, those teams have a hill to climb and a deficit to overcome.
The first element might apply to the Vikings, but they have had a better point differential than the vast majority of 0-2 teams. In the past five years, 42 teams have started 0-2. Of those teams, the Vikings have the best point differential of the bunch at negative four points. Over the past decade, the 2021 Vikings had the second-best point differential of the 89 0-2 teams.
As head coach Mike Zimmer suggested Sunday, the Vikings are essentially two plays away from being 2-0 instead of 0-2. Playing two close games like that tells us that the Vikings are qualitatively closer to a 1-1 team than a 2-0 team. There is exhaustive evidence that a team’s close-game record doesn’t predict much of anything and that you know more about a team if you treat close games like ties.
Not only that, the Vikings have generally played like a borderline playoff team. ESPN’s FPI ranks them 14th among NFL teams, and they rank 16th in net expected points, a measure of efficiency that looks at the play-to-play effectiveness of a team based on down and distance. From a success-rate perspective, they rank 13th, and that amplifies the point given that explosive plays are rare and difficult to predict in frequency and magnitude.
The Vikings aren’t a good team by any means, but they aren’t a bad team. If they can carry this level of play and continue making tweaks on defense, they should show the quality we’re used to seeing from playoff teams. Last year, Minnesota improved its defense from the first two weeks — ranked 28th in expected points per play given up — from Weeks 3 through 12 before Eric Kendricks suffered his calf injury. In that span, the defense ranked 15th.
The Vikings aren’t likely to make the playoffs. The friendliest estimates put them at a one-in-three chance, and harsher approximations give them a one-in-nine chance. But the team isn’t dead, and it isn’t just another two-loss team. With difficult games coming up against Seattle and Cleveland, they could turn things around.
theathletic.com/2838246/2021/09/21/oh-and-twombstone-are-the-minnesota-vikings-playoff-hopes-already-dead/
Purple Insider: On the matter of ifs and buts... by Matthew Coller
When it comes to the Minnesota Vikings’ start to the season, losses to the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals test all the clichés.
Don Meredith famously said, “if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, wouldn’t it be a Merry Christmas?” The implication is that every team can play the if-and-but game with their record but the end result is all that matters. If there’s any team in the league that has ifs-and-buts its the Vikings, who had an 87% chance to win before Dalvin Cook fumbled in Cincy and 90% before Greg Joseph missed wide right in Arizona per Edj Sports.
Bill Parcells’s classic statement that “you are what your record says you are” is also challenged here. Are they really an 0-2 team? The other 0-2 teams include Atlanta, Jacksonville, both New Yorks and Indianapolis. The Vikings are certainly better than those clubs and their Expected Win-Loss based on points differential, per Pro Football Reference, is 1-1.
You might even select Denny Green’s, “they are who we thought they were,” depending on how far you lean on the pessimistic side. But did we think they were going to be an 0-2 team? Few people would have picked the Vikings to start the year with back-to-back losses considering both opponents were beatable.
Like rumors, there’s truth to all clichés.
But the ifs and buts cut both ways. If the Vikings hadn’t let a 20-7 lead slip away, they wouldn’t have put the game on Greg Joseph’s shoulders. If they had been called for clearly facemasking Kyler Murray on his second interception, the Cardinals might have simply put them away. Same goes for Arizona opening the door for the Vikings by failing to move the ball on their last offensive drive. If they executed on that drive, game over.
The final play shapes the way we remember the game but it doesn’t change the fact that there were plenty of other opportunities to win. Mike Zimmer told his team as much.
"After the game [Zimmer] said to the team that the game wasn't lost on the final kick,” Joseph said. “I know that I had a chance to win the game... that was what he said but I need to do better to put wins in the column for this team.”
As far as Parcells’s stance: You don’t get bonus points for losing via a last-second field goal. The Vikings have to climb out of an 0-2 hole regardless of how it happened. They now trail the Packers and Bears by a game in the division and sit in 13th place in the NFC.
There’s also plenty of evidence that they aren’t secretly a 2-0 team in disguise. The Vikings are 26th in points allowed, 25th in passing yards allowed, 27th in opposing QB rating, 22nd in rushing yards allowed, 18th in percentage of drives in which the offense has produced points and 29th in average offensive starting field position.
This team has to make the argument that its better than its record because there’s nowhere else to go.
There aren’t conversations about the future or the development of key players. In fact, the only young players we are learning about in the starting lineup are KJ Osborn, Oli Udoh and DJ Wonnum. Everybody else is established.
The coach has been around eight years. The quarterback is in his fourth season here and 10th NFL season. The front office has been in place for a decade. There are no silver linings to 0-2 when future isn’t a factor.
The tougher part of the start, beyond its natural gut-punch nature, is that the Vikings can’t bottle their QB performances from the last two weeks and let them out when they need them later.
Kirk Cousins ranks fourth in PFF grade through two games and seventh in quarterback rating. He hasn’t caused a turnover and has only been sacked four times and pressured on 26% of dropbacks, the third best in the NFL thus far.
...
If it gets to 0-4, nobody will remember the ifs and buts of the first two weeks. They will only see the team as what their record says.
Mike Zimmer is trying to speak the possibility of a complete slide out of existence.
“I was encouraged by the effort, the fight and the toughness that we had, from the quarterback all the way down to the defensive linemen,” Zimmer said.
Now back to Denny Green. What we thought the Vikings were is a team in the middle. A group that could have a great season if things went right or a team that could be derailed if things broke the wrong way. Through two games, they have broken the wrong way in epic fashion.
What we think they are is a team that would have a really tough time responding to those crushing blows against two Super Bowl contenders.
The plus side to facing Seattle and Cleveland in the next two weeks is that we get to find out if there’s more there than what we thought.
Coming back from 0-2 isn’t impossible. In 2008, they needed to get to 3-3 at the bye and then get hot in the second half of the season. That remains in play. But there’s no more room for ifs and buts.
Don Meredith famously said, “if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, wouldn’t it be a Merry Christmas?” The implication is that every team can play the if-and-but game with their record but the end result is all that matters. If there’s any team in the league that has ifs-and-buts its the Vikings, who had an 87% chance to win before Dalvin Cook fumbled in Cincy and 90% before Greg Joseph missed wide right in Arizona per Edj Sports.
Bill Parcells’s classic statement that “you are what your record says you are” is also challenged here. Are they really an 0-2 team? The other 0-2 teams include Atlanta, Jacksonville, both New Yorks and Indianapolis. The Vikings are certainly better than those clubs and their Expected Win-Loss based on points differential, per Pro Football Reference, is 1-1.
You might even select Denny Green’s, “they are who we thought they were,” depending on how far you lean on the pessimistic side. But did we think they were going to be an 0-2 team? Few people would have picked the Vikings to start the year with back-to-back losses considering both opponents were beatable.
Like rumors, there’s truth to all clichés.
But the ifs and buts cut both ways. If the Vikings hadn’t let a 20-7 lead slip away, they wouldn’t have put the game on Greg Joseph’s shoulders. If they had been called for clearly facemasking Kyler Murray on his second interception, the Cardinals might have simply put them away. Same goes for Arizona opening the door for the Vikings by failing to move the ball on their last offensive drive. If they executed on that drive, game over.
The final play shapes the way we remember the game but it doesn’t change the fact that there were plenty of other opportunities to win. Mike Zimmer told his team as much.
"After the game [Zimmer] said to the team that the game wasn't lost on the final kick,” Joseph said. “I know that I had a chance to win the game... that was what he said but I need to do better to put wins in the column for this team.”
As far as Parcells’s stance: You don’t get bonus points for losing via a last-second field goal. The Vikings have to climb out of an 0-2 hole regardless of how it happened. They now trail the Packers and Bears by a game in the division and sit in 13th place in the NFC.
There’s also plenty of evidence that they aren’t secretly a 2-0 team in disguise. The Vikings are 26th in points allowed, 25th in passing yards allowed, 27th in opposing QB rating, 22nd in rushing yards allowed, 18th in percentage of drives in which the offense has produced points and 29th in average offensive starting field position.
This team has to make the argument that its better than its record because there’s nowhere else to go.
There aren’t conversations about the future or the development of key players. In fact, the only young players we are learning about in the starting lineup are KJ Osborn, Oli Udoh and DJ Wonnum. Everybody else is established.
The coach has been around eight years. The quarterback is in his fourth season here and 10th NFL season. The front office has been in place for a decade. There are no silver linings to 0-2 when future isn’t a factor.
The tougher part of the start, beyond its natural gut-punch nature, is that the Vikings can’t bottle their QB performances from the last two weeks and let them out when they need them later.
Kirk Cousins ranks fourth in PFF grade through two games and seventh in quarterback rating. He hasn’t caused a turnover and has only been sacked four times and pressured on 26% of dropbacks, the third best in the NFL thus far.
...
If it gets to 0-4, nobody will remember the ifs and buts of the first two weeks. They will only see the team as what their record says.
Mike Zimmer is trying to speak the possibility of a complete slide out of existence.
“I was encouraged by the effort, the fight and the toughness that we had, from the quarterback all the way down to the defensive linemen,” Zimmer said.
Now back to Denny Green. What we thought the Vikings were is a team in the middle. A group that could have a great season if things went right or a team that could be derailed if things broke the wrong way. Through two games, they have broken the wrong way in epic fashion.
What we think they are is a team that would have a really tough time responding to those crushing blows against two Super Bowl contenders.
The plus side to facing Seattle and Cleveland in the next two weeks is that we get to find out if there’s more there than what we thought.
Coming back from 0-2 isn’t impossible. In 2008, they needed to get to 3-3 at the bye and then get hot in the second half of the season. That remains in play. But there’s no more room for ifs and buts.
Link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/on-the-matter-of-ifs-and-buts
... and neither is this Chris guy.
