Post by Reignman on Sept 26, 2021 19:41:25 GMT -6
I don't know why everyone is talking about penalties and whatnot. We should be talking about wins/losses.
home records:
2018 158-106-2
2019 139-127-1
2020 134-134-1
2021 23- 23-0
With or without fans in the stands, the home team is .500 the past 2 seasons. No homefield advantage at all. There was in 2018 however.
The feeling in sharp gambling circles at this point is that the traditional 3 pt home field advantage is out the window, and the real advantage is somewhere between 1-2 points in most cases.I always heard the home team was automatically worth 3 points, so if they were favored by 3 it was essentially even, so I tried to figure out where they get the 3. And the best I can come up with is, since 1994 the home team has scored an average of 22.96 PPG while the road team has scored 20.60, so a difference of 2.36. Oddly enough, in that same stretch home teams have been favored by an average of 2.34 in all games.
When you break that down by when the home team is actually favored, it's by an average of 5.89, and when the road team is favored, it's by an average of 4.59, so I can see where the 1.3 comes from. But, obviously the home team is favored more often though, like by a 2:1 margin (4466 to 2260 to be exact), so I would say the home team is automatically worth that 2.36 number.
home records:
2018 158-106-2
2019 139-127-1
2020 134-134-1
2021 23- 23-0
With or without fans in the stands, the home team is .500 the past 2 seasons. No homefield advantage at all. There was in 2018 however.
When you break that down by when the home team is actually favored, it's by an average of 5.89, and when the road team is favored, it's by an average of 4.59, so I can see where the 1.3 comes from. But, obviously the home team is favored more often though, like by a 2:1 margin (4466 to 2260 to be exact), so I would say the home team is automatically worth that 2.36 number.
... and neither is this Chris guy.