Has Kirk been given enough support?

Brees and Herbert share more than the playbook Brees’ former position coach, Joe Lombardi, brought to Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers upon becoming their offensive coordinator last season. The two quarterbacks also know what it’s like to perform at elite levels and still struggle to reach .500 for reasons outside their direct control.

Brees won 45 percent of his starts from 2014-16 despite ranking fourth, fifth and seventh in ESPN’s Total QBR, respectively. His Saints offense ranked first in expected points added (EPA) over that run, according to TruMedia. Herbert won 47 percent of his starts over the past two seasons despite ranking 13th and third in QBR for an offense that ranked sixth in EPA over that span.

The culprit: terrible defense and/or special teams. Brees’ Saints ranked 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams from 2014-16. Herbert’s Chargers rank 30th over the past two seasons.

That is how Brees and Herbert rank 1-2 on my “Quarterback Betrayal Index” stacking all 54 quarterbacks with at least 30 combined regular-season and playoff starts over the past decade (2012-21).

The index highlights differences in where these quarterbacks’ teams ranked on offense compared to defense/special teams, using TruMedia’s EPA model. The better a quarterback’s team was on offense and the worse his team was on defense/special teams, the more “betrayed” the quarterback was in the games he started. For example, Brees’ teams ranked second on offense and 51st on defense/special teams in his starts over the past decade, relative to where the other 53 quarterbacks’ teams ranked. Subtracting the defense/special teams ranking from the offense ranking produces a minus-49 differential, making Brees the “most betrayed” quarterback on the index.

The 54 quarterbacks below have a combined 722-1541-9 (.320) record in games when their teams finished with negative combined EPA on defense and special teams. As hard as it is to win these games, Mahomes has won 64 percent of them, best among all these quarterbacks, while Blaine Gabbert has a 1-20 record in those games, worst among the group. It’s illuminating to see where all the QBs fall in between.

17. Kirk Cousins

OFF 22 | DST 33 | Betrayal Index: -11

W-L: 60-61-2 (.496)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 17-45-2 (.281, 29th best)

Cousins has a solid 7-18-2 record in the most extreme “betrayal” games, defined here as those when the combined defense/special-teams EPA is worse than minus-10.0 for a game. That is 11th-best win rate in those games among the 54 quarterbacks, a tick behind the 7-16 mark for Russell Wilson. The most extreme victory: 42-30 against Detroit in 2019 despite Minnesota finishing with minus-19.5 in combined EPA on defense/special teams.

28. Teddy Bridgewater

OFF 24 | DST 23 | Betrayal Index: +1

W-L: 33-31 (.516)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-26 (.235, 36th best)

Players on this list won 75 percent of their starts when their teams finished with positive combined EPA on defense/special teams. Bridgewater beat that average with a 25-5 record in those games (.833).

44. Sam Bradford

OFF 44 | DST 21 | Betrayal Index: +23

W-L: 26-30-1 (.465)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 3-23-1 (.130, 50th best)

Bradford’s offenses were about as productive on average as the offenses with Josh McCown and Case Keenum in the lineup.

48. Case Keenum

OFF 46 | DST 16 | Betrayal Index: +30

W-L: 30-36 (.455)

W-L with negative team DST EPA: 8-22 (.267, 32nd best)

The Vikings chose Kirk Cousins over Keenum entering the 2018 season. Though Cousins’ offenses have outperformed Keenum’s offenses over their careers, Keenum’s 16-start run with the Vikings produced more offensive EPA per start (2.0) than Cousins’ 65-start run with the team (1.0 average) has produced. Keenum got much greater support from Minnesota’s defense/special teams (3.6 EPA per start, compared to only 0.5 for Cousins).