Post by Purple Pain on Sept 7, 2021 9:41:49 GMT -6
Some of this stuff is old news (piece is from July), but I wanted to share some of these interesting tidbits anyway:
Minnesota Vikings: Expecting Better Defense, Special Teams, and Health by Scott Spratt
Actual analysis and discussion at the link:
www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2021/team/minnesota-vikings
Minnesota Vikings: Expecting Better Defense, Special Teams, and Health by Scott Spratt
🏈 Although every team in the NFL had 11 personnel as their most common grouping last season, Minnesota was the only offense that used 11 personnel less than 40% of the time.
🏈 Minnesota only ran the ball 32% of time when using 12 personnel, the lowest figure in the league.
🏈 The Vikings zoomed up from 31st to fifth in using empty backfields. They had a strong 7.2 yards per play from empty, but a few fumbles helped drop them to a very average 8.4% DVOA.
🏈 For the second straight year, Minnesota was very high with 10.3 yards after the catch on targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. (This figure was 11.2 yards in 2019.)
🏈 The Vikings finished last by throwing only 9% of passes to targets we designated as “other wide receivers,” i.e., not No. 1 or No. 2.
🏈 Minnesota ran a league-low 13 wide receiver or tight end screens, although they had an excellent 39.8% DVOA in this small sample.
🏈 Vikings receivers dropped only 18 passes, tied for second in the league.
🏈 After three straight years in the top five for both stats, Minnesota’s defense finished “only” 10th in both yards allowed (6.1) and DVOA (-5.8%) when blitzing.
🏈 The Vikings had no gap between where their two safeties made their average play, suggesting interchangeable safeties instead of more defined roles as free and strong safety. Minnesota has been at the bottom of the league in this stat for a few years.
🏈 Minnesota finished second with 11 coverage sacks on defense, and more than half their sacks were “non-pressure sacks” (either coverage sacks or failed scrambles).
🏈 There’s quite a dichotomy between the Vikings’ No. 1 rank in adjusted line yards and their ranks in power success (27th) and blown blocks on running plays (31st). The Vikings specialized in runs where someone got charged with a blown block but Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison gained positive yardage anyway. They had 37 such plays; no other offense had more than 30.
🏈 Riley Reiff cut his blown block rate on passes in half compared to his first three years with the Vikings, but it was still an easy decision for the team to cut him and free up $11.8 million in cap space. They may not even suffer in the transition since they snagged Virginia Tech tackle Christian Darrisaw with the 23rd overall pick after a trade down. Darrisaw is smooth and strong, though he has had struggles against edge rushers with finesse and speed.
🏈 Darrisaw continues the Vikings’ recent trend of heavy draft investment in their offensive line. But despite their rushing success, those draft picks have had mixed results. 2019 first-round center Garrett Bradbury declined from a 2.5% blown block rate as a rookie to 3.8% last year. And while he has an earned reputation as a poor pass-protector, he also blew more than twice as many run blocks in his second year (22 vs. 10) despite an almost identical total of run snaps.
🏈 2019 fourth-round guard Dru Samia blew 10.3% of his pass blocks in his first significant playing time in 2020. That was the worst of any offensive lineman with 100 or more passing snaps.
🏈 Fortunately, 2020 second-rounder Ezra Cleveland looks like a hit after a 2.5% rookie blown block rate. Cleveland and third-round rookie Wyatt Davis (Ohio State) should start on either side of Bradbury and can try to prop him up where previous guards such as Pat Elflein and Dakota Dozier could not.
🏈 Brian O’Neill was the vanguard of this revamped offensive line as a second-round selection in 2018. And while his 2.2% blown block rate in 2020 was no better than his three-year career rate, it makes him a capable starter at right tackle. If he or either rookie falters, veterans Rashod Hill and Dozier offer depth at tackle and guard after returning to the team on one-year deals.
🏈 The Vikings will have a completely new defensive line in 2021 with free-agent additions Dalvin Tomlinson and Stephen Weatherly joining COVID opt-out Michael Pierce and injury returnee Danielle Hunter. Hunter is the biggest name there and deserves to be since his 59 hurries in 2019 were the fourth-most that season. But the Vikings may gain more from the Tomlinson and Pierce additions. They had run stop rates of 75% and 71% in 2020 and 2019, respectively. Armon Watts was the team’s only regular defensive tackle with a rate better than 63% last season, and the defense as a whole had the worst adjusted line yards (5.16) and third-worst run defense DVOA (1.9% DVOA) in football.
🏈 Hunter is returning from a cervical spine disc herniation, which sounds terrifying but seems not to worry the Vikings if you believe their interviews. What worries them instead is probably Hunter’s reported dissatisfaction with his current contract and subsequent absence from OTAs. He did return for mandatory minicamp but is a threat to hold out for a new deal.
🏈 The team planned for the future with third- and fourth-round draft selections of edge rushers Patrick Jones II (Pitt) and Janarius Robinson (Florida State), but that pair will likely need time to translate their tools into NFL production. Weatherly, meanwhile, is a complementary piece. He managed just six sacks and 45 hurries in his best two seasons with the Vikings before his 2020 dalliance with the Panthers.
🏈 Linebacker Anthony Barr seldom matched the reputation that landed him four Pro Bowl berths with standout run stop or coverage success rates. He finished just 18th and 46th among linebackers in those rates in 2019, and then he missed the bulk of 2020 with a torn pectoral muscle. He was inching toward cut-candidate status until he agreed to a pay cut this offseason, telling St. Paul Pioneer Press reporter Chris Tomasson that he “didn’t want that to be [his] last memory as a Minnesota Viking.”
🏈 If anything, Eric Kendricks is underrated. He has had identical 66% coverage success rates the last two seasons and finished in the top six among linebackers. Even with Barr returning, Kendricks will be a defensive keystone in 2021 in part because tackle machine Eric Wilson departed in free agency for the Eagles and in part as a mentor to third-round rookie Chazz Surratt. Surratt was North Carolina’s quarterback before a junior year switch to defense. He’ll need to improve his feel for his new position before his exceptional speed and athleticism makes him a capable NFL starter.
🏈 Minnesota’s safety strength will likely take a hit in 2021 with Anthony Harris joining the Eagles in free agency. He was dramatically more effective in coverage (62% success rate) than former All-Pro Harrison Smith (41%) in 2020, and it’s asking a lot for the latter 32-year-old to bounce back to his 62% and 65% rates from 2018 and 2019 when he was still in his twenties. At least Smith continues to make game-breaking plays. He had 16 defeats and five interceptions in 2020, the latter total tied for fourth-most in football.
🏈 Xavier Woods will replace Harris on a modest one-year, $2.3-million contract that reflects the disappointment of his lack of interceptions for the Cowboys in 2020. Mike Zimmer would take that if he could have a repeat of Woods’ 61% coverage success rate. Woods may fit better in Zimmer’s defense with standout instincts and football intelligence but underwhelming physical traits.
🏈 The Vikings will aim to offset any decline they see at safety with some major investments at cornerback. Those started last year with first-, third-, and fifth-round draft selections of Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler, and Harrison Hand and continued this offseason with one-year $8.0-, $4.0-, and $1.1-million contracts for Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, and Mackensie Alexander, respectively. Peterson is the big name of the bunch with three All-Pro distinctions on his resume. His recent coverage rates haven’t matched that standard, but his quotes this offseason paint him as invigorated by a new team that wants him—and ready to face his old team in Week 2.
🏈 Peterson led the NFL with 14 penalties last year, including seven defensive holding calls (three declined). It’s rare for a defensive player to lead the NFL in penalties, and Peterson had only four the year before (in 10 games).
🏈 With Dantzler showing the promise of a 56% coverage success rate to match Breeland in 2020, it may seem odd to see that latter signing, which could push Dantzler to a rotation role. But the Vikings may also be hedging their bets as Gladney faces a case of alleged assault that would carry prison time if he were convicted.
🏈 Fourth-round Cal rookie Camryn Bynum is likely not a corner investment. General manager Rick Spielman has already indicated he plans to switch the undersized but intelligent Bynum to safety like he did previously with Harris to great success.
🏈 Dan Bailey is gone after the Vikings finished dead last in placekicking for the second time in three seasons, but he leaves $2.1 million in dead money on the Vikings’ cap. His replacement will likely be either journeyman Greg Joseph or undrafted rookie Riley Patterson from Memphis. Patterson made a higher percentage of his kicks in 2019 than 2020 and has just average leg strength for kickoffs, but quotes suggest he has embraced an open competition and may hint at the necessary disposition to kick for a seemingly snake-bitten special teams unit.
🏈 Ameer Abdullah has seen his kick return average decline from 25.8 to 25.0 to 23.5 yards per return in three years in Minnesota. He returned to the team on a minimal one-year contract, but he’ll face competition for his special teams role from fourth- and fifth-round rookies Kene Nwangwu (Iowa State) and Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Iowa). Both rookies returned at least 50 kicks in their college careers. Nwangwu had the better 2020 return average of 28.9 yards, but Smith-Marsette bested him with a 28.7-yard career rate.
🏈 Veteran punter Britton Colquitt lost nearly 5.0 net yards per punt from 2019 to 2020, and he had his contract restructured and faces competition from undrafted LSU rookie and 30-year-old former minor league baseball player Zach Von Rosenberg because of it.
🏈 Neither Nwangwu nor Smith-Marsette returned punts in college, and so K.J. Osborn may get another crack at the team’s return job in his sophomore season. Both Osborn and Chad Beebe had negative value on punt returns in 2020.
🏈 Minnesota only ran the ball 32% of time when using 12 personnel, the lowest figure in the league.
🏈 The Vikings zoomed up from 31st to fifth in using empty backfields. They had a strong 7.2 yards per play from empty, but a few fumbles helped drop them to a very average 8.4% DVOA.
🏈 For the second straight year, Minnesota was very high with 10.3 yards after the catch on targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. (This figure was 11.2 yards in 2019.)
🏈 The Vikings finished last by throwing only 9% of passes to targets we designated as “other wide receivers,” i.e., not No. 1 or No. 2.
🏈 Minnesota ran a league-low 13 wide receiver or tight end screens, although they had an excellent 39.8% DVOA in this small sample.
🏈 Vikings receivers dropped only 18 passes, tied for second in the league.
🏈 After three straight years in the top five for both stats, Minnesota’s defense finished “only” 10th in both yards allowed (6.1) and DVOA (-5.8%) when blitzing.
🏈 The Vikings had no gap between where their two safeties made their average play, suggesting interchangeable safeties instead of more defined roles as free and strong safety. Minnesota has been at the bottom of the league in this stat for a few years.
🏈 Minnesota finished second with 11 coverage sacks on defense, and more than half their sacks were “non-pressure sacks” (either coverage sacks or failed scrambles).
🏈 There’s quite a dichotomy between the Vikings’ No. 1 rank in adjusted line yards and their ranks in power success (27th) and blown blocks on running plays (31st). The Vikings specialized in runs where someone got charged with a blown block but Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison gained positive yardage anyway. They had 37 such plays; no other offense had more than 30.
🏈 Riley Reiff cut his blown block rate on passes in half compared to his first three years with the Vikings, but it was still an easy decision for the team to cut him and free up $11.8 million in cap space. They may not even suffer in the transition since they snagged Virginia Tech tackle Christian Darrisaw with the 23rd overall pick after a trade down. Darrisaw is smooth and strong, though he has had struggles against edge rushers with finesse and speed.
🏈 Darrisaw continues the Vikings’ recent trend of heavy draft investment in their offensive line. But despite their rushing success, those draft picks have had mixed results. 2019 first-round center Garrett Bradbury declined from a 2.5% blown block rate as a rookie to 3.8% last year. And while he has an earned reputation as a poor pass-protector, he also blew more than twice as many run blocks in his second year (22 vs. 10) despite an almost identical total of run snaps.
🏈 2019 fourth-round guard Dru Samia blew 10.3% of his pass blocks in his first significant playing time in 2020. That was the worst of any offensive lineman with 100 or more passing snaps.
🏈 Fortunately, 2020 second-rounder Ezra Cleveland looks like a hit after a 2.5% rookie blown block rate. Cleveland and third-round rookie Wyatt Davis (Ohio State) should start on either side of Bradbury and can try to prop him up where previous guards such as Pat Elflein and Dakota Dozier could not.
🏈 Brian O’Neill was the vanguard of this revamped offensive line as a second-round selection in 2018. And while his 2.2% blown block rate in 2020 was no better than his three-year career rate, it makes him a capable starter at right tackle. If he or either rookie falters, veterans Rashod Hill and Dozier offer depth at tackle and guard after returning to the team on one-year deals.
🏈 The Vikings will have a completely new defensive line in 2021 with free-agent additions Dalvin Tomlinson and Stephen Weatherly joining COVID opt-out Michael Pierce and injury returnee Danielle Hunter. Hunter is the biggest name there and deserves to be since his 59 hurries in 2019 were the fourth-most that season. But the Vikings may gain more from the Tomlinson and Pierce additions. They had run stop rates of 75% and 71% in 2020 and 2019, respectively. Armon Watts was the team’s only regular defensive tackle with a rate better than 63% last season, and the defense as a whole had the worst adjusted line yards (5.16) and third-worst run defense DVOA (1.9% DVOA) in football.
🏈 Hunter is returning from a cervical spine disc herniation, which sounds terrifying but seems not to worry the Vikings if you believe their interviews. What worries them instead is probably Hunter’s reported dissatisfaction with his current contract and subsequent absence from OTAs. He did return for mandatory minicamp but is a threat to hold out for a new deal.
🏈 The team planned for the future with third- and fourth-round draft selections of edge rushers Patrick Jones II (Pitt) and Janarius Robinson (Florida State), but that pair will likely need time to translate their tools into NFL production. Weatherly, meanwhile, is a complementary piece. He managed just six sacks and 45 hurries in his best two seasons with the Vikings before his 2020 dalliance with the Panthers.
🏈 Linebacker Anthony Barr seldom matched the reputation that landed him four Pro Bowl berths with standout run stop or coverage success rates. He finished just 18th and 46th among linebackers in those rates in 2019, and then he missed the bulk of 2020 with a torn pectoral muscle. He was inching toward cut-candidate status until he agreed to a pay cut this offseason, telling St. Paul Pioneer Press reporter Chris Tomasson that he “didn’t want that to be [his] last memory as a Minnesota Viking.”
🏈 If anything, Eric Kendricks is underrated. He has had identical 66% coverage success rates the last two seasons and finished in the top six among linebackers. Even with Barr returning, Kendricks will be a defensive keystone in 2021 in part because tackle machine Eric Wilson departed in free agency for the Eagles and in part as a mentor to third-round rookie Chazz Surratt. Surratt was North Carolina’s quarterback before a junior year switch to defense. He’ll need to improve his feel for his new position before his exceptional speed and athleticism makes him a capable NFL starter.
🏈 Minnesota’s safety strength will likely take a hit in 2021 with Anthony Harris joining the Eagles in free agency. He was dramatically more effective in coverage (62% success rate) than former All-Pro Harrison Smith (41%) in 2020, and it’s asking a lot for the latter 32-year-old to bounce back to his 62% and 65% rates from 2018 and 2019 when he was still in his twenties. At least Smith continues to make game-breaking plays. He had 16 defeats and five interceptions in 2020, the latter total tied for fourth-most in football.
🏈 Xavier Woods will replace Harris on a modest one-year, $2.3-million contract that reflects the disappointment of his lack of interceptions for the Cowboys in 2020. Mike Zimmer would take that if he could have a repeat of Woods’ 61% coverage success rate. Woods may fit better in Zimmer’s defense with standout instincts and football intelligence but underwhelming physical traits.
🏈 The Vikings will aim to offset any decline they see at safety with some major investments at cornerback. Those started last year with first-, third-, and fifth-round draft selections of Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler, and Harrison Hand and continued this offseason with one-year $8.0-, $4.0-, and $1.1-million contracts for Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, and Mackensie Alexander, respectively. Peterson is the big name of the bunch with three All-Pro distinctions on his resume. His recent coverage rates haven’t matched that standard, but his quotes this offseason paint him as invigorated by a new team that wants him—and ready to face his old team in Week 2.
🏈 Peterson led the NFL with 14 penalties last year, including seven defensive holding calls (three declined). It’s rare for a defensive player to lead the NFL in penalties, and Peterson had only four the year before (in 10 games).
🏈 With Dantzler showing the promise of a 56% coverage success rate to match Breeland in 2020, it may seem odd to see that latter signing, which could push Dantzler to a rotation role. But the Vikings may also be hedging their bets as Gladney faces a case of alleged assault that would carry prison time if he were convicted.
🏈 Fourth-round Cal rookie Camryn Bynum is likely not a corner investment. General manager Rick Spielman has already indicated he plans to switch the undersized but intelligent Bynum to safety like he did previously with Harris to great success.
🏈 Dan Bailey is gone after the Vikings finished dead last in placekicking for the second time in three seasons, but he leaves $2.1 million in dead money on the Vikings’ cap. His replacement will likely be either journeyman Greg Joseph or undrafted rookie Riley Patterson from Memphis. Patterson made a higher percentage of his kicks in 2019 than 2020 and has just average leg strength for kickoffs, but quotes suggest he has embraced an open competition and may hint at the necessary disposition to kick for a seemingly snake-bitten special teams unit.
🏈 Ameer Abdullah has seen his kick return average decline from 25.8 to 25.0 to 23.5 yards per return in three years in Minnesota. He returned to the team on a minimal one-year contract, but he’ll face competition for his special teams role from fourth- and fifth-round rookies Kene Nwangwu (Iowa State) and Ihmir Smith-Marsette (Iowa). Both rookies returned at least 50 kicks in their college careers. Nwangwu had the better 2020 return average of 28.9 yards, but Smith-Marsette bested him with a 28.7-yard career rate.
🏈 Veteran punter Britton Colquitt lost nearly 5.0 net yards per punt from 2019 to 2020, and he had his contract restructured and faces competition from undrafted LSU rookie and 30-year-old former minor league baseball player Zach Von Rosenberg because of it.
🏈 Neither Nwangwu nor Smith-Marsette returned punts in college, and so K.J. Osborn may get another crack at the team’s return job in his sophomore season. Both Osborn and Chad Beebe had negative value on punt returns in 2020.
Actual analysis and discussion at the link:
www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2021/team/minnesota-vikings
... and neither is this Chris guy.