NFL Preseason Defensive Tendencies
Sept 7, 2021 9:28:37 GMT -6
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Post by Purple Pain on Sept 7, 2021 9:28:37 GMT -6
PFF: Why NFL preseason defensive tendencies matter when planning for the regular season by By Arjun Menon
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Full read at PFF.com link:
www.pff.com/news/nfl-preseason-defensive-tendencies-matter-planning-regular-season
PFF data scientist Timo Riske previously explored preseason offenses and determined that the preseason doesn’t tell us much. Most teams run a vanilla scheme, and their preseason offense differs from their regular-season attack because of backup quarterback and skill position players featuring in the offseason.
But while offenses decide to not show their hands most of the time, defenses are not as subtle in their play calling. In fact, defensive play calling resembles what teams play in the regular season more often than not.
ARE DEFENSIVE COVERAGES RUN AT A SIMILAR RATE IN THE PRESEASON?
To verify, looking at every preseason and regular-season game from 2015-2019 is necessary. 2020 was excluded from the data, as there was no preseason due to COVID-19. The six coverages we will be looking at are Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 2 Man, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6.
There doesn’t appear to be any big differences between the coverages used in the preseason and the regular season. Teams do like to play more Cover 1 and Cover 3 in the preseason, but those are also the most used coverages in the entire league. Thus, seeing if depth players can fit into those schemes means that teams run them more often in the preseason.
But while offenses decide to not show their hands most of the time, defenses are not as subtle in their play calling. In fact, defensive play calling resembles what teams play in the regular season more often than not.
ARE DEFENSIVE COVERAGES RUN AT A SIMILAR RATE IN THE PRESEASON?
To verify, looking at every preseason and regular-season game from 2015-2019 is necessary. 2020 was excluded from the data, as there was no preseason due to COVID-19. The six coverages we will be looking at are Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 2 Man, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6.
There doesn’t appear to be any big differences between the coverages used in the preseason and the regular season. Teams do like to play more Cover 1 and Cover 3 in the preseason, but those are also the most used coverages in the entire league. Thus, seeing if depth players can fit into those schemes means that teams run them more often in the preseason.
DO DEFENSES SHOW HOW UNIQUE THEIR SCHEME IS IN THE PRESEASON?
Earlier this summer, PFF’s Tej Seth and Ryan Weisman created their own Coverage Scheme Uniqueness Score, which essentially tells us how unique each team’s coverage scheme is compared to the rest of the NFL. When trying to see other ways that the preseason can potentially predict future performance, this came to mind. Since we had over five years’ worth of data to work from, it was a good sample size to see if preseason schemes carry over to the regular season.
To check this, we can use the uniqueness score from the regular season and preseason in the years 2015-2019. We then can train a linear regression model using two main features: previous year uniqueness score and preseason uniqueness score.
Earlier this summer, PFF’s Tej Seth and Ryan Weisman created their own Coverage Scheme Uniqueness Score, which essentially tells us how unique each team’s coverage scheme is compared to the rest of the NFL. When trying to see other ways that the preseason can potentially predict future performance, this came to mind. Since we had over five years’ worth of data to work from, it was a good sample size to see if preseason schemes carry over to the regular season.
To check this, we can use the uniqueness score from the regular season and preseason in the years 2015-2019. We then can train a linear regression model using two main features: previous year uniqueness score and preseason uniqueness score.
WHAT WILL TEAMS DO IN 2021?
PFF charts every play from every game, including the preseason. Using the coverage data, we can employ the same linear regression model and apply it to 2021 teams. However, we will use it only on teams that kept the same play caller from 2020.
Two exceptions were made here. First, Demeco Ryans was on Robert Saleh’s staff in San Francisco, so they will be used since they will utilize many of the same base concepts. Second, the Rams hired Raheem Morris, and the organization said he will use many of the same concepts Brandon Staley did in 2020. Staley also had the highest coverage uniqueness score of any play caller in 2021.
Here are the predicted uniqueness scores for this upcoming year. Don't worry, Buffalo Bills fans. As stated before, this score has nothing to do with how well a team can stop the pass; it looks only at how unique a team’s scheme is. Even with a coaching change (but similar scheme), the Rams are projected to have the highest uniqueness score of any team. In fact, Los Angeles had the second-highest uniqueness score of any defense in the entire NFL this preseason.
PFF charts every play from every game, including the preseason. Using the coverage data, we can employ the same linear regression model and apply it to 2021 teams. However, we will use it only on teams that kept the same play caller from 2020.
Two exceptions were made here. First, Demeco Ryans was on Robert Saleh’s staff in San Francisco, so they will be used since they will utilize many of the same base concepts. Second, the Rams hired Raheem Morris, and the organization said he will use many of the same concepts Brandon Staley did in 2020. Staley also had the highest coverage uniqueness score of any play caller in 2021.
Here are the predicted uniqueness scores for this upcoming year. Don't worry, Buffalo Bills fans. As stated before, this score has nothing to do with how well a team can stop the pass; it looks only at how unique a team’s scheme is. Even with a coaching change (but similar scheme), the Rams are projected to have the highest uniqueness score of any team. In fact, Los Angeles had the second-highest uniqueness score of any defense in the entire NFL this preseason.
The preseason, in general, is a time for fans to make bold claims about their team or put together 53-man roster predictions. However, the preseason is also a time where teams can scout out their opponents and find defensive tendencies, potentially game-planning for the regular season.
Unlike offenses, defenses don’t seem to run vanilla schemes. Teams talk about having a lack of film on the opposing team’s starters, but they can also prepare by looking at coverage data and seeing that teams will likely run a very similar coverage scheme to what they showed in the preseason.
Unlike offenses, defenses don’t seem to run vanilla schemes. Teams talk about having a lack of film on the opposing team’s starters, but they can also prepare by looking at coverage data and seeing that teams will likely run a very similar coverage scheme to what they showed in the preseason.
Full read at PFF.com link:
www.pff.com/news/nfl-preseason-defensive-tendencies-matter-planning-regular-season
... and neither is this Chris guy.