Vikings - Pecking Order for NFC 2021

The five NFL executives who recently stacked AFC teams are back with their 1-16 ranking of the NFC, highlighted by a bottom-three ranking for a 2020 playoff team brimming with excitement over its recent first-round pick. Consider yourself warned, Chicago Bears fans.

Though readers might find some of the results surprising, even maddening, these are compelling conversations as the 2021 season openers approach.

We’ll begin with a table showing where all 16 NFC teams finished in the ranking. Average votes were used to break ties when median results were the same. Even with that tiebreaker, two NFC West rivals finished tied for the third spot in the conference, with a third team from the division not far behind.

The table shows how each exec ranked every team in the conference.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Votes: 1-1-1-1-1 | Avg: 1.0 | Median: 1

Guessing which season Tom Brady falls off the age cliff has become futile. If anything, voters expect the 44-year-old starter to play well more consistently now that he’s in better sync with the coaching staff.

“If there is any question on offense, it might be, where does the running game go?” a voter said. “And I actually think it’s going to be improved with Giovani Bernard. I think Giovani Bernard is going to be like James White for Tom Brady. On defense, their pass rush will be improved. Joe Tryon is going to have an impact as a third guy. I don’t think there’s a weakness, in my opinion, on their defense.”

2. Green Bay Packers

Votes: 2-2-2-2-3 | Avg: 2.2 | Median: 2

While the Buccaneers brought back everyone of consequence, the Packers came close. They parted with veteran center Corey Linsley and will replace him with rookie second-round pick Josh Myers. Left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss at least the first six games following offseason knee surgery.

“They will be allowed to work out some of the kinks in that division,” one voter said. “As long as they have the quarterback healthy, I am not betting against them.”

Another voter wasn’t willing to bet on the Packers beyond the NFC North, citing concerns about defensive scheming under a new coordinator. Two voters also questioned whether the receiving corps beyond Davante Adams would perform as well as it did last season.

“I don’t know who else would win that division,” a voter said, “but as far as like contending for the Super Bowl, would I be willing to say it’s going to be Tampa and Green Bay? No, not at all.”

T-3. Los Angeles Rams

Votes: 4-4-3-6-2 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4

The Rams tied Seattle for third in the conference, with slightly more variance between high and low votes for Los Angeles.

“I’m going Tampa one, Rams two,” one voter said. “I’m buying (Matthew) Stafford on a better team with a better defense in a new environment, with a new challenge. Sometimes with veteran players at the end, you see that big bump when they switch teams. They have to re-prove themselves. They’re reenergized. They’ve got a little bit more of an edge to them. I think we’re going to see the best of Stafford.”

Stafford’s Lions teams finished ahead of Green Bay once in the NFC North. That was in 2017, when the 9-7 Lions finished second to Minnesota. Green Bay was 7-9 that year as Brett Hundley started nine games for the injured Aaron Rodgers.

The voter who placed the Rams sixth worried about coaching attrition after defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and passing game coordinator Shane Waldron left for promotions.

“You are happy for them, but you can’t keep flipping out your coordinators,” this voter said. “I get that Sean (McVay) is the offensive coordinator, but this is now his third D-coordinator in three years.”

T-3. Seattle Seahawks

Votes: 3-3-4-4-5 | Avg: 3.8 | Median: 4

The Seahawks averaged 22.3 offensive points per game over their final nine last season, counting playoffs. That was down from 34.0 on average through the first eight. The schedule was a factor, but it wasn’t everything. Seattle is now healthier at running back, healthier and more proven on the offensive line, deeper at receiver, younger at tight end and more interesting at offensive coordinator with Waldron leaving the Rams for Seattle.

“I think the play-action and those things are going to fit Russell (Wilson) well,” a voter said. “If they could play good defense — steady, consistent defense — you’ve got a chance every week because of the quarterback.”

Cornerback is the biggest question mark on defense, but not the only one.

“I’m putting it all on the fact that OK, it’s on the quarterback, but I also think they will be better in the run game,” a voter who ranked Seattle third in the conference said. “They got decimated in the run game last year. Chris Carson is back, Rashaad Penny is healthy and even Alex Collins has played before. Dee Eskridge, once he gets into a flow, will be a good third option with (DK) Metcalf and (Tyler) Lockett.”

5. San Francisco 49ers

Votes: 5-9-5-10-4 | Avg: 6.6 | Median: 5

The range of projected NFC rankings jumps beginning with the 49ers, as the six spots separating highest and lowest votes reflects divergent expectations.

“They’ve got a good (offensive) line, I think they have a great pass rush,” one voter said. “They have an average secondary and some good playmakers on defense. They have average skill, but part of the problem with their skill is, and this is the problem with their whole roster, yeah, when these guys are healthy, they are good, but they are hurt a lot.”

Perception might be stronger than reality on the injury front. The 49ers’ No. 1 ranking in Weighted AV Lost to injury last season marked the first time under coach Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco ranked higher than 15th among hardest-hit teams in that category. The injuries have seemed worse because the team was expecting so much from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in 2018, before he established himself as a full-time starter. The high-profile injuries did not become more widespread until Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Weston Richburg, Deebo Samuel, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas and George Kittle joined Garoppolo in missing time last season.

The voter ranking San Francisco 10th thought the pass rush was overrated beyond Bosa and Arik Armstead. This voter also thought the defense could miss former coordinator Robert Saleh. Most of the voters’ focus was on the quarterback situation, naturally.

“If they go with Jimmy, then they’re probably going to end up competing for a playoff spot,” one voter said. “If it’s Trey (Lance) and he ascends, then they are going to be competing for a division title. If it’s Trey and he’s not that good, then build for next year.”

6. New Orleans Saints

Votes: 7-11-8-3-6 | Avg: 7.0 | Median: 7

The Saints could be relocating for the season’s first month following Hurricane Ida, which would seem to put them at a disadvantage. They are also going into a season without Drew Brees for the first time since 2005, when Jim Haslett was head coach and Mike Sheppard was calling the offensive plays.

Voters disagreed over how well Jameis Winston would fare in Sean Payton’s offense.

“Having a year off the field with Sean and around Drew, I think that helps,” one voter said. “Obviously, he humbled himself going there, and I think it was a great move bringing him in. Just a couple of throws he made the other night, not too many people are making those throws. New Orleans will be able to attack more of the field this year than they could with Drew’s limitations in arm strength.”

Winston famously tossed 30 interceptions in his final season with Tampa Bay. He never tossed more than 18 in an NFL season previously.

“I think the quarterback is going to be bad, but they got a good line and they have a good defense,” another voter said. “They got good coaching. Maybe they’ll be able to run the ball and play good defense and trick some teams, but if Jameis is going to throw the ball as many times as he did in Tampa, they are going to have problems. He was intercepted 30 times and sacked 47. That’s awful, and that’s not luck. These are problems throughout his career.”

7. Dallas Cowboys

Votes: 6-7-6-9-8 | Avg: 7.2 | Median: 7

Voters bunched New Orleans, Dallas and Minnesota together as teams that could contend for the playoffs without threatening the top teams ultimately. Philadelphia, Arizona and Washington may be in there somewhere also.

“Now you’re in a real, just shake up the bottle, it’s going to come out different every week — who is playing well, who is healthy,” the voter who ranked Dallas eighth said.

There will be no easing into the season with Tampa Bay on the schedule in Week 1. Dak Prescott will be facing a Buccaneers defense that chased Patrick Mahomes so relentlessly in the Super Bowl that Kansas City felt compelled to remake its offensive line.

“Dak is coming off a major rehab and he gets something else with his arm and you get these odd reports that this is going to be a lingering issue as a thrower,” another voter said. “The whole NFC East, nobody knows what it is. We all know what the questions are for every team. For Dallas, can they at least give themselves a chance defensively? They should be better hiring a coordinator (Dan Quinn) whose defense fits their personnel better.”

8. Minnesota Vikings

Votes: 9-13-7-5-7 | Avg: 8.2 | Median: 7

The eight-spot spread between highest (fifth) and lowest (13th) votes for Minnesota is the largest for any team ranked among the top 10 in the conference.

“I don’t know what direction they are heading in, whether it’s up or down,” a voter who ranked Minnesota seventh said. “Once they paid the quarterback, the complexion of that team changes dramatically and they have stretched themselves and retained a lot of veteran players defensively, but do they have the horses to play the way they want to defensively?”

Four games against Chicago and Detroit could help.

“I think it is going to be a well-coached team and will have some toughness,” another voter said. “They got a chance to win a good handful games in the division, which gives you a chance to compete for a wild card possibly.”