Post by Funkytown on Aug 22, 2021 21:59:02 GMT -6
The Vikings Early Down Dilemma by Spencer Thompson
More analysis at link:
thompsonnfl.medium.com/the-vikings-early-down-dilemma-64d56c7d5989
After worsening performance at the position culminated in a “Charmin Ultra Soft” interior defensive line last year, the Vikings signed Dalvin Tomlinson and brought back Sheldon Richardson to beef up a DT room with last year’s keynote signing Michael Pierce. These three signings are objectively good and address multiple issues that have plagued the Vikings for a while, but there could be a few unintended byproducts that negatively impact the defense as a whole.
Too Much Talent?
The Vikes defensive tackle room has the previously mentioned big three of Pierce, Tomlinson, and Richardson along with Armon Watts, James Lynch, and rookie Jaylen Twyman. Pierce’s selling point is his run defense, Richardson’s is his ability to get after the QB, while Tomlinson does both at a relatively high level. Since only two DTs can be on the field at the same time, Mike Zimmer has to decide which duo he wants out there.
Why does this matter though? Zimmer, theoretically, has to make a choice each play, sacrifice an interior pass rush or sacrifice run defense. The pass rush would be better with Richardson or Watts out there, but the run defense would be better with Pierce or Tomlinson. There’s a ton of factors that make this decision much easier and less black & white (down & distance, personnel, etc.), but either the best run defender of the 3 (Pierce), best pass rusher of the 3 (Richardson), or the best of the 3 (Tomlinson) will have to be on the sidelines. Interior pressure is hard to come by, but extremely detrimental to opposing offenses, at the same time having a beefy interior defensive line is crucial to neutralizing opposing run games.
That’s only half the equation though, the defense still answers to offense, and offenses are pretty smart these days. Not only do the analytics favor passing on early downs, but whatever personnel the defense has out there, the offense will try to attack. If I were an offensive coordinator and I see Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson out there, I’d be more likely to pass than if it were Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson. This potential connection between defensive tackles and run/pass ratios is definitely something I’ll be monitoring throughout the season to see how opposing offenses attack the Vikings defense, and how Zim adapts.
While this issue is important and one worth monitoring, I’d much rather theorize a solution to which of my 3 good DTs have to sit than not have 3 good DTs in the first place.
Pass Rush Problems
While the interior of the defensive line suffers from too much talent, the edge group has suffered from not enough talent since the departure of longtime starter Everson Griffen. Since then, Danielle Hunter underwent surgery after missing the entire season, the Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue, traded him away, brought back Stephen Weatherly, and drafted a few defensive ends. But, is it enough?
In the last full season with at least one starting caliber edge rusher (2019), Everson Griffen led the team with about 18% of pass rush snaps getting doubled with Danielle Hunter coming in at around 14.5%. Comparing those rates to the rest of the league, Griffen ranked 25th and Hunter barely cracked the Top 40 at 38th. The relatively low double team rates Griff and Hunter saw in 2019 could partially be credited with their individual success and the team’s success as a whole rushing the passer. With no legitimate threat opposite Hunter, on top of him returning from a season-ending neck injury, it’s fair to assume a couple things… 1) Hunter won’t be as productive as he was before due to increased doubles and 2) the Vikings pass rush won’t be as productive as it was in 2019-prior.
Outside of Hunter, the Vikings have a deep group that lacks a clear-cut starter at RDE. Sophomore DJ Wonnum, converted DT Hercules Mata’afa, Jalyn Holmes, and rookies Patrick Jones III & Janarius Robinson all look to beat out the projected starter: Ex-Viking Stephen Weatherly. While all are intriguing in their own right, it takes some projecting to assume that Weatherly won’t be the starter. The only issue with that is Weatherly is coming off his worst year yet and likely isn’t the quality starter the Vikings need. Of course, Jones or Wonnum can breakout and win the job, but I don’t like the odds of any of the aforementioned players breaking out into a quality starter.
However, that 2019 Vikings defense was constructed in such a way that forced the team to rely on their pass rush. The corner group was weak relative to the rest of the league, where that position is one of the strengths on the 2021 team. I feel pretty confident saying the Vikings 2021 pass rush won’t be as good as the 2019 unit, but I don’t know how much that matters now that the secondary looks a lot better. It still is a problem the Vikings need to solve if they want to field another elite defense, but it likely won’t stop them from being good.
The Path of Least Resistance
Another subject that is extremely relevant given the Vikings presumed pass rush issues and strong run defense is the impact a good run defense has on how opposing offenses attack the defense. The basic premise is the better a team’s run defense is, the more likely an offense is to pass, and vice versa. This is supported with recent findings from FiveThirtyEight below and from a logical standpoint, especially if you subscribe to the more analytical idea of passing > rushing.
The FiveThirtyEight findings in the graph above show the correlation between how good a team’s run defense is (Rushing EPA allowed) and the change in how offenses attack said defense (opposing offense’s pass rate over expected). With all the additions to the defensive line, the return of Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, and other free agent signings like Nick Vigil and Xavier Woods, the Vikings defense should be sound against the run. Which could lead to an above-expected pass rate, notably on early downs where the bias skews more towards rushing.
Going back to my first point about which defensive tackles Zimmer has on the field, if the duo is better at stopping the run, the defense as a whole is better at stopping the run, which could lead to a pass rate above expected.
All the issues discussed in this article could converge and manifest on the early, run-heavy downs. On early downs, the most common DT combination will likely be Tomlinson and Pierce, which hinders the pass rush and potentially alters the pass rate, the presence of a strong run defense can increase the pass rate, and the weak(er) pass rush hurts the Vikings defense as a whole against the increased passing volume.
Too Much Talent?
The Vikes defensive tackle room has the previously mentioned big three of Pierce, Tomlinson, and Richardson along with Armon Watts, James Lynch, and rookie Jaylen Twyman. Pierce’s selling point is his run defense, Richardson’s is his ability to get after the QB, while Tomlinson does both at a relatively high level. Since only two DTs can be on the field at the same time, Mike Zimmer has to decide which duo he wants out there.
Why does this matter though? Zimmer, theoretically, has to make a choice each play, sacrifice an interior pass rush or sacrifice run defense. The pass rush would be better with Richardson or Watts out there, but the run defense would be better with Pierce or Tomlinson. There’s a ton of factors that make this decision much easier and less black & white (down & distance, personnel, etc.), but either the best run defender of the 3 (Pierce), best pass rusher of the 3 (Richardson), or the best of the 3 (Tomlinson) will have to be on the sidelines. Interior pressure is hard to come by, but extremely detrimental to opposing offenses, at the same time having a beefy interior defensive line is crucial to neutralizing opposing run games.
That’s only half the equation though, the defense still answers to offense, and offenses are pretty smart these days. Not only do the analytics favor passing on early downs, but whatever personnel the defense has out there, the offense will try to attack. If I were an offensive coordinator and I see Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson out there, I’d be more likely to pass than if it were Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson. This potential connection between defensive tackles and run/pass ratios is definitely something I’ll be monitoring throughout the season to see how opposing offenses attack the Vikings defense, and how Zim adapts.
While this issue is important and one worth monitoring, I’d much rather theorize a solution to which of my 3 good DTs have to sit than not have 3 good DTs in the first place.
Pass Rush Problems
While the interior of the defensive line suffers from too much talent, the edge group has suffered from not enough talent since the departure of longtime starter Everson Griffen. Since then, Danielle Hunter underwent surgery after missing the entire season, the Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue, traded him away, brought back Stephen Weatherly, and drafted a few defensive ends. But, is it enough?
In the last full season with at least one starting caliber edge rusher (2019), Everson Griffen led the team with about 18% of pass rush snaps getting doubled with Danielle Hunter coming in at around 14.5%. Comparing those rates to the rest of the league, Griffen ranked 25th and Hunter barely cracked the Top 40 at 38th. The relatively low double team rates Griff and Hunter saw in 2019 could partially be credited with their individual success and the team’s success as a whole rushing the passer. With no legitimate threat opposite Hunter, on top of him returning from a season-ending neck injury, it’s fair to assume a couple things… 1) Hunter won’t be as productive as he was before due to increased doubles and 2) the Vikings pass rush won’t be as productive as it was in 2019-prior.
Outside of Hunter, the Vikings have a deep group that lacks a clear-cut starter at RDE. Sophomore DJ Wonnum, converted DT Hercules Mata’afa, Jalyn Holmes, and rookies Patrick Jones III & Janarius Robinson all look to beat out the projected starter: Ex-Viking Stephen Weatherly. While all are intriguing in their own right, it takes some projecting to assume that Weatherly won’t be the starter. The only issue with that is Weatherly is coming off his worst year yet and likely isn’t the quality starter the Vikings need. Of course, Jones or Wonnum can breakout and win the job, but I don’t like the odds of any of the aforementioned players breaking out into a quality starter.
However, that 2019 Vikings defense was constructed in such a way that forced the team to rely on their pass rush. The corner group was weak relative to the rest of the league, where that position is one of the strengths on the 2021 team. I feel pretty confident saying the Vikings 2021 pass rush won’t be as good as the 2019 unit, but I don’t know how much that matters now that the secondary looks a lot better. It still is a problem the Vikings need to solve if they want to field another elite defense, but it likely won’t stop them from being good.
The Path of Least Resistance
Another subject that is extremely relevant given the Vikings presumed pass rush issues and strong run defense is the impact a good run defense has on how opposing offenses attack the defense. The basic premise is the better a team’s run defense is, the more likely an offense is to pass, and vice versa. This is supported with recent findings from FiveThirtyEight below and from a logical standpoint, especially if you subscribe to the more analytical idea of passing > rushing.
The FiveThirtyEight findings in the graph above show the correlation between how good a team’s run defense is (Rushing EPA allowed) and the change in how offenses attack said defense (opposing offense’s pass rate over expected). With all the additions to the defensive line, the return of Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, and other free agent signings like Nick Vigil and Xavier Woods, the Vikings defense should be sound against the run. Which could lead to an above-expected pass rate, notably on early downs where the bias skews more towards rushing.
Going back to my first point about which defensive tackles Zimmer has on the field, if the duo is better at stopping the run, the defense as a whole is better at stopping the run, which could lead to a pass rate above expected.
All the issues discussed in this article could converge and manifest on the early, run-heavy downs. On early downs, the most common DT combination will likely be Tomlinson and Pierce, which hinders the pass rush and potentially alters the pass rate, the presence of a strong run defense can increase the pass rate, and the weak(er) pass rush hurts the Vikings defense as a whole against the increased passing volume.
More analysis at link:
thompsonnfl.medium.com/the-vikings-early-down-dilemma-64d56c7d5989
... and neither is this Chris guy.