Post by whoskmoon on Jun 3, 2021 7:00:29 GMT -6
Dalvin Cook averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 312 carries. That 5.0 ypc is 13th in the NFL; or 11th among RBs if you exclude Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray's stats as QBs.
Cousins' averaged 8.3 yards per attempt, which was good for 2nd in the NFL behind Deshawn Watson. This was up from 2019 when he was 7th averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
So even if Cousins regresses slightly in terms It seems like there is more opportunity to differentiate the team from the rest of the field by relying on the higher ranked outcome. The counter argument is if Cousins has too many untimely mistakes that put the team in a hole. However, on average he is pretty good (high completion %, YPA, int rate), so more volume seems like it would increase the odds of him reaching that that average performance (knowing that average for Cousins is a pretty good passer)
So yeah, I agree, I'd like to see more pass-pass-run than run-run-pass to start out drives - there's better odds for a better outcome there.
Instead, most teams run as much as they can. Why?
Looking at the numbers, it is because running well does actually lead to winning.
These are the top 10 teams in terms of YPA on rushes in the first half of games since 2018 (2nd half you have some running out the clock stuff that skews rushing numbers a bit):
Bal
KC
Sea
SF
GB
CAR
MIN
NOR
TEN
NYG
Now lets look at the teams with the most wins over that time:
KC
NOR
BAL
SEA
GB
LAR
NE
BUF
TN
PIT
That is a pretty big correlation there. The top 5 teams in wins are all top 10 in rushing.
You don't really see that correlation with the top 10 efficient passing teams:
KC
TB
Oak
LAC
IND
NOR
LAR
ATL
MIN
CLE
Interesting to note that the only team to be in the top 10 in both of those categories that is not in the top 10 in wins is the Vikings.
never gonna happen
never gonna happen
... and neither is this Chris guy.