Odds of Rick picking a bust OL RD1
Apr 29, 2021 16:25:39 GMT -6
vikingpitbull and giveu1guess like this
Post by Uncle on Apr 29, 2021 16:25:39 GMT -6
Teddy was playing a solid level heading into 2016, but has since been resigned to journeyman QB, which is not Rd 1 QB material.
I also defined a simple "hit" or "bust" rate on each Rd 1 pick in Rick's tenure - yes, that's a rather simplified way to view things because there are many grey areas, but in the interest of trying to come to a fairly logical estimate of the odds an OL pick in 2021 was going to "bust" or not, that's what I used.
Floyd, and Bridewater are clearly not busts as they were starters on playoff teams when their careers were abruptly ended with Vikings, Floyd due to possible malpractice and Teddy needed 2 years to rehab and he is/has been the starting QB for teams in the league.
Kalil played at an all pro level and stated for several years for the Vikings, he was never the same as he was his rookie year but injuries also shortened his career.
Hughes could be a bust but multiple injuries have had their effect on him. People just hatted that a CB was drafted.
Tre Waynes was not a bust, he played 5 years with the Vikes and started for 4 years plus. Only reason he didn't stay with Vikes is they couldn't afford him. Not a bust
Patterson as an NFL player not a bust, as a WR I will agree he is a bust. But still in the league as a great STer.
Bradbury TBD
Gladney TBD
If this is truly a simple hit or miss list you are being far to criticall The average NFL career is just over 3 years IIRC. There are players here that are in their 2nd and 3rd contracts that you are listing as busts. That doesn't seem to fit in my oppinion.
They may not have been home runs for the Vikings but Busts is an exageration. I see 3 -4 busts and 2 TBDs.
The two players we selected in the Top 15 during Rick's tenure - Kalil & Waynes - did not play at a "blue-chip" level during their tenure w/ the Vikings. Kalil had a Pro Bowl rookie year in 2012 (not All Pro) and then his play fell off the table. Coming out of college he was so good that Tyron Smith was relegated to play RT for USC because of Kalil so he came into the NFL w/ "blue-chip" LT expectations and he never lived up to them, while Smith went on to be a premier NFL LT for the Cowboys. Given where he was drafted in the Top 5, I'd say Kalil was a bust.
Waynes never lived up to his billing as the 1st CB selected at #11 overall in 2015. He was constantly flagged early (7th most in NFL in 2016) and he hardly developed into a 1st Rd / Top 15 coverage CB: opposing QB's completed a large number of attempts when targeting Waynes - during the 2018 season, opposing QBs connected on 63.8% of such attempts. During the 2019 season, it was 74% - mostly because Waynes played way off his opponent and kept drives alive.
As far as Bradbury, when you take a C at #19 in the Draft, they better be much better in pass protection than what Bradbury has shown his first two seasons. Again, in the 1st Round you want a player who's at an above-average level than the rest of the NFL players, and this is what Bradbury has produced in two seasons, "In 2019, Bradbury finished dead last in PFF's pass blocking grades, out of 36 qualified centers. His solid run blocking pushed him up to 29th overall, which still isn't great. In 2020, Bradbury once again finished dead last in pass blocking grade, with his run blocking pushing him up to 26th overall out of 38 centers. That's not what the Vikings were hoping for when they selected him in the first round" (link). Honestly, if we wanted that level of production, we could have drafted someone on Day 2 or Day 3.
We'll just have to agree to disagree...relative to where they were drafted, they're "busts".
... and neither is this Chris guy.
