Post by Jor-El on Mar 31, 2021 15:50:11 GMT -6
I think far too much about the outcome of the Vikings’ drafts, and last night I went through a list of all our picks since Mike Zimmer became coach, because I wanted to see how this team does with developing players – not with using veteran free agents, or even high draft picks that are often pretty NFL-ready, but with guys that we draft knowing they need improvement.
This is a bit long, so I’m going to put some observations first, but I did include full lists at the end for anyone willing to read deeper. So, in no particular order…
• Andre Patterson: Folks…what is the deal?!?! Oh, I know: Danielle Hunter. Awesome success. But is that enough? Every time someone talks about some impressive draft prospect the Vikings could consider, they excitedly say something like, “Imagine how Andre Patterson could mold him!!” I don’t buy the idea he molded Everson Griffen or Brian Robison, and Linvalle Joseph improved somewhat after coming to Minnesota, but all 3 of those were established pro defensive linemen before Patterson met them. I understand that Patterson has some reputation from long before he joined Zimmer’s staff, but in the past 7 years he has groomed Danielle Hunter and then had a series of flops like Scott Crichton, Jaleel Johnson, and touted UFA project Datone Jones. Every year we have some “physical freak” like Ade Aruna or Tashawn Bower or even Jalyn Holmes who have all the tools like Hunter, and Patterson has developed none of them. I can't disregard Hunter, but hitting just 1 towering home run does not erase every strikeout, and only doing it once looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut.
• Zimmer: What, exactly, does the “Cornerback Whisperer” actually whisper in the ears of our defensive backs? We have picked 15 DBs in the past 7 years and don’t have much to show for it. He had 2 talented but raw young CBs here when he arrived, in Xavier Rhodes and Josh Robinson. Someone – Zimmer or Jonathon Gannon? - got Rhodes to reach his peak, but Zimmer seemed to take a personal interest in running Robinson out of town, even saying “no more short cornerbacks” (and then drafting 2 CBs in round 1 who were the same height as Robinson). Rhodes started to have issues, maybe due to confidence or needing to adjust to having a bit less speed, and Zimmer threw up his hands. Overall, we are completely reliant on getting our players in the 1st or 2nd round, with the potential exception of Cam Dantzler in the 3rd. But every DB picked after round 2? Bust. Can he only "coach up" top-level prospects?
• If you have a son who plays college football and he gets picked by the Vikings in round 4, make sure he gets to work on his insurance license or some other line of work. If you believe in per-round trends, this is stronger than the one about our relative success in round 2: we FAIL, ALWAYS, in the 4th round. No success beyond the “honorary starter” role Ben Gedeon had for about a year. Sorry DJ Wonnum, the odds are stacked badly against you.
• I should just cut to the chase, because we’re all curious who the Vikings are going to draft in a few weeks, and yes, I do happen to know. This is not a mock, but the actual Vikings 2021 Draft:
1. Probable starter
3A. 50% chance starter
3B. 50% chance starter
4A. Training Camp Fodder
4B. Training Camp Fodder
4C. Training Camp Fodder
4D. Training Camp Fodder
5A. Training Camp Fodder
5B. Training Camp Fodder
6. Training Camp Fodder
Sorry, but statistically, we get nothing on day 3 (rounds 4-7), and didn’t 2020 just prove that? We threw guys like Jalyn Holmes, Jaleel Johnson, Shamar Stephen, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Kris Boyd, Dru Samia into the fire due to injury and they were not up to playing in the NFL, not even part-time. Yes, they are backups, but they are BAD backups. When can you remember a starter going down and a few weeks later saying, "hey his backup really proved he can play, we didn't miss a beat!" ?? Diggs and O'Neill, I know - but in both those cases, the coaches were essentially forced to put them in, and they replaced "starters" who never should have been starting. Diggs was kept on the bench until Charles Johnson was hurt...can you believe that??
IMO, this has become a crucial problem because many years the Vikings suffer injuries. Hey – every NFL team does. Someone posted excellent research here last week showing that the Vikings actually had pretty typical injury problems compared to other teams in 2020, and fared better than several that made the playoffs. The obvious answer here is that other teams have better depth. From what I see, we are a team with some impressive players on the outer crust, but nothing supporting them. We have Pro Bowlers and we have Tackling Dummies, with nothing between.
As I have said elsewhere, I can’t tell with certainty who is to blame, but I lean towards our positional coaches. Someone is likely to give me some quotes from players raving about how they love playing for Patterson or Zimmer to refute my conclusion. So what? Who badmouths their boss? Besides, players said they loved playing for Leslie Frazier, and by all accounts he is a fine person. But players do not necessarily excel with someone they like. Sometimes they learn more from coaches that make them mad.
Vikings Drafts, 2014-2020 by position
QB
Teddy Bridgewater 1 2014
Nate Stanley 7 2020
There isn’t much to say here, aside from: we don’t draft many QBs. We used a 1st and got one who became a starter, so that’s good.
RB
Jerrick McKinnon 3 2014
Dalvin Cook 2 2017
Alexander Mattison 3 2019
We either draft RBs in the first 3 rounds or not at all. All of these have been good players.
TE
MyCole Pruitt 5 2015
David Morgan 6 2016
Bucky Hodges 6 2017
Tyler Conklin 5 2018
Irv Smith 2 2019
For a while, you could count on Spielman drafting a TE every year, but he skipped in 2020. Tyler Conklin showed some signs of improvement last year but otherwise, anyone drafted after round 2 is gone.
WR
Stefon Diggs 5 2015
Laquon Treadwell 1 2016
Moritz Boehringer 6 2016
Rodney Adams 5 2017
Stacy Coley 7 2017
Dillon Mitchell 7 2019
Bisi Johnson 7 2019
Justin Jefferson 1 2020
KJ Osborn 5 2020
Diggs was a huge success, and notable for coming in round 5. Otherwise, we were 50-50 in the first round but after that, throwing darts wearing a blindfold.
OL
David Yankey 5 2014
TJ Clemmings 4 2015
Tyrus Thompson 6 2015
Austin Shepherd 7 2015
Willie Beavers 4 2016
Pat Elflein 3 2017
Danny Isidora 5 2017
Brian O’Neill 2 2018
Colby Gossett 6 2018
Garrett Bradbury 1 2019
Dru Samia 4 2019
Oli Udoh 6 2019
Ezra Cleveland 2 2020
Blake Brandel 6 2020
Kyle Hinton 7 2020
I’m not even sure if this is worth discussing. From this point on, get used to hearing, “no decent players drafted after round 2”.
DL
Scott Crichton 3 2014
Shamar Stephen 7 2014
Danielle Hunter 3 2015
BJ Dubose 6 2015
Stephen Weatherly 7 2016
Jaleel Johnson 4 2017
Ifeadi Odenigbo 7 2017
Jalyn Holmes 4 2018
Ade Aruna 6 2018
Armon Watts 6 2019
DJ Wonnum 4 2020
James Lynch 4 2020
Kenny Willekes 7 2020
I already ranted about this above, but it’s one area where I feel people give Andre Patterson far too much credit. Look at that list: Hunter, a possible role player in Weatherly, and nothing else.
LB
Anthony Barr 1 2014
Brandon Watts 7 2014
Eric Kendricks 2 2015
Edmond Robinson 7 2015
Kentrell Brothers 5 2016
Ben Gedeon 4 2017
Elijah Lee 7 2017
Eric Wilson UDFA 2017
Devante Downs 7 2018
Cameron Smith 5 2019
Troy Dye 4 2020
Same story: We can get good players in round 1-2, nothing after. I did add in Wilson as a UDFA development (and Harris, below) to provide a bit of “extra credit”. Maybe our coaches are more directly involved in selecting undrafted free agents than draftees?
DB
Antone Exum 6 2014
Kendall James 6 2014
Jabari Price 7 2014
Trae Waynes 1 2015
Anthony Harris UDFA 2015
Mackensie Alexander 2 2016
Jayron Kearse 7 2016
Jack Tocho 7 2017
Mike Hughes 1 2018
Marcus Epps 6 2019
Kris Boyd 7 2019
Jeff Gladney 1 2020
Cameron Dantzler 3 2020
Harrison Hand 5 2020
Josh Metellus 6 2020
Brian Cole 7 2020
Do I need to say it again? OK, Jayron Kearse became a good ST player. That’s OK for one particular 7th-rounder, but it’s not enough to show for all those picks. And Kearse had all the talent you could want, a perfect candidate for a player in need of a great coach to motivate and teach him.
Hey...is someone still reading this? Go home, the movie's over....
(Thanks for reading any of this!)
This is a bit long, so I’m going to put some observations first, but I did include full lists at the end for anyone willing to read deeper. So, in no particular order…
• Andre Patterson: Folks…what is the deal?!?! Oh, I know: Danielle Hunter. Awesome success. But is that enough? Every time someone talks about some impressive draft prospect the Vikings could consider, they excitedly say something like, “Imagine how Andre Patterson could mold him!!” I don’t buy the idea he molded Everson Griffen or Brian Robison, and Linvalle Joseph improved somewhat after coming to Minnesota, but all 3 of those were established pro defensive linemen before Patterson met them. I understand that Patterson has some reputation from long before he joined Zimmer’s staff, but in the past 7 years he has groomed Danielle Hunter and then had a series of flops like Scott Crichton, Jaleel Johnson, and touted UFA project Datone Jones. Every year we have some “physical freak” like Ade Aruna or Tashawn Bower or even Jalyn Holmes who have all the tools like Hunter, and Patterson has developed none of them. I can't disregard Hunter, but hitting just 1 towering home run does not erase every strikeout, and only doing it once looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut.
• Zimmer: What, exactly, does the “Cornerback Whisperer” actually whisper in the ears of our defensive backs? We have picked 15 DBs in the past 7 years and don’t have much to show for it. He had 2 talented but raw young CBs here when he arrived, in Xavier Rhodes and Josh Robinson. Someone – Zimmer or Jonathon Gannon? - got Rhodes to reach his peak, but Zimmer seemed to take a personal interest in running Robinson out of town, even saying “no more short cornerbacks” (and then drafting 2 CBs in round 1 who were the same height as Robinson). Rhodes started to have issues, maybe due to confidence or needing to adjust to having a bit less speed, and Zimmer threw up his hands. Overall, we are completely reliant on getting our players in the 1st or 2nd round, with the potential exception of Cam Dantzler in the 3rd. But every DB picked after round 2? Bust. Can he only "coach up" top-level prospects?
• If you have a son who plays college football and he gets picked by the Vikings in round 4, make sure he gets to work on his insurance license or some other line of work. If you believe in per-round trends, this is stronger than the one about our relative success in round 2: we FAIL, ALWAYS, in the 4th round. No success beyond the “honorary starter” role Ben Gedeon had for about a year. Sorry DJ Wonnum, the odds are stacked badly against you.
• I should just cut to the chase, because we’re all curious who the Vikings are going to draft in a few weeks, and yes, I do happen to know. This is not a mock, but the actual Vikings 2021 Draft:
1. Probable starter
3A. 50% chance starter
3B. 50% chance starter
4A. Training Camp Fodder
4B. Training Camp Fodder
4C. Training Camp Fodder
4D. Training Camp Fodder
5A. Training Camp Fodder
5B. Training Camp Fodder
6. Training Camp Fodder
Sorry, but statistically, we get nothing on day 3 (rounds 4-7), and didn’t 2020 just prove that? We threw guys like Jalyn Holmes, Jaleel Johnson, Shamar Stephen, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Kris Boyd, Dru Samia into the fire due to injury and they were not up to playing in the NFL, not even part-time. Yes, they are backups, but they are BAD backups. When can you remember a starter going down and a few weeks later saying, "hey his backup really proved he can play, we didn't miss a beat!" ?? Diggs and O'Neill, I know - but in both those cases, the coaches were essentially forced to put them in, and they replaced "starters" who never should have been starting. Diggs was kept on the bench until Charles Johnson was hurt...can you believe that??
IMO, this has become a crucial problem because many years the Vikings suffer injuries. Hey – every NFL team does. Someone posted excellent research here last week showing that the Vikings actually had pretty typical injury problems compared to other teams in 2020, and fared better than several that made the playoffs. The obvious answer here is that other teams have better depth. From what I see, we are a team with some impressive players on the outer crust, but nothing supporting them. We have Pro Bowlers and we have Tackling Dummies, with nothing between.
As I have said elsewhere, I can’t tell with certainty who is to blame, but I lean towards our positional coaches. Someone is likely to give me some quotes from players raving about how they love playing for Patterson or Zimmer to refute my conclusion. So what? Who badmouths their boss? Besides, players said they loved playing for Leslie Frazier, and by all accounts he is a fine person. But players do not necessarily excel with someone they like. Sometimes they learn more from coaches that make them mad.
Vikings Drafts, 2014-2020 by position
QB
Teddy Bridgewater 1 2014
Nate Stanley 7 2020
There isn’t much to say here, aside from: we don’t draft many QBs. We used a 1st and got one who became a starter, so that’s good.
RB
Jerrick McKinnon 3 2014
Dalvin Cook 2 2017
Alexander Mattison 3 2019
We either draft RBs in the first 3 rounds or not at all. All of these have been good players.
TE
MyCole Pruitt 5 2015
David Morgan 6 2016
Bucky Hodges 6 2017
Tyler Conklin 5 2018
Irv Smith 2 2019
For a while, you could count on Spielman drafting a TE every year, but he skipped in 2020. Tyler Conklin showed some signs of improvement last year but otherwise, anyone drafted after round 2 is gone.
WR
Stefon Diggs 5 2015
Laquon Treadwell 1 2016
Moritz Boehringer 6 2016
Rodney Adams 5 2017
Stacy Coley 7 2017
Dillon Mitchell 7 2019
Bisi Johnson 7 2019
Justin Jefferson 1 2020
KJ Osborn 5 2020
Diggs was a huge success, and notable for coming in round 5. Otherwise, we were 50-50 in the first round but after that, throwing darts wearing a blindfold.
OL
David Yankey 5 2014
TJ Clemmings 4 2015
Tyrus Thompson 6 2015
Austin Shepherd 7 2015
Willie Beavers 4 2016
Pat Elflein 3 2017
Danny Isidora 5 2017
Brian O’Neill 2 2018
Colby Gossett 6 2018
Garrett Bradbury 1 2019
Dru Samia 4 2019
Oli Udoh 6 2019
Ezra Cleveland 2 2020
Blake Brandel 6 2020
Kyle Hinton 7 2020
I’m not even sure if this is worth discussing. From this point on, get used to hearing, “no decent players drafted after round 2”.
DL
Scott Crichton 3 2014
Shamar Stephen 7 2014
Danielle Hunter 3 2015
BJ Dubose 6 2015
Stephen Weatherly 7 2016
Jaleel Johnson 4 2017
Ifeadi Odenigbo 7 2017
Jalyn Holmes 4 2018
Ade Aruna 6 2018
Armon Watts 6 2019
DJ Wonnum 4 2020
James Lynch 4 2020
Kenny Willekes 7 2020
I already ranted about this above, but it’s one area where I feel people give Andre Patterson far too much credit. Look at that list: Hunter, a possible role player in Weatherly, and nothing else.
LB
Anthony Barr 1 2014
Brandon Watts 7 2014
Eric Kendricks 2 2015
Edmond Robinson 7 2015
Kentrell Brothers 5 2016
Ben Gedeon 4 2017
Elijah Lee 7 2017
Eric Wilson UDFA 2017
Devante Downs 7 2018
Cameron Smith 5 2019
Troy Dye 4 2020
Same story: We can get good players in round 1-2, nothing after. I did add in Wilson as a UDFA development (and Harris, below) to provide a bit of “extra credit”. Maybe our coaches are more directly involved in selecting undrafted free agents than draftees?
DB
Antone Exum 6 2014
Kendall James 6 2014
Jabari Price 7 2014
Trae Waynes 1 2015
Anthony Harris UDFA 2015
Mackensie Alexander 2 2016
Jayron Kearse 7 2016
Jack Tocho 7 2017
Mike Hughes 1 2018
Marcus Epps 6 2019
Kris Boyd 7 2019
Jeff Gladney 1 2020
Cameron Dantzler 3 2020
Harrison Hand 5 2020
Josh Metellus 6 2020
Brian Cole 7 2020
Do I need to say it again? OK, Jayron Kearse became a good ST player. That’s OK for one particular 7th-rounder, but it’s not enough to show for all those picks. And Kearse had all the talent you could want, a perfect candidate for a player in need of a great coach to motivate and teach him.
Hey...is someone still reading this? Go home, the movie's over....
(Thanks for reading any of this!)
... and neither is this Chris guy.