Post by Purple Pain on Mar 24, 2021 17:34:06 GMT -6
A few pieces as we get closer to the draft.
This one found on r/minnesotavikings:
Deep Dive: What does the recent history of 13-15 picks tell us about the Vikings in the 2021 Draft? by u/MichaelJones84
https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/mbn1xl/deep_dive_what_does_the_recent_history_of_1315/
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More Vikings-related draft history:
Zone Coverage: Ranking the Vikings' Last 10 First Round Picks
And another piece from r/minnesotavikings:
Ranking the Vikings 1st round picks from the 21st Century
This one found on r/minnesotavikings:
Deep Dive: What does the recent history of 13-15 picks tell us about the Vikings in the 2021 Draft? by u/MichaelJones84
The '21 draft is looking like a pretty compelling class, and our boys have a rather interesting spot at No. 14 with QBs and pass catchers likely making up a large portion of the top 12 picks.
That got me thinking: What can the recent history of the 13-15 range tell us about the Vikings' pick?
I broke down every draft since 2000 to see how this particular market shifts based on the draft class, what can be gleaned from trades — both up and down — and what type of quality you can expect in this range slightly before the middle of the 1st round. There was a lot of stuff I thought was pretty noteworthy and will give Minnesota quite a few options if the draft plays out like some of its comparable predecessors. Four observations about this range:
1. Standing pat often leads to quality players
In the top five, you have to land a franchise-changing player. The next five, you have to add a high-end starter.
The low teens aren't thought of as highly, but there is still legitimate quality there if you scout well. From 2000-16, 30 of 51 players (59 percent) taken between Nos. 13 and 15 made at least one Pro Bowl; several others were at least reliable starters for a number of years.
In recent years, the Raiders took their franchise LT, Kolton Miller, at No. 15 in 2018. Atlanta took promising guard Chris Lindstrom at No. 14 a year later. Tampa took tackle Tristan Wirfs at No. 13 last season. Which leads us to our next point...
2. QB-heavy years give serious options to the teams between 13-15
There is no bigger asset in football than the franchise QB, and there is no cheaper way to obtain one than the draft. The Vikings, while obviously paying a premium for Cousins, have the benefit of not being in this market in 2021. I looked at previous QB-friendly drafts to see what was still around by the 13th pick, and the answer was always multiple quality options at several positions. A look back:
2004: 3 QBs go in the top 11.
At 13, The No. 2 OT, No. 1 DE, No. 1 DT, and No. 1 OG are still on the board.
2011: 4 QBs go in the top 12.
OT2, DE2, DT2, OG1, and WR1 are all available at 13.
2012: 3 QBs go in the top eight.
OT2, DE1, WR2, and OG1 are available at 13.
2017: 3 QBs go in the top 12.
OT1, DT1, LB1, OG1, and CB2 are available at 13.
2018: 4 QBs go in the top 10.
OT2, DT2, DE1, OG1, and CB2 are available at 13.
This season, at least three and probably four QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance) will go before 14. If one of them falls, or if someone falls in love with Mac Jones, there is a not-insignificant market of teams behind the Vikings possibly eager to move up. As it stands today, the Patriots (15), WFT (19), Bears (20), and Steelers (24) are planning to start an aging veteran QB on a one-year deal.
If all the QB action happens before 14, there's still no harm done to Minnesota, which isn't taking a QB and would likely have some real best-player-available options without moving. The Vikings have needs on both lines, yet it's very plausible there is also a top-10-caliber skill player still available due to the run on QBs. I think they'd have a really hard time passing on Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle if one fell, and I've seen both available at this juncture in a handful of mocks.
3. The trade market is way more agreeable in this range
When someone trades into our out of the top 10, and especially the top five, the cost of doing business is almost always a future 1st-rounder(s) and/or an established player at a marquee position. These trades immediately shape both franchises for years, for better or worse.
Movement from 13-15 is much more sensible in either direction. I'll call your attention to three that I thought are pertinent for the Vikings in 2021:
2007: Carolina traded 14 and 191 to the Jets for 25, 59, and 164
The Jets took Darrelle Revis, while the Panthers got three-time Pro Bowler Jon Beason at 25 and five-time Pro Bowler Ryan Khalil at 59. Everybody won.
The Vikings, who do not currently have a 2nd-round pick, are a prime candidate for this type of move. Let's say Virginia Tech corner Caleb Farely is still around at 14. Really good corners are expensive in free agency, so having a very good one on a rookie contract is immensely valuable. Rick Spielman likely would have a market to trade back into the 20s, pick up a 2nd, and address two needs at edge, OT, or OG in the first 60 picks, or take a best-player-available flier on someone who fell and shouldn't have. Looking in your direction, Mr. Jefferson.
2020: Tampa Bay traded 14 and 117 to San Francisco for 13 and 245
The trade guaranteed the Bucs could take OT Tristan Wirfs, who started every game, including the Super Bowl, and was one of the best rookies in the league. It's a trade they'd do again 100 times out of 100.
The Vikings could well be in the market for a tackle depending on how they feel about moving Ezra Cleveland from RG, where he played in 2020. Oregon's Penei Sewell will be gone by 14 without question and I'd bet Northwestern's Rashawn Slater will be off the board as well. If the Vikings believe the time and place is right to go after a first-round tackle, they have LOTS of Day 3 capital, so parting with one of those picks could guarantee one of, if not the choice between, Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC) and Christian Darrisaw (VT). After losing Riley Reiff to free agency, Minnesota has no choice but to address the position one way or another. If it's with a rookie, this is a good draft for tackles.
2002: Tennessee traded 14 to the Giants for 15 and 110
Tennessee drops one spot, picks up a 4th for its trouble, and still ends up with Albert Haynesworth.
If the Patriots, who are 15, want to guarantee they draft someone (probably Mac Jones to sit behind Cam for a year), they can easily toss a mid-rounder the Vikings way to make it happen. Minnesota wasn't taking Jones, still ends up with whomever it wanted at 14, and adds to the war chest. All those picks portend to packaging multiple Day 3 picks to get back into the 2nd.
4. There is ALWAYS All-Pro talent that eludes the top 15
No matter how much we think we know about the draft, even in the PFF, every-college-game-on-TV era, someone who absolutely should have been drafted in the top 15 trickles later into the 1st for a variety of reasons.
Because our old pal Rick finds trading back for additional draft capital borderline erotic, I'm about 40/60 in thinking the Vikings make the 14th pick vs. trade back into the first and earn compensation for doing so. In that instance, there is MASSIVE value if you nab a stud player outside of the top 15.
And it happens every single year. A sampling from 2007-20: Joe Staley (30th overall); Aqib Talib (20); Maurkice Pouncey (18); Cam Jordan, (24); Harrison Smith (29); Kyle Long (20); Zach Martin (16); Marcus Peters (18); Derwin James (17); Justin Jefferson (22nd), and that's just some of the more notable ones.
DK Metcalf went 64th!
Conclusion
Given the likely market, the Vikings' amount of draft picks, and the organization gunning to win now, there is ample chance for the Vikings to be a legitimate contender if they play the draft wisely. And to Spielman's credit, the Vikings have done pretty well in the draft overall during his tenure.
In 2021, drafting one Pro Bowl-caliber player, two more quality starters, and a few savvy depth picks would put the Vikings back in business immediately.
With currently 11 kicks at the can, that doesn't seem like too much to ask, no?
That got me thinking: What can the recent history of the 13-15 range tell us about the Vikings' pick?
I broke down every draft since 2000 to see how this particular market shifts based on the draft class, what can be gleaned from trades — both up and down — and what type of quality you can expect in this range slightly before the middle of the 1st round. There was a lot of stuff I thought was pretty noteworthy and will give Minnesota quite a few options if the draft plays out like some of its comparable predecessors. Four observations about this range:
1. Standing pat often leads to quality players
In the top five, you have to land a franchise-changing player. The next five, you have to add a high-end starter.
The low teens aren't thought of as highly, but there is still legitimate quality there if you scout well. From 2000-16, 30 of 51 players (59 percent) taken between Nos. 13 and 15 made at least one Pro Bowl; several others were at least reliable starters for a number of years.
In recent years, the Raiders took their franchise LT, Kolton Miller, at No. 15 in 2018. Atlanta took promising guard Chris Lindstrom at No. 14 a year later. Tampa took tackle Tristan Wirfs at No. 13 last season. Which leads us to our next point...
2. QB-heavy years give serious options to the teams between 13-15
There is no bigger asset in football than the franchise QB, and there is no cheaper way to obtain one than the draft. The Vikings, while obviously paying a premium for Cousins, have the benefit of not being in this market in 2021. I looked at previous QB-friendly drafts to see what was still around by the 13th pick, and the answer was always multiple quality options at several positions. A look back:
2004: 3 QBs go in the top 11.
At 13, The No. 2 OT, No. 1 DE, No. 1 DT, and No. 1 OG are still on the board.
2011: 4 QBs go in the top 12.
OT2, DE2, DT2, OG1, and WR1 are all available at 13.
2012: 3 QBs go in the top eight.
OT2, DE1, WR2, and OG1 are available at 13.
2017: 3 QBs go in the top 12.
OT1, DT1, LB1, OG1, and CB2 are available at 13.
2018: 4 QBs go in the top 10.
OT2, DT2, DE1, OG1, and CB2 are available at 13.
This season, at least three and probably four QBs (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance) will go before 14. If one of them falls, or if someone falls in love with Mac Jones, there is a not-insignificant market of teams behind the Vikings possibly eager to move up. As it stands today, the Patriots (15), WFT (19), Bears (20), and Steelers (24) are planning to start an aging veteran QB on a one-year deal.
If all the QB action happens before 14, there's still no harm done to Minnesota, which isn't taking a QB and would likely have some real best-player-available options without moving. The Vikings have needs on both lines, yet it's very plausible there is also a top-10-caliber skill player still available due to the run on QBs. I think they'd have a really hard time passing on Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle if one fell, and I've seen both available at this juncture in a handful of mocks.
3. The trade market is way more agreeable in this range
When someone trades into our out of the top 10, and especially the top five, the cost of doing business is almost always a future 1st-rounder(s) and/or an established player at a marquee position. These trades immediately shape both franchises for years, for better or worse.
Movement from 13-15 is much more sensible in either direction. I'll call your attention to three that I thought are pertinent for the Vikings in 2021:
2007: Carolina traded 14 and 191 to the Jets for 25, 59, and 164
The Jets took Darrelle Revis, while the Panthers got three-time Pro Bowler Jon Beason at 25 and five-time Pro Bowler Ryan Khalil at 59. Everybody won.
The Vikings, who do not currently have a 2nd-round pick, are a prime candidate for this type of move. Let's say Virginia Tech corner Caleb Farely is still around at 14. Really good corners are expensive in free agency, so having a very good one on a rookie contract is immensely valuable. Rick Spielman likely would have a market to trade back into the 20s, pick up a 2nd, and address two needs at edge, OT, or OG in the first 60 picks, or take a best-player-available flier on someone who fell and shouldn't have. Looking in your direction, Mr. Jefferson.
2020: Tampa Bay traded 14 and 117 to San Francisco for 13 and 245
The trade guaranteed the Bucs could take OT Tristan Wirfs, who started every game, including the Super Bowl, and was one of the best rookies in the league. It's a trade they'd do again 100 times out of 100.
The Vikings could well be in the market for a tackle depending on how they feel about moving Ezra Cleveland from RG, where he played in 2020. Oregon's Penei Sewell will be gone by 14 without question and I'd bet Northwestern's Rashawn Slater will be off the board as well. If the Vikings believe the time and place is right to go after a first-round tackle, they have LOTS of Day 3 capital, so parting with one of those picks could guarantee one of, if not the choice between, Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC) and Christian Darrisaw (VT). After losing Riley Reiff to free agency, Minnesota has no choice but to address the position one way or another. If it's with a rookie, this is a good draft for tackles.
2002: Tennessee traded 14 to the Giants for 15 and 110
Tennessee drops one spot, picks up a 4th for its trouble, and still ends up with Albert Haynesworth.
If the Patriots, who are 15, want to guarantee they draft someone (probably Mac Jones to sit behind Cam for a year), they can easily toss a mid-rounder the Vikings way to make it happen. Minnesota wasn't taking Jones, still ends up with whomever it wanted at 14, and adds to the war chest. All those picks portend to packaging multiple Day 3 picks to get back into the 2nd.
4. There is ALWAYS All-Pro talent that eludes the top 15
No matter how much we think we know about the draft, even in the PFF, every-college-game-on-TV era, someone who absolutely should have been drafted in the top 15 trickles later into the 1st for a variety of reasons.
Because our old pal Rick finds trading back for additional draft capital borderline erotic, I'm about 40/60 in thinking the Vikings make the 14th pick vs. trade back into the first and earn compensation for doing so. In that instance, there is MASSIVE value if you nab a stud player outside of the top 15.
And it happens every single year. A sampling from 2007-20: Joe Staley (30th overall); Aqib Talib (20); Maurkice Pouncey (18); Cam Jordan, (24); Harrison Smith (29); Kyle Long (20); Zach Martin (16); Marcus Peters (18); Derwin James (17); Justin Jefferson (22nd), and that's just some of the more notable ones.
DK Metcalf went 64th!
Conclusion
Given the likely market, the Vikings' amount of draft picks, and the organization gunning to win now, there is ample chance for the Vikings to be a legitimate contender if they play the draft wisely. And to Spielman's credit, the Vikings have done pretty well in the draft overall during his tenure.
In 2021, drafting one Pro Bowl-caliber player, two more quality starters, and a few savvy depth picks would put the Vikings back in business immediately.
With currently 11 kicks at the can, that doesn't seem like too much to ask, no?
--
More Vikings-related draft history:
Zone Coverage: Ranking the Vikings' Last 10 First Round Picks
And another piece from r/minnesotavikings:
Ranking the Vikings 1st round picks from the 21st Century
Some additional thoughts and stats:
The Vikings traded their 1st round picks in 2008, 2010, and 2017. Easily the most notable trade is when they traded their 2008 1st (#17) and two 3rd rounders for Jared Allen, who gave the Vikings six outstanding seasons. If I were to rank him in this list, I'd put him at #3 or #4. The other notable trade was when they panic-traded their 2017 1st rounder (which ended up being #14) for Sam Bradford after Teddy shattered his knee. The 2010 #1 (#30) was traded to Detroit for some picks.
Overall, of the 24 first-round picks the Vikings have had in the 21st century, 13 drafted players who were selected to at least one pro-bowl, and five of those players were all-pros.
The Vikings acquired five additional 1st round picks during this century. Three of those picks were netted from trading wide receivers: #7 in 2005 from trading Randy Moss to the Raiders, #29 in 2013 from trading Percy Harvin to the Seahawks, and #22 from trading Stefon Diggs to the Bills. Each of those picks was then used by the Vikings to draft a wide receiver.
The Vikings traded their 1st round picks in 2008, 2010, and 2017. Easily the most notable trade is when they traded their 2008 1st (#17) and two 3rd rounders for Jared Allen, who gave the Vikings six outstanding seasons. If I were to rank him in this list, I'd put him at #3 or #4. The other notable trade was when they panic-traded their 2017 1st rounder (which ended up being #14) for Sam Bradford after Teddy shattered his knee. The 2010 #1 (#30) was traded to Detroit for some picks.
Overall, of the 24 first-round picks the Vikings have had in the 21st century, 13 drafted players who were selected to at least one pro-bowl, and five of those players were all-pros.
The Vikings acquired five additional 1st round picks during this century. Three of those picks were netted from trading wide receivers: #7 in 2005 from trading Randy Moss to the Raiders, #29 in 2013 from trading Percy Harvin to the Seahawks, and #22 from trading Stefon Diggs to the Bills. Each of those picks was then used by the Vikings to draft a wide receiver.
