6th and 7th round Viking Draft Success Since 2011
Mar 9, 2021 12:32:17 GMT -6
Funkytown, Minniman, and 4 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Mar 9, 2021 12:32:17 GMT -6
There is no question that Rick loves him some 7th and to a lesser extent, 6th round picks. He wants at least 3 7th rounders each draft and claims it is part of a sound draft strategy that benefits the team. Does it though?
Going back to 2011, the Vikings have had 47 draft picks in the 6th and 7th round. That is about 2.5 picks in each of those rounds each year and makes up almost half of the 103 total draft picks Rick has made as GM. With those picks, here are the players who have become full time starters (at least for one season):
Brandon Fusco
Shamar Stephen
Ifeadi Odenigbo
Blair Walsh
Here are the picks that have started more than 16 games:
Brandon Fusco
Shamar Stephen
Blair Walsh
Here are the picks with a career AV over 10:
Brandon Fusco
Shamar Stephen
Ifeadi Odenigbo
Blair Walsh
Here are the picks that anyone would miss if they had never been drafted:
So as we can see, not a lot of impact players getting drafted in those rounds. So why does Rick employ that strategy? Maybe he sees other, SB winning GMs employing it and is just emulating their success? Nope.
Bellicheck during that time has drafted 30 times in the 6th and 7th round
Colbert has had 27 picks
Loomis 16 picks
Schneider 32 picks
Rick is the only one of the 8 longest tenured GMs still employed who does not own the team that hasn't won the SB. He is also the only one who employs this accumulation of 6th and 7th round draft picks to the extreme that he does. Coincidence?
Clearly accumulating 6th and 7th round picks doesn't seem to be the answer for successful drafting, but that doesn't mean trading down is a bad move. Trading down in the first for an extra 2nd or 3rd makes sense. There are high impact guys who can be found in those rounds.
We see that the long tenured GMs with SB wins all accumulate 2nd and 3rd round picks even if they don't always value their 1sts as much as Rick. Here we also see a disconnect with Rick and results as 8 of his 14 picks in rounds 2 and 3 have started 1 year or more, and 4 have become pro bowlers. That is only 3 fewer pro bowlers than he has drafted in round 1, and comparing quality of pro bowlers the Kendricks, Hunter, Rudy, Cook 2nd and 3rd rounder to the 1st round pro bowlers: Smith, Jefferson, Rhodes, Patterson, Bridgewater and Kahlil, one could argue the Rick has hit on the same number of high impact guys with his 14 1st round picks as he has with his 14 2nd and 3rd round picks.
In the end, despite arguments to the contrary come draft day, and analysts loving all over Rick for his accumulation of picks in the 6th and 7th round, it doesn't actually benefit the team that he does it and it isn't something any other long tenured GM tries to do as much as he does.
Going back to 2011, the Vikings have had 47 draft picks in the 6th and 7th round. That is about 2.5 picks in each of those rounds each year and makes up almost half of the 103 total draft picks Rick has made as GM. With those picks, here are the players who have become full time starters (at least for one season):
Brandon Fusco
Shamar Stephen
Ifeadi Odenigbo
Blair Walsh
Here are the picks that have started more than 16 games:
Brandon Fusco
Shamar Stephen
Blair Walsh
Here are the picks with a career AV over 10:
Brandon Fusco
Shamar Stephen
Ifeadi Odenigbo
Blair Walsh
Here are the picks that anyone would miss if they had never been drafted:
So as we can see, not a lot of impact players getting drafted in those rounds. So why does Rick employ that strategy? Maybe he sees other, SB winning GMs employing it and is just emulating their success? Nope.
Bellicheck during that time has drafted 30 times in the 6th and 7th round
Colbert has had 27 picks
Loomis 16 picks
Schneider 32 picks
Rick is the only one of the 8 longest tenured GMs still employed who does not own the team that hasn't won the SB. He is also the only one who employs this accumulation of 6th and 7th round draft picks to the extreme that he does. Coincidence?
Clearly accumulating 6th and 7th round picks doesn't seem to be the answer for successful drafting, but that doesn't mean trading down is a bad move. Trading down in the first for an extra 2nd or 3rd makes sense. There are high impact guys who can be found in those rounds.
GM | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bellicheck | 8 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 7 |
Colbert | 9 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
Schneider | 6 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 16 |
Rick | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 14 |
We see that the long tenured GMs with SB wins all accumulate 2nd and 3rd round picks even if they don't always value their 1sts as much as Rick. Here we also see a disconnect with Rick and results as 8 of his 14 picks in rounds 2 and 3 have started 1 year or more, and 4 have become pro bowlers. That is only 3 fewer pro bowlers than he has drafted in round 1, and comparing quality of pro bowlers the Kendricks, Hunter, Rudy, Cook 2nd and 3rd rounder to the 1st round pro bowlers: Smith, Jefferson, Rhodes, Patterson, Bridgewater and Kahlil, one could argue the Rick has hit on the same number of high impact guys with his 14 1st round picks as he has with his 14 2nd and 3rd round picks.
In the end, despite arguments to the contrary come draft day, and analysts loving all over Rick for his accumulation of picks in the 6th and 7th round, it doesn't actually benefit the team that he does it and it isn't something any other long tenured GM tries to do as much as he does.