Bradbury is Not a First Round Blunder

The pundit style draft reports rated Treadwell high. He was often one of the top two or three receivers listed. They said he was slow but "athletic" and could get contested balls thrown his way. The highlight game tape showed some good catches as well. That's all good.

Deep analytics of drops, catches not on target, and other situations showed that Treadwell was not only slow, but he also had questionable ball skills. Those are two red flags for a receiver.

The draft is a crap shoot, but there are odds to be considered when playing craps just as doing due diligence in scouting and analytics can increase a team's chances in the draft. It is no wonder that teams like the Packers and Patriots can draft offensive linemen better than many other teams. They don't always hit, but their hit rates are higher partially because their scouting staffs do their homework and use analytics.

It isn't just Treadwell, there are other examples. In another topic, we have been discussing Sharrif Floyd. He was rated as one of the top defensive tackles by the pundits, but I saw too many red flags in his game. Floyd was fast and had a great combine, but he had short arms, often did not use good leverage, was turned from the play too often, and didn't use that speed to get to the quarterback. Game tape showed that he might not have great strength, and he didn't lift at the combine. Floyd look like a quality pick in the second or third round, but I did not like him in the first round.

Kawann Short looked better on tape, had better stats, and had longer arms. Short didn't participate in the combine, which hurt his draft status, but he did have a good pro day. Short didn't have the speed that Floyd had, but he had better quickness, had better range, showed better strength, and he got to the quarterback. Floyd was drafted in the first round by the Vikings. Short was drafted in the second round by Carolina.

Mackensie Alexander was scouted as a good cover corner in man that could go in round 2 through 4. I saw him as a short cornerback that lacked ball skills. No interceptions in college was a red flag. The Vikings drafted him in the second round. In the Pros, he lacked ball skills, and he had trouble covering any routes with a hard cut. Even running backs could juke him on an out pattern. The Vikings drafted him at the high range of his draft report and ignored his lack of ball skills.

Of course, the Vikings did also hit on players that others missed early. Diggs, Hunter, and Cook are good examples. That doesn't mean they get a pass on Treadwell or other high draft choices that had more red flags than a Chinese Communist Party convention.