How Do We Get Better?

Traded with the Jets
Sent 3-79 (WR ArDarius Stewart) and 5-160 (traded) for
3-70 (G/C Pat Elflein)

Traded with the Jets again
Sent 5-167 (traded) and 7-225 (traded)
for
5-157 (TE Tyler Conklin)

Traded with the Jets again!
Sent 6-180 (DT Folorunso Fatukasi) and 6-204 (HB Trenton Cannon)
for
5-167 (K Daniel Carlson) and 7-225 (LB Devante Downs)

Traded with the Seahawks
Sent 4-120 (WR Gary Jennings Jr.) and 6-204 (HB Travis Homer)
for
4-114 (G Dru Samia)

2021
Sent a 2020 5th to the Bears (OLB Trevis Gipson) for a 2021 4th

2021
Sent a 2020 6th and 7th to the Ravens (WR James Proche and SS Geno Stone) for a 2021 5th

Anthony Harris leaving Minnesota for Philadelphia combined with a few other moves around the league in recent days took the Vikings from 10th in the Improvement Index down to 23rd.

They are currently down 2.11% in WAR with the biggest gain being the Patriots (6.88%) and biggest decline the Lions (6.29%).

Here’s a look at how the free agents gained and lost break down by 2020 WAR (via PFF’s free agent tracker):

Added

Patrick Peterson — 0.01

Dalvin Tomlinson — 0.11

Subtracted

Anthony Harris — 0.46

Kyle Rudolph — 0.11

Riley Reiff — 0.06

What should we make of this data?

Our first takeaway should be that even with a decline in Harris’s play last year, he was still a valuable part of the operation. He still played over 1,000 snaps and allowed just 15 passes completed into his coverage on 28 throws in his direction. The league leader at safety in receptions allowed gave up 57 catches on 70 targets.

Appearing on the Purple Insider podcast, inventor of the Improvement Index Kevin Cole noted that if the Vikings go from an average safety to a replacement-level player alongside Harrison Smith it would be difficult for the secondary to get better.

“I could see the rationale that safety is a more fungible or replaceable position but when you have to scrape the bottom of the barrel and that’s when things can get ugly,” Cole said. “Coverage is an area where people talk about it as a ‘weak link’ system and if there is a flaw that’s exposed, offenses can find that even if the other parts are working. I think it’s really, really important that they get a piece that can work.”

The Vikings should be able to close the WAR gap at a reasonable price since Harris signed for just one year and $5 million and Keanu Neal signed for $4 million on a one-year contract.

From a WAR perspective, the best remaining free agents are Xavier Woods (0.32), Malik Hooker (0.31 in 2019), Tashaun Gipson (0.66) and Duron Harmon (0.45).

In examining PFF’s WAR findings, another factor to consider is Patrick Peterson’s down 2020 season and whether his play will return to form.

GM Rick Spielman was sure to add that he believes Peterson “still has a lot in the tank” during his introductory press conference. In 2018, Peterson was one of the league’s most valuable corners at 0.59 WAR. That’s higher than 2020 William Jackson, who received a three-year deal worth $13.5 million per year with Washington. But last year Peterson was hovering around zero WAR.

“The issue is how far back you want to look at [Peterson’s] performance because he’s had a pretty severe drop off the last couple of years,” Cole said. “Last year, believe it or not, we had his play below what we would call ‘replacement level’ at times so that’s not great but then again we would have had the same thing for Xavier Rhodes [in 2019].”

Rhodes’s jump from 2019 to 2020 speaks to the volatility of cornerback production from year to year. When the Vikings released Rhodes after 2019, they were letting go of a player with minus-0.27 WAR. This year he was worth 0.75, making him the most valuable free agent corner of 2020.

This is where the risk factor for the Vikings comes in. His play is very difficult to project but it could be the difference between significant gains and continued struggles in coverage. The make-or-break move rests on variance.

PFF is higher on the decision to sign Dalvin Tomlinson to a two-year deal. Cole said their findings back up Mike Zimmer’s philosophy about the value of beastly interior defensive linemen who shut down opponents’ run games.

“We like Tomlinson a lot,” Cole said. “We’ve actually upped a bit how much credit we give to run defense, especially in that run-stuffing nose tackle type role because of how it allows a defense to work outside of it and to build around someone who can control that. If you have a player who can handle a lot of responsibility — and I think Tomlinson can do that — it can free up other people to have more of an effect on the passing game.”

Tomlinson’s actual WAR number may look relatively small (0.11) but he is replacing a player who finished dead last in PFF grade among three-technique tackles. The gains from a well below replacement-level player to top 20 player are expected to be significant.

Another aspect of the chart worth noting is that getting players back from injuries does not factor into the equation.

Keeping Anthony Barr on a restructured contract should create a bump in WAR over Eric Wilson, who was overall just a 0.02 WAR player last year. Danielle Hunter coming back, even 80% of his previous production, offers a huge increase over previous starters. Ifeadi Odenigbo, the Vikings’ best D-end not named Ngakoue last year, still had a negative WAR.

Even with the Barr and Hunter returning there is still work to be done.

The Vikings had only 23 sacks last season. If Hunter has a good year, that still puts them around or behind league average (35.5).

But is it the right move to chase one of the remaining pass rushers on the market to fill the gap?

Here’s the top remaining defensive ends and their WAR from last year and highest WAR marks of the last three years:

All of them were lower in 2020 than their three-year high except Aldon Smith, who didn’t play in 2018 or 2019.

To put those numbers in context, JJ Watt led free agents at 0.50 and Carl Lawson finished with 0.20 WAR.

Given the choice between the solid safeties and bigger name defensive ends, Cole said the Vikings should lean toward improving the coverage unit.

“I think teams maybe overestimate how much they can scheme on the back end for coverage and underestimate how much you can scheme pressure sometimes,” he said. “[Pass rush] can take a step forward but it might depend on how well the offenses that they’re playing this year protect.”

There have been no positive WAR changes on the offensive side so far this offseason, only losses at left tackle and tight end.

However, Riley Reiff’s impact might not be as much as we expect. While he may have been solid overall, his WAR data suggests he is more replaceable than his sacks allowed number (one) suggests.

Remaining free agents like Rick Wagner (0.15), Alejandro Villanueva (0.11) and Bobby Massie (0.06) were either as valuable last year or better.

The guard market is more bleak. There isn’t a single guard on the market with a positive WAR and reported Vikings target Forrest Lamp registered a minus-0.19, making him the least valuable guard left on the market.

If the Vikings were willing to use WR3 more often, there are players available who would jolt their WAR upward. T.Y. Hilton (0.33), Danny Amendola (0.23), Willie Snead (0.15) and Chris Conley (0.09) were all vastly more valuable by the WAR metric than any remaining guards.

No matter where the Vikings choose to invest their remaining cap space, they are likely to still have pressing needs to fill with the 14th overall pick (or wherever they trade back) come draft day.

Every offseason, the offensive line will be the focus of the Minnesota Vikings’ roster improvement discussions. Rightfully so, as that unit has been a problem since Mike Zimmer’s arrival in 2014. But the Vikings had plenty of other problems this offseason. They’ve addressed many of them, including the secondary and defensive front, and even traded for a potentially viable guard. Zimmer has already expressed that he’s excited about the new defense. I’m here to tell you he shouldn’t be done yet.

The Vikings have an underrated problem on the edge of the defense. Danielle Hunter is a superstar, but his status is in flux. Even with a happy and healthy Hunter, Minnesota has a big problem on the opposite side. Stephen Weatherly re-joined the Vikings on a paltry $2.5 million contract, mostly unguaranteed. D.J. Wonnum played 471 snaps last year as the reserves dwindled. Right now, the other defensive end position figures to be a competition between those two.

That’s simply not good enough.

Weatherly is a better-known quantity. After a mostly rotational role during his rookie season in Minnesota, he played just 358 snaps for the Carolina Panthers in a disappointing year. He produced 12 pressures over 206 pass-rush snaps, as opposed to Wonnum’s 22 pressures on 273 pass-rush snaps. It was a down year for Weatherly, however, who produced a little better in his last couple of years in Minnesota.

In five years, Weatherly has never earned himself a starting job. He’s had his opportunities. In 2018, with Everson Griffen unavailable, Weatherly started for seven games. In 2020, the Vikings declined to make that a permanent change. The Panthers signed him to starting money, but he rotated with Marquis Haynes before being placed on IR midway through the season.

The more interesting name to evaluate is D.J. Wonnum. If Wonnum can step up and play at a starting-quality level, it’d naturally remove the need. If not, the Vikings are in a bad, bad way at the position. Unfortunately, Wonnum is a long way away from that sort of contribution.



The Vikings drafted Wonnum because of his length and his explosion. He’s not a bulky pass rusher but rather a speeding bullet with a reach advantage. When that’s your style, the swim move is a great option. Here’s six-time Pro Bowler Calais Campbell breaking down why:

Unless there’s a sixth-year jump somewhere in Stephen Weatherly or D.J. Wonnum can improve mightily in multiple ways, the Vikings only have one starting-quality edge rusher on the team. And that player isn’t guaranteed to see the field in purple.

There are plenty of ways the Vikings could go to handle this. The free-agent market is still fairly saturated, with Jadeveon Clowney, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston, and even Everson Griffen among the available names. The first two days of the draft are rife with superior edge talent. Luckily for the Vikings, there are options. It is perfectly justifiable to spend even more on fixing that defense than they already have. In fact, it would be inexcusable not to.