Post by Purple Pain on Feb 20, 2021 11:53:03 GMT -6
Kirk Cousins Thread #472
Seriously guys, we don't need 500 Kirk Cousins threads - we don't! - but in this case, this one probably deserved its own thread to focus just on 2020. Good insight here.
Purple Insider: Everything we learned about Kirk Cousins from the PFF QB annual
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/everything-we-learned-about-kirk
Seriously guys, we don't need 500 Kirk Cousins threads - we don't! - but in this case, this one probably deserved its own thread to focus just on 2020. Good insight here.
Purple Insider: Everything we learned about Kirk Cousins from the PFF QB annual
Cousins played relatively safe — which had its pluses and minuses
A few of the most telling metrics about a quarterback’s style are big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, positively-graded throws and negatively-graded throws.
These give us a window into whether a QB was taking a lot of risks and whether those risks are paying off or if he’s avoiding risks and what type of impact that is having on performance.
Despite tying his high mark for interceptions in a single season, Cousins did not actually have an above average rate of turnover-worthy or negatively-graded throws. He ranked 12th in turnover-worthy plays and ninth in negatively-graded passes.
But the Vikings’ QB also did not have a particularly high rate of positively-graded throws (14th) or big-time throws (20th) either.
It’s interesting that his big-time throws aren’t higher despite Cousins’s average depth of target being over 12 yards when throwing to Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson.
That might speak to scheme. Cousins’s accuracy on passes between 10-19 yards was around average but his numbers were astronomical (128.6 rating). That reads like a combination of Gary Kubiak’s system opening up intermediate throws to receivers who are capable of creating separation downfield combined with Cousins executing those throws effectively with a well above accuracy rate (73% vs. 65% league avg). But at the same time, he wasn’t adding more than expected in terms of tight-window throws.
Comparison:
— The best of the best in playing style was Aaron Rodgers, who ranked No. 1 in big-time throws and fourth best in turnover-worthy plays.
— The most like Cousins was surprisingly Kyler Murray. The Cardinals’ QB was 17th in big-time throws, ninth in turnover-worthy plays and mid-pack in positively and negatively-graded throws.
Blitzes and third downs were problematic (and probably connected)
In years past, it hasn’t been a particularly effective strategy for defenses to blitz Kirk Cousins. In 2019, he posted a career high 126.7 rating versus extra rushers and in 2017 and 2018 he managed ratings over 100 versus the blitz. Teams appeared to have figured that out and his blitz percentage dropped to 22% in 2019.
But in 2020 the opponent blitz rate shot up to 33% and while his rating was still solid at 106.9, that number is deceiving. When blitzed last season, Cousins’s yards per attempt dropped from 9.7 in 2019 to 7.3 in 2020 and Expected Points Added (performance vs. situation) dropped to the lowest point of his career.
Cousins was forced to throw the ball away at a rate nearly double from league average (7.3% vs. 4.0% avg) and was sacked on 9.4% of blitzes, by far the highest mark of his career. His on-target throws against blitzes fell from an outstanding 86.1% in 2019 to below average 70.3%
There’s a few different potential explanations. One is obviously the offensive line. The Vikings simply were unable to fend off blitzes that included stunts and twists. Opponents focusing coverage on Jefferson/Thielen in key spots might play into that and Kubiak’s scheme not providing as many underneath answers in comparison to Stefanski the year before is also a possibility.
Whatever the cause, Cousins’s history against the blitz would suggest that this was more about circumstance than something changing with the veteran QB. It also shows that if you have a weakness, NFL teams will find it.
Opponents successfully blitzing Cousins likely played a part in his 28th ranked grade on third downs. He was sacked 3.4% more than an average QB on third downs and his Expected Points Added sunk from an outstanding 0.31 in 2019 to -0.03 (which is still slightly above average). His yards per play, big-time throw percentage, conversion percentage and throws past the sticks all took a hit.
From year to year, however, Cousins’s third down numbers have always varied. His yards per attempt peaked in 2016 at 8.5 but was at its lowest in 2018 at 6.6 and his conversion percentage has fluctuated between 34% and 46%.
Like many things with Cousins, the team’s performance and coaching/play-calling/system appear to dictate third down production. You could conclude here that the more the Vikings give their QB, the more they will get in key spots like against the blitz and third downs.
Comparison:
— Patrick Mahomes was as good as it gets against the blitz with a 130.3 rating and on third downs he had double the NFL average of big-time throws while being sacked 3% less than the league.
— Jared Goff was similar to Cousins with an above average rate of being blitzed (33%) and struggles to make a difference (-0.01 EPA) against blitzes. He was better at converting third downs than Cousins but only gained 6.7 yards per attempt.
Cousins dominated the red zone but look for regression
The Vikings were a terrific red zone team in 2020, ranking sixth in touchdown percentage (42 TDs in 59 trips) and that was thanks in part to Cousins’s very strong play near the goal. He produced touchdowns on 36.5% of passes, which is nearly 14% higher than league average and he was better than league average in big time throws and turnover-worthy plays by a significant margin.
Taking nothing away from his ability to get the ball in the end zone, Cousins has never done anything close to his red zone showing in 2020. He posted a 0.52 Expected Points Added inside the 20. His next best is 0.24. It’s hard to put EPA numbers into context but the bottom line is that he performed vastly over expectation and that will be extremely hard to repeat.
Comparison:
— Cousins was better than Tom Brady in EPA (0.31) and touchdown percentage (27.8%). The only QB better was Rodgers with 0.55 EPA and 35.5% TD percentage.
Accuracy
Cousins’s accuracy was exactly where you’d expect it to be. He was 9th overall in accuracy percentage, 7th in on-target throws and 8th in fewest uncatchable balls.
He was an impressive 8.0% better than the league average when his receiver had a step on the defender but slightly below average accuracy when throwing into tight coverage.
Noticeable but not surprising: Cousins was at his most accurate throwing to his first read, hitting nearly 60% of his throws on target, almost 4% above average.
Comparison:
— Baker Mayfield was the most different from Cousins in the distribution of accurate passes. He hit 12.6% above average on tight throws but was average-to-below average on open passes.
— Derek Carr was most similar with 16th best accuracy, 10th best in uncatchable balls and below average tight window throws with above average accuracy to open receivers.
Time to throw
You eyes do not deceive you: The longer Cousins held the ball, the more bad things happened. He threw seven of his 13 interceptions while hanging onto the football for more than 3.1 seconds, he was pressured on 54% of dropbacks, he posted his lowest QB rating and EPA and lowest on-target percentage. He did, however, average 9.0 yards per attempt when he got throws off that took more than three seconds.
Noticeable but not surprising: Cousins was at his most accurate throwing to his first read, hitting nearly 60% of his throws on target, almost 4% above average.
Interestingly when he did get the ball out under 2.0 seconds (which speaks to Monday’s article about increasing quick game) Cousins had his highest EPA, second highest yards per play, lowest pressure percentage and lowest turnover-worthy plays.
Cousins’s best QB rating came when holding the ball between 2.1-2.5 seconds (124.1) but higher EPA on throws between 2.6-3.0 seconds, which probably represent the lion’s share of play-action throws.
Comparison:
Baker Mayfield came up very similar to Cousins with highly successful quick game (105.8 rating) and great when throwing on time play-actions between 2.6-3.0 (107.9 rating) but as soon as he held the ball past 3 seconds, Mayfield’s rating dropped into the 80s and his EPA was at its lowest.
The bottom line
The incredible in-depth data that PFF provides in its annual does more to confirm the eye test on Kirk Cousins than it does break new ground. He isn’t putting up high rates of wowing throws but is executing the throws that are available at a very impressive clip. And when situations change from year to year, so does his play, even if the fundamental parts of his game (a la big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays) remain largely the same.
A few of the most telling metrics about a quarterback’s style are big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays, positively-graded throws and negatively-graded throws.
These give us a window into whether a QB was taking a lot of risks and whether those risks are paying off or if he’s avoiding risks and what type of impact that is having on performance.
Despite tying his high mark for interceptions in a single season, Cousins did not actually have an above average rate of turnover-worthy or negatively-graded throws. He ranked 12th in turnover-worthy plays and ninth in negatively-graded passes.
But the Vikings’ QB also did not have a particularly high rate of positively-graded throws (14th) or big-time throws (20th) either.
It’s interesting that his big-time throws aren’t higher despite Cousins’s average depth of target being over 12 yards when throwing to Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson.
That might speak to scheme. Cousins’s accuracy on passes between 10-19 yards was around average but his numbers were astronomical (128.6 rating). That reads like a combination of Gary Kubiak’s system opening up intermediate throws to receivers who are capable of creating separation downfield combined with Cousins executing those throws effectively with a well above accuracy rate (73% vs. 65% league avg). But at the same time, he wasn’t adding more than expected in terms of tight-window throws.
Comparison:
— The best of the best in playing style was Aaron Rodgers, who ranked No. 1 in big-time throws and fourth best in turnover-worthy plays.
— The most like Cousins was surprisingly Kyler Murray. The Cardinals’ QB was 17th in big-time throws, ninth in turnover-worthy plays and mid-pack in positively and negatively-graded throws.
Blitzes and third downs were problematic (and probably connected)
In years past, it hasn’t been a particularly effective strategy for defenses to blitz Kirk Cousins. In 2019, he posted a career high 126.7 rating versus extra rushers and in 2017 and 2018 he managed ratings over 100 versus the blitz. Teams appeared to have figured that out and his blitz percentage dropped to 22% in 2019.
But in 2020 the opponent blitz rate shot up to 33% and while his rating was still solid at 106.9, that number is deceiving. When blitzed last season, Cousins’s yards per attempt dropped from 9.7 in 2019 to 7.3 in 2020 and Expected Points Added (performance vs. situation) dropped to the lowest point of his career.
Cousins was forced to throw the ball away at a rate nearly double from league average (7.3% vs. 4.0% avg) and was sacked on 9.4% of blitzes, by far the highest mark of his career. His on-target throws against blitzes fell from an outstanding 86.1% in 2019 to below average 70.3%
There’s a few different potential explanations. One is obviously the offensive line. The Vikings simply were unable to fend off blitzes that included stunts and twists. Opponents focusing coverage on Jefferson/Thielen in key spots might play into that and Kubiak’s scheme not providing as many underneath answers in comparison to Stefanski the year before is also a possibility.
Whatever the cause, Cousins’s history against the blitz would suggest that this was more about circumstance than something changing with the veteran QB. It also shows that if you have a weakness, NFL teams will find it.
Opponents successfully blitzing Cousins likely played a part in his 28th ranked grade on third downs. He was sacked 3.4% more than an average QB on third downs and his Expected Points Added sunk from an outstanding 0.31 in 2019 to -0.03 (which is still slightly above average). His yards per play, big-time throw percentage, conversion percentage and throws past the sticks all took a hit.
From year to year, however, Cousins’s third down numbers have always varied. His yards per attempt peaked in 2016 at 8.5 but was at its lowest in 2018 at 6.6 and his conversion percentage has fluctuated between 34% and 46%.
Like many things with Cousins, the team’s performance and coaching/play-calling/system appear to dictate third down production. You could conclude here that the more the Vikings give their QB, the more they will get in key spots like against the blitz and third downs.
Comparison:
— Patrick Mahomes was as good as it gets against the blitz with a 130.3 rating and on third downs he had double the NFL average of big-time throws while being sacked 3% less than the league.
— Jared Goff was similar to Cousins with an above average rate of being blitzed (33%) and struggles to make a difference (-0.01 EPA) against blitzes. He was better at converting third downs than Cousins but only gained 6.7 yards per attempt.
Cousins dominated the red zone but look for regression
The Vikings were a terrific red zone team in 2020, ranking sixth in touchdown percentage (42 TDs in 59 trips) and that was thanks in part to Cousins’s very strong play near the goal. He produced touchdowns on 36.5% of passes, which is nearly 14% higher than league average and he was better than league average in big time throws and turnover-worthy plays by a significant margin.
Taking nothing away from his ability to get the ball in the end zone, Cousins has never done anything close to his red zone showing in 2020. He posted a 0.52 Expected Points Added inside the 20. His next best is 0.24. It’s hard to put EPA numbers into context but the bottom line is that he performed vastly over expectation and that will be extremely hard to repeat.
Comparison:
— Cousins was better than Tom Brady in EPA (0.31) and touchdown percentage (27.8%). The only QB better was Rodgers with 0.55 EPA and 35.5% TD percentage.
Accuracy
Cousins’s accuracy was exactly where you’d expect it to be. He was 9th overall in accuracy percentage, 7th in on-target throws and 8th in fewest uncatchable balls.
He was an impressive 8.0% better than the league average when his receiver had a step on the defender but slightly below average accuracy when throwing into tight coverage.
Noticeable but not surprising: Cousins was at his most accurate throwing to his first read, hitting nearly 60% of his throws on target, almost 4% above average.
Comparison:
— Baker Mayfield was the most different from Cousins in the distribution of accurate passes. He hit 12.6% above average on tight throws but was average-to-below average on open passes.
— Derek Carr was most similar with 16th best accuracy, 10th best in uncatchable balls and below average tight window throws with above average accuracy to open receivers.
Time to throw
You eyes do not deceive you: The longer Cousins held the ball, the more bad things happened. He threw seven of his 13 interceptions while hanging onto the football for more than 3.1 seconds, he was pressured on 54% of dropbacks, he posted his lowest QB rating and EPA and lowest on-target percentage. He did, however, average 9.0 yards per attempt when he got throws off that took more than three seconds.
Noticeable but not surprising: Cousins was at his most accurate throwing to his first read, hitting nearly 60% of his throws on target, almost 4% above average.
Interestingly when he did get the ball out under 2.0 seconds (which speaks to Monday’s article about increasing quick game) Cousins had his highest EPA, second highest yards per play, lowest pressure percentage and lowest turnover-worthy plays.
Cousins’s best QB rating came when holding the ball between 2.1-2.5 seconds (124.1) but higher EPA on throws between 2.6-3.0 seconds, which probably represent the lion’s share of play-action throws.
Comparison:
Baker Mayfield came up very similar to Cousins with highly successful quick game (105.8 rating) and great when throwing on time play-actions between 2.6-3.0 (107.9 rating) but as soon as he held the ball past 3 seconds, Mayfield’s rating dropped into the 80s and his EPA was at its lowest.
The bottom line
The incredible in-depth data that PFF provides in its annual does more to confirm the eye test on Kirk Cousins than it does break new ground. He isn’t putting up high rates of wowing throws but is executing the throws that are available at a very impressive clip. And when situations change from year to year, so does his play, even if the fundamental parts of his game (a la big-time throws, turnover-worthy plays) remain largely the same.
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/everything-we-learned-about-kirk
... and neither is this Chris guy.