Z-Fense 2.0 - How To Fix The Defense in 2021 and Beyond

When the Minnesota Vikings’ disappointing season finally ended, Mike Zimmer made clear his disappointment in his team’s defensive line. If teams can’t rush the passer well, they often can’t play defense well, he noted. And the Vikings, especially after trading Yannick Ngakoue, couldn’t rush the passer or stop the run.

That led to the worst Vikings defense since Zimmer arrived in Minnesota. And it leaves the defensive line as arguably the team’s No. 1 priority as free agency looms in March.

So before free agency kicks off three weeks from now, we wanted to take a look at how we would fix the defensive line if, indeed, that is the top objective. Since the Vikings are going to have such little cap space, they’ll probably only be able to meaningfully address one position during free agency, so for this story, it’s the D-line. Later this week, we’ll reimagine the exercise while focusing on the offensive line.

Current roster

Even though the Vikings ended the season with one of the worst front four in the league (and arguably the worst interior defensive line), things aren’t terrible if they return two players they expect to.

Danielle Hunter missed the entire season due to neck surgery, and while his status became a bit more vague after an NFL Network tweet insinuated that Hunter wants to be the league’s highest-paid defensive player or be traded, the Vikings seem confident that they can smooth over that situation and return Hunter on his current contract.

Next to Hunter on the defensive line, they’re planning for the return of Michael Pierce, the nose tackle who was their prized addition to the front four in free agency a year ago — before he opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic.

Simply getting those two players back takes the Vikings defensive line from among the worst in the league to an average group even without knowing who occupies the two other spots. Next to Pierce, there’s no clear player to take the three-technique job that has been a carousel since Sheldon Richardson left. With a pass rusher there, Zimmer’s defense is at its best. But internal candidates like Armon Watts, Jaleel Johnson, Jalyn Holmes, Shamar Stephen, Hercules Mata’afa and James Lynch have left plenty to be desired.

Opposite Hunter, Ifeadi Odenigbo (who is a restricted free agent) and D.J. Wonnum are the prime internal candidates to get a shot at defensive end. While Wonnum had some flashes as a rookie last year, Odenigbo was the team’s best defensive lineman, so I’ll bring him back on a one-year tender that pays him roughly $3 million.

Free agency

This exercise is admittedly a bit difficult to conduct three weeks out from free agency, especially when we don’t yet know the official salary cap or the moves the Vikings will conduct to create space. But since this is a look at how I would create space, I’d restructure the contracts of Riley Reiff, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith to add salary room for 2021, while cutting Kyle Rudolph and Stephen.

I’m going to give out relatively cheap contracts to a veteran safety, a veteran guard and a wide receiver. After all of the cap-clearing moves, plus ones to add depth to important positions, I’ll say that the team has around $7 or $8 million left to make one significant move in free agency.

There are two schools of thought on how to use that on the defensive line. You could use it at defensive end with uncertainty around how long Hunter will want to stay in Minnesota and how long Odenigbo will remain with the team. Plus, that’s the most important position on the defensive line. But on the other hand, three-technique is the Vikings’ biggest need on the line in this scenario, and it’s also a position without much high-end talent in the draft. Alabama’s Christian Barmore is widely seen as the only defensive tackle that will be drafted in the first round, and he could even be a bit of a stretch for the team to pick at No. 14. Meanwhile, Dane Brugler had five edge rushers being selected in the first round of his latest mock draft.

Because of that, our focus in free agency is at defensive tackle, not defensive end. In the scenario we’ve created, we can’t really offer more than a one-year contract worth $8 million, so that probably rules out market-setters Sheldon Rankins and Dalvin Tomlinson. Larry Ogunjobi would be a good option, but he’s just 26 and will probably warrant a multiyear deal.

The Vikings’ most reasonable best-case scenario on the line might be Ndamukong Suh, who just turned 34 and might entertain a one-year contract, especially one that would bring him to a team with a hard-nosed defensive coach. Suh was still quite productive with the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers last season and would both play with the toughness that Zimmer likes and still provide enough of a pass rush to be a worthwhile addition. In this scenario, I’d sign him to a deal that pays him $7 million in 2021 after making $8 million last season. He would bring veteran leadership, a Super Bowl ring and knowledge of the NFC North to the Vikings. You can bet Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t love seeing him back in the division.

The draft

Now we enter April with our starting defensive line set with Hunter, Pierce, Suh, and Odenigbo. The need for a defensive tackle isn’t as significant, though since Suh is only on a one-year deal, we’ll still look to address that position in the first two days.

With the No. 14 pick, we’re suddenly in a pretty good spot, free to take either a defensive tackle or edge rusher. And while there aren’t many defensive tackles projected to be first-round picks, all five edge rushers in Brugler’s latest mock went after pick No. 13. Given that, our best option would be to try to trade down in the first round with the goal being to re-acquire a second-round pick. But since that’s difficult to project, we’ll make the pick at No. 14 with the assumption, based on several mock drafts, that no defensive linemen have been taken yet.

Gregory Rousseau is an enticing option and a player Brugler has twice mocked to the Vikings. But he’s far from a sure thing, and as the de facto Vikings general manager, I want someone who can immediately back up Odenigbo — if not push him for a starting job.

So, instead, I take Kwity Paye from Michigan, a freak athlete who is expected to run the fastest three-cone time during the pro days and someone who can hopefully push for playing time early. Plus, a defensive end can allow Zimmer to use four true pass rushers in third-and-long situations, occasionally putting Hunter, Odenigbo, Paye and Wonnum on the field at the same time.

There are other needs for later in the draft, primarily safety and offensive line, but with a third- or fourth-round pick, we’d also take a defensive tackle, perhaps someone like Jay Tufele of USC or Jared Goldwire from Louisville.

Summary

By the time May rolled around, I would have transformed the Vikings defensive line from one of the worst in the league to probably a top-10 unit. You’d have three very good starters in Hunter, Pierce and Suh — and then an open competition between Odenigbo and your first-round pick.

This formula doesn’t address the several other areas of need for the Vikings. But if the defensive line is the top priority, this quickly fixes that unit.

In a sense the Vikings are trying to duplicate what they did five years ago, only that offseason full-court press was on offense.

The 2016 Vikings finished 8-8 and finished 23rd in scoring so they attacked that side of the ball in free agency and the draft, signing tackles Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, running back Latavius Murray and wide receiver Michael Floyd and drafting running back Dalvin Cook and center Pat Elflein with their first two picks. The result? They shored up holes around their stars and finished 10th in points scored and reached the NFC Championship game.

The 2020 Vikings defense finished 29th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 28th in points per drive and 31st in opponent scoring percentage. Now Minnesota is looking for another rapid turnaround that stems from a focused offseason approach to fix one side of the ball.

Will it work? Let’s see what the 2021 defense would have to do in order to match the 2017 defense, and whether a lightning-fast turnaround is realistic.

COVERAGE
2017 Key Personnel w/ Coverage Grades:
CB Trae Waynes (66th of 126)
CB Xavier Rhodes (40th of 126)
CB Terence Newman (11th of 39 in slot)
CB Mackensie Alexander (21st of 39 in slot)
S Harrison Smith (1st of 95)
S Andrew Sendejo (26th of 95)

2021 Projected Personnel w/ 2020 Coverage Grades:
CB Patrick Peterson (91st of 136)
CB Cameron Dantzler (33rd of 136)
CB Jeff Gladney (108th of 136, T-29th of 49 in slot)
CB Mackensie Alexander (T-29th of 49 in slot)
S Harrison Smith (10th of 99)
S Xavier Woods (50th of 99)

Comparison: Grade-wise, the 2017 Vikings cover men weren’t spectacular aside from Harrison Smith, who ranked atop the NFL. However, they didn’t have any weak links. Last year, the Vikings had three corners in Jeff Gladney, Holton Hill and Chris Jones that ranked 100th or lower. Kris Boyd also played over 300 snaps and ranked 84th. Weak links were everywhere, and it showed as the Vikings ranked 30th in net yards per attempt allowed.

The 2021 team should have fewer of those weak links, depending on how you view Patrick Peterson’s trajectory. He’s slumped in Arizona the last two seasons, which is alarming. But he’ll at minimum be a stabilizing presence at the end of games. Minnesota’s best corner last year, Cameron Dantzler, was the biggest liability in clutch situations as he was involved in breakdowns against Seattle, Dallas and Jacksonville that led to late-game scores. Peterson will need to be the Terence Newman of this group, offering heady play in important spots while playing the mentor role. Best-case scenario, he becomes the Xavier Rhodes of 2017, whose PFF grade doesn’t reflect how effective he was against top receivers. That might be a stretch for Peterson at age 31, but it’s not impossible.

If Dantzler stays healthy, plays smarter in fourth quarters and duplicates the way he played at his best in 2020, he could be as good or better than Trae Waynes in 2017.

It looks again like the Vikings will have a rotation, particularly in the slot where Mackensie Alexander could split reps with Jeff Gladney, sort of like he did with Newman in 2017. There’s no reason Alexander can’t offer the same thing he did in 2017. Gladney will need to take a step, though, if he wants to stay on the field. Interestingly, he’s in the same position Alexander was in 2017 — a second-year corner fighting for snaps in a deep cornerback room.

At safety, Smith’s best days might be behind him but he’ll still be effective. Xavier Woods will need to be similar to Andrew Sendejo, who was quite good in 2017 despite his penchant for illegal hits. It will be tough for the 2021 tandem to match the 2017 performance considering one of the pieces this year is new to the defense.

Verdict: The 2017 defense had been together for three-ish years already and didn’t require a lot of early-season adjustments. We can’t say the same about the 2021 group, which could have a few moving parts in the early going. They also don’t have a Xavier Rhodes-type — that we know of yet — who will be able to shadow and stymie top targets. Squeezing a top 10 pass defense out of this group would be a lofty goal, but it could happen if the stars align.

RUN DEFENSE
2017 Key Personnel w/ Grades vs. Run:
DT Linval Joseph (5th of 134)
DT Tom Johnson (71st of 134)
DT Shamar Stephen (58th of 134)
LB Anthony Barr (45th of 99)
LB Eric Kendricks (51st of 99)

2021 Projected Personnel w/ 2020 Grades vs. Run:
DT Michael Pierce (44th of 123*) — 2019 grade
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (30th of 138)
LB Anthony Barr (49th of 101*) —2019 grade
LB Eric Kendricks (26th of 99)

Comparison: Obviously there are more players involved in stopping the run than just defensive tackles and linebackers, but these are the primary contributors.

In 2017 the Vikings only gave up 150 yards on the ground once in the regular season at Carolina. That happened five times in 2020 against a weak interior front that often got gashed in short yardage situations — eighth worst in the league in first down rate on short-yardage carries. Conversely, nobody ever wanted to challenge the 2017 Vikings on a third-and-short thanks to Linval Joseph’s larger-than-life presence. When opponents did try to run up the middle in key spots they failed — just ask the Saints in the Divisional playoff game.

Minnesota lost that in 2020 and got punished, finishing 27th in yards allowed on the ground. They should have it back and then some with Michael Pierce returning in 2021 along with prized free agent pickup Dalvin Tomlinson. Though both had a relatively down year in their most recent season, their career averages suggest that they’ll be a tremendous upgrade from Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson, who ranked 72nd and 132nd last season, respectively.

But can they be as good as the 2017 team, which ranked fifth-best in yards per carry and second in total yards allowed?

PASS RUSH
2017 Key Personnel w/ Pass Rush Grades:
DE Everson Griffen (11th of 124)
DE Danielle Hunter (59th of 124)
DE Brian Robison (83rd of 124)
DT Tom Johnson (52nd of 134)

2021 Projected Personnel w/ 2020 Pass Rush Grades:
DE Danielle Hunter (8th of 121*) — 2019 grade
DE Stephen Weatherly (113 of 125)
DE D.J. Wonnum (115 of 125)
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (22nd of 138)

Comparison: The 2017 Vikings graded 11th in pass rush by PFF standards. The 2020 team? Dead last. The departure of Everson Griffen, the injury to Danielle Hunter and the opt-out of Michael Pierce doomed Minnesota from the start, and not even a Yannick Ngakoue band-aid could help.

One piece of the 2017 puzzle should be restored with Hunter coming back as a top 10 pass rusher if his neck is healed and reported contract issues resolved. That doesn’t change the fact that edge rushers No. 2 and No. 3 in the pecking order are serious question marks. Both Stephen Weatherly and D.J. Wonnum finished in the bottom 10 percent in pass-rush grade last year, so it’ll be incumbent on the Vikings to either find someone late in free agency or draft an edge rusher fairly high. Even with remaining additions, it’s unlikely they’ll have two stars like Griffen and Hunter and an 11-year veteran with 60 career sacks like Brian Robison as their swing man. Keep in mind: Griffen and Hunter combined for 121 pressures in 2017. Last year, Jalyn Holmes, Armon Watts, Hercules Mata’afa, Ifeadi Odenigbo, D.J. Wonnum and Harrison Smith combined for 124.

The pass rush from the defensive tackle spot is a concern, too. In eight combined seasons for Pierce and Tomlinson, their career high in pressures is 28 (Tomlinson, 2020). Tom Johnson had a down year in 2017 and still registered 31. Furthermore, there is not a tremendous amount of depth on the defensive line. Zimmer can bring blitzes from the linebacker and safety spots, but that’s not a sustainable method for creating consistent pressure, as we saw last year.

Verdict: The 2021 Vikings are weak at one end spot barring a Chase Young-type draft pick, and their run-stuffing extraordinaires in the middle aren’t going to push the pocket as much as a true three-technique would. Perhaps Zimmer can devise a brilliant third-down sub-package that gets pressure after the run-stuffers have put the opponent in third-and-long, but early-down pressure is important too, and generating that could be challenging.

TAKEAWAYS
2017 Stats:
14 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries, 19 takeaways (T-23rd)

2020 Stats:
15 interceptions, 7 fumble recoveries, 22 takeaways (T-10th)

Comparison: One area where the 2017 Vikings curiously lacked was takeaways. They still finished plus-5 in turnover differential because of how well they protected the football, but it’s a testament to how good they were that they finished first in scoring defense despite having fewer than 20 takeaways.

Turnovers are pretty random. Last season the Vikings had seven interceptions from linebackers alone, which may not translate into future seasons. More concerningly, their cornerback group was held to three picks on the year.

Nonetheless, the Vikings finished tied for 10th in 2020 with 22 takeaways, even though they generated little pressure and didn’t play well in pass defense. The 2021 unit wouldn’t have to do much to duplicate the 2017 team’s takeaway total, which was bottom 10 in the league. They’ll just need to match last year’s production to be successful.

Verdict: The 2017 group was so good at everything else, that takeaways weren’t all that important. The 2020 group was so poor that not even a top 10 takeaway total could save them. The 2021 team certainly has the tools to be league average in this department, particularly if their pass defense on the boundaries is better. But from year to year, it’s very hard to predict where the turnover number will go. If it regresses, the defense won’t have a shot at being a top unit.

THIRD DOWNS
2017 Stats:
Opponents’ third-down conversion rate: 25.3% (1st)

2020 Stats:
Opponents’ third-down conversion rate: 39.5% (T-10th)

Comparison: It’s silly to expect the Vikings to match their historical effort from 2017 on third downs, a record that was actually broken two seasons ago by the New England Patriots.

More realistically, what were tools that the 2017 team had that made them so good, and does the 2021 team possess any of them as well?

They had an outstanding press/shadow corner in Rhodes that allowed fewer than 60 yards in every game but one. Could Peterson be that guy again? Maybe, but it would take a big improvement.

They had a short-yardage stuffer in Joseph that was huge on 3rd/4th and 1. The 2021 team has Pierce, so that’ll work.

They had a pair of linebackers that worked extremely well together and could sniff out tight ends on short passing routes. Kendricks and Barr haven’t changed.

And they had Zimmer calling the plays, which will be true again. Third downs have been one of Zimmer’s strongest pieces of coaching in the last seven seasons.

Verdict: If Zimmer can coax a top 10 finish in third-down defense out of last year’s mediocre group, then the Vikings can certainly get back there with their projected starters in 2021.

FINAL ASSESSMENT
It’s easy to see the 2021 Vikings improving on last year, but stacked up against the 2017 club you quickly realize how much they have to prove from a pass rush and coverage standpoint. It’s possible five defensive starters will be in their first year on the Vikings, which means the chemistry won’t be there right away either.

The 2017 team was also extremely healthy and didn’t have to test its depth much on the defensive side. Injuries could again throw 2021 into disarray, but even a healthy defense may struggle to reach the top 10 without some very good fortune.