[OC] - NFL QB Situations going into 2021
Jan 30, 2021 17:57:43 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 2 more like this
Post by Danchat on Jan 30, 2021 17:57:43 GMT -6
The 2021 offseason is going to be an exciting one for QBs. Let's do the research on what teams need a QB, and who will be available!
I made a tier judging teams by their need/chance they will make a move at QB:
This is all made under the assumption that all free agent QBs will hit the market, and both big trade candidates (Watson & Stafford) will be moved
-- Desperate for a QB --
Format:
(team - notable QBs under contract (notable meaning a potential starter/legit prospect)
Texans - none
If/When DeShaun Watson is traded, Houston will likely have the draft capital needed to land a top QB, or wait until later in the draft. Houston may be the worst team in football in 2021, so veteran QBs may avoid Houston like the plague.
Colts - Jacob Eason (4th round 2020)
With Rivers retiring and Brissett hitting the free agent market, the Colts will be a desirable landing spot for a veteran QB. Their roster is built to win now, likely meaning that they won't be going with a rookie QB to start.
Bears - Nick Foles ($6.67M)
Trubisky is not expected to return, and Foles looked anemic in Nagy's offense. The Bears have little cap room and the 20th pick in the draft, making it harder for them to land one of the top options. They must find a better option, else Pace & Nagy are getting canned.
Lions - Chase Daniel ($5.3M)
The Lions are hitting the Rebuild button again and will be moving Stafford in a trade. This will give them plenty of draft capital to find a replacement. I wouldn't be surprised if they move up from #7 to take Fields or Wilson.
Jaguars - Gardner Minshew ($900K)
Congratulations, Jaguars, you tanked for the 1st overall pick and will be able to take Trevor Lawrence 1st overall! They may opt to trade Minshew, as he's a back-end starter on a super cheap deal thru 2022.
Patriots - Jarrett Stidham ($1M)
Newton completely flamed out, leaving the Patriots with almost nothing at QB. When Stidham got a chance subbing Newton, he looked awful. It's hard to know what Belichick will do next since finding a QB has never been a problem for him, at least for the last 18 years.
Cowboys - none
I don't think Jerry Jones is going to let Dak Prescott go, but in the scenario that he does, the Cowboys don't have a backup plan on the roster. They could go QB with the 10th overall pick.
-- Strongly needs a QB --
Broncos - Drew Lock ($1.9M)
Lock was given 13 games in 2020 to prove himself, and he mostly looked like a bust. John Elway, the guy that drafted him, is still in the building, so it's possible they give him another chance. They'll need to bring in some competition, at the very least.
Panthers - Teddy Bridgewater ($22.95M), Will Grier (3rd round 2019)
Teddy mostly flopped in his first season of his three year deal, and suddenly his contract no longer looks like a discount compared to the next tier of QBs. I would think that they'll be looking at developing a rookie behind him in 2021, but rumors are that they are looking into Stafford and Watson.
WFT - Alex Smith ($23.3M), Kyle Allen & Taylor Heinicke
The Noskins definitely need a franchise QB, but it's possible Ron Rivera could stick with his guys. Smith is probably getting cut due to his mediocre play and little guaranteed money left, but they might opt for a pay cut. If Haskins would have panned out, this team could be legitimately great.
-- Could Make a Move --
Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa ($6.88M)
Normally the Dolphins would be on the "No Need" list, but they might be tempted to make a move for DeShaun Watson. If they do, Tagovailoa would most likely traded there along with other draft picks. If not, they will likely stick with him and hope he takes a big step forward in 2021.
Falcons - Matt Ryan ($40.9M)
The Falcons have been uncompetitive for a few years and they hold the 4th overall pick, so it is possible they go after their QB of the future in this draft. Ryan is 36 and will be a very expensive QB through 2023. If they move him now, they'll have to endure a $45M dead cap hit, so it's more likely he remains on the team for 2021.
49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo ($26.4M)
San Fran might make a move at QB with some better options available than usual, and they can easily get out of Garoppolo's deal with a tiny $2.8M dead cap hit. They will likely be players for Watson and Stafford.
Rams - Jared Goff ($35M)
Reports indicate that the Rams are growing frustrated with Goff, but they just gave him a massive extension that they can't trade without taking a big penalty (dead cap of $22.2M, other team would have to accept $43M guaranteed salary). They may opt to bring in some competition to push Goff to play better, but it's not an ideal situation.
Saints - Taysom Hill ($16.2M)
With Brees likely to retire and the Saints' cap situation around -$90M, they won't be able to make a big addition at QB. They're paying Hill to be the guy, but I expect competition to be added. I wouldn't be surprised if they re-signed Jameis Winston.
Giants - Daniel Jones ($7.2M)
Jones has looked like a bust so far, and the Giants hold the 11th pick in the draft. I don't think they will give up on him so soon, but with the way some teams like to move on to other QBs so quickly, it's possible New York could pull the trigger. Jones was simply never a very good QB prospect.
Jets - Sam Darnold ($9.8M), James Morgan (4th round 2020)
The Jets could go for Watson or draft a QB at #2 with how poorly Darnold has played, but they are also to blame for putting such a terrible coaching staff and personnel around him. He could make for a great reclamation project for another team, as the man who drafted him is no longer in the building. Still, it may be wise to rehab him and focus on improving the team around him.
-- Low Chance of Making a Move --
Vikings - Kirk Cousins ($31M)
The Vikings are stuck with Kirk Cousins thanks to his $45M salary in 2022. It's unlikely they'd be able to trade him, and they'd still lose $20M by moving him. They likely won't make a move here.
Raiders - Derek Carr ($22.1M), Marcus Mariota ($11.4M)
Carr turned in a very strong 2020 after regressing the past few years. His deal is now pretty cheap and has no guaranteed money left on it. Gruden probably won't move him, but he would generate some trade value if Las Vegas entertained offers for him.
Browns - Baker Mayfield ($10.6M), Case Keenum ($7.3M)
The Browns had a great season, but Mayfield didn't have a great year as the Browns mainly rode their running game. They will continue forward with him as their QB barring a stunning move to upgrade the position.
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger ($41.25M), Dwayne Haskins, Mason Rudolph
2021 might just be Big Ben's final year in the NFL, as he looked close to cooked in 2020. They will likely extend his deal to push the money out to better afford his deal. Haskins needs to build himself from the ground up and likely won't become a franchise QB again, so they may opt to spend a high draft pick on a QB of the future.
Eagles - Carson Wentz ($34.67M), Jalen Hurts ($1.4M)
Wentz enters Year 1 of his 4 year extension having a terrible 2020 season and being benched. With Pederson fired, the Eagles appear to be focused on rehabbing Wentz. Hurts looked like the better QB, and while he needs time to develop, he has the potential to be a franchise QB. Will Philly trade Hurts while his stock is high and build around Wentz, or will the Eagles look to move Wentz in 2022 and crown Hurts as their franchise QB? Either way, I see little chance for a new QB to join their mix in 2021.
-- No Need --
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson ($3M) - He'll be getting his mega-deal soon.
Tampa Bay - Tom Brady ($27.9M) - Tampa may draft his replacement, but Brady will be the starter at age 44 in 2021.
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers ($37.2M), Jordan Love ($2.8M) - There's no way the Packers will trade Rodgers this offseason. Possibly in 2022. Love reportedly has not looked close to ready.
Buffalo - Josh Allen ($6.9M) - Allen jumped into the top 10 and maybe top 5 QBs in the league. He will be rewarded exuberantly soon.
Chiefs - Pat Mahomes ($24.8M) - Enough said.
Chargers - Justin Herbert ($6M) - Coming off a fantastic rookie year, Herbert is going nowhere.
Bengals - Joe Burrow ($8.2M) - Burrow had a nasty ACL tear, but should be ready to return in September/October 2021. They should prioritize finding a better backup.
Cardinals - Kyler Murray ($9.8M) - Murray didn't take off quite as expected in 2020, and may take a leap forward in 2021.
Seahawks - Russell Wilson ($32M) - Russell should not be going anywhere.
Titans - Ryan Tannehill ($29.5) - Tannehill is being paid a lot for a QB in a run-first offense, but he does have the look of a true franchise QB now. He's on year 1 of a 3 year extension.
QBs to Trade For
DeShaun Watson - If he successfully forces his way out, Watson will be the premier QB to acquire this offseason. The starting price will be 3 1st rounders and a player... and that's just the starting price.
Matthew Stafford - He'll command at least one first rounder since he'll come very cheap at a $20M salary in 2021. The 33 year old might finally win a playoff game if put on an above average squad, something he's never gotten a chance to do in Detroit.
Jimmy Garoppolo - Jimmy can't stay healthy, as his 2018 and 2020 seasons were ruined by injuries, but he went on a Super Bowl run in his only year he was able to stay healthy. His $23.6M price tag in 2021 is palatable, but it's worth asking if he's ever going to stay healthy and improve his game - he would have won that Super Bowl with a bit more accuracy on his arm.
Gardner Minshew - He's incredibly cheap and plays far better than most 6th round QB prospects, but his skillset is limited. He'd be a perfect option for a cheap that has cap issues and is desperate for an upgrade at QB.
Free Agent QBs
#1 Dak Prescott - He's the only legitimate franchise QB hitting the market, and he'll command a ton of money. Dallas will likely succumb to his desires and pay up.
#2 Ryan Fitzpatrick - He looked better than Tua and is a top-notch backup who's capable of winning any game, but can also shipwreck any game. He may be 39, but he played great this year and did far better than expected in 2019 with a terrible supporting cast. He's the perfect bridge QB.
#3 Mitchell Trubisky - Ugh. Welcome to the shallow end of QB options. Trubisky was a massive bust, and don't let his 2020 stats deceive you, he still stinks and pads his stats again poor defenses. He's got enough upside left that a team will likely bring him in to compete for a job.
#4 Jameis Winston - It's telling that he didn't get to start when Brees went down. In his 11 attempts in 2020, one was a dropped interception. He's capable of getting to the ball to his playmakers and scoring points, but unfortunately he also scores too many points for the other team. He'll likely compete for a job.
#5 Andy Dalton - He's just a good backup now.
#6 Jacoby Brissett - Brissett flunked hard in 2019, and could get a bit of interest on the market, but he really shouldn't.
#7 Tyrod Taylor - He's a quality backup and a fine bridge QB.
#8 Cam Newton - Once thought to be a brilliant signing by Belichick, Newton proved that he's cooked. He's still a strong runner and he's dangerous in the redzone. He'd work in the Taysom Hill role, if he were willing.
#9 C.J. Beathard - He looked much better in small doses in 2020, but he'll already be 28. He'll be a passable backup.
#10 Nick Mullens (RFA) - A promising backup, Mullens devolved into Jameis Winston this year, tossing 12 picks in 8 starts.
I'd love to see some predictions on who will end up where. There are so many possibilities, so tell me who is going where and why!
I made a tier judging teams by their need/chance they will make a move at QB:
This is all made under the assumption that all free agent QBs will hit the market, and both big trade candidates (Watson & Stafford) will be moved
-- Desperate for a QB --
Format:
(team - notable QBs under contract (notable meaning a potential starter/legit prospect)
Texans - none
If/When DeShaun Watson is traded, Houston will likely have the draft capital needed to land a top QB, or wait until later in the draft. Houston may be the worst team in football in 2021, so veteran QBs may avoid Houston like the plague.
Colts - Jacob Eason (4th round 2020)
With Rivers retiring and Brissett hitting the free agent market, the Colts will be a desirable landing spot for a veteran QB. Their roster is built to win now, likely meaning that they won't be going with a rookie QB to start.
Bears - Nick Foles ($6.67M)
Trubisky is not expected to return, and Foles looked anemic in Nagy's offense. The Bears have little cap room and the 20th pick in the draft, making it harder for them to land one of the top options. They must find a better option, else Pace & Nagy are getting canned.
Lions - Chase Daniel ($5.3M)
The Lions are hitting the Rebuild button again and will be moving Stafford in a trade. This will give them plenty of draft capital to find a replacement. I wouldn't be surprised if they move up from #7 to take Fields or Wilson.
Jaguars - Gardner Minshew ($900K)
Congratulations, Jaguars, you tanked for the 1st overall pick and will be able to take Trevor Lawrence 1st overall! They may opt to trade Minshew, as he's a back-end starter on a super cheap deal thru 2022.
Patriots - Jarrett Stidham ($1M)
Newton completely flamed out, leaving the Patriots with almost nothing at QB. When Stidham got a chance subbing Newton, he looked awful. It's hard to know what Belichick will do next since finding a QB has never been a problem for him, at least for the last 18 years.
Cowboys - none
I don't think Jerry Jones is going to let Dak Prescott go, but in the scenario that he does, the Cowboys don't have a backup plan on the roster. They could go QB with the 10th overall pick.
-- Strongly needs a QB --
Broncos - Drew Lock ($1.9M)
Lock was given 13 games in 2020 to prove himself, and he mostly looked like a bust. John Elway, the guy that drafted him, is still in the building, so it's possible they give him another chance. They'll need to bring in some competition, at the very least.
Panthers - Teddy Bridgewater ($22.95M), Will Grier (3rd round 2019)
Teddy mostly flopped in his first season of his three year deal, and suddenly his contract no longer looks like a discount compared to the next tier of QBs. I would think that they'll be looking at developing a rookie behind him in 2021, but rumors are that they are looking into Stafford and Watson.
WFT - Alex Smith ($23.3M), Kyle Allen & Taylor Heinicke
The Noskins definitely need a franchise QB, but it's possible Ron Rivera could stick with his guys. Smith is probably getting cut due to his mediocre play and little guaranteed money left, but they might opt for a pay cut. If Haskins would have panned out, this team could be legitimately great.
-- Could Make a Move --
Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa ($6.88M)
Normally the Dolphins would be on the "No Need" list, but they might be tempted to make a move for DeShaun Watson. If they do, Tagovailoa would most likely traded there along with other draft picks. If not, they will likely stick with him and hope he takes a big step forward in 2021.
Falcons - Matt Ryan ($40.9M)
The Falcons have been uncompetitive for a few years and they hold the 4th overall pick, so it is possible they go after their QB of the future in this draft. Ryan is 36 and will be a very expensive QB through 2023. If they move him now, they'll have to endure a $45M dead cap hit, so it's more likely he remains on the team for 2021.
49ers - Jimmy Garoppolo ($26.4M)
San Fran might make a move at QB with some better options available than usual, and they can easily get out of Garoppolo's deal with a tiny $2.8M dead cap hit. They will likely be players for Watson and Stafford.
Rams - Jared Goff ($35M)
Reports indicate that the Rams are growing frustrated with Goff, but they just gave him a massive extension that they can't trade without taking a big penalty (dead cap of $22.2M, other team would have to accept $43M guaranteed salary). They may opt to bring in some competition to push Goff to play better, but it's not an ideal situation.
Saints - Taysom Hill ($16.2M)
With Brees likely to retire and the Saints' cap situation around -$90M, they won't be able to make a big addition at QB. They're paying Hill to be the guy, but I expect competition to be added. I wouldn't be surprised if they re-signed Jameis Winston.
Giants - Daniel Jones ($7.2M)
Jones has looked like a bust so far, and the Giants hold the 11th pick in the draft. I don't think they will give up on him so soon, but with the way some teams like to move on to other QBs so quickly, it's possible New York could pull the trigger. Jones was simply never a very good QB prospect.
Jets - Sam Darnold ($9.8M), James Morgan (4th round 2020)
The Jets could go for Watson or draft a QB at #2 with how poorly Darnold has played, but they are also to blame for putting such a terrible coaching staff and personnel around him. He could make for a great reclamation project for another team, as the man who drafted him is no longer in the building. Still, it may be wise to rehab him and focus on improving the team around him.
-- Low Chance of Making a Move --
Vikings - Kirk Cousins ($31M)
The Vikings are stuck with Kirk Cousins thanks to his $45M salary in 2022. It's unlikely they'd be able to trade him, and they'd still lose $20M by moving him. They likely won't make a move here.
Raiders - Derek Carr ($22.1M), Marcus Mariota ($11.4M)
Carr turned in a very strong 2020 after regressing the past few years. His deal is now pretty cheap and has no guaranteed money left on it. Gruden probably won't move him, but he would generate some trade value if Las Vegas entertained offers for him.
Browns - Baker Mayfield ($10.6M), Case Keenum ($7.3M)
The Browns had a great season, but Mayfield didn't have a great year as the Browns mainly rode their running game. They will continue forward with him as their QB barring a stunning move to upgrade the position.
Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger ($41.25M), Dwayne Haskins, Mason Rudolph
2021 might just be Big Ben's final year in the NFL, as he looked close to cooked in 2020. They will likely extend his deal to push the money out to better afford his deal. Haskins needs to build himself from the ground up and likely won't become a franchise QB again, so they may opt to spend a high draft pick on a QB of the future.
Eagles - Carson Wentz ($34.67M), Jalen Hurts ($1.4M)
Wentz enters Year 1 of his 4 year extension having a terrible 2020 season and being benched. With Pederson fired, the Eagles appear to be focused on rehabbing Wentz. Hurts looked like the better QB, and while he needs time to develop, he has the potential to be a franchise QB. Will Philly trade Hurts while his stock is high and build around Wentz, or will the Eagles look to move Wentz in 2022 and crown Hurts as their franchise QB? Either way, I see little chance for a new QB to join their mix in 2021.
-- No Need --
Baltimore - Lamar Jackson ($3M) - He'll be getting his mega-deal soon.
Tampa Bay - Tom Brady ($27.9M) - Tampa may draft his replacement, but Brady will be the starter at age 44 in 2021.
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers ($37.2M), Jordan Love ($2.8M) - There's no way the Packers will trade Rodgers this offseason. Possibly in 2022. Love reportedly has not looked close to ready.
Buffalo - Josh Allen ($6.9M) - Allen jumped into the top 10 and maybe top 5 QBs in the league. He will be rewarded exuberantly soon.
Chiefs - Pat Mahomes ($24.8M) - Enough said.
Chargers - Justin Herbert ($6M) - Coming off a fantastic rookie year, Herbert is going nowhere.
Bengals - Joe Burrow ($8.2M) - Burrow had a nasty ACL tear, but should be ready to return in September/October 2021. They should prioritize finding a better backup.
Cardinals - Kyler Murray ($9.8M) - Murray didn't take off quite as expected in 2020, and may take a leap forward in 2021.
Seahawks - Russell Wilson ($32M) - Russell should not be going anywhere.
Titans - Ryan Tannehill ($29.5) - Tannehill is being paid a lot for a QB in a run-first offense, but he does have the look of a true franchise QB now. He's on year 1 of a 3 year extension.
QBs to Trade For
DeShaun Watson - If he successfully forces his way out, Watson will be the premier QB to acquire this offseason. The starting price will be 3 1st rounders and a player... and that's just the starting price.
Matthew Stafford - He'll command at least one first rounder since he'll come very cheap at a $20M salary in 2021. The 33 year old might finally win a playoff game if put on an above average squad, something he's never gotten a chance to do in Detroit.
Jimmy Garoppolo - Jimmy can't stay healthy, as his 2018 and 2020 seasons were ruined by injuries, but he went on a Super Bowl run in his only year he was able to stay healthy. His $23.6M price tag in 2021 is palatable, but it's worth asking if he's ever going to stay healthy and improve his game - he would have won that Super Bowl with a bit more accuracy on his arm.
Gardner Minshew - He's incredibly cheap and plays far better than most 6th round QB prospects, but his skillset is limited. He'd be a perfect option for a cheap that has cap issues and is desperate for an upgrade at QB.
Free Agent QBs
#1 Dak Prescott - He's the only legitimate franchise QB hitting the market, and he'll command a ton of money. Dallas will likely succumb to his desires and pay up.
#2 Ryan Fitzpatrick - He looked better than Tua and is a top-notch backup who's capable of winning any game, but can also shipwreck any game. He may be 39, but he played great this year and did far better than expected in 2019 with a terrible supporting cast. He's the perfect bridge QB.
#3 Mitchell Trubisky - Ugh. Welcome to the shallow end of QB options. Trubisky was a massive bust, and don't let his 2020 stats deceive you, he still stinks and pads his stats again poor defenses. He's got enough upside left that a team will likely bring him in to compete for a job.
#4 Jameis Winston - It's telling that he didn't get to start when Brees went down. In his 11 attempts in 2020, one was a dropped interception. He's capable of getting to the ball to his playmakers and scoring points, but unfortunately he also scores too many points for the other team. He'll likely compete for a job.
#5 Andy Dalton - He's just a good backup now.
#6 Jacoby Brissett - Brissett flunked hard in 2019, and could get a bit of interest on the market, but he really shouldn't.
#7 Tyrod Taylor - He's a quality backup and a fine bridge QB.
#8 Cam Newton - Once thought to be a brilliant signing by Belichick, Newton proved that he's cooked. He's still a strong runner and he's dangerous in the redzone. He'd work in the Taysom Hill role, if he were willing.
#9 C.J. Beathard - He looked much better in small doses in 2020, but he'll already be 28. He'll be a passable backup.
#10 Nick Mullens (RFA) - A promising backup, Mullens devolved into Jameis Winston this year, tossing 12 picks in 8 starts.
I'd love to see some predictions on who will end up where. There are so many possibilities, so tell me who is going where and why!
