Rick Spielman appears to be the worst drafting GM we've had

Evaluating NFL general managers fairly can be difficult. GMs from different teams with different owners deal with different challenges after inheriting different rosters. Some have different levels of authority. The dumb luck involved in the draft — where in the order a team selects, which players happen to be available — can change everything for a franchise. If teams really could forecast which drafted quarterbacks would become stars and which ones would fizzle out, the New England Patriots never would have let Tom Brady slip to the sixth round. The Dallas Cowboys never would have prioritized Paxton Lynch over Dak Prescott. Patrick Mahomes never would have slipped outside the top 10 overall picks. The Seattle Seahawks would have selected Russell Wilson before the third round.

Ultimately, we evaluate GMs by their won-lost records, but even that becomes a little complicated. Some GMs have been on the job for 10 or 15 years. Others are just getting started. There is no logical way to stack all 32 GMs against one another, which is why I’ve separated them into buckets based on how long they’ve been in their roles. Stacking GMs by winning percentage within experience buckets dramatically improved my own ability to compare them. We can also see more clearly which ones could be in trouble next, and which ones might deserve raises. Below I’ve highlighted GMs who have won Super Bowls in the role while laying out won-lost records, playoff success, draft histories and more.

NFL GM Report: 10-Plus Drafts

Seven current GMs have been in the role for at least 10 drafts. The top five in winning percentage won Super Bowls. The bottom two in winning percentage own their teams, giving them ultimate job security. Thomas Dimitroff fell between those two groups in win rate and was fired by the Atlanta Falcons earlier this season. This group has a combined .569 win rate.



1. Bill Belichick (.730): Belichick will land in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a coach who had control over personnel, not for his work as a GM specifically. Some might say his coaching and Brady’s presence on the roster allowed Belichick to overcome some questionable work as a GM on his way to six Super Bowl victories. Whatever the case, Belichick has put together teams that have won at an astounding clip. Think of it this way: Dimitroff can take pride in his 109-88 record as the Falcons’ GM, but to match Belichick’s record in the role, he would have needed to keep his job and then post a 134-2 record in the future, to say nothing of winning six championships.

2. Kevin Colbert (.652): Colbert became the Steelers’ de facto GM in 2000 and then assumed the title formally in 2010. Pittsburgh has drafted 10 Pro Bowlers and six Associated Press First-Team All-Pros since 2010 despite picking among the top 15 just once over that span. Landing T.J. Watt with the 30th pick in the 2017 draft was a franchise-altering move. Adding Minkah Fitzpatrick by trade has also worked out well for the Steelers.

3. John Schneider (.633): While coach Pete Carroll has ultimate authority in Seattle, Schneider was the driving force behind the Seahawks’ decision to draft Wilson in 2012, even though the team had invested in the quarterback position during free agency. The team has drafted four strong candidates for the Hall of Fame on Schneider’s watch in Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman and Wilson. Kam Chancellor was trending that way before suffering a career-ending neck injury, and still could factor for consideration.

4. Mickey Loomis (.585): Loomis is the NFL’s longest-tenured GM among those who are not also head coaches or team owners. He is not an evaluator by training, having come up through the ranks on the financial and salary-cap side of team operations. Coach Sean Payton and assistant GM Jeff Ireland, who oversees college scouting, drive the football decisions, allowing Loomis to double as head of basketball operations for the NBA’s Pelicans until last year.

5. John Elway (.573): While Brian Xanders held the GM title through the 2012 draft, Elway has been the Broncos’ highest-ranking football decision-maker since 2011 (he added the GM title in 2014). His signature move was signing Peyton Manning, whose presence on the roster changed everything for Denver, including the team’s ability to recruit select free agents. Since 2011, the Broncos have a 45-12 record when Manning starts at quarterback, compared to 45-54 when others start at the position. This phenomenon is not unique to Elway or the Broncos. Everyone looks smarter with an all-time great quarterback taking the snaps.

6. Thomas Dimitroff (.553): Dimitroff helped build a Super Bowl team in Atlanta and might still be the Falcons’ GM if the team had not lost that 25-point lead against New England. The Falcons ranked tied for eighth in winning percentage across Dimitroff’s tenure. The offense was usually very good, ranking fourth in expected points added (EPA) under Dimitroff. The defense was another story, ranking just 30th despite having defensive-minded head coaches every season. The lone first-team All-Pro drafted on defense was Vic Beasley, whose 15.5-sack season in 2016 proved to be an outlier.

7. Jerry Jones (.538): The Cowboys won 63 percent of their games with three Super Bowl victories during the 1990s. They have won less than 52 percent of their games without reaching a Super Bowl since then, despite some successes in the draft. Jones earned a spot in the Hall of Fame on the strength of that 1990s success combined with his obvious business acumen, not for his accomplishments as a GM over the past couple decades. It’s no coincidence that the GMs with the worst won-lost records in this category own their teams.

8. Mike Brown (.403): The Bengals are the only team in the league without a playoff victory since Brown took over as GM in 1991. Only the Cleveland Browns have a worse regular-season record than the Bengals during that time. Again, owning the team has its privileges.

NFL GM Report: 5-9 Drafts

Eight more current GMs have been on the job for 5-9 drafts. Two others in this category, Bob Quinn and Dave Caldwell, were fired during the current season. The Philadelphia Eagles’ Howie Roseman is the only one from this group to win a Super Bowl in the role. Of the others, only the Los Angeles Rams’ Les Snead has made it to one. This group has a combined .472 win rate.



1. Jon Robinson (.584): Robinson has rocketed to the top of this group with the Titans’ success this season and the Eagles’ collapse. With two victories over the final three games this season, Robinson can surpass the 46-34 mark posted by former Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt over the same number of seasons (2008-2012). Don Suman (20-7-1) and Mike Holovak (42-22) own the best winning percentages for Titans GMs who were not also head coaches. Floyd Reese (106-102) owns the most victories for a GM in franchise history.

2. Rick Spielman (.560): Spielman added the GM title in 2012 after serving as vice president of player personnel since 2006. A case could be made that Spielman’s tenure began in 2006, but former coach Brad Childress held ultimate authority through 2010. The Vikings have a .523 winning percentage since 2006 and a higher one since 2012, despite a 6-7 record this season. Minnesota would surely trade some of its standout success in drafting running backs and wide receivers for better luck with quarterbacks.

3. Howie Roseman (.552): I’m starting the clock on Roseman with the 2016 season, when former coach Chip Kelly departed and Roseman became de facto GM (he added the title formally in 2019). Roseman was previously GM from 2010-2014, but former coach Andy Reid had full authority through most of that tenure, leaving the past five seasons as the relevant time period for evaluation. Roseman built a Super Bowl team with a coach he helped hire. He is the only GM in this bucket with a Super Bowl ring to show for his efforts. The Eagles’ missteps in keeping open their championship window have created uncertainty for the future.

4. Les Snead (.521): Snead will graduate into the 10-plus drafts bucket next year and will slot in behind the Cowboys’ Jones for winning percentage, with a higher recent trajectory. The Rams were 31-49 during Snead’s first five seasons, when Jeff Fisher was the coach and quarterback Sam Bradford was frequently injured. The Rams are 42-19 under current coach Sean McVay, tied with New England for third-best in the league behind New Orleans and Kansas City. Some of the team’s roster-building tactics have drawn criticism that increasingly appears misplaced.

5. Steve Keim (.520): Keim’s previously successful tenure appeared to be winding down in 2018 when choices at quarterback (Josh Rosen), head coach (Steve Wilks) and off the field (Keim’s guilty plea to extreme DUI charges) had the Cardinals in some disarray. The future appears brighter now after Keim served a league suspension, hired a new coach (Kliff Kingsbury) and drafted a new quarterback (Kyler Murray). The path forward in the NFC West is not an easy one, however, as every other team in the division has been to the Super Bowl with its current head coach and quarterback.

6. Tom Telesco (.460): While Telesco appears to have landed a promising franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert this year, his track record for hiring head coaches invites scrutiny. Shortly after Telesco’s hiring in 2013, the Chargers canceled an interview with Bruce Arians to hire Mike McCoy instead because, as Telesco put it at the time, “we just felt we had to have him now” or else someone else would hire McCoy. Arians then teamed with Carson Palmer in Arizona to become the winningest coach in franchise history (49-30-1 record). McCoy went 27-37 in four seasons before Telesco and the Chargers hired Anthony Lynn, whose record has slipped to 31-31 following a string of game-management and special-teams blunders.

7. Ryan Pace (.430): Pace, like Telesco, would be on his third head coach if his team decided to make a change on the sideline while staying the course in the front office. Unlike Telesco, who can point to Herbert as a likely long-term franchise quarterback, Pace would probably need to find another quarterback as well, on the assumption Mitch Trubisky’s recently improved play is not enough for the franchise to bet on him. The Bears do have a winning record under coach Matt Nagy, but the selection of Trubisky over Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes could be difficult to overcome, especially after Chicago suffered five consecutive defeats following a 5-1 start to this season.

8. Bob Quinn (.420): Quinn hired a defensive-minded head coach in Matt Patricia to replace Jim Caldwell following a 9-7 season, only to have the Lions rank 31st in defensive EPA during Patricia’s three-plus seasons on the job. The Lions fired Quinn following a Thanksgiving Day defeat this season. They’re already lining up interviews with candidates.

9. Jason Licht (.385): The Buccaneers, with one winning season in seven years under Licht (9-7 in 2016) and two in 11 years since firing Jon Gruden, completed a Hail Mary by landing Tom Brady this past offseason. Brady’s salary is guaranteed through next season. How far can the Buccaneers go during that relatively tight window? They could finish anywhere from 8-8 to 11-5 this season.

10. Dave Caldwell (.301): While Caldwell held the GM title from 2013 through his firing this season, the Jaguars did hand over control to Tom Coughlin from 2017 through most of the 2019 season. The Jaguars were 20-26 during that period with Coughlin and 17-60 during the remainder of Caldwell’s tenure. Trent Baalke is serving as interim GM.