Why we shouldn't fire our HC,GM & QB

Firing Everyone Makes So Much Sense. Until You Dig a Little Deeper.

Since the 49ers injuries began to mount this season, Robert Saleh’s defense has given up 31 points a game, and the 49ers have lost six of their last seven. Not so much different than Mike Zimmer this year- certainly not any better. Saleh has had a top ten defense in points allowed once in the last four years since he became defensive coordinator for the 49ers. Zimmer has done it five straight seasons prior to this one. Is Saleh really a better defensive coach? Or is he just riding the eight first-round pick acquisitions plus Richard Sherman the 49ers have assembled over the past several years?

And who is the genius behind the Chiefs offense? Is it Eric Bieniemy? Is it Andy Reid? Is it Patrick Mahomes? Reid has been the primary play caller, and it is his scheme, while Bieniemy has called plays and is credited, at least in part, for its success. But Patrick Mahomes, along with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, are the playmakers. Andy Reid won only a single playoff game in five seasons with Kansas City before Mahomes became the starting QB. And then of course there is Gary Kubiak, the bird in hand, who has won more Super Bowls as a coach than Reid and Bieniemy, and has coached top ten offenses in 15 of his 23 seasons as offensive coordinator or head coach. Hmmm- is Bieniemy really an upgrade?

But why not draft the next Patrick Mahomes? Can’t go wrong there. Picking up a generational talent at the most important position in professional sports is a no-brainer. Except QBs like Mahomes only come around... once in a generation. And none of the other QBs drafted since Mahomes have done better than... wait for it... one Kirk Daniel Cousins. In fact the vast majority of QBs taken since Cousins back in 2012 haven’t done as well. What are the odds the Vikings draft a generational QB talent next April? Or one that’s immediately or even eventually better than Cousins is now? Not so good. Maybe ten to one, maybe longer, judging by the success rate over the last several years. Meanwhile the QB bird in hand is top ten at least in most passing metrics, despite being one of the most pressured QBs in the league and having one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines every season since joining the Vikings.

You Don’t Have to Dig Too Deep to Find Where the Vikings Real Problems Lie

It’s often been sort of a rule of thumb for the Vikings, going back many years if not six decades, that if the Vikings could hold the other team to around 20 points or less, pretty good chance the Vikings win. Scoring is up a bit on average this year, but even allowing for that, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have scored 26 or more points in 11 games this season- only the Chiefs have done that in more games than the Vikings. The Vikings record in those 11 games: 5-6. There have only been 3 games when the Vikings failed to score at least 23 points this season.

That’s one way of illustrating the problem. Another way is this: the Vikings defense has gone from 5th in points allowed last season to currently 31st this season - although they’ve played one more game than contenders for the worst defense.

It’s not too much to say that the heart of the Vikings run defense this season was made primarily from career backups, as was the pass rush, while the primary coverage duties were left to rookies or first-year starters. That’s not a recipe for success in the NFL. Backups up front, and rookies behind, with 2-3 quality vets to clean-up and supervise, isn’t gonna make any coach look good.

Vikings Hall of Fame coach Bud Grant said it’s better to have good players than good coaches, and the proof of that wisdom has been on display this season. Bill Belichick, lord of the rings and master of the Patriots dynasty, but faced with the loss of several core players this season, finds himself out of the postseason, as does Kyle Shanahan (and Robert Saleh), who were coaching in the Super Bowl last February. Are these suddenly bad coaches? Shanahan has dealt with more than one injury-plagued season, but somehow regained his coaching prowess last season when his core players returned to health, and were joined by draft picks from a top draft position. Funny how that works.

Mike Zimmer has endured similar cycles. In 2016 he started out 5-0 despite losing his starting QB the week before the season opener. But then injuries ravaged the offensive line and he ended up 8-8 for the season. The following year he once again lost his starting QB early on, but managed to stay relatively healthy otherwise, and ended up 13-3.

The NFL is at least partly a demolition derby, where the teams that make the playoffs and advance the farthest are often the ones with the fewest injuries to core players. This year Covid and opt-outs have added to the inactive lists across the league. Every team has been affected to some degree, but the Vikings defense has been among the hardest hit.