Danchat's Guide to the 2017 Vikings Offseason
Feb 13, 2017 14:05:52 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 4 more like this
Post by Danchat on Feb 13, 2017 14:05:52 GMT -6
Hello and welcome to my guide for the offseason! Last year around this time I made a similar article back on Vikings Journal, so I thought I’d try a second attempt at it here on Purple Pain. This “guide” is basically what I want to happen this offseason. So here we go…
*Note: This was written on February 13th, shortly after offensive guards Brandon Fusco and Mike Harris were cut.*
Pre-Free Agency
Releases
HB Adrian Peterson (saves $18M in cap)
This has to happen. Peterson had a great run, but his time as a Viking is up. He’s missed 28 games in his last 3 seasons and he’s past his prime. He’s also a one-dimensional running back who could still be useful in a rotation, but it’s time to move on and look to the future at the HB position. Not to mention the Vikings could really use that $18M in cap room…
DE Scott Crichton (saves about $.77M)
Crichton was placed on the IR after the final preseason game and that’s basically the only reason why he’s still here. He was a bust as a 3rd round pick. His salary is $.93M and can be easily replaced.
(they could also cut WR Jarius Wright but they’d only gain $1.5M in cap space. So I’ll pass on this.)
Projected Cap Space at this point: around $43.7M
Re-Signing
DT Toby Johnson, HB C. J. Ham, T Willie Beavers, T Rashod Hill, and G Zac Kerin to minimum deals
All of these guys are exclusive rights free agents, so they’ll be back cheap. Toby Johnson looked good in the preseason and could crack the roster again as the 4th DT. Ham was solid as well but he’ll need to take a big step forward if he wants to be a part of the backfield. Willie Beavers will need to vastly improve over the offseason or he’ll be practice squad fodder. Rashod Hill was claimed off of the Jaguars’ practice squad and played 49 really solid snaps at LT, so he’ll be in the running for a backup tackle spot. Zac Kerin is just a guy and the Vikings can do better for guard/center depth.
WR Cordarelle Patterson – 3 years, $13.5M
If Patterson is willing to accept a deal of this size, then I’d love to have him back. He’s the best kick returner in the league and he’s a weapon that can run the ball and catch screens. It’s pretty clear he’s not going to be a route-running WR and they shouldn’t pay him to be that. Hopefully Patterson will keep up his good performances even when he isn’t on his contract year. Having Norv gone might help too.
CB Terence Newman – 1 year, $4M
Newman was the best CB on this team and he was 38 years old. If he wants to play another year, then he should be received with open arms. He had his best season in 2016 according to Pro Football Focus (though he did lose about 250-300 snaps to Trae Waynes as they rotated). Waynes may step up and become a starter in 2017, but that’d just make Newman a great backup. He’s worth every penny.
WR Adam Thielen – 1st Round Tender (around $3.88M)
With Thielen having a fantastic season and nearing 1000 yards receiving, they’ll need to give him the 1st round tender. Giving him just below $4M is fine, as he deserves more than that. Perhaps they will extend him mid-season, but I’d like to see him repeat his stellar 2016 if he wants to get paid the big bucks.
G/T Jeremiah Sirles – Low Tender (around $1.78M)
I wonder if the Vikings can sneak Sirles through restricted free agency. He didn’t play very well in 9 games at RT, but he filled in very well at guard (sample size of about 178 snaps). He should be back as a reserve at the very least.
Leaving in Free Agency
LT Matt Kalil
The Vikings can’t go into 2017 with Kalil as their LT. Last year I wrote that I wanted Kalil gone, and it turns out I was right. Kalil played in just 2 games but it was clear he was playing through an injury. He underwent major hip surgery and missed the rest of the season. Even when he was healthy, he was sub-replacement level. I would really like to see him return to 2012/2013 form, but it’s not going to happen.
RT Andre Smith
This one doesn’t really warrant an explanation. He was terrible for one and a quarter seasons between the Bengals and Vikings and went down with a triceps injury. He’ll struggle to find any deals on the open market.
CB Captain Munnerlyn
This one’s a tough decision, but I think the Vikings want Mackensie Alexander to step up into the nickel corner role. Munnerlyn had an average 2016 (PFF rating of 75.5) but he’ll likely wanted to be paid higher than what the Vikings want to. I could definitely see him coming back if he doesn’t find the deal he wants in free agency.
QB Shaun Hill
I’m guessing he retires, but if not, the Vikings should move forward without Hill as the backup. He did a fine job in his spot start, but the Vikes should look for someone younger. I know they want Taylor Heinicke to step up and win the job.
OLB Chad Greenway
If he isn’t retiring, I’ll take a hard pass. I love the guy and he definitely brings some leadership to the team, but his play has been below average for some time. It shouldn’t be hard to plug in another player at the OLB position to play 40-50% of the snaps (Emmanuel Lamur or Kentrell Brothers could do the job).
TE Rhett Ellison
It was a surprise that Rhett even started the 2016 season after tearing his patellar tendon in the 2015 playoffs. He had a below average 2016 and he was part of the problem in the run blocking department. The Vikings drafted a good blocking TE in David Morgan last season, so Ellison may move on. I would be fine if they gave him a deal in the range of 2 years and $6M.
FB Zach Line
With Peterson moving on, the Vikings don’t need a fullback. Line had his best season but his play was just average. I’m not sure if OC Pat Shurmur wants a FB in his offense.
HB Matt Asiata
Here, I’ll regurgitate what I said last year about him: “He's more of a fullback who can pass block and catch passes, but he's not going to wow you. The Vikings can find those same qualities in other players, so they should move on from Asiata. He'll get a shot at cracking someone else's roster.” In 2016, his pass blocking got worse and he showed a lack of power – especially in short yardage situation. Some of that was the O-line’s fault, but Asiata is just a guy who gets what the OL blocks for him.
P Jeff Locke
He ranked 29th/30 in average punting yards and 25th/30 in net yards. For an offense that punts a lot, they need a better punter.
MLB Audie Cole & DE Justin Trattou
These two are favorites of mine, but they’re aging and the Vikings can replace these guys with younger players. They can be invited to training camp on minimum deals if Spielman doesn’t fill their voids.
T Jake Long
I really feel for this guy. He was filling in admirably at LT, playing far better than Kalil or Clemmings did, and then he tears his Achilles. He’s been dealing with injuries his whole career, so he should retire.
WR Charles Johnson – Non tender
Johnson went from Bridgewater’s main man in late 2014 to falling behind several guys in 2015, and then just stagnating in 2016. He always lights up the practice fields (I remember hearing that he was the best Browns WR in training camp in 2014 – and he ended up on their practice squad) but never delivers during the regular season. He’ll fight as a fringe player on another team’s squad.
Projected Cap Room at this point: $29.5M
Free Agency
Sign RT Ricky Wagner 5 years, $35M
It’s time to fix the Vikings’ O-line. Wagner will be 27 next season and he’s been a great right tackle in 2 of the last three seasons. The Baltimore Sun reports that “Wagner figures to command a contract in the same range as Chiefs RT Mitchell Schwartz, who landed a five-year, $33 million deal last offseason”. Spotrac.com speculates he’ll make $7M a year on his next deal, so that’s where I got my numbers.
Sign (RFA) LT Ty Nsekhe 2 years $7M
Nsekhe relieved All-Pro Redskins LT Trent Williams and looked really good (especially against the Vikings) for 4 starts plus another 2 back in 2015. The Redskins probably won’t be able to afford to pay him too much as a backup, so if the Vikings can strategically him give enough money on his contract in Nsekhe’s first season, then they could win him. This plan will backfire if the Skins are willing to give him a second round tender. Nsekhe, already 31 years old, could be a solid stopgap LT as they develop a rookie behind him.
Sign HB Rex Burkhead 2 years, $4M
Burkhead has been stuck behind Giovani Bernard for quite some time, but after Bernard’s ACL tear, Burkhead proved he has a place in the NFL. The Bengal HB completely outplayed starter Jeremy Hill not just in the running game but also in the passing game. Burkhead would be a fine 3rd down back and he should be available at a cheap price tag.
Sign G Patrick Omameh 1 year, $1.5M
I know what you’re thinking – who? Omameh was a UDFA in 2013 and ended up starting 16 games in 2014 with the Bucaneers, struggling with a 67.5 PFF rating. He was cut and the Bears picked him up, starting 7 games. His PFF rating improved to 76.7 but the Bears didn’t retain them. The Jaguars picked him up in 2016 and he started 7 games, earning a 77.1 rating. Omameh could step in at RG and give the Vikings some decent play. Sirles or a rookie could also win the RG job and cause Omameh to be a backup, but he’d be a nice depth option. Either way I’ve love to see an under-the-radar signing like this one.
Sign S Rafael Bush 1 year, $1.5M
The Vikings could really use a better backup safety. Anthony Harris and Jayron Kearse embarrassed themselves after Smith was hurt. The secondary could use a vet like Bush in case Smith or Sendejo get hurt. Bush played about 50% of Detriot’s snaps last season at an average performance, so it’s possible another team could want him as a starter.
Projected Cap Space after these signings: $14M
2017 NFL Draft
Now it’s time to start wildly guessing what the Vikings will do in the draft! I’ll be using CBS Sports and Walterfootball as my sources for picking the rookies.
Pick 2-14: T Dion Dawkins, Temple
“The sources that really like Dawkins have him graded in the second round and think he has left tackle potential for the NFL.” From Charlie Campbell at Walterfootball.com. Dawkins should probably spend a season on the bench as he prepares to be the LT for 2018. Worst case scenario, Dawkins can play RT or even a guard position.
(traded pick 3-16 and pick 4-24 to move to up pick 3-2)
Pick 3-2: G Isaac Asiata, Utah
Hooray, back to back offensive linemen! Plus Isaac is the cousin of Matt Asiata, of whom I just let go… well, whatever. Asiata’s a solid guard who can run block really well. He can also play center, but his size (6’ 3” 325 lbs.) indicates he’ll be a guard. Perhaps he can be a starter in 2018.
Pick 3-23: HB Kareem Hunt, Toldeo
Hunt looked like the best running back at the Senior Bowl and he was very prolific at Toledo, running for 1,475 yards with 403 receiving yards in 2016. He’s been very solid over all 4 seasons at Toledo and he could be a really good every-down running back. The combo of Hunt, McKinnon and Burkhead should
Pick 4-15: OLB Vince Biegel, Wisconsin
The Vikings could use a linebacker to compete with the other guys for Greenway’s old position. Biegel was a solid LB at Wisconsin and he could be a contributor in 2017.
Pick 5-14: DE Garrett Sickels, Penn State
Sickels managed 6 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 2016 with Penn State. Sickels could develop into a part-time role in the future. Robison may be in his final season with the Vikings in 2017.
Pick 6-16: QB Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
With Bridgewater likely out for another season, the Vikings need competition for the backup job behind Bradford. Dobbs will face off against Heinicke in the preseason.
Pick 7-15: TE Antony Auclair, Laval
I’ve never heard of the college called Laval, but apparently Auclair has some receiving ability. “The Canadian product impressed some sources with receiving ability at the East-West Shrine. He showed some quickness and good route-running. Auclair could be a nice late-round pick who ends up developing into a contributor.” He can fill MyCole Pruitt’s old roster spot.
Alright, so that’s that. If you have any comments or questions, please post them and I’ll probably respond.
Sources Used: Spotrac.com, CBSSports.com, Walterfootball.com, and Spotrac.com.
*Note: This was written on February 13th, shortly after offensive guards Brandon Fusco and Mike Harris were cut.*
Pre-Free Agency
Releases
HB Adrian Peterson (saves $18M in cap)
This has to happen. Peterson had a great run, but his time as a Viking is up. He’s missed 28 games in his last 3 seasons and he’s past his prime. He’s also a one-dimensional running back who could still be useful in a rotation, but it’s time to move on and look to the future at the HB position. Not to mention the Vikings could really use that $18M in cap room…
DE Scott Crichton (saves about $.77M)
Crichton was placed on the IR after the final preseason game and that’s basically the only reason why he’s still here. He was a bust as a 3rd round pick. His salary is $.93M and can be easily replaced.
(they could also cut WR Jarius Wright but they’d only gain $1.5M in cap space. So I’ll pass on this.)
Projected Cap Space at this point: around $43.7M
Re-Signing
DT Toby Johnson, HB C. J. Ham, T Willie Beavers, T Rashod Hill, and G Zac Kerin to minimum deals
All of these guys are exclusive rights free agents, so they’ll be back cheap. Toby Johnson looked good in the preseason and could crack the roster again as the 4th DT. Ham was solid as well but he’ll need to take a big step forward if he wants to be a part of the backfield. Willie Beavers will need to vastly improve over the offseason or he’ll be practice squad fodder. Rashod Hill was claimed off of the Jaguars’ practice squad and played 49 really solid snaps at LT, so he’ll be in the running for a backup tackle spot. Zac Kerin is just a guy and the Vikings can do better for guard/center depth.
WR Cordarelle Patterson – 3 years, $13.5M
If Patterson is willing to accept a deal of this size, then I’d love to have him back. He’s the best kick returner in the league and he’s a weapon that can run the ball and catch screens. It’s pretty clear he’s not going to be a route-running WR and they shouldn’t pay him to be that. Hopefully Patterson will keep up his good performances even when he isn’t on his contract year. Having Norv gone might help too.
CB Terence Newman – 1 year, $4M
Newman was the best CB on this team and he was 38 years old. If he wants to play another year, then he should be received with open arms. He had his best season in 2016 according to Pro Football Focus (though he did lose about 250-300 snaps to Trae Waynes as they rotated). Waynes may step up and become a starter in 2017, but that’d just make Newman a great backup. He’s worth every penny.
WR Adam Thielen – 1st Round Tender (around $3.88M)
With Thielen having a fantastic season and nearing 1000 yards receiving, they’ll need to give him the 1st round tender. Giving him just below $4M is fine, as he deserves more than that. Perhaps they will extend him mid-season, but I’d like to see him repeat his stellar 2016 if he wants to get paid the big bucks.
G/T Jeremiah Sirles – Low Tender (around $1.78M)
I wonder if the Vikings can sneak Sirles through restricted free agency. He didn’t play very well in 9 games at RT, but he filled in very well at guard (sample size of about 178 snaps). He should be back as a reserve at the very least.
Leaving in Free Agency
LT Matt Kalil
The Vikings can’t go into 2017 with Kalil as their LT. Last year I wrote that I wanted Kalil gone, and it turns out I was right. Kalil played in just 2 games but it was clear he was playing through an injury. He underwent major hip surgery and missed the rest of the season. Even when he was healthy, he was sub-replacement level. I would really like to see him return to 2012/2013 form, but it’s not going to happen.
RT Andre Smith
This one doesn’t really warrant an explanation. He was terrible for one and a quarter seasons between the Bengals and Vikings and went down with a triceps injury. He’ll struggle to find any deals on the open market.
CB Captain Munnerlyn
This one’s a tough decision, but I think the Vikings want Mackensie Alexander to step up into the nickel corner role. Munnerlyn had an average 2016 (PFF rating of 75.5) but he’ll likely wanted to be paid higher than what the Vikings want to. I could definitely see him coming back if he doesn’t find the deal he wants in free agency.
QB Shaun Hill
I’m guessing he retires, but if not, the Vikings should move forward without Hill as the backup. He did a fine job in his spot start, but the Vikes should look for someone younger. I know they want Taylor Heinicke to step up and win the job.
OLB Chad Greenway
If he isn’t retiring, I’ll take a hard pass. I love the guy and he definitely brings some leadership to the team, but his play has been below average for some time. It shouldn’t be hard to plug in another player at the OLB position to play 40-50% of the snaps (Emmanuel Lamur or Kentrell Brothers could do the job).
TE Rhett Ellison
It was a surprise that Rhett even started the 2016 season after tearing his patellar tendon in the 2015 playoffs. He had a below average 2016 and he was part of the problem in the run blocking department. The Vikings drafted a good blocking TE in David Morgan last season, so Ellison may move on. I would be fine if they gave him a deal in the range of 2 years and $6M.
FB Zach Line
With Peterson moving on, the Vikings don’t need a fullback. Line had his best season but his play was just average. I’m not sure if OC Pat Shurmur wants a FB in his offense.
HB Matt Asiata
Here, I’ll regurgitate what I said last year about him: “He's more of a fullback who can pass block and catch passes, but he's not going to wow you. The Vikings can find those same qualities in other players, so they should move on from Asiata. He'll get a shot at cracking someone else's roster.” In 2016, his pass blocking got worse and he showed a lack of power – especially in short yardage situation. Some of that was the O-line’s fault, but Asiata is just a guy who gets what the OL blocks for him.
P Jeff Locke
He ranked 29th/30 in average punting yards and 25th/30 in net yards. For an offense that punts a lot, they need a better punter.
MLB Audie Cole & DE Justin Trattou
These two are favorites of mine, but they’re aging and the Vikings can replace these guys with younger players. They can be invited to training camp on minimum deals if Spielman doesn’t fill their voids.
T Jake Long
I really feel for this guy. He was filling in admirably at LT, playing far better than Kalil or Clemmings did, and then he tears his Achilles. He’s been dealing with injuries his whole career, so he should retire.
WR Charles Johnson – Non tender
Johnson went from Bridgewater’s main man in late 2014 to falling behind several guys in 2015, and then just stagnating in 2016. He always lights up the practice fields (I remember hearing that he was the best Browns WR in training camp in 2014 – and he ended up on their practice squad) but never delivers during the regular season. He’ll fight as a fringe player on another team’s squad.
Projected Cap Room at this point: $29.5M
Free Agency
Sign RT Ricky Wagner 5 years, $35M
It’s time to fix the Vikings’ O-line. Wagner will be 27 next season and he’s been a great right tackle in 2 of the last three seasons. The Baltimore Sun reports that “Wagner figures to command a contract in the same range as Chiefs RT Mitchell Schwartz, who landed a five-year, $33 million deal last offseason”. Spotrac.com speculates he’ll make $7M a year on his next deal, so that’s where I got my numbers.
Sign (RFA) LT Ty Nsekhe 2 years $7M
Nsekhe relieved All-Pro Redskins LT Trent Williams and looked really good (especially against the Vikings) for 4 starts plus another 2 back in 2015. The Redskins probably won’t be able to afford to pay him too much as a backup, so if the Vikings can strategically him give enough money on his contract in Nsekhe’s first season, then they could win him. This plan will backfire if the Skins are willing to give him a second round tender. Nsekhe, already 31 years old, could be a solid stopgap LT as they develop a rookie behind him.
Sign HB Rex Burkhead 2 years, $4M
Burkhead has been stuck behind Giovani Bernard for quite some time, but after Bernard’s ACL tear, Burkhead proved he has a place in the NFL. The Bengal HB completely outplayed starter Jeremy Hill not just in the running game but also in the passing game. Burkhead would be a fine 3rd down back and he should be available at a cheap price tag.
Sign G Patrick Omameh 1 year, $1.5M
I know what you’re thinking – who? Omameh was a UDFA in 2013 and ended up starting 16 games in 2014 with the Bucaneers, struggling with a 67.5 PFF rating. He was cut and the Bears picked him up, starting 7 games. His PFF rating improved to 76.7 but the Bears didn’t retain them. The Jaguars picked him up in 2016 and he started 7 games, earning a 77.1 rating. Omameh could step in at RG and give the Vikings some decent play. Sirles or a rookie could also win the RG job and cause Omameh to be a backup, but he’d be a nice depth option. Either way I’ve love to see an under-the-radar signing like this one.
Sign S Rafael Bush 1 year, $1.5M
The Vikings could really use a better backup safety. Anthony Harris and Jayron Kearse embarrassed themselves after Smith was hurt. The secondary could use a vet like Bush in case Smith or Sendejo get hurt. Bush played about 50% of Detriot’s snaps last season at an average performance, so it’s possible another team could want him as a starter.
Projected Cap Space after these signings: $14M
2017 NFL Draft
Now it’s time to start wildly guessing what the Vikings will do in the draft! I’ll be using CBS Sports and Walterfootball as my sources for picking the rookies.
Pick 2-14: T Dion Dawkins, Temple
“The sources that really like Dawkins have him graded in the second round and think he has left tackle potential for the NFL.” From Charlie Campbell at Walterfootball.com. Dawkins should probably spend a season on the bench as he prepares to be the LT for 2018. Worst case scenario, Dawkins can play RT or even a guard position.
(traded pick 3-16 and pick 4-24 to move to up pick 3-2)
Pick 3-2: G Isaac Asiata, Utah
Hooray, back to back offensive linemen! Plus Isaac is the cousin of Matt Asiata, of whom I just let go… well, whatever. Asiata’s a solid guard who can run block really well. He can also play center, but his size (6’ 3” 325 lbs.) indicates he’ll be a guard. Perhaps he can be a starter in 2018.
Pick 3-23: HB Kareem Hunt, Toldeo
Hunt looked like the best running back at the Senior Bowl and he was very prolific at Toledo, running for 1,475 yards with 403 receiving yards in 2016. He’s been very solid over all 4 seasons at Toledo and he could be a really good every-down running back. The combo of Hunt, McKinnon and Burkhead should
Pick 4-15: OLB Vince Biegel, Wisconsin
The Vikings could use a linebacker to compete with the other guys for Greenway’s old position. Biegel was a solid LB at Wisconsin and he could be a contributor in 2017.
Pick 5-14: DE Garrett Sickels, Penn State
Sickels managed 6 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in 2016 with Penn State. Sickels could develop into a part-time role in the future. Robison may be in his final season with the Vikings in 2017.
Pick 6-16: QB Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
With Bridgewater likely out for another season, the Vikings need competition for the backup job behind Bradford. Dobbs will face off against Heinicke in the preseason.
Pick 7-15: TE Antony Auclair, Laval
I’ve never heard of the college called Laval, but apparently Auclair has some receiving ability. “The Canadian product impressed some sources with receiving ability at the East-West Shrine. He showed some quickness and good route-running. Auclair could be a nice late-round pick who ends up developing into a contributor.” He can fill MyCole Pruitt’s old roster spot.
Alright, so that’s that. If you have any comments or questions, please post them and I’ll probably respond.
Sources Used: Spotrac.com, CBSSports.com, Walterfootball.com, and Spotrac.com.
... and neither is this Chris guy.