Post by Reignman on Feb 5, 2017 13:41:05 GMT -6
Alright, so here's the scoop with this little nugget. I got my hands on some detailed passing statistics for every play from 2013-2016. Unfortunately the 2016 stats aren't complete, I only through week 8, so accurate head to head isn't entirely possible. I'm also a little disappointed I couldn't get my hands on 2012 so I could include Ponder in the comparison, so I'll just have to make due with what I got for now.
So here's what I did, since 2016 is only partial. I'm only going to look at averages and percentages with this chart. I ranked all qualifying QB's from 2013-2016, in each category. Qualifying means they attempted at least 14 passes per team game. There were a total of 137 qualifying QB's, so that's what they're ranked out of in each category. League average simply means the average of the 137 qualifiers.
Most of those deep passes only involve around 10 passes for each QB, so they're almost useless. We just don't go deep all that often as you can see lol. We've been the check down kings for the past decade, minus the short Favre era.
I plan to post more data as I figure out how to use it. If we're curious about how specific QB's have done for comparison, I can add a bunch of those too. Let me know who you'd like to see. Just keep in mind I only have through week 8 of 2016. I'd like to take a look at Brady and Rodgers just to see how much better they are on deeper throws.
FYI Nick Foles went 6/10 with 4 TD's on passes that traveled 40+ yards in the air in 2013. I just though that was quite impressive lol. Tyrod Taylor also throws a high percentage of deep balls, which I never would have guessed.
Sam Bradford isn't half bad going deep either so I don't know why he doesn't do it more often. He went 8/18 with 5 TD's and only 1 INT last year with the Eagles on passes 30+ yards. Those were some of the best deep numbers in the league last year. Young Theodore is just 1/16 on passes over 40 yards, and 5/36 on passes over 30 yards in his career.
I can also use the raw data to create new categories. For example passes in the 15-30 yard range. Our how QB's do on 3rd down in the 4th quarter, or 1st down in the 1st quarter xD. Endless possibilities. So give me some ideas.
So here's what I did, since 2016 is only partial. I'm only going to look at averages and percentages with this chart. I ranked all qualifying QB's from 2013-2016, in each category. Qualifying means they attempted at least 14 passes per team game. There were a total of 137 qualifying QB's, so that's what they're ranked out of in each category. League average simply means the average of the 137 qualifiers.
league avg 2014 Teddy 2015 Teddy 2016 Sammy
completion percent 63.0 (73rd) 64.4 (44th) 65.3 (37th) 66.5 (23rd)
average per attempt 7.26 (57th) 7.26 (58th) 7.23 (62nd) 7.10 (79th)
TD percent 4.72 (56th) 3.98 (84th) 3.13 (117th) 3.94 (88th)
INT percent 2.36 (74th) 2.99 (104th) 2.01 (48th) 0.49 (4th)
QB rating 90.7 (66th) 86.9 (87th) 88.7 (74th) 98.2 (27th)
sack rate 6.20 (70th) 8.84 (123rd) 8.96 (125th) 8.56 (117th)
air to yac rate 54.3 (73rd) 50.6 (108th) 44.3 (133rd) 55.7 (54th)
past the sticks on 3rd rate 49.6 (65th) 37.0 (128th) 34.8 (132nd) 37.1 (127th)
throwing short 3rd conv rate 23.7 (76th) 29.4 (28th) 30.2 (24th) 20.5 (97th)
throwing past 3rd conv rate 50.9 (69th) 60.0 (18th) 45.7 (107th) 69.6 (3rd)
Percent of attempts that travel:
0-9 yards 51.9 (72nd) 53.0 (56th) 52.3 (68th) 58.6 (12th)
10-19 yards 22.4 (59th) 18.7 (119th) 19.5 (111th) 16.3 (133rd)
20-29 yards 7.1 (63rd) 6.2 (98th) 7.4 (55th) 5.4 (115th)
30-39 yards 3.1 (54th) 2.2 (106th) 2.5 (94th) 3.0 (64th)
40+ yards 1.9 (63rd) 0.9 (114th) 3.0 (18th) 1.0 (107th)
Comp percent of passes that travel:
0-9 yards 67.7 (75th) 69.0 (49th) 69.2 (45th) 68.9 (52nd)
10-19 yards 54.7 (61st) 62.7 (13th) 57.5 (42nd) 54.5 (66th)
20-29 yards 36.7 (82nd) 48.0 (27th) 33.3 (93rd) 72.7 (2nd)
30-39 yards 30.8 (62nd) 22.2 (94th) 18.2 (106th) 16.7 (112th)
40+ yards 25.0 (77th) 8.3 (116th) 0.0 (130th) 50.0 (27th)
QB rating for passes that travel:
0-9 yards 92.0 (65th) 89.6 (77th) 97.6 (35th) 87.3 (90th)
10-19 yards 88.0 (61st) 84.9 (80th) 90.9 (49th) 107.5 (16th)
20-29 yards 72.9 (82nd) 103.6 (34th) 41.8 (119th) 154.4 (2nd)
30-39 yards 71.0 (82nd) 62.5 (92nd) 46.4 (108th) 91.7 (53rd)
40+ yards 79.2 (77th) 39.6 (105th) 39.6 (117th) 95.8 (56th)Most of those deep passes only involve around 10 passes for each QB, so they're almost useless. We just don't go deep all that often as you can see lol. We've been the check down kings for the past decade, minus the short Favre era.
I plan to post more data as I figure out how to use it. If we're curious about how specific QB's have done for comparison, I can add a bunch of those too. Let me know who you'd like to see. Just keep in mind I only have through week 8 of 2016. I'd like to take a look at Brady and Rodgers just to see how much better they are on deeper throws.
FYI Nick Foles went 6/10 with 4 TD's on passes that traveled 40+ yards in the air in 2013. I just though that was quite impressive lol. Tyrod Taylor also throws a high percentage of deep balls, which I never would have guessed.
Sam Bradford isn't half bad going deep either so I don't know why he doesn't do it more often. He went 8/18 with 5 TD's and only 1 INT last year with the Eagles on passes 30+ yards. Those were some of the best deep numbers in the league last year. Young Theodore is just 1/16 on passes over 40 yards, and 5/36 on passes over 30 yards in his career.
I can also use the raw data to create new categories. For example passes in the 15-30 yard range. Our how QB's do on 3rd down in the 4th quarter, or 1st down in the 1st quarter xD. Endless possibilities. So give me some ideas.
... and neither is this Chris guy.