Fun With Numbers

Thanks for keeping this thread up!

How bout this stat line I stumbled across. Can you guess who it is? Hint: It wasn't a Viking xD. It was a full game. The fewest completions in a game since 1981. In fact it's the only time since 1981 a QB played an entire game and threw more INT's than completions.

YEAR CMP ATT    PCT YDS   AVG TD IN RATING
1998   1  15   6.67   4  0.27  0  2   0.0  and 3 lost fumbles
This one was also pretty bad. Most completions to both teams in a game since 1981.
YEAR CMP ATT    PCT YDS   AVG TD IN RATING
1986   4  17  23.53  42  2.47  0  4  19.6  Tom Flick
Vikings fewest completions in a game since 1981. Wildcard game vs Washington in 1992. Good time for it right lol?
YEAR CMP ATT    PCT YDS   AVG TD IN RATING
1992   6  20  30.00 113  5.65  0  2  11.0  Sean Salisbury

So nobody has a guess as to who put up the worst QB stat line since 1981? No it wasn't a RB filling in either lol.
YEAR CMP ATT    PCT YDS   AVG TD IN RATING
1998   1  15   6.67   4  0.27  0  2   0.0  and 3 lost fumbles

We have a winner! Can you imagine if your QB only completed 1 pass for an entire game? For 4 yards lol. I think it had rained in Kansas City that day, but it being in September it certainly wasn't the worst weather a football game had ever been played. On the other side, Rich Gannon was only 10/29 for 144 yards for the Chiefs so maybe the conditions weren't the most ideal for passing. Still, he had more turnovers 5, than yards passing 4. It was only Leafs 3rd career start, but he did win his first 2 starts.

I did something like this myself and posted a few results back on VJ. I took it a step further though. I did it for every passing category and then developed a little formula to show how a QB would have done statistically, had he played in a different era. Because he's right, that's the only way to compare QB's from different era's, by comparing each to how much better they did vs their own peers.

Here's how it would have turned out if Tarkenton and Manning traded era's.

Fran Tarkenton:
YEAR   G    W-L-T    CMP   ATT   PCT    YDS   AVG   TD  INT RATING
1998  16    2-9-0    226   356  63.5   2356  6.62   19   11   86.8
1999  16   2-13-1    246   444  55.4   3107  7.00   22   18   77.3
2000  16    5-9-1    254   384  66.1   2645  6.89   14   11   85.8
2001  16    9-6-1    250   382  65.4   2856  7.48   21    8   96.9
2002  16    8-8-0    274   432  63.4   3170  7.34   19    8   92.4
2003  16    5-8-1    280   439  63.7   2923  6.66   17   12   84.7
2004  16    8-8-0    303   466  65.0   3785  8.12   32   13  101.4
2005  16    8-8-0    289   449  64.3   3199  7.12   22    9   93.6
2006  16    7-9-0    328   525  62.4   3555  6.77   23    6   92.2
2007  16   10-6-0    370   550  67.4   3831  6.96   26   10   95.3
2008  15   5-10-0    390   556  70.2   3660  6.58   15   15   86.0
2009  16    8-8-0    389   580  67.0   4017  6.93   26   12   93.2
2010  16   14-2-0    313   435  72.0   3411  7.84   24    6  107.4
2011  15   10-5-0    339   522  65.0   4112  7.88   28   10   98.7
2012  16   14-2-0    459   616  74.6   4393  7.13   36    9  106.9
2013  15   11-2-1    467   643  72.7   4714  7.33   28    7  103.0
2014  10    7-3-0    294   401  73.3   2814  7.02   16   10   95.8
2015  16    8-7-1    554   774  71.6   4847  6.26   39   19   94.5

18   279  141-123-6 6025  8954  67.3  63395  7.08  427  194   94.5
18   246  124-109-6 3686  6467  57.0  47003  7.27  342  266   80.4 <---actual career
Peyton Manning:
YEAR   G    W-L-T    CMP   ATT   PCT    YDS   AVG   TD  INT RATING
1961  14   3-11-0    226   452  50.1   3167  7.01   25   42   52.5
1962  14   11-3-0    219   395  55.5   3454  8.74   26   21   84.4
1963  14    9-5-0    239   441  54.2   3851  8.73   36   20   91.6
1964  14    5-9-0    235   438  53.6   3624  8.27   27   30   73.4
1965  14    9-5-0    245   450  54.3   3456  7.68   27   25   75.8
1966  14   11-4-0    260   462  56.3   3742  8.10   28   13   91.3
1967  14   11-4-0    226   402  56.3   3717  9.25   44   14  109.0
1968  14   12-2-0    192   340  56.5   2993  8.80   27   13   95.4
1969  14   11-4-0    243   434  56.0   3610  8.32   30   12   95.7
1970  14   11-3-0    199   364  54.7   2927  8.04   23   16   83.1
1971  14   11-4-0    217   389  55.7   2834  7.29   20   17   77.5
1972  14   12-2-0    217   372  58.4   2969  7.98   23   18   84.6
1973  14    9-5-0    243   428  56.8   2914  6.81   20   19   75.0
1974  DID NOT PLAY
1975  14   11-3-0    238   402  59.1   3174  7.89   26   15   89.8
1976  14   11-3-0    248   426  58.2   3471  8.15   34   11   99.9
1977  14   11-4-0    202   373  54.2   2828  7.58   21   21   74.1
1978  10    7-2-0    123   244  50.4   1605  6.58    6   28   39.7

18   234  165-73-0  3772  6812  55.4  54336  7.98  443  335   82.7
18   266  186-79-0  6125  9380  65.3  71940  7.67  539  251   96.5 <---actual career
And head to head ..

Frans era:
YEAR   G    W-L-T    CMP   ATT   PCT    YDS   AVG   TD  INT RATING
18   246  124-109-6 3686  6467  57.0  47003  7.27  342  266   80.4 Tarkenton
18   234  165-73-0  3772  6812  55.4  54336  7.98  443  335   82.7 Manning
Peytons era:
YEAR   G    W-L-T    CMP   ATT   PCT    YDS   AVG   TD  INT RATING
18   279  141-123-6 6025  8954  67.3  63395  7.08  427  194   94.5 Tarkenton
18   266  186-79-0  6125  9380  65.3  71940  7.67  539  251   96.5 Manning
It's close, but I have to give Peyton the edge in both era's. Certainly much closer than if you compare Fran from his era to Peyton in his.

Yeah it's not scientific or anything, but it's about the only strategy that works pretty good. Take a QB and compare how well he did vs the QB's of his own era, then apply that difference to the averages of a different era. I just did that for every passing category. I already had all the data so it was just a matter of plugging in the formula. And with spreadsheets you can work all kinds of magic lol. I just made a basic template so now all I have to do is punch in a QB, the years he played, then the years I want to compare him to, and it spits out the numbers automagically. I even got it formatted so I only need to copy/paste the results straight to the forum xD.

The past year or so I've been working on a new QB rating system to replace the antiquated nonsensical system the NFL uses. I mean 158.3 is max? Dumb. And ofc to put ESPN's QBR garbage to shame lol. My rating will incorporate rushing and sacks and will be on a scale of 0-100. Although those aren't hard capped. In extreme cases it will be possible to go above 100 or below 0, but not by much. For example, with the current NFL rating system, a QB who goes 4/5 50 yards and 2 TD's will have the same perfect 158.3 rating as a QB who goes 6/6 100 yards and 3 TD's, when it's clear the latter was better. My rating will reflect those minor differences. I have a consistency bonus worked in lol. So even a guy who goes 12/20 120 yards 4 TD's, will have a slightly higher rating than a guy who goes 6/10 60 yards 2 TD's even though those stat lines are mathematically identical.