Are the Vikes built to win offensive shootouts?

One staple of a Gary Kubiak-style offense is that it limits the number of times the quarterback has to play hero. Over his 23 years as an offensive coordinator, head coach or adviser, Kubiak’s QBs have only cracked the top 10 in total pass attempts six times.

His QBs also tend to set career highs in efficiency. Cousins threw the fewest number of passes in a full season by far and posted his best quarterback rating and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt since becoming a starter in 2015. In the three games in which he threw more than 35 passes, the Vikings went 0-3 and his PFF grades for those games were 61.5, 63.4 and 66.5 (out of 100).

The 2019 Vikings were set up perfectly to play Kubiak Ball. They relied heavily on Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in the run game and the Vikings’ defense finished fifth in points allowed. Per Pro-Football Reference, the Vikings passed just 56 times and rushed 159 times when leading by more than one score. Only Baltimore ran more.

This year there is a good chance that circumstances change. The schedule appears to be more challenging and the Vikings are set to have new starters at every level on defense, several of which could be rookies or players with very little previous experience. Not to mention that Cook’s status is unclear due to his current contract holdout.

So what would it mean for Cousins if he’s forced to carry the offense more often?

Recently Pro Football Focus studied how QBs around the NFL perform when they are asked to throw more than 40 passes. The answer across the board is: Worse. My podcast pal Sage Rosenfels said recently on the Purple Insider Podcast, “the toughest thing to do in the NFL is become a drop-back passer.”

When you’re throwing 40 passes in a game, it means you’re either going back and forth with an opponent or you’re playing from behind. Under both circumstances, defenses know the pass is coming and the quarterback has to find a higher percentage of tight-window throws and mostly can’t rely on play-action.

That’s a good place to start with Cousins. Last season Kubiak ramped up his use of play-action to over 30% of total drop backs. Per PFF, with play-action he gained 9.7 yards per attempt and had a 129.2 rating. Without play-action, those numbers dropped to 7.4 per attempt and a 97.2 rating.

However, almost every QB was better with play-action. Cousins’s non play-action numbers still ranked eighth in Y/A and 11th in rating. Here’s how he’s ranked since becoming a starter in 2015 without play-action:

2018 — 23rd in yards per attempt, 13th in QB rating
2017 — 13th, 19th
2016 — 2nd, 9th
2015 — 20th, 10th

Aside from his yards per attempt in 2016, Cousins has posted mostly stable mid-pack numbers without play-action.

Of course, those numbers come in all situations. What about games in which Cousins is called upon to throw repeatedly?

In 2018 under John DeFilippo, that was the case far more often than last year. He threw more than 40 passes in seven games and went 1-5-1. Since 2015, he’s 5-17-2 in such situations.

But again — most QBs have losing records when tossing the ball 40-plus times. Here’s how his W-L record compares to every quarterback on the schedule since 2015 when they throw at least 39 passes*:

*Cousins had several games with 39 that seemed fair to include to create a big enough sample size

Cousins: 5-17-2
Rodgers: 13-16-1
Prescott: 5-9
Rivers: 7-23
Watson: 4-3
Tannehill: 1-9
Ryan: 10-18
Brees: 16-18
Bridgewater: 2-2 (including 2014)
Brady: 22-8
Stafford: 7-18-1
Foles: 1-4
Minshew: 1-2
Wilson: 5-11

So Cousins’s poor W-L record isn’t surprising in comparison when even future Hall of Famers are sub .500.

Since there is a lot baked into a win or loss, how can we determine whether the losses should be on the shoulders of the quarterback?

In 2018 we saw plenty of examples of Cousins playing poorly and getting the team behind and of him going toe-to-toe with the opposing offense in true shootout fashion.

The Vikings tied the Packers in Week 2 of 2018 but Cousins posted one of the best games of his career with a 93.5 PFF grade, 425 yards and a 118.8 rating. Two weeks later he matched with Jared Goff by throwing for 422 yards, a 117.3 rating and 84.9 grade.

But there were also closely-contested games against Chicago and New England in which he threw more than 40 times and averaged under six yards per attempt in losses and graded under 65.

The common denominator in whether Cousins is able to match up with an opposing QB who’s shredding the Vikings’ defense is the quality of the opposing defense. Of his 10 poorest games in QB rating since 2015, seven were against top-10 defenses in points against (three of those were top-five).

On the other side, his five best games with 40 or more passes came against the 26th, 5th, 28th, 22nd and 20th ranked teams in points allowed.

Here’s what we can conclude from Cousins’s past in high-volume throwing games:

— He’s mostly been a mid-pack QB when forced to throw without play-action, even during his best seasons

— Cousins’s Win-Loss record in such situations is below other great QBs but there have been many games in which he threw 39-plus times and played well but didn’t win

— Defense is very hard to project so we won’t know which teams’ defenses would be the toughest matchups in a shootout. We do know that he does not want to match throw-for-throw with Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Watson.

— His struggles in parts of 2018 when asked to throw 40-plus times were under different circumstances with fewer overall weapons (Laqon Treadwell was the No. 3 receiver) and without Kubiak calling the shots

— When the Vikings signed Cousins, part of their logic was that he’d give them a fighting chance in these types of situations. PFF’s data showed Case Keenum as being one of the poorest QBs when asked to carry an offense. Cousins is certainly an upgrade in that area.