Biggest Weakness on the roster?

Arif: For the past several years, the Vikings were an interesting group of players because a strengths/weakness evaluation of the team would conclude that either there were no weaknesses or only one (the offensive line). Despite that, they never topped anyone’s preseason power rankings.

Now, the Vikings have similar (or worse) strengths and significantly more areas of weakness. At least potentially — for now, there’s more uncertainty at these three position groups than a known “weakness.”

If we assume that draft picks play at their average expected value — i.e. that Gladney plays like a first-round rookie and Dantzler like a typical third-round rookie — then Dantzler’s likely on the bench with Holton Hill starting and Gladney’s playing reasonably well, about the same level as Hill’s rookie year. In that case, corner is probably not a weakness.

But given the slow starts we see for Mike Zimmer’s corners over the years, it seems unlikely to work out that way. I’d say that the cornerback group is weaker than before, but there’s just as good a chance that it will perform well enough as there is a chance they’ll crater. If they do the latter, that excellent safety group behind them can only do so much, while a reasonable performance from the young cornerback group will be supercharged by the safety play behind it.

I think the receiver corps is a good question, but unlike cornerback, it can be carried by one player. In this case, Adam Thielen has that potential while the group around him can play at whatever level so long as at least one of them is startable. With expected improvement from Bisi Johnson and average first-level play from Jefferson (say, like Marquise Brown or DeVante Parker) the corps might be able to stay afloat.

It’s certainly a better group than what the Vikings had for a majority of last year, but not the kind that necessarily inspires confidence. Judged against the corners, I’d probably take the receiver group because of the presence of one known Pro Bowl-quality player in Thielen and a chance that someone like Jefferson is better than Gladney because of the constraints of a Zimmer rookie corner. Throw in those safeties and the issue becomes a little more difficult to resolve — but those safeties protected Xavier Rhodes last year to little avail, so I’ll take the receivers.

Offensive line is the real issue. As the Vikings entered this offseason, it was clear that a 2020 run needed investment at one of the guard positions and improvement at center, with Garrett Bradbury’s worst games standing out as eyesores on the line. Then, the Vikings cut Josh Kline, making a need at both guard positions a priority.

While it was clear that they needed an investment at tackle for long-term sustainability, a pick there does not — by itself — drastically improve the quality at the position, given that a second-round rookie is more likely to put in a below NFL-average performance than Reiff. But it does allow Reiff to move inside to one of the guard spots, presumably upgrading it. If the Vikings are confident in Dru Samia to take over the other guard spot, they might be in line for an improvement if Bradbury improves like we expect.

Second-round rookies at tackle typically don’t pan out quite like Brian O’Neill did, however. Some, like the Packers’ Jason Spriggs in 2016, are huge liabilities as rookies. Others, like the Bills’ Dion Dawkins in 2017, are immediate game-changers. More often than not, however, they typically fare below NFL average their rookie year and below the level we saw from Reiff last season. If we slot in a below-average tackle and an above-average guard — which requires projecting an increase in the level of play from Reiff as he kicks inside — then we’re left with a better line than last year, everything else being equal. After all, that’s preferable to an average tackle and a complete liability at guard.

If we further project improvement from Bradbury, things are looking good. But I’d say we’ll likely see a dropoff at the other guard position, leaving us about where we were before and with a dropoff in play at the most important of the four positions, left tackle.

If the offensive line is about as good as last year’s, are they a bigger weakness than a completely unknown secondary? We’re grouping in that elite group of safeties in the secondary unit in this exercise, and that makes things tighter, but I’d have to say the secondary unit gives me more worries.

Chad: It’s funny that we’ve gotten to this point where the secondary is one of the biggest concerns entering the season, especially considering that people were giddy to see Rhodes leave and often criticized the secondary a year ago.

Within that position, though, let’s look for positives. Let’s envision, for purposes of painting a rosy picture, that everything works out well for the Vikings’ secondary.

I’d have to think that means Smith and Harris prove to be the league’s best safety duo, Hughes breaks out as a true No. 1 corner, Hill builds on his rookie season and avoids trouble, and Gladney quickly picks up Zimmer’s defense and thrives in the slot.

Is that what you’d consider to be the best-case scenario for the secondary? And which of those final three possibilities (Hughes as a No. 1, Hill as a solid No. 2, or Gladney with a good season in the slot) seems most likely to you?

Arif: I think that’s a reasonable “best-case scenario” for the unit. I don’t know that we can reasonably project anyone to be a Pro Bowl-quality player for 2020, although that would be a wonderful surprise — it is, after all, not unheard of for rookie corners to generate that kind of buzz. Maybe the Vikings, with Gladney, have landed on a Tre’Davious White, Jalen Ramsey, Marshon Lattimore or Denzel Ward — the type of player that can immediately place himself at the top of the standings at his position.

But I still think the optimist’s case for the secondary includes a legitimate No. 1 corner in Hughes, a high-level No. 2 corner in Hill and an average-to-above-average performance from the nickel spot with Gladney.

The most likely of the three might be Hill’s emergence as a strong No. 2 — though I’m open to any argument otherwise. Hill played very well in his limited snaps in the NFL, allowing 0.85 yards per snap over his 321 snaps in coverage over the past two years, per PFF. In 2019, that would have ranked 16th-best among corners with at least 200 snaps. Even with some regression, he would drop down to a range that is still pretty good for a second-choice cornerback. He has the raw tools — speed, length, tackling ability and instincts — and has gained technical capability as well as experience in the system. Things are probably set up for him better than anyone else.

Of course, these are all just guesses, but I think emphasizing how well Hill has played and how uncertain we are about rookies is appropriate here.

And now that we’ve discussed “best-case scenarios” for the secondary, I’m left wondering if I’ll look silly calling them the team’s biggest weakness.