Post by Funkytown on May 7, 2020 10:57:57 GMT -6
Is the Vikings' roster better now than last year? by Matthew Coller
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Full piece at the link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/coming-soon
Over the draft’s three days, the Vikings landed multiple potential starters to a mix of developing young players at several key spots that were in question. Add the fact that they have enough cap space to potentially bolster the depth of several spots and there is a case that the overall strength of the roster could be better than it was last season.
Aging versus emerging players
We often overvalue players based on what they have done in the past rather than looking at what they will do in the future. That was certainly the case looking at how the 2019 offseason was handled by the Vikings.
They could have overhauled the roster last March instead of waiting until 2020 but they chose to stick with what had gotten them to the 2017 NFC Championship and retain players like Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph, whose best days were appearing to be behind them.
From ‘17 to ‘18, Griffen’s Pro Football Focus grade dipped from 86.5 to 68.0 and his pressure rate from 11.9% to 8.4%. But the Vikings elected to bring him back with hopes that he would bounce back after dealing with a mental health issue in ‘18. In his case they turned out to be right and his PFF grade bounced back to 77.6 and pressure rate returned to 12.0%.
This time around, however, they do not appear interested in bringing him back and rolling the dice again. Instead they are playing the odds that a 32-year-old pass rusher will struggle to maintain that type of success in a high volume of snaps. From Week 11 through the end of the ‘19 season, Griffen registered just one above average graded game by PFF and a 5.8% pressure rate.
Last March we weren’t sure if Ifeadi Odenigbo was going to be a Viking. By midway through training camp, it was clear that the seventh-round pick in ‘17 who had been cut twice was ready for a legitimate role. As a situational rusher he emerged with a 74.4 PFF grade, seven sacks and 25 pressures in 273 pass rush snaps (9.1% pressure rate).
He picked up four of his seven sacks in the final five weeks of the year and concluded the season with four pressures in a starting role against the Chicago Bears in Week 17.
“Do I think he could play full time at end? Yeah,” head coach Mike Zimmer said of Odenigbo at the NFL Combine.
While it’s no sure thing, pressure rate is a fairly stable statistic, so we can reasonably project that Odenigbo can handle a greater part of the workload and produce his fair share of disruption. Considering his back story, it’s very possible he could continue improving. Going with the emerging player over the aging player gives the Vikings the potential to reach the ballpark of the production Griffen gave them last year without the cost.
But Odenigbo likely won’t have to do it alone. The Vikings could wait and see who else separates themselves among a young group of rushers including draft picks DJ Wonnum and Kenny Willekes or still add a free agent situational rusher like Vinny Curry (15.9% pressure rate in ‘19).
When it comes to the releases of Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph, going with emerging over aging isn’t just cost effective, it’s an opportunity for an upgrade.
In 2017, there were few players better at their positions than Rhodes and Joseph. The Vikings’ shutdown corner allowed just a 73.2 rating on throws into his coverage despite facing the likes of Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. But by the end of ‘18, it was clear that version wasn’t coming back and last year Rhodes gave up an 84.3% completion percentage, four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 127.8 rating against, fourth worst in the NFL and was penalized the fourth most.
In the past Zimmer has given his first-round corners time to develop but this year 31st overall pick Jeff Gladney will be thrown right into the fire.
It’s impossible to know with complete certainty whether any rookie can handle the NFL but Gladney comes from a complex TCU defense with a great deal of experience in college. He also only gave up a 41.5% completion percentage over the last two seasons.
Last year only eight rookie corners played 650 snaps or more and none of them gave up a higher completion percentage than Rhodes. Only DeAndre Baker allowed a higher QB rating against and three gave up ratings under 100 (Trayvon Mullen was the top rookie at 85.7 rating against).
Even a rocky transition for Gladney would be an improvement over what the Vikings received at the position last year. PFF estimates that mid-pack performance from the rookie over the same number of snaps would be a boost of 0.38 Wins Above Replacement over Rhodes, who was -0.11 last season.
Aging versus emerging players
We often overvalue players based on what they have done in the past rather than looking at what they will do in the future. That was certainly the case looking at how the 2019 offseason was handled by the Vikings.
They could have overhauled the roster last March instead of waiting until 2020 but they chose to stick with what had gotten them to the 2017 NFC Championship and retain players like Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph, whose best days were appearing to be behind them.
From ‘17 to ‘18, Griffen’s Pro Football Focus grade dipped from 86.5 to 68.0 and his pressure rate from 11.9% to 8.4%. But the Vikings elected to bring him back with hopes that he would bounce back after dealing with a mental health issue in ‘18. In his case they turned out to be right and his PFF grade bounced back to 77.6 and pressure rate returned to 12.0%.
This time around, however, they do not appear interested in bringing him back and rolling the dice again. Instead they are playing the odds that a 32-year-old pass rusher will struggle to maintain that type of success in a high volume of snaps. From Week 11 through the end of the ‘19 season, Griffen registered just one above average graded game by PFF and a 5.8% pressure rate.
Last March we weren’t sure if Ifeadi Odenigbo was going to be a Viking. By midway through training camp, it was clear that the seventh-round pick in ‘17 who had been cut twice was ready for a legitimate role. As a situational rusher he emerged with a 74.4 PFF grade, seven sacks and 25 pressures in 273 pass rush snaps (9.1% pressure rate).
He picked up four of his seven sacks in the final five weeks of the year and concluded the season with four pressures in a starting role against the Chicago Bears in Week 17.
“Do I think he could play full time at end? Yeah,” head coach Mike Zimmer said of Odenigbo at the NFL Combine.
While it’s no sure thing, pressure rate is a fairly stable statistic, so we can reasonably project that Odenigbo can handle a greater part of the workload and produce his fair share of disruption. Considering his back story, it’s very possible he could continue improving. Going with the emerging player over the aging player gives the Vikings the potential to reach the ballpark of the production Griffen gave them last year without the cost.
But Odenigbo likely won’t have to do it alone. The Vikings could wait and see who else separates themselves among a young group of rushers including draft picks DJ Wonnum and Kenny Willekes or still add a free agent situational rusher like Vinny Curry (15.9% pressure rate in ‘19).
When it comes to the releases of Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph, going with emerging over aging isn’t just cost effective, it’s an opportunity for an upgrade.
In 2017, there were few players better at their positions than Rhodes and Joseph. The Vikings’ shutdown corner allowed just a 73.2 rating on throws into his coverage despite facing the likes of Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. But by the end of ‘18, it was clear that version wasn’t coming back and last year Rhodes gave up an 84.3% completion percentage, four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 127.8 rating against, fourth worst in the NFL and was penalized the fourth most.
In the past Zimmer has given his first-round corners time to develop but this year 31st overall pick Jeff Gladney will be thrown right into the fire.
It’s impossible to know with complete certainty whether any rookie can handle the NFL but Gladney comes from a complex TCU defense with a great deal of experience in college. He also only gave up a 41.5% completion percentage over the last two seasons.
Last year only eight rookie corners played 650 snaps or more and none of them gave up a higher completion percentage than Rhodes. Only DeAndre Baker allowed a higher QB rating against and three gave up ratings under 100 (Trayvon Mullen was the top rookie at 85.7 rating against).
Even a rocky transition for Gladney would be an improvement over what the Vikings received at the position last year. PFF estimates that mid-pack performance from the rookie over the same number of snaps would be a boost of 0.38 Wins Above Replacement over Rhodes, who was -0.11 last season.
Replacing Stefon Diggs’s production
The Vikings are not better without Stefon Diggs. Over the past five years, the many quarterbacks throwing his way posted (including playoffs) a 70.9% completion percentage, nearly 5,000 yards, 32 touchdowns and a 108.4 quarterback rating in a season’s worth of attempts.
Last year he ranked second in yards per reception and set a career high with 1,132 yards. It will be a group effort in order to make up for the gap left by trading him to Buffalo.
That starts with Adam Thielen.
A nagging hamstring injury caused the ‘19 regular season to essentially be lost for Thielen, who finished with just 30 receptions. His previous track record, however, points to the two-time Pro Bowler being able to handle a hefty workload.
During Thielen’s absence we learned that Diggs was capable of taking on double coverage or the league’s best corners and still finding success. It’s harder to know for sure how Thielen will respond but he will have more support in 2020 than Diggs did last year.
The Vikings are not better without Stefon Diggs. Over the past five years, the many quarterbacks throwing his way posted (including playoffs) a 70.9% completion percentage, nearly 5,000 yards, 32 touchdowns and a 108.4 quarterback rating in a season’s worth of attempts.
Last year he ranked second in yards per reception and set a career high with 1,132 yards. It will be a group effort in order to make up for the gap left by trading him to Buffalo.
That starts with Adam Thielen.
A nagging hamstring injury caused the ‘19 regular season to essentially be lost for Thielen, who finished with just 30 receptions. His previous track record, however, points to the two-time Pro Bowler being able to handle a hefty workload.
During Thielen’s absence we learned that Diggs was capable of taking on double coverage or the league’s best corners and still finding success. It’s harder to know for sure how Thielen will respond but he will have more support in 2020 than Diggs did last year.
Left over questions
The Vikings came out of the draft with a little bit of cap space. Per OverTheCap, $12.2 million to be exact. Some will very likely go to a Dalvin Cook contract extension but that can be evened out by an Anthony Harris extension. So where can they spend?
With quality veteran corners like Dre Kirkpatrick and Logan Ryan on the market, it would significantly add to the security at the cornerback position rather than relying on Gladney and potentially Dantzler.
A veteran situational rusher could also be valuable as a younger player like DJ Wonnum develops.
Will they be better?
The roster has a chance to be stronger. Whether the Vikings’ record will be better is a tougher question. Last year the Vikings had the ninth easiest schedule in team history per Pro-Football Reference’s strength-of-schedule metric. This time around they match up against the very difficult NFC South, which now features Tom Brady.
The Vikings were also impressively healthy last season. Every defensive starter played at least 500 snaps and eight starters played more than 750 snaps. On the offensive side, the O-line saw every starter in for at least 70% of total plays. They will not have the infrastructure to handle injuries quite as well with so many inexperienced players.
Things like the kicking game, fumble luck and turning opportunities into turnovers on defense also went the Vikings’ way last year and have the potential to fluctuate.
But the bottom line is that an offseason that held many questions has resulted in the Vikings’ roster remaining strong enough to meet playoff expectations in 2020.
The Vikings came out of the draft with a little bit of cap space. Per OverTheCap, $12.2 million to be exact. Some will very likely go to a Dalvin Cook contract extension but that can be evened out by an Anthony Harris extension. So where can they spend?
With quality veteran corners like Dre Kirkpatrick and Logan Ryan on the market, it would significantly add to the security at the cornerback position rather than relying on Gladney and potentially Dantzler.
A veteran situational rusher could also be valuable as a younger player like DJ Wonnum develops.
Will they be better?
The roster has a chance to be stronger. Whether the Vikings’ record will be better is a tougher question. Last year the Vikings had the ninth easiest schedule in team history per Pro-Football Reference’s strength-of-schedule metric. This time around they match up against the very difficult NFC South, which now features Tom Brady.
The Vikings were also impressively healthy last season. Every defensive starter played at least 500 snaps and eight starters played more than 750 snaps. On the offensive side, the O-line saw every starter in for at least 70% of total plays. They will not have the infrastructure to handle injuries quite as well with so many inexperienced players.
Things like the kicking game, fumble luck and turning opportunities into turnovers on defense also went the Vikings’ way last year and have the potential to fluctuate.
But the bottom line is that an offseason that held many questions has resulted in the Vikings’ roster remaining strong enough to meet playoff expectations in 2020.
Full piece at the link:
purpleinsider.substack.com/p/coming-soon
... and neither is this Chris guy.
