Vikes' Defense Needs to Re-Establish Third-Down Dominance
May 14, 2020 13:56:15 GMT -6
Danchat likes this
Post by Funkytown on May 14, 2020 13:56:15 GMT -6
Another good piece by old friend, Bo Mitchell:
The Minnesota Vikings' Bend-Don’t-Break Defense Isn’t Sustainable
Link:
zonecoverage.com/2020/minnesota-vikings-news/the-minnesota-vikings-bend-dont-break-defense-isnt-sustainable/
The Minnesota Vikings' Bend-Don’t-Break Defense Isn’t Sustainable
The Vikings finished fifth in the NFL in scoring defense last season, allowing 303 points (just 18.9 per game). One wouldn’t think that kind of success would lead to a coaching change, but beneath the veneer of a top-10 scoring defense, problems were percolating. Most notably, the Vikings had become a bend-don’t-break defense in 2019 – something Zimmer must have recognized wasn’t a sustainable model. Moving forward with such a risky approach isn’t good for a head coach’s blood pressure.
Only five defenses held opponents to touchdowns on fewer than half their trips inside the 20-yard line in 2019. The Vikings were one of them.
Having the second-best red-zone defense in the NFL is nice, but it often obscures other issues.
As I noted in this space a few weeks ago, the Vikings’ once-vaunted third-down defense has eroded significantly the past two seasons. The decline in third-down effectiveness was a significant factor in Vikings’ opponents consistently winning the time of possession battle in 2019.
Last year marked the low point of the Zimmer Era in Minnesota in terms of opponents’ time of possession, as they finished 28th in the league. Getting a little more granular, opponents took an average of 2 minutes, 53 seconds off the game clock per possession and averaged 6.3 plays per possession against the Vikings last season. Both metrics are the worst since Zimmer took over in 2014.
But the Vikings were able to get away with it because the extended drives weren’t culminating in touchdowns at anything approaching a normal rate.
There’s a certain amount of good luck that goes into such bend-don’t-break results. Banking on luck isn’t a sound strategy.
To put this level of bending while not breaking into context, over the past two seasons only six teams (three each season) have allowed fewer than 2.0 points per drive while at the same time allowing opponents to hold the ball for more than 2 minutes, 50 seconds per drive. One of those teams was last year’s Vikings. And of those six teams, last year’s Vikings allowed the second-fewest points per drive (1.74).
Finishing as a top-10 scoring defense is hardly a new phenomenon for the Vikings.
- The various versions of Purple People Eaters have had a top-10 scoring defense 22 times in the 59-year history of the franchise.
- Of those 22 teams with a top-10 scoring defense, they have finished outside the top-10 in total defense (yards allowed) just five times.
- Last year, the Vikings finished 14th in total defense, giving up 341.6 yards per game – their lowest ever total defense rank in a season in which they finished as a top-10 scoring defense.
The likelihood of any defense maintaining such a level of stinginess in terms of points allowed while giving up that kind of yardage is awfully low.
Only five defenses held opponents to touchdowns on fewer than half their trips inside the 20-yard line in 2019. The Vikings were one of them.
Having the second-best red-zone defense in the NFL is nice, but it often obscures other issues.
As I noted in this space a few weeks ago, the Vikings’ once-vaunted third-down defense has eroded significantly the past two seasons. The decline in third-down effectiveness was a significant factor in Vikings’ opponents consistently winning the time of possession battle in 2019.
Last year marked the low point of the Zimmer Era in Minnesota in terms of opponents’ time of possession, as they finished 28th in the league. Getting a little more granular, opponents took an average of 2 minutes, 53 seconds off the game clock per possession and averaged 6.3 plays per possession against the Vikings last season. Both metrics are the worst since Zimmer took over in 2014.
But the Vikings were able to get away with it because the extended drives weren’t culminating in touchdowns at anything approaching a normal rate.
There’s a certain amount of good luck that goes into such bend-don’t-break results. Banking on luck isn’t a sound strategy.
To put this level of bending while not breaking into context, over the past two seasons only six teams (three each season) have allowed fewer than 2.0 points per drive while at the same time allowing opponents to hold the ball for more than 2 minutes, 50 seconds per drive. One of those teams was last year’s Vikings. And of those six teams, last year’s Vikings allowed the second-fewest points per drive (1.74).
Finishing as a top-10 scoring defense is hardly a new phenomenon for the Vikings.
- The various versions of Purple People Eaters have had a top-10 scoring defense 22 times in the 59-year history of the franchise.
- Of those 22 teams with a top-10 scoring defense, they have finished outside the top-10 in total defense (yards allowed) just five times.
- Last year, the Vikings finished 14th in total defense, giving up 341.6 yards per game – their lowest ever total defense rank in a season in which they finished as a top-10 scoring defense.
The likelihood of any defense maintaining such a level of stinginess in terms of points allowed while giving up that kind of yardage is awfully low.
zonecoverage.com/2020/minnesota-vikings-news/the-minnesota-vikings-bend-dont-break-defense-isnt-sustainable/
... and neither is this Chris guy.