[OC] Examining Vikings QB Stats in Garbage Time
I find that the simple yards/TDs/interceptions ratio to be lacking in many ways. These stats can be easily abused, and without any proper context, what are they actually telling us? QBs these days are consistently throwing for 300 to 400 yards a game, but it isn't leading to winning games. I'd like to take a dive into removing useless stats from Vikings QBs, and there's one easy way to do this: completely remove garbage time stats.
Garbage time is usually defined as as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when a team is down multiple scores (9 or more points). I also qualify garbage time as facing prevent defense, when defenders do not attempt to stop passes from being completed so that the clock can keep running. This is the root of why garbage time stats simply don’t matter – why give credit to a QB and his receivers for completing passes that the defense willingly allows, when you’re going to lose the game anyways?
I will also extend it to the last 8 minutes when down by 17 or more. 4th quarter if down by 25 or more.
I will go through every game from 2015 to 2019 and see how many passes / yards / catches are made in garbage time.
(GT = Garbage Time, NGT = non-Garbage Time)
2015 Teddy in GT: 16/27 136/0/1 (3 games)
2015 Teddy not in GT: 293/444 3241/14/8 (includes playoffs)
2015 GT Passer Rating: 57.02
2015 NGT PR: 90.49
--
2016 Bradford in GT: 51/69 467/4/0 (4 games)
2016 Bradford in non-GT: 344/483 3410/16/5
2016 GT PR: 111.2
2016 NGT PR: 97.58
--
2017 Keenum in GT: 14/24 94/0/1 (2 games, including playoffs)
2017 Keenum in non-GT: 4052/24/9 (includes playoffs)
2017 GT PR: 49.65
2017 NGT PR: 96.52
--
2018 Cousins in GT: 58/80 550/4/2 (6 games)
2018 Cousins in NGT: 367/526 3748/26/11
2018 GT PR: 97.4
2018 NGT PR: 97.68
--
2019 Cousins in GT: 20/30 165/0/0 (3 games)
2019 Cousins in NGT: 327/474 3852/28/7 (includes playoffs)
2019 GT PR: 80.56
2019 NGT PR: 106.97
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Receiving Numbers in Garbage Time
For the heck of it, I decided to tally up who was benefiting from garbage time on the receiving end. Let's see who sticks out:
(Yard % is garbage time yards divided by total yards).
** My conclusions
I found it very surprising that 3 of the 5 years we saw a decrease in garbage time play! 2015 Bridgewater, 2017 Keenum, and 2019 Cousins all had their play decrease when facing prevent defenses. I don't think this is statically significant - their sample sizes are rather small and would likely be improved if they threw as many passes as the other two. It's certainly noteworthy, but in the end I don't think it tells us very much.
Meanwhile, let's talk about 2016 Bradford and 2018 Cousins - both of them had some significant stat-stuffing in garbage time. Bradford saw a +14 boost in passer rating once the game entered garbage time, and only threw 16 TDs in non-garbage time (in 15 starts). 2018 Cousins was less so, as his passer rating was about even between GT and non-GT. His stats without garbage time are more impressive than Bradford's, sporting 10 more TDs (and played in 1 more game). I can conclude that 2016 Bradford is the only QB on this list whose numbers inflate how well he actually played, while 2018 Cousins’ GT stats were an extension of his normal play.
I didn’t find all that much for receiving in garbage time. Outside of the bizarre usage of Matt Asiata and C. J. Ham as checkdown options in garbage time, there wasn’t much to see here. Some years garbage time was given to some backup receivers (Patterson is 2016 and the whole 2019 squad). I also noticed two omissions – Dalvin Cook rarely was used in garbage time, though a fair chunk of that was because he can’t stay healthy. Even Laquon Treadwell couldn’t do anything in GT, failing to crack any of these lists with just 7 career catches in GT.
TL;DR: 2015 Bridgewater, 2017 Keenum, and 2019 Cousins played worse in GT than during real game action. 2018 Cousins was about the same in GT and padded his stats with an extra 550 yards and 4 TDs. 2016 Bradford was the only better player in GT and padded his totals with 467 yards and 4 TDs.
Thanks for reading my article - Any thoughts on my little study? Did any of the results surprise you? What are your opinions on Garbage Time?
Garbage time is usually defined as as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when a team is down multiple scores (9 or more points). I also qualify garbage time as facing prevent defense, when defenders do not attempt to stop passes from being completed so that the clock can keep running. This is the root of why garbage time stats simply don’t matter – why give credit to a QB and his receivers for completing passes that the defense willingly allows, when you’re going to lose the game anyways?
I will also extend it to the last 8 minutes when down by 17 or more. 4th quarter if down by 25 or more.
I will go through every game from 2015 to 2019 and see how many passes / yards / catches are made in garbage time.
(GT = Garbage Time, NGT = non-Garbage Time)
2015 Teddy in GT: 16/27 136/0/1 (3 games)
2015 Teddy not in GT: 293/444 3241/14/8 (includes playoffs)
2015 GT Passer Rating: 57.02
2015 NGT PR: 90.49
--
2016 Bradford in GT: 51/69 467/4/0 (4 games)
2016 Bradford in non-GT: 344/483 3410/16/5
2016 GT PR: 111.2
2016 NGT PR: 97.58
--
2017 Keenum in GT: 14/24 94/0/1 (2 games, including playoffs)
2017 Keenum in non-GT: 4052/24/9 (includes playoffs)
2017 GT PR: 49.65
2017 NGT PR: 96.52
--
2018 Cousins in GT: 58/80 550/4/2 (6 games)
2018 Cousins in NGT: 367/526 3748/26/11
2018 GT PR: 97.4
2018 NGT PR: 97.68
--
2019 Cousins in GT: 20/30 165/0/0 (3 games)
2019 Cousins in NGT: 327/474 3852/28/7 (includes playoffs)
2019 GT PR: 80.56
2019 NGT PR: 106.97
--
Receiving Numbers in Garbage Time
For the heck of it, I decided to tally up who was benefiting from garbage time on the receiving end. Let's see who sticks out:
(Yard % is garbage time yards divided by total yards).
** My conclusions
I found it very surprising that 3 of the 5 years we saw a decrease in garbage time play! 2015 Bridgewater, 2017 Keenum, and 2019 Cousins all had their play decrease when facing prevent defenses. I don't think this is statically significant - their sample sizes are rather small and would likely be improved if they threw as many passes as the other two. It's certainly noteworthy, but in the end I don't think it tells us very much.
Meanwhile, let's talk about 2016 Bradford and 2018 Cousins - both of them had some significant stat-stuffing in garbage time. Bradford saw a +14 boost in passer rating once the game entered garbage time, and only threw 16 TDs in non-garbage time (in 15 starts). 2018 Cousins was less so, as his passer rating was about even between GT and non-GT. His stats without garbage time are more impressive than Bradford's, sporting 10 more TDs (and played in 1 more game). I can conclude that 2016 Bradford is the only QB on this list whose numbers inflate how well he actually played, while 2018 Cousins’ GT stats were an extension of his normal play.
I didn’t find all that much for receiving in garbage time. Outside of the bizarre usage of Matt Asiata and C. J. Ham as checkdown options in garbage time, there wasn’t much to see here. Some years garbage time was given to some backup receivers (Patterson is 2016 and the whole 2019 squad). I also noticed two omissions – Dalvin Cook rarely was used in garbage time, though a fair chunk of that was because he can’t stay healthy. Even Laquon Treadwell couldn’t do anything in GT, failing to crack any of these lists with just 7 career catches in GT.
TL;DR: 2015 Bridgewater, 2017 Keenum, and 2019 Cousins played worse in GT than during real game action. 2018 Cousins was about the same in GT and padded his stats with an extra 550 yards and 4 TDs. 2016 Bradford was the only better player in GT and padded his totals with 467 yards and 4 TDs.
Thanks for reading my article - Any thoughts on my little study? Did any of the results surprise you? What are your opinions on Garbage Time?
