Post by Purple Pain on May 18, 2020 12:33:03 GMT -6
What the data tells us about Troy Dye, the Vikings’ latest Day Three linebacker by Arif Hasan
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Link:
theathletic.com/1818474/2020/05/18/troy-dye-vikings-linebacker-what-the-data-tells-us/
Dye was a slight steal by the Consensus Big Board — ranked 109th overall, with both forecasters and evaluators liking the pick with Dye ranked 114th and 108th by those two groups respectively. No one ranked him higher than Ben Natan of Bleeding Green Nation, who placed him 40th on his big board, writing, “Dye was an outstanding presence on the Oregon defense. Dye is a smart, physical player who isn’t afraid to fight through traffic to make plays. Dye’s toughness was crucial for Oregon and teams will love the sort of leadership dynamic he could bring to an NFL defense.”
Kyle Crabbs at the Draft Network was also a big fan of Dye. While saying Dye needs to improve his decision-making, Crabbs also noted Dye’s “tremendous” range as a tackler. “Dye has the athletic profile of an impact defender at the NFL level,” Crabbs wrote. “With his explosiveness, mobility, length and range, Dye has everything needed to be a plus starter — but he must quicken his play diagnosis and become a better defender in space to take good angles in his path to the football. Dye is currently a tick slow on seeing opportunities to attack and as a result will miss critical plays on the boundary or fail to get home when shooting gaps.”
One of the least optimistic analysts was Crabbs’ coworker at the Draft Network, Benjamin Solak, who ranked Dye 164th overall. He had some nice things to say, however, noting that Dye is “nigh on impossible to tag in space for OL when he’s at full throttle” and that he “has great lateral agility and good flexibility, which … extends his tackle radius” while also noting his coverage capability and range.
Worrisome to Solak, however, was the same thing that bothered Crabbs — read/react ability and play diagnosis. In addition to that, he notes an issue with physicality, something that runs counter to Natan’s analysis. As a result of these weaknesses, Solak notes that Dye “will get suckered in by space and run out of position. Struggles to remain disciplined against mesh point read options. Upright frame makes it difficult to break down in space and make open-field tackles, though athleticism and length help mask this issue. Will struggle to decelerate in pursuit given stride length.”
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler was a bit more on the pessimistic side as well. “Speed isn’t a question for Dye,” he concludes, “who covers a lot of ground and does a great job finding his balance in space to make one-on-one tackles. However, strength is a concern, often sticking to blocks once engaged and not anticipating enough to compensate. Overall, Dye looks like a modern-day linebacker with his length and athleticism, but he plays more like a safety with questions about his functional strength and scheme fit in the NFL, projecting as an immediate backup and special teamer.”
There are some difficulties projecting him into the NFL using our analytic tools. The biggest challenge here is that there’s a virtual pro day to contend with — Dye couldn’t work out at the combine because of his injuries. We covered many of the problems dealing with taped pro days sent to teams in our piece discussing Cameron Dantzler, but suffice to say it typically does not provide a lot of information.
In this case, Dye’s team sent out a video claiming times between 4.47 and 4.52 on two runs of the 40-yard dash on two separate stopwatches. Again, the least generous interpretation of those videos — a raw frame-by-frame would reveal times between 4.77 and 4.80, though those aren’t comparable to the hand times teams use.
We can apply the same method of projecting a 40 based off the final 20 yards of the videos — the “flying 20” that the Vikings have emphasized so often — that we used to estimate Dantzler’s “true” time.
The good news is that his flying 20 time was faster than the linebacker average among those who have performed at a pro day or combine going back over a decade, at about 1.95 seconds. That places his overall 40-yard dash time at about 4.65 seconds — higher than the hand times but within the margin of error for those running flying 20s at that speed. Given that his projected 40 time was 4.62 seconds, according to NFLDraftScout.com, we can estimate that his “true” 40-yard dash time is something like 4.63, with a fast start.
A similar method validates the high-end of his three-cone times at around 7.14 — reasonable for his position — but doesn’t match the short shuttle times listed in the video, marking him about 0.2 seconds off at 4.45.
Using those scores, estimates in themselves, we can further project Dye’s explosion scores.
That approach seems a little ad-hoc, but the Vikings constructed their own athletic model to determine Dye’s 40 time and other measures and came up with the conclusion that he was a 93rd percentile linebacker, athletically.
Kyle Crabbs at the Draft Network was also a big fan of Dye. While saying Dye needs to improve his decision-making, Crabbs also noted Dye’s “tremendous” range as a tackler. “Dye has the athletic profile of an impact defender at the NFL level,” Crabbs wrote. “With his explosiveness, mobility, length and range, Dye has everything needed to be a plus starter — but he must quicken his play diagnosis and become a better defender in space to take good angles in his path to the football. Dye is currently a tick slow on seeing opportunities to attack and as a result will miss critical plays on the boundary or fail to get home when shooting gaps.”
One of the least optimistic analysts was Crabbs’ coworker at the Draft Network, Benjamin Solak, who ranked Dye 164th overall. He had some nice things to say, however, noting that Dye is “nigh on impossible to tag in space for OL when he’s at full throttle” and that he “has great lateral agility and good flexibility, which … extends his tackle radius” while also noting his coverage capability and range.
Worrisome to Solak, however, was the same thing that bothered Crabbs — read/react ability and play diagnosis. In addition to that, he notes an issue with physicality, something that runs counter to Natan’s analysis. As a result of these weaknesses, Solak notes that Dye “will get suckered in by space and run out of position. Struggles to remain disciplined against mesh point read options. Upright frame makes it difficult to break down in space and make open-field tackles, though athleticism and length help mask this issue. Will struggle to decelerate in pursuit given stride length.”
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler was a bit more on the pessimistic side as well. “Speed isn’t a question for Dye,” he concludes, “who covers a lot of ground and does a great job finding his balance in space to make one-on-one tackles. However, strength is a concern, often sticking to blocks once engaged and not anticipating enough to compensate. Overall, Dye looks like a modern-day linebacker with his length and athleticism, but he plays more like a safety with questions about his functional strength and scheme fit in the NFL, projecting as an immediate backup and special teamer.”
There are some difficulties projecting him into the NFL using our analytic tools. The biggest challenge here is that there’s a virtual pro day to contend with — Dye couldn’t work out at the combine because of his injuries. We covered many of the problems dealing with taped pro days sent to teams in our piece discussing Cameron Dantzler, but suffice to say it typically does not provide a lot of information.
In this case, Dye’s team sent out a video claiming times between 4.47 and 4.52 on two runs of the 40-yard dash on two separate stopwatches. Again, the least generous interpretation of those videos — a raw frame-by-frame would reveal times between 4.77 and 4.80, though those aren’t comparable to the hand times teams use.
We can apply the same method of projecting a 40 based off the final 20 yards of the videos — the “flying 20” that the Vikings have emphasized so often — that we used to estimate Dantzler’s “true” time.
The good news is that his flying 20 time was faster than the linebacker average among those who have performed at a pro day or combine going back over a decade, at about 1.95 seconds. That places his overall 40-yard dash time at about 4.65 seconds — higher than the hand times but within the margin of error for those running flying 20s at that speed. Given that his projected 40 time was 4.62 seconds, according to NFLDraftScout.com, we can estimate that his “true” 40-yard dash time is something like 4.63, with a fast start.
A similar method validates the high-end of his three-cone times at around 7.14 — reasonable for his position — but doesn’t match the short shuttle times listed in the video, marking him about 0.2 seconds off at 4.45.
Using those scores, estimates in themselves, we can further project Dye’s explosion scores.
That approach seems a little ad-hoc, but the Vikings constructed their own athletic model to determine Dye’s 40 time and other measures and came up with the conclusion that he was a 93rd percentile linebacker, athletically.
...
Ultimately, the picture we can paint of Dye is that of an above-average-to-elite athlete who specialized in coverage and might be better suited to a special teams role if his missed tackles aren’t a problem.
That probably makes for a good Day Three pick at the position, and Dye — in many ways — matches a lot of what current Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson does. Wilson, like Dye, is a coverage specialist that likely struggles more against the run than Dye does. After signing his tender, he has a one-year contract with the Vikings and could be out the door after the season, and Dye could fill his role in the defense after that.
It seems unlikely he’ll be a true developmental starter unless he gets much better against the run, but that shouldn’t be an issue given the Vikings current linebacker room. If he ends up mirroring Wilson’s career, he’ll be an above-average backup with a strong special teams presence.
That probably makes for a good Day Three pick at the position, and Dye — in many ways — matches a lot of what current Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson does. Wilson, like Dye, is a coverage specialist that likely struggles more against the run than Dye does. After signing his tender, he has a one-year contract with the Vikings and could be out the door after the season, and Dye could fill his role in the defense after that.
It seems unlikely he’ll be a true developmental starter unless he gets much better against the run, but that shouldn’t be an issue given the Vikings current linebacker room. If he ends up mirroring Wilson’s career, he’ll be an above-average backup with a strong special teams presence.
Link:
theathletic.com/1818474/2020/05/18/troy-dye-vikings-linebacker-what-the-data-tells-us/
... and neither is this Chris guy.