Post by Purple Pain on May 1, 2020 16:21:29 GMT -6
Cameron Dantzler
Dantzler is a much more complicated prospect than second-round pick Ezra Cleveland or first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney. His analytical profile just isn’t very straightfoward, and in some cases disagrees with some of the scouting reports, adding complexity to the process.
Surprisingly, however, there wasn’t much disagreement in the draft community on him. He had low variance between big boards, and the evaluator and forecaster boards clustered together on this, ranking him between 74th and 78th overall, with a final consensus rank of 75th. This profiles as pretty good value for the 89th pick, which is the kind of marginal value the Vikings picked up for most of the draft to this point.
That’s not to say there was universal praise for Dantzler. NFL.com’s evaluators were harshest, with Gil Brandt ranking him 149th on his 150-player board and Daniel Jeremiah ranking him 132nd. Of those who wrote a scouting report, Tony Pauline of the Pro Football Network was lowest. Pauline argued that Dantzler’s slowness at the combine — where he ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash — was well worth noting and added that Dantzler “struggles to make plays with his back to the ball. (He’s) very slow to turn his head and locate the pass in the air. Must improve his backpedal and prefers to side shuffle down the field.”
For what it’s worth, Pauline also noted that Dantzler plays faster than that time indicates and that Dantzler did show bursts of speed when closing down on opponents. The highest ranking for Dantzler comes from Ryan McCrystal at DraftAce, who was impressed with Dantzler’s performance against Biletnikoff award-winner Ja’Marr Chase and generally loves his length and ball skills, arguing that “Dantzler’s strength is his ability to locate and make plays on the ball — it’s a skill that would likely allow him to make a smooth transition to safety if things went south on his cornerback career (a la Malcolm Jenkins). Plays with an obvious competitive streak and is eager to get physical in press coverage.”
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler ranked Dantzler about where he ended up going — 83rd. He writes, “Dantzler is quick-footed with slick hips to turn and run on command without losing balance, staying attached to receivers. He doesn’t shy from run support, but his thin frame and lack of body armor are concerns vs. NFL competition. Overall, Dantzler needs to better find the football and limit his contact downfield, but his reactive athleticism, length and competitive mentality are the baseline traits for starting press-man work in the NFL.”
Dantzler is a much more complicated prospect than second-round pick Ezra Cleveland or first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney. His analytical profile just isn’t very straightfoward, and in some cases disagrees with some of the scouting reports, adding complexity to the process.
Surprisingly, however, there wasn’t much disagreement in the draft community on him. He had low variance between big boards, and the evaluator and forecaster boards clustered together on this, ranking him between 74th and 78th overall, with a final consensus rank of 75th. This profiles as pretty good value for the 89th pick, which is the kind of marginal value the Vikings picked up for most of the draft to this point.
That’s not to say there was universal praise for Dantzler. NFL.com’s evaluators were harshest, with Gil Brandt ranking him 149th on his 150-player board and Daniel Jeremiah ranking him 132nd. Of those who wrote a scouting report, Tony Pauline of the Pro Football Network was lowest. Pauline argued that Dantzler’s slowness at the combine — where he ran a 4.64-second 40-yard dash — was well worth noting and added that Dantzler “struggles to make plays with his back to the ball. (He’s) very slow to turn his head and locate the pass in the air. Must improve his backpedal and prefers to side shuffle down the field.”
For what it’s worth, Pauline also noted that Dantzler plays faster than that time indicates and that Dantzler did show bursts of speed when closing down on opponents. The highest ranking for Dantzler comes from Ryan McCrystal at DraftAce, who was impressed with Dantzler’s performance against Biletnikoff award-winner Ja’Marr Chase and generally loves his length and ball skills, arguing that “Dantzler’s strength is his ability to locate and make plays on the ball — it’s a skill that would likely allow him to make a smooth transition to safety if things went south on his cornerback career (a la Malcolm Jenkins). Plays with an obvious competitive streak and is eager to get physical in press coverage.”
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler ranked Dantzler about where he ended up going — 83rd. He writes, “Dantzler is quick-footed with slick hips to turn and run on command without losing balance, staying attached to receivers. He doesn’t shy from run support, but his thin frame and lack of body armor are concerns vs. NFL competition. Overall, Dantzler needs to better find the football and limit his contact downfield, but his reactive athleticism, length and competitive mentality are the baseline traits for starting press-man work in the NFL.”
The athleticism question is intriguing, but we’ll cover production first given that it’s supposed to be his calling card. We covered what most of the production metrics mean in our article breaking down Gladney, but suffice to say that this mix isn’t necessarily remarkable. He’s a bit young for a drafted corner, which is good and signals room for improvement, but otherwise only substantially exceeds the draft class average in ball-hawk rate and “deserved” catch rate, which tells us that he typically finds a way to get his hands on the ball and doesn’t benefit too much from receiver drops helping his metrics.
More worrisome is the fact that he allows substantial yardage despite a reasonable rate of pass deflections on targets, which could imply two things — he’s getting targeted downfield or he’s getting targeted so often that even average completion rates would result in significant yardage given up.
The Pro Football Focus data tells us that with only 0.139 targets per snap in coverage, he actually sees slightly fewer targets in games than an average FBS cornerback — who sees 0.152 targets per snap. In full-game terms, that typically amounts to seeing 3.5 targets a game, compared to an average of 4.0.
Instead, Dantzler’s completions against went for longer than is typical for the position. His completions tallied 15.9 yards per catch instead of a typical 13.5. Those small differences can add up, and though it seems appealing that PFF claims he never gave up more than 77 yards in a game, it also stems from the fact that he didn’t have to play in coverage as often as other top corners. With only 223 coverage snaps, he falls well below C.J. Henderson’s 275, Gladney’s 387, Jeff Okudah’s 400, Trevon Diggs’ 417, Jaylon Johnson’s 438 and Kristian Fulton’s 537.
PFF ranked him as their 50th-overall prospect and their scouting report seems genuinely full of praise — particularly arguing that “WRs hate to see him lined up in press. (He) lives in WRs shoulder pads.” But they only gave him an average grade in coverage.
In their live stream covering the draft, PFF did note that he only gave up 12 yards to Chase on four targets, with only two receptions — and that’s noteworthy. It could be the case that the high level of competition he had to deal with, including a team (LSU) that fielded a first-round pick in Jefferson as well as another team (Alabama) with two first-round picks in Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy and a third team (Kentucky) with a third-round pick in Lynn Bowden, meant suppressed numbers, but it’s not as if every game had these hurdles. He played just as many games against teams with no draftable receivers.
All of that is to say that his production profile has been sold as extraordinarily good for a draftable corner but looks average. That’s not a bad thing — average players are valuable, especially as the Vikings are looking to replenish their roster — but it forces us to consider the other part of his analytical profile: the athleticism.
His athletic profile is beyond underwhelming, headlined by that poor 40-yard dash at the combine and a vertical leap of 34.5 inches, which is not ideal. Normally, that’s the end of the story — an athlete posts a poor time, drops down a round in grade and carries on either proving or disproving the relevance of that time.
But the unusual nature of this offseason — highlighted in Dantzler’s case by a canceled pro day — meant that there were some spanners to throw in the works. Agents opted to send teams “virtual” pro days where they filmed the prospects working out and let NFL teams decide to use that data how they saw fit. Of course, with the agents controlling the filming process, they could control the interaction, instead of scouts.
Agents could shoot tight shots of 40-yard dashes, shoot from unusual angles, slightly speed up the video or ask prospects to run many more times (on many more days) than they typically would at a pro day, only keeping the best time to cut up and send to NFL teams.
That doesn’t mean all or most agents do that, but the possibility is there and NFL teams have reason to be wary. In fact, Brugler said that teams aren’t changing their thinking because of these videos.
Nevertheless, it’s worth pointing out that Dantzler’s virtual pro day was sent out to teams — and reporters — containing a video of the prospect purportedly running a 4.38 40-yard dash.
More worrisome is the fact that he allows substantial yardage despite a reasonable rate of pass deflections on targets, which could imply two things — he’s getting targeted downfield or he’s getting targeted so often that even average completion rates would result in significant yardage given up.
The Pro Football Focus data tells us that with only 0.139 targets per snap in coverage, he actually sees slightly fewer targets in games than an average FBS cornerback — who sees 0.152 targets per snap. In full-game terms, that typically amounts to seeing 3.5 targets a game, compared to an average of 4.0.
Instead, Dantzler’s completions against went for longer than is typical for the position. His completions tallied 15.9 yards per catch instead of a typical 13.5. Those small differences can add up, and though it seems appealing that PFF claims he never gave up more than 77 yards in a game, it also stems from the fact that he didn’t have to play in coverage as often as other top corners. With only 223 coverage snaps, he falls well below C.J. Henderson’s 275, Gladney’s 387, Jeff Okudah’s 400, Trevon Diggs’ 417, Jaylon Johnson’s 438 and Kristian Fulton’s 537.
PFF ranked him as their 50th-overall prospect and their scouting report seems genuinely full of praise — particularly arguing that “WRs hate to see him lined up in press. (He) lives in WRs shoulder pads.” But they only gave him an average grade in coverage.
In their live stream covering the draft, PFF did note that he only gave up 12 yards to Chase on four targets, with only two receptions — and that’s noteworthy. It could be the case that the high level of competition he had to deal with, including a team (LSU) that fielded a first-round pick in Jefferson as well as another team (Alabama) with two first-round picks in Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy and a third team (Kentucky) with a third-round pick in Lynn Bowden, meant suppressed numbers, but it’s not as if every game had these hurdles. He played just as many games against teams with no draftable receivers.
All of that is to say that his production profile has been sold as extraordinarily good for a draftable corner but looks average. That’s not a bad thing — average players are valuable, especially as the Vikings are looking to replenish their roster — but it forces us to consider the other part of his analytical profile: the athleticism.
His athletic profile is beyond underwhelming, headlined by that poor 40-yard dash at the combine and a vertical leap of 34.5 inches, which is not ideal. Normally, that’s the end of the story — an athlete posts a poor time, drops down a round in grade and carries on either proving or disproving the relevance of that time.
But the unusual nature of this offseason — highlighted in Dantzler’s case by a canceled pro day — meant that there were some spanners to throw in the works. Agents opted to send teams “virtual” pro days where they filmed the prospects working out and let NFL teams decide to use that data how they saw fit. Of course, with the agents controlling the filming process, they could control the interaction, instead of scouts.
Agents could shoot tight shots of 40-yard dashes, shoot from unusual angles, slightly speed up the video or ask prospects to run many more times (on many more days) than they typically would at a pro day, only keeping the best time to cut up and send to NFL teams.
That doesn’t mean all or most agents do that, but the possibility is there and NFL teams have reason to be wary. In fact, Brugler said that teams aren’t changing their thinking because of these videos.
Nevertheless, it’s worth pointing out that Dantzler’s virtual pro day was sent out to teams — and reporters — containing a video of the prospect purportedly running a 4.38 40-yard dash.
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But to deepen the mystery, Dantzler also has a track background. An accomplished long jumper that won a state title in Louisiana for the long jump in his junior year of high school, he was also accomplished enough to participate in the 4×200 relay for his high school at the state meet. He isn’t a stranger to track starts.
Forced to guess, I’d estimate he ran faster on the video than he did at the combine and his video splits point in that direction. Taking the video and only looking at the final 20 seconds, he runs a 1.90-second flying 20 — using the same frame-by-frame system that marked him as a 4.63 on his own pro day video. That points to a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, which matches the offseason estimates of his speed. His bad start probably does not translate as much as his top-end speed does, so if we took it on face value that the technical nature of the start impacted him in a way that wouldn’t affect his on-field play, we can estimate a friendly time.
This ends up being a very bizarre story for Dantzler, one that interacts with the unique timing system the combine uses and exacerbated by the fly-by-night offseason that teams and players had to cobble together, but there’s another issue to contend with: Dantzler’s weight.
Nicknamed “The Needle” in high school because he was incredibly skinny but hit hard, Dantzler showed up to campus weighing about 165 pounds. Austin Gayle of PFF mentioned a conversation during their draft live stream that he had with Mississippi State staff about how adding weight was a constant struggle. At the combine, when he weighed in at 188 pounds, he had the highest body fat percentage of the top corners, with at least one team taking him off their board because of concerns about his physical makeup.
A host of analysts find Dantzler’s tape to be genuinely impressive. Normally when scouts breaking down film are at odds with data analysis, the answer is in projectable traits — things like footwork, technique, awareness and field intelligence. A player who gives up a 35-yard touchdown might have been unfairly interfered with or the victim of an uncommonly well-placed pass, while a bad 40-yard dash could just be an isolated incident.
But in the case of Dantzler, many of his strongest proponents point directly to his production, which is fairly middling. He plays press well, but there’s not much discussion about whether he can do that in the NFL at 180 pounds.
He’s a confusing prospect. And maybe that’s still exciting.
Forced to guess, I’d estimate he ran faster on the video than he did at the combine and his video splits point in that direction. Taking the video and only looking at the final 20 seconds, he runs a 1.90-second flying 20 — using the same frame-by-frame system that marked him as a 4.63 on his own pro day video. That points to a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, which matches the offseason estimates of his speed. His bad start probably does not translate as much as his top-end speed does, so if we took it on face value that the technical nature of the start impacted him in a way that wouldn’t affect his on-field play, we can estimate a friendly time.
This ends up being a very bizarre story for Dantzler, one that interacts with the unique timing system the combine uses and exacerbated by the fly-by-night offseason that teams and players had to cobble together, but there’s another issue to contend with: Dantzler’s weight.
Nicknamed “The Needle” in high school because he was incredibly skinny but hit hard, Dantzler showed up to campus weighing about 165 pounds. Austin Gayle of PFF mentioned a conversation during their draft live stream that he had with Mississippi State staff about how adding weight was a constant struggle. At the combine, when he weighed in at 188 pounds, he had the highest body fat percentage of the top corners, with at least one team taking him off their board because of concerns about his physical makeup.
A host of analysts find Dantzler’s tape to be genuinely impressive. Normally when scouts breaking down film are at odds with data analysis, the answer is in projectable traits — things like footwork, technique, awareness and field intelligence. A player who gives up a 35-yard touchdown might have been unfairly interfered with or the victim of an uncommonly well-placed pass, while a bad 40-yard dash could just be an isolated incident.
But in the case of Dantzler, many of his strongest proponents point directly to his production, which is fairly middling. He plays press well, but there’s not much discussion about whether he can do that in the NFL at 180 pounds.
He’s a confusing prospect. And maybe that’s still exciting.
... and neither is this Chris guy.