Round 1, Pick #22 - WR Justin Jefferson

One of the questions surrounding Jefferson as he enters the NFL is his ability to play on the outside. He played the vast majority of his snaps in the slot, and that may limit his role initially in the NFL as he transitions to a higher level of competition. Jefferson may not be ready to play outside immediately, but on tape he does show one skill that will be critical to his chances of playing on the outside: beating press.

While Jefferson did not play outside, he did have a number of snaps where he was on the line of scrimmage as part of a bunch formation. In these situations, he sometimes dealt with contact from the defender. He has shown a shoulder reduction to get past the defender, as well as work with his hands to swipe away the defenders hands. He uses footwork to get the defender turned the wrong direction against soft press. There is still more to develop here, including a swim move to beat press, but Jefferson shows good potential in this regard. He should be able to hold his own and not get stuck at the LoS against physical defenders.



Hands

Justin Jefferson had an absurd 92.3% contested catch rate in 2019, per PFF. Watching the tape, it is clear that Jefferson did not just get lucky in making those catches. He consistently shows good technique that allowed him to win contested catches.

Jefferson extends his hands away from his frame to catch the ball. This is key as it allows him leeway. As can be seen in the first play below, he doesn’t control the ball initially, but because he slowed it down with his hands, and was able to bring it in. Extending his hands outside of his frame also allows him to bring the ball in and shield it with his body through contact in contested scenarios. He has strong hands to pluck the ball from the air and can track the ball well, even outside of his frame. He makes tough plays over the middle.

Summary

Justin Jefferson is a polished route runner who effectively tells a story and uses good technique to get separation. He primarily ran routes out of the slot and will have a transition if asked to play outside at the NFL level, but shows the ability to beat press from an inside alignment which bodes well for his chances of succeeding outside. He shows excellent hands technique and consistently shields the ball with his body through contact, ending up with a very high contested catch rate. He tracks the ball well and makes difficult catches outside of his frame. Jefferson is an above-average athlete for the NFL and this shows in his ability to create vertical separation and run after the catch where he shows the burst to defeat defenders’ angles, the vision to find space and convert first downs, and the elusiveness to win in the open field. Jefferson finishes runs after the catch and displays he is a competitively tough player with the ball in his hands, while going up for catches and absorbing contact, and while blocking. He shows an effective punch while blocking, frames and pushes back defenders well. He is inconsistent as a cut blocker. Throughout his game, Jefferson demonstrates a high level of football intelligence and works with his QB to extend plays.

Vikings Fit

Jefferson is an interesting addition to the Vikings because he profiles very similarly to a player they already have on the roster — Adam Thielen. Both players are roughly the same size, are good route runners, and great at catching balls outside of their frame and contested catches. Jefferson probably adds a bit more after the catch than Thielen does at this point.

Obviously, Jefferson has not played a snap in the NFL, so it’s not a sure thing that he will reach Adam Thielen’s level. However, it does create an interesting dilemma for the Vikings because Jefferson and Thielen are both players who can be used most effectively in the slot because they are given a two-way go in that scenario and can use their suddenness and route-running ability to its full extent. You could also play them at Z. Thielen is a very versatile player, and can beat press at the line of scrimmage, but playing him at X is not his optimal role. I believe Jefferson has the potential to play on the line of scrimmage and beat press as well, but there’s not really proof of that in college and therefore I wouldn’t start him in that role either. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings address this with their current roster, and the answer may to play Thielen there, which could decrease his impact. The only other real option is Tajae Sharpe because Bisi Johnson is also in that Z/Slot mold.

It should be noted that Jefferson did play as an outside receiver often prior to 2019. I don’t want to suggest that I don’t think he can play there, but I think optimally early on in his career he should be used on the inside or off the line of scrimmage to ease his transition to the NFL level. This would create a conflict with Thielen.

Even though Jefferson shares the same optimal role as Thielen, that doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable to the team. Like having Stefon Diggs on the roster, who was also a similar player to Thielen (but an even better route runner, better against press, and a better deep threat), the Vikings can use both players effectively because their skill sets don’t pigeonhole them into one specific role.

In losing Diggs, the Vikings lost a player who primarily was asked to attack one-on-one matchups deep on the outside. Jefferson will not replace that role, but he will be able to do a number of other things to contribute early on, particularly over the middle and after the catch. Thielen may be able to take over some of the Diggs role, but the team will not be as explosive vertically in 2020. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; they can win in other ways.

Vikings fans may be scarred by memories of past first round WRs. Jefferson is not Troy Williamson. He shows great hands throughout his tape. Jefferson is not Cordarrelle Patterson. He shows refined route running technique and the ability to consistently create separation. Jefferson is not Laquon Treadwell. He shows more than adequate, even very good athletic ability on the football field and was able to separation and make plays after the catch against top competition.