2nd round pick WR

slapnut19
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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 7:20:12 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by slapnut19 on Apr 20, 2020 7:20:12 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 7:07:51 GMT -6 kyvikesfan59 said:

Here's some data that supports the notion that WRs taken in round 2 produce far greater than round 1 receivers. Per Peter King via FMIA:

Serious question: Why would you take a receiver high in this draft when the depth is so good, and when recent history argues vehemently against the first-round wideout?

This is neither foolproof nor conclusive, but GMs who do not pay attention to history might be condemned to repeat it. Could happen in this week’s draft, when three red-hot receivers—CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs—will tempt general managers and coaches to pick them in the top 20 of the first round.

In the past four drafts, teams have picked 11 wide receivers in the first round and 19 in the second round. The production of the second-round picks, clearly and without ambiguity, has been superior to the first-rounders. I totaled the 30 combined seasons of the first-round receivers and plotted the average season, and then did the same with the 40 combined seasons of second-round wideouts. The numbers:

Average season of 1st-round WRs, 2016-19: 32.8 receptions, 450.1 yards, 13.7 yards per catch
Average season of 2nd-round WRs, 2016-19: 52.8 receptions, 681.8 yards, 12.9 yards per catch

why are we looking at only the past 4 years? Seems like 10 might be a better sampling

Mondry
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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 8:52:41 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Mondry on Apr 20, 2020 8:52:41 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 7:20:12 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

Apr 20, 2020 7:07:51 GMT -6 kyvikesfan59 said:

Here's some data that supports the notion that WRs taken in round 2 produce far greater than round 1 receivers. Per Peter King via FMIA:

Serious question: Why would you take a receiver high in this draft when the depth is so good, and when recent history argues vehemently against the first-round wideout?

This is neither foolproof nor conclusive, but GMs who do not pay attention to history might be condemned to repeat it. Could happen in this week’s draft, when three red-hot receivers—CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs—will tempt general managers and coaches to pick them in the top 20 of the first round.

In the past four drafts, teams have picked 11 wide receivers in the first round and 19 in the second round. The production of the second-round picks, clearly and without ambiguity, has been superior to the first-rounders. I totaled the 30 combined seasons of the first-round receivers and plotted the average season, and then did the same with the 40 combined seasons of second-round wideouts. The numbers:

Average season of 1st-round WRs, 2016-19: 32.8 receptions, 450.1 yards, 13.7 yards per catch
Average season of 2nd-round WRs, 2016-19: 52.8 receptions, 681.8 yards, 12.9 yards per catch

why are we looking at only the past 4 years? Seems like 10 might be a better sampling

Because those last 4 were pretty weak wr classes and work best for the argument lol. Something about cherry picking data yadda yadda. 🤔

Last Edit: Apr 20, 2020 8:56:27 GMT -6 by Mondry

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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 9:12:01 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2020 9:12:01 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 8:52:41 GMT -6 Mondry said:

Apr 20, 2020 7:20:12 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

why are we looking at only the past 4 years? Seems like 10 might be a better sampling

Because those last 4 were pretty weak wr classes and work best for the argument lol. Something about cherry picking data yadda yadda. 🤔

Or it's just a lot of work to do and King didn't have time for it.

It really shouldn't be that shocking....WRs get overdrafted for the same reason players in the NBA get overdrafted. People look past their poor shooting, inability to run an offense, inability to play defense, etc. and get totally hung up on wingspan or vertical. In the NFL it's 40 times and cone drills.

Dudes who are just efficient badasses at route running, separation, run blocking, and other nuances of being a great WR get bypassed.

slapnut19
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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6 via mobile Mondry likes this

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Post by slapnut19 on Apr 20, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6

Every year and every player is different. Passing on a wr in rd1 simply because in some years it hasn't worked is lazy front office work if you ask me. I'm not saying we need to take one but i also don't like the idea of passing over a higher rated player just because the Bengals overdrafted John Ross a few years back.

Mondry
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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 10:36:41 GMT -6

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Post by Mondry on Apr 20, 2020 10:36:41 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 9:12:01 GMT -6 @theleviathan said:

Apr 20, 2020 8:52:41 GMT -6 Mondry said:

Because those last 4 were pretty weak wr classes and work best for the argument lol. Something about cherry picking data yadda yadda. 🤔

Or it's just a lot of work to do and King didn't have time for it.

It really shouldn't be that shocking....WRs get overdrafted for the same reason players in the NBA get overdrafted. People look past their poor shooting, inability to run an offense, inability to play defense, etc. and get totally hung up on wingspan or vertical. In the NFL it's 40 times and cone drills.

Dudes who are just efficient badasses at route running, separation, run blocking, and other nuances of being a great WR get bypassed.

I know we're on opposite sides of this one but I actually don't disagree with anything you just said. Honestly, most years, we're probably best friends and I'd be repeating a lot of the same things you've been saying. It's just for this class specifically, and having scouted the position for the last 4 years, I see at least 4 of those efficient, badass route runners, who can get separation, run block, and all the other nuances of being a great WR in Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, and Ruggs. Pittman is really the only one I see in the second tier, though Mims is close, Mims just has a wider range of outcomes. The problem is, those first 4 guys are also elite talents so you won't get them outside of the first round. It's one of those scenarios where the actually good WR's (and by good I mean the dudes who are efficient badasses at route running, separation, run blocking, etc) just happen to be the guys who typically get overdrafted as well.

On the contrary, the guys who might be available later like Jalen Reagor, he's super fast but he's raw, runs poor routes, one of the worst drop %'s in the class, etc. Chase Claypool is another guy who I like but absolutely doesn't fit the "efficient bad ass" description you had from above. Brandon Aiyuk had one good year and still has a lot to learn, he's not a polished, efficient bad ass either. K.J. Hamler? Nope. This is what scares me if we wait, again I like this group of guys, you've seen my WR thread, but they're far less of a sure thing and are more about upside / ceiling.

The four guys I like that should be available later that would fit that description would be Devin Duvernay, Quintez Cephus, VAN Jefferson, and Tyler Johnson and I know you've advocated for Duvernay as well so we're already a bit on the same page there and I'd be willing to admit that one of these four guys might be in the "optimal" equation of how to spend our draft picks when it's all said and done, considering value and expectation. The problem with this tier is that yes they're the efficient bad asses we look for, but their ceiling isn't as high. Tyler Johnson and Van Jefferson specifically are never going to be #1 WR's, it's just not in their cards, but if you're happy coming away from this legendary WR class with a Mohammad Sanu type for cheap then that's fine.

Personally, given that we just lost Diggs, Thielen's getting older and isn't a top tier WR1 anyway, and I don't have much hope for anyone currently on the roster outside of Irv Smith, I'm looking for someone who's an efficient bad ass but still has upside to be a #1 WR and that list is Jeudy, Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ruggs, and Pittman in my mind. After that you're looking at guys who are efficient bad asses but don't have the ceiling or guys who have the ceiling but aren't efficient bad asses (at least not yet) with Mims being the closest with both. (upside and isn't too far from being an efficient bad ass)

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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 10:47:44 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2020 10:47:44 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

Every year and every player is different. Passing on a wr in rd1 simply because in some years it hasn't worked is lazy front office work if you ask me. I'm not saying we need to take one but i also don't like the idea of passing over a higher rated player just because the Bengals overdrafted John Ross a few years back.

Teams overdraft WRs constantly. And overinvest in running backs. Not just John Ross, the league is littered with flashy combine guys that couldn't run a route to save their life. We don't even have to go far to find several in the Vikings' background.

I'm normally an advocate for BPA. But I'm an even bigger advocate in following statistics about the best ways to maximize your roster and your assets. If some receiver falls in our lap....alright. Fine. I won't love it, but BPA is fine.

What some of you people are asking for is to give up extra assets to go up and get a dicey position that, as a group, is super deep. Nothing about that makes sense to me. Nothing.

Last Edit: Apr 20, 2020 10:49:43 GMT -6 by Deleted

slapnut19
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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 11:40:49 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by slapnut19 on Apr 20, 2020 11:40:49 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 10:47:44 GMT -6 @theleviathan said:

Apr 20, 2020 10:06:14 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

Every year and every player is different. Passing on a wr in rd1 simply because in some years it hasn't worked is lazy front office work if you ask me. I'm not saying we need to take one but i also don't like the idea of passing over a higher rated player just because the Bengals overdrafted John Ross a few years back.

Teams overdraft WRs constantly. And overinvest in running backs. Not just John Ross, the league is littered with flashy combine guys that couldn't run a route to save their life. We don't even have to go far to find several in the Vikings' background.

I'm normally an advocate for BPA. But I'm an even bigger advocate in following statistics about the best ways to maximize your roster and your assets. If some receiver falls in our lap....alright. Fine. I won't love it, but BPA is fine.

What some of you people are asking for is to give up extra assets to go up and get a dicey position that, as a group, is super deep. Nothing about that makes sense to me. Nothing.

not saying you are wrong but if we followed statistics too closely we probably pass on peterson and moss in those drafts

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2nd round pick WR Apr 20, 2020 11:49:35 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2020 11:49:35 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2020 11:40:49 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

Apr 20, 2020 10:47:44 GMT -6 @theleviathan said:

Teams overdraft WRs constantly. And overinvest in running backs. Not just John Ross, the league is littered with flashy combine guys that couldn't run a route to save their life. We don't even have to go far to find several in the Vikings' background.

I'm normally an advocate for BPA. But I'm an even bigger advocate in following statistics about the best ways to maximize your roster and your assets. If some receiver falls in our lap....alright. Fine. I won't love it, but BPA is fine.

What some of you people are asking for is to give up extra assets to go up and get a dicey position that, as a group, is super deep. Nothing about that makes sense to me. Nothing.

not saying you are wrong but if we followed statistics too closely we probably pass on peterson and moss in those drafts

Moss would be the equivalent of Lamb falling to 22. If that happened, I wouldn't complain about taking him. I wouldn't be as in love with it as others, but I'd be fine with it.

Peterson was a generation ago. It made more sense than to invest in backs. I know it isn't ancient history, but a lot has changed since then. As amazing as Barkley and McAffery are....I still wouldn't want the Vikings to be that team.

Purple Pain
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2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 11:23:16 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Apr 22, 2020 11:23:16 GMT -6

Though the Vikings signed Tajae Sharpe to a one-year deal in free agency, they could turn to a draft that’s rich in receiver depth to help replace Diggs and fortify their position group behind Adam Thielen.

In the Vikings’ internal draft meetings, Spielman said, their coaches cited “significant types of” receivers who could emerge from the fourth or fifth round of the draft, much as Diggs did in leading the team with 720 receiving yards after the Vikings selected him 146th overall out of Maryland in 2015.

Since Spielman became Vikings GM in 2012, the team has only selected two receivers before the fourth round: It traded up to select Cordarrelle Patterson 29th overall in 2013 after dealing Percy Harvin to Seattle, and picked Laquon Treadwell 23rd overall in 2016.

While Patterson turned into an All-Pro kick returner, neither he nor Treadwell received a long-term deal beyond their rookie contracts with the team. This time around, though, the depth at receiver in this draft might enable Spielman to improve his receiver group without spending a high pick.

“I would say there’s all kinds of flavor — there’s speed guys, speed guys with return ability, bigger guys that are excellent route runners,” Spielman said. “I think you’ll see there’s a lot of teams that kind of go toward what their offensive scheme is, and what fits them.

“I know a lot of the discussions we’ve had on these receivers is, ‘How are they going to fit in our offense?’ We have a pretty good sense of the type of receiver that helps the quarterback rise and what’s important on those traits. There are a lot of good options, and like I said, I don’t think only in the first round … you can get a lot of good receivers throughout this entire draft.”

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,661 Likes: 31,587 Fan Since: 1998	2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 18:05:48 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Apr 22, 2020 18:05:48 GMT -6

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2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 18:10:34 GMT -6 via Tapatalk

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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2020 18:10:34 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2020 18:05:48 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

I'm not surprised. I don't think this is a smokescreen. We desperately need a receiver with top end speed to take the top off the defense.....

With that said, a big body WR is just as needed.... don't have one of those either...... although, they could choose to line Irv Smith out wide at times to fill that role.....

Also, if you recall.... it was reported that Fuller (deep threat WR coming out of college) was Rick's top choice the year he came out.... if that report was true, then it wouldn't be first time Rick targeted a deep threat WR in 1st round..... mentioning it since it's relevant here....

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2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 18:16:41 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by IAVike on Apr 22, 2020 18:16:41 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2020 18:10:34 GMT -6 BosViking said:

Apr 22, 2020 18:05:48 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

I'm not surprised. I don't think this is a smokescreen. We desperately need a receiver with top end speed to take the top off the defense.....

With that said, a big body WR is just as needed.... don't have one of those either...... although, they could choose to line Irv Smith out wide at times to fill that role.....

Also, if you recall.... it was reported that Fuller (deep threat WR coming out of college) was Rick's top choice the year he came out.... if that report was true, then it wouldn't be first time Rick targeted a deep threat WR in 1st round..... mentioning it since it's relevant here....

Might mean trade up to 13 with SF for Ruggs. Not saying I like that but most plausible if this is true. SF needs picks

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2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 18:19:49 GMT -6 via Tapatalk

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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2020 18:19:49 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2020 18:16:41 GMT -6 IAVike said:

Apr 22, 2020 18:10:34 GMT -6 BosViking said:

I'm not surprised. I don't think this is a smokescreen. We desperately need a receiver with top end speed to take the top off the defense.....

With that said, a big body WR is just as needed.... don't have one of those either...... although, they could choose to line Irv Smith out wide at times to fill that role.....

Also, if you recall.... it was reported that Fuller (deep threat WR coming out of college) was Rick's top choice the year he came out.... if that report was true, then it wouldn't be first time Rick targeted a deep threat WR in 1st round..... mentioning it since it's relevant here....

Might mean trade up to 13 with SF for Ruggs. Not saying I like that but most plausible if this is true. SF needs picks

Thats what I was thinking too.... I hope not
....... btw I have a feeling there will be a bidding war for the shopped #13 pick... I imagine they will end up with a great deal to trade back from 13

IAVike
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2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 18:21:27 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by IAVike on Apr 22, 2020 18:21:27 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2020 18:19:49 GMT -6 BosViking said:

Apr 22, 2020 18:16:41 GMT -6 IAVike said:

Might mean trade up to 13 with SF for Ruggs. Not saying I like that but most plausible if this is true. SF needs picks

Thats what I was thinking too.... I hope not
....... btw I have a feeling there will be a bidding war for the shopped #13 pick... I imagine they will end up with a great deal to trade back from 13

If Lamb and Juedy are gone...that pick will be gold for SF

AlaskanViking Living Legend Posts: 27,486 Likes: 284 Fan Since: '98	2nd round pick WR Apr 22, 2020 21:53:52 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by AlaskanViking on Apr 22, 2020 21:53:52 GMT -6 Apr 22, 2020 18:05:48 GMT -6 Funkytown said: I could see Reagor or Shenault Jr. (if medical checks out) if we reach for a WR in the first round. Really not a fan of Mims.