Post by Purple Pain on Mar 21, 2020 1:06:09 GMT -6
The Stefon Diggs trade: Vikings take a big swing, now can they make it count? by Arif Hasan
Link: theathletic.com/1680825/2020/03/17/stefon-diggs-trade-analysis-vikings-take-a-big-swing-now-can-they-make-it-count/
The Vikings ranked 30th in total passing attempts in 2019. When accounting for the number of receiving routes Diggs actually ran, it turns out he was one of the two most productive receivers in the NFL, and nearly top 10 after penalizing his numbers for issues with fumbles and turnovers — an issue that likely won’t crop up too many times again given his career history.
It’s not just the numbers that favor him, either. Film analysis reveals that he’s a high-level route-runner whose skills appear time and again when called upon.
Over the past two years when Cousins threw to Diggs — including the playoffs — he generated 9.31 adjusted yards per attempt, which would have been the highest mark in 2019 of any passer with over 300 passing attempts. When throwing to any other target, he averaged 7.45 adjusted yards per attempt, good for 11th in the NFL in 2019.
While high-level receivers can regularly generate those kinds of splits, even with great quarterbacks, it really drives home the point that Diggs drove the offense, especially when Adam Thielen was injured for much of 2019.
In that light, could the Vikings conceivably come out ahead in this trade?
In a vacuum, certainly. I’ve argued before that previous high-end wide receiver deals tell us Diggs is worth a late first-round pick and a third-round pick. Using modern trade charts, the Vikings traded for much more than that, essentially earning the equivalent of the 11th overall pick.
Those analytic-derived charts are famously aggressive, however, in valuing later picks much more than NFL teams do. Using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart — one that was developed before the modern CBA with rookie wage scales, fifth-year options and more years of player acquisitions to evaluate — the Vikings functionally earned the 20th overall pick.
However you view the charts, the Vikings have arrived at a point where they now have 13 draft picks this year and an extra pick next year, with five of their selections this year falling in the first 105 picks.
The Vikings entered this offseason already needing a wide receiver to fill out their depth chart so they, in effect, amplified a weakness in trading Diggs. The issue for Minnesota is that they got more than value for trade in the long run but might have hurt their prospects to win in 2020, something they’ve indicated they’re gunning for with the contract extension they handed Cousins.
Diggs does quite a bit. As an excellent route-runner, high-level contested-catch receiver and persistent red zone threat. Replacing that will be difficult, even with a pair of first-round picks. That said, an excellent receiver class gives them an opportunity to limit their losses in this area.
The key for the Vikings is not whether they can replace Stefon Diggs, but rather whether or not the sum total of their traded picks can provide more net value than Diggs provides by himself — in addition to what they gain from the cap relief of trading him. If they get a receiver that can replicate 80 percent of what Diggs does and add a starting-quality pass-rushing defensive tackle they otherwise would not have had, they might come out ahead.
The Vikings now have six picks in the first four rounds of next month’s draft, and they could potentially put together a trade with the day three picks they earned from the Bills and make it seven picks in the first four rounds — all of them with the potential to start or play heavy snaps.
What might that yield?
It’s not just the numbers that favor him, either. Film analysis reveals that he’s a high-level route-runner whose skills appear time and again when called upon.
Over the past two years when Cousins threw to Diggs — including the playoffs — he generated 9.31 adjusted yards per attempt, which would have been the highest mark in 2019 of any passer with over 300 passing attempts. When throwing to any other target, he averaged 7.45 adjusted yards per attempt, good for 11th in the NFL in 2019.
While high-level receivers can regularly generate those kinds of splits, even with great quarterbacks, it really drives home the point that Diggs drove the offense, especially when Adam Thielen was injured for much of 2019.
In that light, could the Vikings conceivably come out ahead in this trade?
In a vacuum, certainly. I’ve argued before that previous high-end wide receiver deals tell us Diggs is worth a late first-round pick and a third-round pick. Using modern trade charts, the Vikings traded for much more than that, essentially earning the equivalent of the 11th overall pick.
Those analytic-derived charts are famously aggressive, however, in valuing later picks much more than NFL teams do. Using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart — one that was developed before the modern CBA with rookie wage scales, fifth-year options and more years of player acquisitions to evaluate — the Vikings functionally earned the 20th overall pick.
However you view the charts, the Vikings have arrived at a point where they now have 13 draft picks this year and an extra pick next year, with five of their selections this year falling in the first 105 picks.
The Vikings entered this offseason already needing a wide receiver to fill out their depth chart so they, in effect, amplified a weakness in trading Diggs. The issue for Minnesota is that they got more than value for trade in the long run but might have hurt their prospects to win in 2020, something they’ve indicated they’re gunning for with the contract extension they handed Cousins.
Diggs does quite a bit. As an excellent route-runner, high-level contested-catch receiver and persistent red zone threat. Replacing that will be difficult, even with a pair of first-round picks. That said, an excellent receiver class gives them an opportunity to limit their losses in this area.
The key for the Vikings is not whether they can replace Stefon Diggs, but rather whether or not the sum total of their traded picks can provide more net value than Diggs provides by himself — in addition to what they gain from the cap relief of trading him. If they get a receiver that can replicate 80 percent of what Diggs does and add a starting-quality pass-rushing defensive tackle they otherwise would not have had, they might come out ahead.
The Vikings now have six picks in the first four rounds of next month’s draft, and they could potentially put together a trade with the day three picks they earned from the Bills and make it seven picks in the first four rounds — all of them with the potential to start or play heavy snaps.
What might that yield?
Link: theathletic.com/1680825/2020/03/17/stefon-diggs-trade-analysis-vikings-take-a-big-swing-now-can-they-make-it-count/
... and neither is this Chris guy.