[OC] QB Rankings - 2020 Draft Class
Mar 10, 2020 19:22:48 GMT -6
Funkytown, Mondry, and 2 more like this
Post by Danchat on Mar 10, 2020 19:22:48 GMT -6
Hello and welcome to my first NFL Draft Rankings article for 2020! I'm going all-out this year with deeper analysis and more game film - and with a highlight and lowlight for every QB! (I've put them all in spoiler tags to save on bandwidth.
Disclaimer:
I am not an NFL scout, nor will I ever be. I am a mere football fan trying who has studied many a draft class and wishes to find a way to determine who will become franchise QBs and who will bust outright. These are my opinion and I will likely be wrong many times once we look back in hindsight!
Some notes before we start:
Film Study: For each prospect, I watched 2 to 3 games for the film study and jotted down my notes. I intentionally chose some of the more difficult matchups they had on their schedule to ensure I wasn’t just watching a QB beat down a bad defense. My writeups are based on this tape, so it might not be indicative of the player's college career / traits.
QB Comparisons: I have given all the QBs a comparison – this is a comparison to another QB who was coming out of college. This is very important to note as I am not comparing them to that QB’s NFL career, but their college career. It’s more of a “prospect” comparison.
Draft Rating: This rating is an amalgamation of the player's measurables, skills, what I saw on tape, combined with a little bit of influence from others' opinions on the QBs. The tape I watched could be considered a small sample size, so I tried not to have it influence the final grade as you might think based on the amount I rambled on about it.
Finally, I’ll give you a chart of the QBs I will be rating and how some draftniks think and some of PFF’s metrics:
#1 Joe Burrow - LSU
Measurables: 6'4" 216 lbs
2019 Stats: 5671/60/6 76.3% 10.8 Y/A (yards/TDs/ints) 368/5 (Rushing yards/TDs)
Against the toughest opponents: 2019/20/1 (5 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
I'm not even sure what to say; Joe Burrow put on display some of the best quarterbacking I have ever seen against the best defenses college football has to offer. I try not to fall in love with prospects, but Burrow checked all of the boxes that I look for in a QB. Pinpoint accuracy and throws a pretty spiral. He's phenomenal when blitzes come in. His awareness was off the charts, and the clock in his head seems to be maintained by a master clocksmith. Burrow's ability to dodge sacks was off the chart, and frequently made unscripted plays. He can legitimately outrun DEs and LBs.
In these matchups against good opponents, LSU's O-line had some troubles stopping blitzes, but Burrow seemed unphased. He was usually able to get outside the pocket with ease, and at worst, was able to throw the ball away. He displayed great chemistry with his receivers and was able to drop in some ballsy throws. In one game, 3 WR drops resulted in about a loss of 100 potential yards and 2 TDs! Best of all, Burrow rarely turned over the ball and was incredibly smart with his ball placement.
Highlight:
Extra Highlight:
Negatives:
Any criticisms I have seem like nitpicks. Burrow had the luxury of a fantastic WR group and a really good HB who was also a dynamic weapon in the passing game, so he had many open receivers to throw to. As a passer, his deep ball wasn't the most accurate and he had a few balls that were misplaced. There were a couple plays where he needed to throw the ball away, but got sacked instead. The only other thing I will mention is that Burrow's arm strength is about average, and nothing to write home about. It will be adequate for the NFL, but he won't be able to make some big throws like others can.
Lowlight:
Summary:
A dynamic playmaker who can dodge sacks at will, run by defenses, and stand in the pocket and find receivers with ease, Burrow appears to be the full package. He had one of the greatest seasons a QB has ever had at the college level, and deservers to be the first overall selection. He appears to be the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck; though this is being projected from one great season, as his first year as starter, 2018, was merely pedestrian.
Comparison: Andrew Luck
There are very few comparisons for Burrow, and Luck is the only one I could come up with. As one who has been watching NFL football since 2009, I haven't seen a QB play exactly like Burrow before. He reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers has a more dynamic arm, and Burrow is a faster runner. Like Luck, Burrow displays great vision, intelligence, and accuracy alongside surprising athleticism. They both didn't quite have great arm strength, but have more than enough of the other qualities to appear to be surefire franchise QBs. Luck did play longer in college, so it's possible Burrow could end up as a one year wonder, but even Luck didn't come close to Burrow's 2019.
Draft Rating: Elite 1st Rounder
#2 Tua Tagovailoa - Alabama
Measurables: 6'1" 218 lbs
2019 stats: 2840/33/3 71.4%, 11.3 Y/A 17/2 rushing
Against toughest opponents: 892/9/2 (3 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Tua has a fantastic deep ball, and he was able to nail several WRs running in stride 25+ yards downfield. He's capable of making quick throws into small windows, and lofting a jump ball right on the sideline. His accuracy is inflated due to short passes, but rarely misses on intermediate throws. Rarely ever turns over the ball and has a good clock in his head, as he usually got rid of the ball on time. Long 3rd down conversions and 4th down conversions were no problems for him. Had a tendency to step up in the pocket and throw instead of abandoning the play.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Has had one of the best supporting casts around him, with an NFL-caliber O-line and a lethal group of WRs. Did not get challenged very often with such talent surrounding him. Not going to be a big threat to run, especially after hip dislocation. While he did not panic when pressured, his accuracy would plummet and resulted in overthrows.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Originally considered to be the 1st overall pick, Tagovailoa has been usurped by Burrow thanks to a hip dislocation and Burrow's unbelievable season. Tua's still a top notch prospect who has the tools necessary to be a franchise QB, and looks well developed as a pocket passer. The only real question will be if he can stay healthy and whether injuries will sap his athleticism.
Comparison: Russell Wilson
I already made a Wilson comparison last year with Kyler Murray, but Tagovailoa is also on the shorter side (6'1") and Wilson had a monster senior year at Wisconsin like Tua has had. I haven't ever seen a left-handed QB like Tua, and Russell is a better runner, so it's not a perfect comparison. But one thing these two do share is a killer deep ball that somehow finds its way into their WRs' bread-baskets.
Draft Rating: 1st Round
#3 Jalen Hurts - Oklahoma
Measurables: 6'1" 222 lbs
2019 stats: 3851/32/8 69.7% 11.3 Y/A - 1298/20 rushing
Against toughest opponents: 1196/6/3 (4 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
I watched more Hurts tape than any other QB in this article, with the reason being that Oklahoma's offense was so heavy on QB runs and dink-and-dunk passes that I had a hard time evaluating Hurts on his own. The completion % is inflated due to short passes, but he is still a relatively accurate passer. He is able to thread the needle on intermediate passes and is able to buy time in the pocket with his mobility. Hurts ran the football on a staggering 233 plays (16-17 times a game!) and has the quickness to be a problem for defenders, but he's not quite lethal as a scrambler. Hurts did a nice job not panicking when blitzes got to him. When given the chance, Jalen was able to make quality passes to his 2nd and 3rd options, and doesn't stare down the 1st option. Hurts also had a bit of a clutch factor to him, as in one game he converted 3rd & 10 or longer 3 different times.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Hurts did not turn over the ball very much at Oklahoma, but the interceptions he did toss were massive blunders. Poor footwork led to a couple abysmal throws, and he simply didn't see defenders on two other picks. Hurts heavily relied on WR Ceedee Lamb to make big plays on short passes, and that's also something Hurts has always had - an outstanding supporting cast. Many of his scrambles didn't amount to much and his broken tackle ratio was very low (his best scrambles were unplanned, it seemed to me). When he is in the pocket, Hurts looks to run too often; it's unclear whether this is a bad habit or whether his receivers have a hard time getting open. Had a slow release when hanging in the pocket.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Hurts had a unique college career, going from powerhouse Alabama's QB to getting benched in the Championship match, and then transferring to Oklahoma, which has been a paradise for QBs. Hurts has a nice arm and is a speedy scrambler, but has many questions to answer as a pocket passer. Hurts would do well to develop into a game manager who can break free as a runner every once in a while.
Comparison: Brett Hundley
While on the surface this may not be a good look as a comparison, I was high on Hundley when he entered the 2015 NFL Draft. When at UCLA, Hundley was a similar QB who was a solid scrambler and was able to put up some nice passing stats (especially completion %), but needed to prove he could beat NFL defenses from the pocket. Hurts will face similar problems when transitioning to a less gimmicky offense that will involve less QB runs and short passes.
Draft Rating: 2nd Round
#4 Justin Herbert - Oregon
Measurables: 6'6" 237 lbs
2019 stats: 3471/32/6 66.8%, 8.1 Y/A
Against toughest opponents: 845/6/1 (4 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Herbert has a great combination of power and accuracy. He has one of the most accurate deep balls of this QB class. Has a very quick release and has a good sense of when to not throw to his primary target. Has decent mobility in the pocket and can buy time with his legs. He's also a decent scrambler and can get some yards on the ground. Has strong mechanics and had good footwork most of the time. Downright lethal in play action and was very good at making defenses fall for the playfake.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Herbert was hard to evaluate as the Oregon OC loved to call short pass after short pass, causing Herbert to be dinking and dunking through the whole game. On plays when he had to sit in the pocket and pressure came, he struggled to get the ball out. Does not push the ball downfield and checks down too often. Defenses knew he loved throwing short, so several deflections happened. In three games of film, I recorded zero "wow" throws. Did not have much of a chance to convert longer 3rd downs. Had a habit of misfiring on short throws. I noticed that the bigger plays usually happened on his first read, and did not make many big plays on his 2nd/3rd reads.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Herbert is a tough prospect to rate. He's got the tools to be a franchise QB, with the accuracy, arm strength, mobility, and has bene a starter for 4 seasons at Oregon. The problems arise when you notice his play dipped after his sophomore year, and the tape is rather mediocre at times. Herbert seems to shrink against tougher competition, and Oregon's system prevented me from seeing what he's capable of. As a likely top 10 pick, it's going to be based on pure projections.
Comparison: Carson Wentz
Similarly 6'6", I wasn't so high on Wentz coming out of North Dakota, but the Eagles were able to tap into his potential with his strong arm and surprising speediness despite his good but not great college stats. Herbert reminds me of him, as teams will be drafting him for his tools, not what he's put on tape. Turning into Wentz would be a best case scenario, but I expect him to fall a bit short of that.
Draft Rating: 2nd Round
#5 Jacob Eason - Washington
Measurables: 6'6" 227 lbs
2019 stats: 3132/23/8 64.2% 7.7 Y/A
Against toughest opponents: 1285/11/3 (5 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Of this crop of rookie QBs, Eason had the quickest release (by my estimate, of course). He has a very strong arm that allows him to zip passes right by DBs, even in very close proximity. He seemed like a rhythmic QB, once he got a few completions of out the way, his confidence would increase and he would make some gutsy throws. His accuracy is nothing to write home about, but most of his incompletions were close. He played with a poor cast of receivers, resulting in 7 drops in 2 games, and also rarely had much separation.
Highlight:
Negatives:
I stated in the positives that he is a "rhythmic" QB, and that also includes poor decisions - he had a tendency to panic when pressure arrived. Many times it resulted him running backwards, and he doesn't have the mobility to make plays off that. In one game this led to multiple infuriating interceptions that were awful decisions. Eason brings very little running ability and lost a bad fumble on a failed scramble.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Eason was Georgia's staring QB in 2016, but he was usurped by Jake Fromm, and didn't start another game until 2019. I really would have liked to see Eason go back to school as while he is a toolsy prospect, he needs to refine his game. Eason brings a strong arm and decent accuracy, but NFL defenses will quickly figure out that blitzes are his weakness.
Comparison: Zach Mettenberger
Another specimen nearly Eason's 6'6" size, Mettenberger had some pre-draft hype as a QB with a strong arm but questionable vision/pocket passing skills (and character issues) and dropped all the way to the 6th round. Their final years in college also line up very similarly, so Eason will need to improve his skills if he wants to avoid Zach's fate: an XFL QB.
Draft Rating: Late 2nd Round
#6 Jordan Love - Utah St.
Measurables: 6'4" 225 lbs
2019 stats: 3042/20/17 61.9% 7.2 Y/A 175/0 rushing
Against toughest opponents: 1048/4/6 (5 games)
-- Film Study –
Positives:
First things first, Jordan Love has a cannon for an arm. He fires lasers downfield that travel at incredible speeds, allowing him to "thread the needle" with some very impressive throws. He's dangerous when on the run, as he tended to make his better throws this way, and he also has a bit of speed to get by defenders. While I don't think he'll be zooming past NFL defenders, he will be a hard one to sack, as he has great mobility in the pocket. His final statline may look bad, but the yardage was low because his WRs were pure garbage at times (I counted 6 drops in one game!) and a few interceptions were desperation heaves when the game was already decided. Love's accuracy was solid, and the many drops prevented his completion % from being higher.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Love's biggest issue is very apparent: he has very poor vision. Several times Love would throw a ball straight to a defender, as many times he simply threw before he even bothered to look. Another time, Love missed a wide open receiver and instead threw a low percentage ball into the back of the endzone, and Utah St had to settle for a field goal. At times, Love would get too greedy and throw balls into very tight coverage. Accuracy-wise Love had a hard time locating the deep ball. He's got the arm, but in the games I watched, he misfired quite frequently.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Usually a QB at a small school who posts a pedestrian statline wouldn't go pro after his junior year, but Jordan Love is loved by many for having an arm that can make Mahomes-esque throws. While he fits the modern standards of an NFL QB with the required mobility and accuracy, he still needs to develop into a passer that can understand what defenses are throwing at him and avoid making massive blunders, which was far too common even against lowly competition in college.
Comparison: Josh Freeman
Looking at old Freeman scouting reports, you'd think they're talking about the same guy. They both played at smaller schools (Freeman was at Kansas State), had elite arm strength, strong mobility, and both struggled with vision and awareness. Freeman had a good sophomore year in the NFL but eventually busted outright, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Love fluctuate between success and failure like Freeman did.
Draft Rating: 3rd Round
#7 Jake Fromm - Georgia
Measurables: 6'2" 220 lbs
2019 stats: 2860/24/5 60.8% 7.4 Y/A
Against toughest opponents: 772/7/2 (4 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Fromm has generally decent accuracy, but this varies from game to game. He was able to place some balls into tight windows. Has pretty good awareness and vision and rarely missed seeing open receivers. WR corps was rather weak, and at times had a hard time getting separation and dropped some very good throws. Usually does not panic when blitzed.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Arm strength can be a bit of a problem at times. Many deep throws ended up being off and caused open receivers to make awkward catches. Accuracy was streaky, coming in at just 60% and had several games below 50%. Even at the combine, some of the routine throws looked difficult for him. Fromm is also a statue in the pocket and brought nothing to the run game. Also has minimal sack-evading ability. Had a NFL-caliber O-line protecting him, and he might end up being only as good as his offensive line is.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Fromm is a decent QB prospect who fills the pocket passer trope quite well. He's a winner and a big name, so that might make teams overvalue him and miss the fact that he wasn't all that accurate and isn't going to survive behind a subpar O-line. I don't see a ton of upside here.
Comparison: Aaron Murray
Murray, a fellow Georgia alum, had a similar slump in his last year at QB, and also had a similar arm strength and accuracy that Fromm does. Jake has a 2 inch advantage on Murray, but looking through old scouting reports, they seem like very similar specimens. Fromm won't go as low as Murray did (5th round), but I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a career backup.
Draft Rating: Late 3rd Round
Comparing the QBs by skills
Honorable Mentions:
#8 Anthony Gordon - Washington St.
There aren't many better places to play for a QB than Washington State, where QBs get to throw the ball 650+ times for tons of yards and TDs. Gordon threw for 5579 yards, 48 TDs, and 16 ints in 689 attempts, but has a below average arm. Gordon also has very poor field vision and made some awful decisions, especially when they played better defenses (which didn't happen often). On paper he sounds very similar to Gardner Minshew, who graduated from Washington State last year and ended up as Jacksonville's starting QB as a 6th round rookie. I wouldn't bet on him breaking out like that, but he could make for a fine backup.
Draft Rating: Late 5th Round
#9 Nate Stanley - lowa
Stanley has put up some boring statlines in Iowa as a 3 year starter (never passed over 3000 yards, never over 60% completion, never over 30 TDs), but has a strong arm and prototypical size, a bit similar to Justin Herbert. However, his mobility and accuracy are far cries from Herbert, as Stanley simply doesn't have enough accuracy to be a legit QB prospect. He's also very stiff in the pocket and will not make plays off schedule.
Draft Rating: 6th Round
#10 Steven Montez - Colorado
A three and a half three starter at Colorado, Montez is another big QB with a very strong arm, but not much else. The 6'4" 230 lbs QB ran a 4.58 '40, so while he's got some nice wheels, he never played all that well at Colorado. He never improved after a quality 2017 campaign and was downright dreadful at times in the pocket. Games against good defenses completely destroyed him.
Draft Rating: Late 6th Round
#11 James Morgan - Florida International
Morgan started out at #8 on my preliminary list, but dropped here. After a solid 2018 campaign, posting a 2727/26/7 65.3% line, Morgan slumped hard as his accuracy dropped to 58% and he only threw 14 TDs in 12 games. I ended up watching one full game and I had enough - while he has a strong arm in which he dropped a couple nice deep passes, he panicked as the game went on and made some boneheaded throws. He also has mediocre mobility and is no threat to scramble. He would be quite the project, even as a potential backup QB.
Draft Rating: 7th Round
Alrighty then, I think that's enough for one article! Let me know what you thought and let's debate about these QBs! I think some of these guys are going to have very bright futures. Who do you think will pan out, and who's going to bust? And let me know if the highlights / lowlights are working for you. Thanks for reading!
Disclaimer:
I am not an NFL scout, nor will I ever be. I am a mere football fan trying who has studied many a draft class and wishes to find a way to determine who will become franchise QBs and who will bust outright. These are my opinion and I will likely be wrong many times once we look back in hindsight!
Some notes before we start:
Film Study: For each prospect, I watched 2 to 3 games for the film study and jotted down my notes. I intentionally chose some of the more difficult matchups they had on their schedule to ensure I wasn’t just watching a QB beat down a bad defense. My writeups are based on this tape, so it might not be indicative of the player's college career / traits.
QB Comparisons: I have given all the QBs a comparison – this is a comparison to another QB who was coming out of college. This is very important to note as I am not comparing them to that QB’s NFL career, but their college career. It’s more of a “prospect” comparison.
Draft Rating: This rating is an amalgamation of the player's measurables, skills, what I saw on tape, combined with a little bit of influence from others' opinions on the QBs. The tape I watched could be considered a small sample size, so I tried not to have it influence the final grade as you might think based on the amount I rambled on about it.
Finally, I’ll give you a chart of the QBs I will be rating and how some draftniks think and some of PFF’s metrics:
#1 Joe Burrow - LSU
Measurables: 6'4" 216 lbs
2019 Stats: 5671/60/6 76.3% 10.8 Y/A (yards/TDs/ints) 368/5 (Rushing yards/TDs)
Against the toughest opponents: 2019/20/1 (5 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
I'm not even sure what to say; Joe Burrow put on display some of the best quarterbacking I have ever seen against the best defenses college football has to offer. I try not to fall in love with prospects, but Burrow checked all of the boxes that I look for in a QB. Pinpoint accuracy and throws a pretty spiral. He's phenomenal when blitzes come in. His awareness was off the charts, and the clock in his head seems to be maintained by a master clocksmith. Burrow's ability to dodge sacks was off the chart, and frequently made unscripted plays. He can legitimately outrun DEs and LBs.
In these matchups against good opponents, LSU's O-line had some troubles stopping blitzes, but Burrow seemed unphased. He was usually able to get outside the pocket with ease, and at worst, was able to throw the ball away. He displayed great chemistry with his receivers and was able to drop in some ballsy throws. In one game, 3 WR drops resulted in about a loss of 100 potential yards and 2 TDs! Best of all, Burrow rarely turned over the ball and was incredibly smart with his ball placement.
Highlight:
Extra Highlight:
Negatives:
Any criticisms I have seem like nitpicks. Burrow had the luxury of a fantastic WR group and a really good HB who was also a dynamic weapon in the passing game, so he had many open receivers to throw to. As a passer, his deep ball wasn't the most accurate and he had a few balls that were misplaced. There were a couple plays where he needed to throw the ball away, but got sacked instead. The only other thing I will mention is that Burrow's arm strength is about average, and nothing to write home about. It will be adequate for the NFL, but he won't be able to make some big throws like others can.
Lowlight:
Summary:
A dynamic playmaker who can dodge sacks at will, run by defenses, and stand in the pocket and find receivers with ease, Burrow appears to be the full package. He had one of the greatest seasons a QB has ever had at the college level, and deservers to be the first overall selection. He appears to be the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck; though this is being projected from one great season, as his first year as starter, 2018, was merely pedestrian.
Comparison: Andrew Luck
There are very few comparisons for Burrow, and Luck is the only one I could come up with. As one who has been watching NFL football since 2009, I haven't seen a QB play exactly like Burrow before. He reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers has a more dynamic arm, and Burrow is a faster runner. Like Luck, Burrow displays great vision, intelligence, and accuracy alongside surprising athleticism. They both didn't quite have great arm strength, but have more than enough of the other qualities to appear to be surefire franchise QBs. Luck did play longer in college, so it's possible Burrow could end up as a one year wonder, but even Luck didn't come close to Burrow's 2019.
Draft Rating: Elite 1st Rounder
#2 Tua Tagovailoa - Alabama
Measurables: 6'1" 218 lbs
2019 stats: 2840/33/3 71.4%, 11.3 Y/A 17/2 rushing
Against toughest opponents: 892/9/2 (3 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Tua has a fantastic deep ball, and he was able to nail several WRs running in stride 25+ yards downfield. He's capable of making quick throws into small windows, and lofting a jump ball right on the sideline. His accuracy is inflated due to short passes, but rarely misses on intermediate throws. Rarely ever turns over the ball and has a good clock in his head, as he usually got rid of the ball on time. Long 3rd down conversions and 4th down conversions were no problems for him. Had a tendency to step up in the pocket and throw instead of abandoning the play.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Has had one of the best supporting casts around him, with an NFL-caliber O-line and a lethal group of WRs. Did not get challenged very often with such talent surrounding him. Not going to be a big threat to run, especially after hip dislocation. While he did not panic when pressured, his accuracy would plummet and resulted in overthrows.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Originally considered to be the 1st overall pick, Tagovailoa has been usurped by Burrow thanks to a hip dislocation and Burrow's unbelievable season. Tua's still a top notch prospect who has the tools necessary to be a franchise QB, and looks well developed as a pocket passer. The only real question will be if he can stay healthy and whether injuries will sap his athleticism.
Comparison: Russell Wilson
I already made a Wilson comparison last year with Kyler Murray, but Tagovailoa is also on the shorter side (6'1") and Wilson had a monster senior year at Wisconsin like Tua has had. I haven't ever seen a left-handed QB like Tua, and Russell is a better runner, so it's not a perfect comparison. But one thing these two do share is a killer deep ball that somehow finds its way into their WRs' bread-baskets.
Draft Rating: 1st Round
#3 Jalen Hurts - Oklahoma
Measurables: 6'1" 222 lbs
2019 stats: 3851/32/8 69.7% 11.3 Y/A - 1298/20 rushing
Against toughest opponents: 1196/6/3 (4 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
I watched more Hurts tape than any other QB in this article, with the reason being that Oklahoma's offense was so heavy on QB runs and dink-and-dunk passes that I had a hard time evaluating Hurts on his own. The completion % is inflated due to short passes, but he is still a relatively accurate passer. He is able to thread the needle on intermediate passes and is able to buy time in the pocket with his mobility. Hurts ran the football on a staggering 233 plays (16-17 times a game!) and has the quickness to be a problem for defenders, but he's not quite lethal as a scrambler. Hurts did a nice job not panicking when blitzes got to him. When given the chance, Jalen was able to make quality passes to his 2nd and 3rd options, and doesn't stare down the 1st option. Hurts also had a bit of a clutch factor to him, as in one game he converted 3rd & 10 or longer 3 different times.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Hurts did not turn over the ball very much at Oklahoma, but the interceptions he did toss were massive blunders. Poor footwork led to a couple abysmal throws, and he simply didn't see defenders on two other picks. Hurts heavily relied on WR Ceedee Lamb to make big plays on short passes, and that's also something Hurts has always had - an outstanding supporting cast. Many of his scrambles didn't amount to much and his broken tackle ratio was very low (his best scrambles were unplanned, it seemed to me). When he is in the pocket, Hurts looks to run too often; it's unclear whether this is a bad habit or whether his receivers have a hard time getting open. Had a slow release when hanging in the pocket.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Hurts had a unique college career, going from powerhouse Alabama's QB to getting benched in the Championship match, and then transferring to Oklahoma, which has been a paradise for QBs. Hurts has a nice arm and is a speedy scrambler, but has many questions to answer as a pocket passer. Hurts would do well to develop into a game manager who can break free as a runner every once in a while.
Comparison: Brett Hundley
While on the surface this may not be a good look as a comparison, I was high on Hundley when he entered the 2015 NFL Draft. When at UCLA, Hundley was a similar QB who was a solid scrambler and was able to put up some nice passing stats (especially completion %), but needed to prove he could beat NFL defenses from the pocket. Hurts will face similar problems when transitioning to a less gimmicky offense that will involve less QB runs and short passes.
Draft Rating: 2nd Round
#4 Justin Herbert - Oregon
Measurables: 6'6" 237 lbs
2019 stats: 3471/32/6 66.8%, 8.1 Y/A
Against toughest opponents: 845/6/1 (4 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Herbert has a great combination of power and accuracy. He has one of the most accurate deep balls of this QB class. Has a very quick release and has a good sense of when to not throw to his primary target. Has decent mobility in the pocket and can buy time with his legs. He's also a decent scrambler and can get some yards on the ground. Has strong mechanics and had good footwork most of the time. Downright lethal in play action and was very good at making defenses fall for the playfake.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Herbert was hard to evaluate as the Oregon OC loved to call short pass after short pass, causing Herbert to be dinking and dunking through the whole game. On plays when he had to sit in the pocket and pressure came, he struggled to get the ball out. Does not push the ball downfield and checks down too often. Defenses knew he loved throwing short, so several deflections happened. In three games of film, I recorded zero "wow" throws. Did not have much of a chance to convert longer 3rd downs. Had a habit of misfiring on short throws. I noticed that the bigger plays usually happened on his first read, and did not make many big plays on his 2nd/3rd reads.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Herbert is a tough prospect to rate. He's got the tools to be a franchise QB, with the accuracy, arm strength, mobility, and has bene a starter for 4 seasons at Oregon. The problems arise when you notice his play dipped after his sophomore year, and the tape is rather mediocre at times. Herbert seems to shrink against tougher competition, and Oregon's system prevented me from seeing what he's capable of. As a likely top 10 pick, it's going to be based on pure projections.
Comparison: Carson Wentz
Similarly 6'6", I wasn't so high on Wentz coming out of North Dakota, but the Eagles were able to tap into his potential with his strong arm and surprising speediness despite his good but not great college stats. Herbert reminds me of him, as teams will be drafting him for his tools, not what he's put on tape. Turning into Wentz would be a best case scenario, but I expect him to fall a bit short of that.
Draft Rating: 2nd Round
#5 Jacob Eason - Washington
Measurables: 6'6" 227 lbs
2019 stats: 3132/23/8 64.2% 7.7 Y/A
Against toughest opponents: 1285/11/3 (5 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Of this crop of rookie QBs, Eason had the quickest release (by my estimate, of course). He has a very strong arm that allows him to zip passes right by DBs, even in very close proximity. He seemed like a rhythmic QB, once he got a few completions of out the way, his confidence would increase and he would make some gutsy throws. His accuracy is nothing to write home about, but most of his incompletions were close. He played with a poor cast of receivers, resulting in 7 drops in 2 games, and also rarely had much separation.
Highlight:
Negatives:
I stated in the positives that he is a "rhythmic" QB, and that also includes poor decisions - he had a tendency to panic when pressure arrived. Many times it resulted him running backwards, and he doesn't have the mobility to make plays off that. In one game this led to multiple infuriating interceptions that were awful decisions. Eason brings very little running ability and lost a bad fumble on a failed scramble.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Eason was Georgia's staring QB in 2016, but he was usurped by Jake Fromm, and didn't start another game until 2019. I really would have liked to see Eason go back to school as while he is a toolsy prospect, he needs to refine his game. Eason brings a strong arm and decent accuracy, but NFL defenses will quickly figure out that blitzes are his weakness.
Comparison: Zach Mettenberger
Another specimen nearly Eason's 6'6" size, Mettenberger had some pre-draft hype as a QB with a strong arm but questionable vision/pocket passing skills (and character issues) and dropped all the way to the 6th round. Their final years in college also line up very similarly, so Eason will need to improve his skills if he wants to avoid Zach's fate: an XFL QB.
Draft Rating: Late 2nd Round
#6 Jordan Love - Utah St.
Measurables: 6'4" 225 lbs
2019 stats: 3042/20/17 61.9% 7.2 Y/A 175/0 rushing
Against toughest opponents: 1048/4/6 (5 games)
-- Film Study –
Positives:
First things first, Jordan Love has a cannon for an arm. He fires lasers downfield that travel at incredible speeds, allowing him to "thread the needle" with some very impressive throws. He's dangerous when on the run, as he tended to make his better throws this way, and he also has a bit of speed to get by defenders. While I don't think he'll be zooming past NFL defenders, he will be a hard one to sack, as he has great mobility in the pocket. His final statline may look bad, but the yardage was low because his WRs were pure garbage at times (I counted 6 drops in one game!) and a few interceptions were desperation heaves when the game was already decided. Love's accuracy was solid, and the many drops prevented his completion % from being higher.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Love's biggest issue is very apparent: he has very poor vision. Several times Love would throw a ball straight to a defender, as many times he simply threw before he even bothered to look. Another time, Love missed a wide open receiver and instead threw a low percentage ball into the back of the endzone, and Utah St had to settle for a field goal. At times, Love would get too greedy and throw balls into very tight coverage. Accuracy-wise Love had a hard time locating the deep ball. He's got the arm, but in the games I watched, he misfired quite frequently.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Usually a QB at a small school who posts a pedestrian statline wouldn't go pro after his junior year, but Jordan Love is loved by many for having an arm that can make Mahomes-esque throws. While he fits the modern standards of an NFL QB with the required mobility and accuracy, he still needs to develop into a passer that can understand what defenses are throwing at him and avoid making massive blunders, which was far too common even against lowly competition in college.
Comparison: Josh Freeman
Looking at old Freeman scouting reports, you'd think they're talking about the same guy. They both played at smaller schools (Freeman was at Kansas State), had elite arm strength, strong mobility, and both struggled with vision and awareness. Freeman had a good sophomore year in the NFL but eventually busted outright, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Love fluctuate between success and failure like Freeman did.
Draft Rating: 3rd Round
#7 Jake Fromm - Georgia
Measurables: 6'2" 220 lbs
2019 stats: 2860/24/5 60.8% 7.4 Y/A
Against toughest opponents: 772/7/2 (4 games)
-- Film Study --
Positives:
Fromm has generally decent accuracy, but this varies from game to game. He was able to place some balls into tight windows. Has pretty good awareness and vision and rarely missed seeing open receivers. WR corps was rather weak, and at times had a hard time getting separation and dropped some very good throws. Usually does not panic when blitzed.
Highlight:
Negatives:
Arm strength can be a bit of a problem at times. Many deep throws ended up being off and caused open receivers to make awkward catches. Accuracy was streaky, coming in at just 60% and had several games below 50%. Even at the combine, some of the routine throws looked difficult for him. Fromm is also a statue in the pocket and brought nothing to the run game. Also has minimal sack-evading ability. Had a NFL-caliber O-line protecting him, and he might end up being only as good as his offensive line is.
Lowlight:
Summary:
Fromm is a decent QB prospect who fills the pocket passer trope quite well. He's a winner and a big name, so that might make teams overvalue him and miss the fact that he wasn't all that accurate and isn't going to survive behind a subpar O-line. I don't see a ton of upside here.
Comparison: Aaron Murray
Murray, a fellow Georgia alum, had a similar slump in his last year at QB, and also had a similar arm strength and accuracy that Fromm does. Jake has a 2 inch advantage on Murray, but looking through old scouting reports, they seem like very similar specimens. Fromm won't go as low as Murray did (5th round), but I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a career backup.
Draft Rating: Late 3rd Round
Comparing the QBs by skills
Honorable Mentions:
#8 Anthony Gordon - Washington St.
There aren't many better places to play for a QB than Washington State, where QBs get to throw the ball 650+ times for tons of yards and TDs. Gordon threw for 5579 yards, 48 TDs, and 16 ints in 689 attempts, but has a below average arm. Gordon also has very poor field vision and made some awful decisions, especially when they played better defenses (which didn't happen often). On paper he sounds very similar to Gardner Minshew, who graduated from Washington State last year and ended up as Jacksonville's starting QB as a 6th round rookie. I wouldn't bet on him breaking out like that, but he could make for a fine backup.
Draft Rating: Late 5th Round
#9 Nate Stanley - lowa
Stanley has put up some boring statlines in Iowa as a 3 year starter (never passed over 3000 yards, never over 60% completion, never over 30 TDs), but has a strong arm and prototypical size, a bit similar to Justin Herbert. However, his mobility and accuracy are far cries from Herbert, as Stanley simply doesn't have enough accuracy to be a legit QB prospect. He's also very stiff in the pocket and will not make plays off schedule.
Draft Rating: 6th Round
#10 Steven Montez - Colorado
A three and a half three starter at Colorado, Montez is another big QB with a very strong arm, but not much else. The 6'4" 230 lbs QB ran a 4.58 '40, so while he's got some nice wheels, he never played all that well at Colorado. He never improved after a quality 2017 campaign and was downright dreadful at times in the pocket. Games against good defenses completely destroyed him.
Draft Rating: Late 6th Round
#11 James Morgan - Florida International
Morgan started out at #8 on my preliminary list, but dropped here. After a solid 2018 campaign, posting a 2727/26/7 65.3% line, Morgan slumped hard as his accuracy dropped to 58% and he only threw 14 TDs in 12 games. I ended up watching one full game and I had enough - while he has a strong arm in which he dropped a couple nice deep passes, he panicked as the game went on and made some boneheaded throws. He also has mediocre mobility and is no threat to scramble. He would be quite the project, even as a potential backup QB.
Draft Rating: 7th Round
Alrighty then, I think that's enough for one article! Let me know what you thought and let's debate about these QBs! I think some of these guys are going to have very bright futures. Who do you think will pan out, and who's going to bust? And let me know if the highlights / lowlights are working for you. Thanks for reading!