2020 Vikings Free Agency/Roster Moves

Of the 36 Kansas City Chiefs players who were on the field for at least one offensive or defensive snap during the Super Bowl, 10 were originally signed to the roster as unrestricted free agents.

So what’s the point? It’s long been true that the best way to build is through the draft. That’s where teams can find players whose performance exceeds their cost. Free agency is a different animal. It’s the one time players can hit the open market and actually find out what they’re worth. Signing big-name free agents often ends in disappointment because the expectations associated with the cost are so high.

Having said that, teams shouldn’t just completely sit out free agency (I’m looking at you, Cincinnati). They should strategically look to fill needs and supplement their rosters before the draft. The Chiefs got great value from right tackle Mitchell Schwartz after signing him as a free agent in 2016. They also added safety Tyrann Mathieu as a free agent last offseason, and he became a key defensive player during their Super Bowl run.

But what’s the best approach to take when the new league year begins at 4 p.m. EST on March 18? Below are nine guidelines to try to find success — or perhaps more importantly, avoid disaster — in free agency. This is not a “I’m a know-it-all telling GMs what to do” post. Pretty much everything that follows can be debated, and I’m certainly open to making tweaks for the 2021 version.

1. Focus on age, injury and character
Age is obvious. As guys get older, the risks of injury or a decline in performance increase. Free agency is about future projections, not past performance. Be wary of gambling that an older player will be the exception. The same goes for injuries. If the justification for a risky signing begins with “If he can stay healthy…” then you should probably not sign the player (or you should at least heavily factor the injury history into your evaluation and the price you’re willing to pay). One helpful exercise is to always ask: Why did the player’s previous team let him hit the market? Answering that can lead to a more balanced evaluation.

Assessing character and locker-room fit can be difficult. This isn’t like the draft, where teams can talk to coaches and interview prospects, but there are ways to at least try to get a good sense of character and fit. Maybe you did a lot of work on the free agent previously during the draft process. Maybe you have a coach or a scout who knows the free agent well from a previous stop. Maybe you have a player who was his teammate on another NFL team or even in college.

The nature of free agency means that the organization is willing to pay money to an outside player that it could be spending on players already on the roster. That can create a tricky dynamic in the locker room and is another reason why character and fit are so important.

2. Don’t spend on RBs, two-down LBs or two-down DTs
I’m not going to go full-on “running backs don’t matter” here. But investing significant money for a running back on a second contract rarely works out well. We’ve had plenty of data and examples to back this up in recent years, with Le’Veon Bell being the latest. You’re getting a player who almost always has suffered a lot of wear and tear at a position that will require his body to take a pounding. Rather than bet on the exception, look to the draft and take chances on young, less expensive running backs. Scheme and blocking can turn a mediocre back into an effective one.

The thinking is similar for downhill, thumping linebackers and run-stuffing defensive tackles. It’s not that stopping the run is unimportant, but there is a surplus at those positions. If you have a hole on your roster at one of these spots, you can fill it later in the offseason at a relatively inexpensive cost.

Bottom line: If you’re going to take a big swing, make sure it’s on a player who helps your passing game or helps stop the opponent’s passing game.

3. Don’t fall in love and convince yourself you have to have a player
Good organizations generally go into negotiations with “walk-away” numbers. They know exactly how high they’re willing to go to land a player, stick with that number and say “thanks but no thanks” if the asking price exceeds that number.

Others hear an agent say the player is not signing with them unless he gets a Godfather offer, and they get in YOLO mode and make the Godfather offer. The Jets signing linebacker C.J. Mosley to a five-year, $85 million contract last offseason is a good example of this.

It’s fine to get excited and be aggressive, but a lack of discipline will lead to costly mistakes that can cripple a franchise.

4. Honestly assess the abilities of your own coaching staff
It’s common for teams to look at a free agent and convince themselves that in a different scheme and environment, the player will flourish. And sometimes it’s perfectly reasonable to think that way. The Patriots with Bill Belichick are a great example. Take a look at their defensive personnel last year. It was far from the most talented group in the NFL, but Belichick knew how to play to each guy’s strengths, and it led to one of the best units in the NFL.

But not every coach is Belichick. And the more honest organizations can be about their coaching abilities, the better off they’ll be with decisions about free agents.