[OC] Danchat's Guide to the Offseason 2020
It's time for the 2020 NFL Offseason, and you know what that means! It's time for the 5th Annual Guide to the Vikings Offseason from yours truly! And when I say "guide to the offseason", I mean to say this is how I would manage the Vikings' roster if I were the GM. This is not a list of predictions that I think will happen, but what I want to happen.
Anyways, here's the current cap situation for the Vikings:
Cap Room: -$12.84
Wow, we’ve went from $53M in 2018 to $6.3M in 2019, and now a negative double digit amount in 2020. Not good, but there will be moves that can be made to give this roster some flexibility.
Offseason Goals:
Get younger and focus on getting players who can help now and down the road. I may be the GM in control right now, but I am going to operate under the assumption that I’m going to have a job in 2021. This isn’t the time to get reckless and throw everything away to win now, but it’s also not time to trade a bunch of picks and move up into the top 10 to select a QB. If 2020 is to be the final year of the Spielman-Zimmer combo, then I want to make the roster prepared to rebound quickly to prevent several years of tanking.
So, without any further ado, let's get this party started!
Releases / Cuts
CB Xavier Rhodes (move saves $8.1M, leaves $4.8M of dead money)
Y’know, before I go into the negatives about Rhodes, I’d just like to mention that I’ve enjoyed most of Rhodes’ career as a Viking. I don’t hate the guy - I was a huge fan of his and was high on my wish list when he was selected. At his peak, he was a top CB who could lock on to most WRs and shut them down. Threats like Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones were neutralized in his wake.
But that was the past, and this is now. I remarked in last year’s offseason manifesto that Rhodes had a down year in 2018. Well, Rhodes redefined what a down year for him was in 2019. He’s clearly slow down due to age and injury, gave up play after play in coverage, consistently made dumb mistakes to draw penalties, and multiple times had communication issues that resulted in huge plays. He was far and away the defense’s biggest liability, and finding an upgrade would go a long way to improve this team.
DT Linval Joseph (move saves $10.49M, leaves $2.4M of dead money)
This was a hard move to make, as Linval has been the D-line’s anchor for several years now. Joseph’s contributions in the trenches established the Vikings’ defense being a top 10 unit year in and year out. But he’s 31 now, and has been steadily declining since 2017. I’m not risking finding out if he takes another step back in 2020.
His play in 2019 was above average, but by PFF’s grades, the worst in his career as a Viking (he set the bar pretty darn high though!). Joseph only missed 2 games due to injury, but the Vikings’ run defense had a masterful game against Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas in his absence. It makes sense to slide Shamar Stephen into his slot as the nose tackle, since Stephen is a solid run defender, but brings zero pass rush.
DE Everson Griffen voids his own deal (move saves $13.07M, leaves $800K in dead money)
Griffen’s contract is a bit of an odd one, allowing him to void his deal due to his high level of play in 2019. But why would he void the rest of his 3 year, $444M deal? It’s simple – there’s only $800K left guaranteed, meaning that the Vikings could cut him at any time and pocket the money. Instead, it’d be wise if Griffen cut his losses and headed to the FA market for a new deal. While it’s certainly possible the Vikings could work on a new deal with him, I’ll let him sign elsewhere.
Griffen’s play in 2019 was like his past seasons after a troublesome 2018. He’s going to turn 33 next year, and I’m pushing towards a youth movement, so I will opt to let Griffen go. It will be difficult to replace him.
Current cap room: $18.8M
Restructures
LT Riley Reiff – Drops cap hit to $7.22M, pushes $3.7M guaranteed to 2021. Move saves $5.98M of 2020 cap.
This restructure will act as a small pay cut and push some of Reiff’s unguaranteed money to 2021. Instead of receiving a $10.9M salary in 2021, his salary will be cut to the minimum, but he will receive a prorated bonus of $9.4M. Reiff will basically make a bit less money in 2020, but will get more total money thanks to guaranteeing some of his 2021 salary.
At the moment, the Vikings don’t have a replacement ready at LT, which is one of the hardest positions to fill in the NFL. The only real possibility I see outside of trading for Trent Williams would be to move RT O’Neill there, but I’d rather keep him at his current position. Reiff is a average LT who is starting to age and is rather expensive, so this will likely be his last year as a Viking.
FS Harrison Smith – Drops cap hit to $7.047M, pushes $3.9M to 2021. Move saves $3.7 of 2020 cap.
This restructure will not act as a pay cut. Smith will receive a $7.85M bonus that will be split between 2020 and 2021. We will have plenty of money to spend in 2021, so I think moving about $8M there with these two restructures is fine enough, and will not mortgage the future.
Smith is still playing on a very high level, but it’s possible 2020 will be his last year as a Viking. I’m not ready to move on quite yet.
WR Stefon Diggs – Drops cap hit to $10.5M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap.
This is a rather minor restructure, and like Smith’s, not a pay cut. The move turns $4M of Diggs’ base 2020 salary and guarantees it, giving it to him up front. This causes $1M to be added to each of the 4 years of his deal, which is good for him as he only has $9M guaranteed left on his deal. He will be a potential trade chip for the 2021 offseason, but I’m not going to move on from him now – the offense would suffer greatly without him.
LB Eric Kendricks – Drops cap hit to $7.014M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap.
I didn’t want to make this many restructures, but unfortunately, here we are. This is the exact same as Diggs’ restructure. Kendricks will now make $12M in 2021 and $13M in 2022, which are reasonable with the elite level of play he held in 2019.
Current cap room: $34.5M
Extensions to Players Under Contract
None
Yeah, that’s right! I am not giving extensions to anyone who is under contract, which mainly includes Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook. I am by no means anti-Cousins, but I have no interest paying him over $30M a year to be our QB. Kirk gives the Vikings fringe top 10 QB play and has shown that he is capable of winning a tough playoff game, but I’m also concerned that Cousins is stuck at Alex Smith level. Smith is a fine QB, but the Chiefs never had the ability to get over the hump until they went ahead and drafted Pat Mahomes. Cousins is a fine QB to have in the meantime, but preparations should be made to look to improve his position.
Cook, on the other hand, is an easy “no” for an extension. He can’t stay healthy, nearly all of the best HBs in the NFL are currently on their rookie deals, and the Vikings should focus on throwing money at other positions than HB. They already have capable backups in Mattison and Boone, and you can put most any HB out there and they’ll do a fine job if you provide the blocking. I don’t fear a Cook holdout in 2020, but he likely would if he gets the franchise tag slapped on him in 2021. I also don’t feel the need to trade him now, but they could try a tag-and-trade over the 2021 season. As for now, I’ll head into 2020 with Cook as my primary running back.
Re-signing Our Free Agents
FS Anthony Harris – 4 years, $55M
Now with contracts laid out!
I went back and forth on extending Harris. In one sense, paying two safeties $10M+ a year is not a wise way to allocate your cap. Safety is also the deepest position in the NFL, and many talented players can be had for cheap (I was targeting FS Tre Boston as a cheap replacement).
However, Harris is currently one of the best players in the NFL. He is a playmaker, picking off 7 passes this season (including postseason). That makes 10 interceptions in his past 25 starts! While I planned on allocating money to the trenches, I simply couldn’t justify letting Harris go. Harrison Smith isn’t going to be around forever, and the Vikings defense needs more players who can generate turnovers.
CB Mackensie Alexander – 4 years, $32M
I also went back and forth on Alexander, but I’ve opted to give him a new deal, as he fits my plan of going young. Once Alexander was able to get ahold of the starting nickel job in 2018, he’s been a good but not great pass defender who has outplayed Rhodes and Waynes each of the past two seasons. 2020 will be just his third season in the starting lineup, so you’d hope he could continue to improve his game.
OLB Eric Wilson – Original Round Tender - $2.144M
Wilson jumped Ben Gedeon on the depth chart as he became a “starter” as the third linebacker to Kendricks and Barr. Of course, I say that with quotation marks because the Vikings only use a 3rd LB about 25% of the time. He’s a quality player and deserves to be re-signed, though it’s possible another team could swoop in and bid for him since he’s a restricted free agent.
FB C.J. Ham – Extend on a 3 year, $6M deal
Instead of tendering Ham and giving him $2.144M like Wilson, I’ve opted to give Ham a small deal that will make him the 4th highest paid FB in the league… no, seriously. Only two FBs in the league make over $3M a year, so Ham should be able to be retained for an amount this small.
K Dan Bailey – 2 year, $4M deal
I’ll tell you what, I did not imagine I’d be writing this back in the 2019 preseason when the Vikings traded a 5th rounder to get Kaare Vedvik. Bailey suffered from horrible accuracy during training camp, yet rebounded and had a very strong regular season. It seemed his poor 2018 season would have signaled the end for him, but he responded by suddenly turning back into his old self when he was a Cowboy. I would make sure to get him back, especially since our efforts in finding a new kicker are likely to end in failure.
SS Andrew Sendejo – 1 year, $900K
Sendejo was willing to sign a 1 year $860K deal with the Eagles last offseason, so perhaps he would make a bit more to return as a backup. Sendejo wasn’t bad with the Eagles (though he did give one of his own players a severe concussion) and was a quality backup for the Vikings, coming up with a big interception in the Broncos game and playing an entire game at nickel CB against the Saints and holding his own. Safeties are a dime a dozen these days, so it shouldn’t take much to get him back.
Players Being Let Go
CB Trae Waynes
Always more name than game, it took a full two seasons of learning on the bench and rotating with Terence Newman to get Waynes into the starting lineup… and the former 11th overall pick turned into an unspectacular #2 CB. Trae can take on most team’s secondary and tertiary receivers and do just fine, but when he goes up against a team’s team option, he simply can’t do it. He’s got speed like few other CBs, but his ball skills are so poor, his speed is put to poor use again and again. He will likely sign a multi-year deal that will pay him far more than he’s worth.
S Jayron Kearse
The Vikings might actually end up missing Kearse more than you’d expect. When he was in the lineup, Kearse was a strong run defender and had very strong coverage grades when he got the chance. Unfortunately, the Vikings rarely ever gave him the chance to see the field over his 4 year career in Minnesota, so other teams will be signing him for his potential. Add in a boneheaded DUI that will likely earn him a 4 game suspension to start the 2020 season, and he will likely be had for cheap.
P Britton Colquitt
I originally opted to keep Colquitt with a 2 year deal, but the market for punters is paying more than I would like to give with the cap that’s already bursting at the seams. I was surprised to learn that 15 NFL punters make over $2M a year, meaning that Colquitt will require at that much. The Vikings have shown that they can bounce between Quigley/Wile/Colquitt while getting average at worst performances from them, so I’d rather go to the drawing board with a UDFA punter
TE David Morgan
Morgan was a quality run-blocking TE for the Vikes from 2016-18, but a knee problem from 2018 cost his entire 2019 season. I liked what I saw from UDFA TE Brandon Dillon, so I will move on to the younger, cheaper, and healthier option.
(update: apparently Morgan’s contract tolled over into 2020, which means I save $745K by cutting him. I get a tiny bit more cap to play with! Hooray!)
T Rashod Hill
Hill might command a bit of money after starting 16 games the past 3 years – though, he should end up as a high-end swing tackle, and not a starter. The Vikings tried to start the 2018 season with him as their RT, and it did not work out at all. He will already be 28 in 2020, and I will fill his spot with a rookie.
DE Stephen Weatherly
The former 7th rounder put himself on the map with a solid 6 game replacement of Everson Griffen during the 2018 season. The Vikings rewarded him with a larger role in 2019, but you could hardly tell, as he basically disappeared from sight. Weatherly’s play was among the league’s worst pass rushers, so I’m unsure if the Vikings should ask him to return. He could be a guy who returns at a cheap price when he discovers that other teams aren’t interested in paying him.
C Brett Jones
Jones is a fine backup center, but I’d rather develop my own long term interior O-line backup.
WR Laquon Treadwell
LOL bye!
G Dakota Dozier
Dozier was a 90 man roster add who signed a deal near the league minimum, but was able to win the backup guard/center role and ended up starting 4 games. He did not look good (though it was against the Packers, Bears, Eagles, and Broncos, so tough competition there) and I don’t want him back next year.
HB Ameer Abdullah
Functioning as the backup 3rd down HB and kick returner, I think I can find an easy replacement to Abdullah late in the draft, or even a UDFA. He’s fine at what he does and could return at the veteran minimum, if needed.
QB Sean Mannion
I have no interest in retaining one of the league’s worst backup QBs. It’s nice that Cousins is so durable, but I’d still like to find a better option. I’m still salty from the whole Sloter situation.
CB Marcus Sherels
Poor Marcus. I was right to leave him out of my plans in last year’s article, but Sherels ended up getting cut 3 different times in 2019, and had 2 stints with the Vikings, ending with a muffed punt in the divisional matchup against the 49ers. Sherels should retire.
LB Kentrell Brothers
Brothers is a fine special teams LB, but no longer has the upside to crack the starting lineup. His start against the Bears Week 17 was his first career start, and quite possibly his last. I’d be fine bringing him back at the veteran minimum.
Trades
Vikings send G/C Pat Elflein and a compensatory 7th round pick to the Bengals for their 6th round pick.
With one year left on his deal, Pat Elflein could make for a nice reclamation project with another team. He’s not a fit in the Vikings zone blocking system, and would have a decent chance at cracking Cincinnati’s starting lineup. This move saves a bit of cap, and I won’t have a hard time finding a backup guard/center.
Current cap room: $17.85M
Free Agency
Sign CB Kendall Fuller to a 4 year, $36M deal.
The younger brother of Bears CB Kyle Fuller, Kendall started out as the Redskins nickel CB in 2017 before getting sent to Kansas City in the Alex Smith trade. He had standout 2017 and 2018 seasons, and became a full-time starter with the Chiefs after they pulled off the trade. However, his 2019 had him miss 5 games due to injury and his quality of play dipped. I think this is a great opportunity to sign a young (only 25 in 2020!) CB who has the potential to be a long term option. He may not be the shutdown #1 CB that the Vikings could use, but Fuller can function as an outside CB on 2 WR sets and usually shifts to the nickel in 3+ WR sets, so it’s not like he’s locked into being a nickel CB.
The Vikings absolutely need to come away with at least 1 veteran CB who can hold his own, and while it will be hard to bid for the big fish in the free agent market, Fuller would be a great second tier grab.
Sign DT Maliek Collins to a 5 year, $56M deal.
This will be the only other major splash the Vikings will make in the free agent market. The Vikings D-line sorely lacked a 3T DT to add some interior rush, and Collins will give them that push. PFF had him as a top 10 interior pass rusher, and while he only provided 4 sacks for the Cowboys last season, it’s all about the pressures. He’s also not a pushover against the run. I expect Collins’ price tag to reach into the $11-12M per year range, but it’s possible the price goes higher than this. If they can’t land a player of Collins’ caliber in free agency, they should look to find that guy with their 1st round pick.
Sign WR Tajae Sharpe to a 1 year, $3.5M deal.
This wouldn’t be a Day 1 deal, but it would make for a solid acquisition of a WR who could fill the #3 role. The former 5th rounder started his career as the Titans’ #2 WR, but bounced between the fringe of the roster and starting again throughout his 4 year career. Sharpe could make for a good fit as an outside receiver with Diggs/Thielen in the slot and the other as the opposite outside receiver. He’s not going to be anything special, but he’d give you way more production than Treadwell could in that same role.
Sign OLB Bryce Hager to a 1 year, $900K deal.
The former Ram has been a gritty special teams contributor, but has never gotten the chance to seize a starting role for LA. The Vikings could use a backup to Kendricks/Barr/Wilson with just Cameron Smith left on the roster (I don't have Gedeon making the team). This would likely be a post-draft signing.
Current cap room: $3.2M
Draft Picks
Pick 1-25: G Shane Lemieux
I don’t know this year’s draft class all that well, so please understand that the positions are more important than the actual players here. I opted not to go after a guard in free agency to fill Elflein’s spot, but I fully intend to find a top-notch option. Since I will be returning Reiff, O’Neill, Bradbury, and Kline, I can’t afford to go cheap on the 5th spot. If we could get a big rookie season from an interior offensive lineman, it should give Cousins more time to throw and a better chance of hanging with tougher pass rushes.
Pick 2-25: DE Kenny Willekes
More picks to bolster the trench! Right now my DE depth chart is Hunter, Odenigbo… and not much else. Even if Willekes ends up as a rotational body behind Odenigbo, we need more talent in the D-line rotation. Willekes has a high motor and picked up 10.5 sacks for Michigan State in 2019, and would hopefully end up as another success story for D-line coach / co-DC Andre Patterson.
Pick 3-25: QB Jalen Hurts
You probably could have seen this one coming since I refused to give Cousins an extension. It’s time the Vikings started taking some shots at QBs, even if they are likely to be low-percentage ones. I understand that many are hesitant to let Spielman try to draft another QB, but I think that’s a poor reason to never attempt it again. Hurts has the upside to be a mobile QB with a decent arm, but needs to work on his vision and decision-making process. I’d rather hand the 2021 Vikings Hurts + a cheap veteran than giving Cousins a new $30M+ a year deal.
Pick 4-25: T Jack Driscoll
I’m taking a similar approach Spielman did to the 2019 draft – go O-line with the 1st and 4th round picks. I’ve already stated that this is likely to be Reiff’s last year as a Viking, we could use a depth pick to develop another tackle alongside Oli Udoh. Driscoll had a good year as Auburn’s RT, but needs to build strength (only 296 lbs). Perhaps O’Neill could move to LT in 2021 and Driscoll could take over the RT spot then too.
Pick 4-Compensatory: CB Troy Pride Jr.
Zimmer has a notorious disdain for using rookie CBs, so I’d rather see the Vikes select them later in the draft. Pride Jr. can sit behind Fuller, Hughes, Alexander, and Hill and develop for the future.
Pick 6-14: OLB Kamal Martin (acquired in trade with TB)
Late round LBs are what Rick Spielman lives for. He can make up for not drafting Gophers LB Blake Cashman last year and scoop up another U of M alum in Martin.
Pick 6-25: S Jaylinn Hawkins
Now we’re getting deep in the weeds. My plan only has Sendejo as the backup safety, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a late round pick spent on a reserve safety. They took Marcus Epps with a 6th rounder last year, but he was poached away by the Eagles when the Vikings tried to get him to the practice squad.
Pick 6-Compensatory: C Matt Hennessey (I traded a 7th to move pick #7-2 into a late 6th rounder.)
I’ve noticed that there are several NFL centers who are late picks/UDFAs who are having successful careers, like Ryan Jensen, Austin Reiter, Chase Roullier, and Matt Skura. While the center job is not leaving the hands of Garrett Bradbury anytime soon, it wouldn’t hurt to draft a backup to him.
Pick 7-Compensatory: HB Jason Huntley
I’ll be totally honest – I just went to College Football Reference and sorted by players who have had the most kick return TDs and will be draft-eligible. Huntley, who hails from New Mexico State, returned 5 kicks for TDs in 59 tries in his 4 year career. He’s not projected to be drafted, so why not spend a late pick on him? It’s better than blowing the selection on a long snapper.
UDFA: Added P Blake Gillikin
Punters can be scooped up anywhere these days, as the Vikings’ last 3 punters have been free agent pickups on cheap deals. We don’t have much cap rook left, so I’ll opt to make a UDFA my starting punter.
UDFA: Added DE La'Darius Hamilton
The roster has room for another project D-lineman, so I'll take a flier on a small school player.
Alright, let’s see how the roster turned out!
Depth Chart
Final Cap Room: $4.4M (we saved more money by cutting some players like Gedeon and Holmes to get down to 53 players)
Questions You May Have About the Roster:
I thought you were going to fix the trenches, but you only added one new starter on the O-line?
That’s right. You might have expected to see LT Reiff get replaced, but left tackles. They were unlikely to find one with their 1st round pick, as usually the sure-fire LTs go early, and I’m not a fan of the free agent LTs this year (Anthony Castonzo, D.J. Humphries, Andrew Whitworth, and Jason Peters).
This plan hinges on Bradbury taking a big step up from his play as a rookie. As a 1st round pick, I couldn’t just give up on him, and it’s far too early to call him a bust and find a replacement. If he can step up and my rookie LG can play well out of the gate, the O-line will be one of the better units in the NFL.
Meanwhile, as for the D-line, I don’t have the depth I would like to, but I now have a top 10 pass rusher (per PFF) on the outside (Hunter) and on the inside (Collins). Odenigbo played 40% of the snaps and got 7 sacks last year, and while you can’t seriously project that forward, it’s clear he’s ready to roll with a bigger role. Shamar Stephen can slide over to the NT spot Joseph leaves open, which fits him far better than the 3 technique role he played last year. Add in Willekes, Watt, and Johnson as the rotational guys, and it should make for a strong group.
Are you really going to trust Mike Hughes with the #2 CB job?
Yes, I am. Spielman and Zimmer thought of Hughes highly enough to spend a 1st round pick on him, and while I didn’t like the pick, it’s time for him to come through and play up to his draft pick. I’ve already given a bunch of money to Fuller, Harris, and Alexander, so throwing any more money at the secondary would be irresponsible (that is, to pull money away from improving other positions). I am quite high on Holton Hill, so if Hughes gets hurt again or disappoints, Hill can step up and fill his spot.
Did you ruin the 2021 cap by making these moves?
Great question! Let’s do a quick analysis:
Total salaries in 2021: $178.2M
After releases: $130.5M
After re-signings and restructures: $167M
After free agents and draft picks: $196M
2020 Rollover: Approximately $3-5M
2021 Cap Room: Will probably be around $210M
2021 Cap Space: Very roughly $18M
So to answer your question… not quite. The big signings in my plan definitely shifted some money over into the 2021 season, but just like this year, some expensive veterans could be released to make more room (Rudolph can be released for an extra $5M, Barr for $8M, Reiff for around $7M, Diggs & Thielen make $30M together and could be traded for more room).
If you’re going to hit the reset button over the 2021 offseason, there will be plenty of players to trade away and the cap will open up. I’m also not concerned that the players with bigger deals – Fuller, Collins, Harris, and Alexander – will start regressing due to age anytime soon, as Harris the only one who’s getting paid into his 30s.
Alright, that’s enough for one article! What did you think? How would you manage the Vikings’ cap and put the 2020 roster together?
Anyways, here's the current cap situation for the Vikings:
Cap Room: -$12.84
Wow, we’ve went from $53M in 2018 to $6.3M in 2019, and now a negative double digit amount in 2020. Not good, but there will be moves that can be made to give this roster some flexibility.
Offseason Goals:
Get younger and focus on getting players who can help now and down the road. I may be the GM in control right now, but I am going to operate under the assumption that I’m going to have a job in 2021. This isn’t the time to get reckless and throw everything away to win now, but it’s also not time to trade a bunch of picks and move up into the top 10 to select a QB. If 2020 is to be the final year of the Spielman-Zimmer combo, then I want to make the roster prepared to rebound quickly to prevent several years of tanking.
So, without any further ado, let's get this party started!
Releases / Cuts
CB Xavier Rhodes (move saves $8.1M, leaves $4.8M of dead money)
Y’know, before I go into the negatives about Rhodes, I’d just like to mention that I’ve enjoyed most of Rhodes’ career as a Viking. I don’t hate the guy - I was a huge fan of his and was high on my wish list when he was selected. At his peak, he was a top CB who could lock on to most WRs and shut them down. Threats like Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones were neutralized in his wake.
But that was the past, and this is now. I remarked in last year’s offseason manifesto that Rhodes had a down year in 2018. Well, Rhodes redefined what a down year for him was in 2019. He’s clearly slow down due to age and injury, gave up play after play in coverage, consistently made dumb mistakes to draw penalties, and multiple times had communication issues that resulted in huge plays. He was far and away the defense’s biggest liability, and finding an upgrade would go a long way to improve this team.
DT Linval Joseph (move saves $10.49M, leaves $2.4M of dead money)
This was a hard move to make, as Linval has been the D-line’s anchor for several years now. Joseph’s contributions in the trenches established the Vikings’ defense being a top 10 unit year in and year out. But he’s 31 now, and has been steadily declining since 2017. I’m not risking finding out if he takes another step back in 2020.
His play in 2019 was above average, but by PFF’s grades, the worst in his career as a Viking (he set the bar pretty darn high though!). Joseph only missed 2 games due to injury, but the Vikings’ run defense had a masterful game against Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas in his absence. It makes sense to slide Shamar Stephen into his slot as the nose tackle, since Stephen is a solid run defender, but brings zero pass rush.
DE Everson Griffen voids his own deal (move saves $13.07M, leaves $800K in dead money)
Griffen’s contract is a bit of an odd one, allowing him to void his deal due to his high level of play in 2019. But why would he void the rest of his 3 year, $444M deal? It’s simple – there’s only $800K left guaranteed, meaning that the Vikings could cut him at any time and pocket the money. Instead, it’d be wise if Griffen cut his losses and headed to the FA market for a new deal. While it’s certainly possible the Vikings could work on a new deal with him, I’ll let him sign elsewhere.
Griffen’s play in 2019 was like his past seasons after a troublesome 2018. He’s going to turn 33 next year, and I’m pushing towards a youth movement, so I will opt to let Griffen go. It will be difficult to replace him.
Current cap room: $18.8M
Restructures
LT Riley Reiff – Drops cap hit to $7.22M, pushes $3.7M guaranteed to 2021. Move saves $5.98M of 2020 cap.
This restructure will act as a small pay cut and push some of Reiff’s unguaranteed money to 2021. Instead of receiving a $10.9M salary in 2021, his salary will be cut to the minimum, but he will receive a prorated bonus of $9.4M. Reiff will basically make a bit less money in 2020, but will get more total money thanks to guaranteeing some of his 2021 salary.
At the moment, the Vikings don’t have a replacement ready at LT, which is one of the hardest positions to fill in the NFL. The only real possibility I see outside of trading for Trent Williams would be to move RT O’Neill there, but I’d rather keep him at his current position. Reiff is a average LT who is starting to age and is rather expensive, so this will likely be his last year as a Viking.
FS Harrison Smith – Drops cap hit to $7.047M, pushes $3.9M to 2021. Move saves $3.7 of 2020 cap.
This restructure will not act as a pay cut. Smith will receive a $7.85M bonus that will be split between 2020 and 2021. We will have plenty of money to spend in 2021, so I think moving about $8M there with these two restructures is fine enough, and will not mortgage the future.
Smith is still playing on a very high level, but it’s possible 2020 will be his last year as a Viking. I’m not ready to move on quite yet.
WR Stefon Diggs – Drops cap hit to $10.5M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap.
This is a rather minor restructure, and like Smith’s, not a pay cut. The move turns $4M of Diggs’ base 2020 salary and guarantees it, giving it to him up front. This causes $1M to be added to each of the 4 years of his deal, which is good for him as he only has $9M guaranteed left on his deal. He will be a potential trade chip for the 2021 offseason, but I’m not going to move on from him now – the offense would suffer greatly without him.
LB Eric Kendricks – Drops cap hit to $7.014M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap.
I didn’t want to make this many restructures, but unfortunately, here we are. This is the exact same as Diggs’ restructure. Kendricks will now make $12M in 2021 and $13M in 2022, which are reasonable with the elite level of play he held in 2019.
Current cap room: $34.5M
Extensions to Players Under Contract
None
Yeah, that’s right! I am not giving extensions to anyone who is under contract, which mainly includes Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook. I am by no means anti-Cousins, but I have no interest paying him over $30M a year to be our QB. Kirk gives the Vikings fringe top 10 QB play and has shown that he is capable of winning a tough playoff game, but I’m also concerned that Cousins is stuck at Alex Smith level. Smith is a fine QB, but the Chiefs never had the ability to get over the hump until they went ahead and drafted Pat Mahomes. Cousins is a fine QB to have in the meantime, but preparations should be made to look to improve his position.
Cook, on the other hand, is an easy “no” for an extension. He can’t stay healthy, nearly all of the best HBs in the NFL are currently on their rookie deals, and the Vikings should focus on throwing money at other positions than HB. They already have capable backups in Mattison and Boone, and you can put most any HB out there and they’ll do a fine job if you provide the blocking. I don’t fear a Cook holdout in 2020, but he likely would if he gets the franchise tag slapped on him in 2021. I also don’t feel the need to trade him now, but they could try a tag-and-trade over the 2021 season. As for now, I’ll head into 2020 with Cook as my primary running back.
Re-signing Our Free Agents
FS Anthony Harris – 4 years, $55M
Now with contracts laid out!
I went back and forth on extending Harris. In one sense, paying two safeties $10M+ a year is not a wise way to allocate your cap. Safety is also the deepest position in the NFL, and many talented players can be had for cheap (I was targeting FS Tre Boston as a cheap replacement).
However, Harris is currently one of the best players in the NFL. He is a playmaker, picking off 7 passes this season (including postseason). That makes 10 interceptions in his past 25 starts! While I planned on allocating money to the trenches, I simply couldn’t justify letting Harris go. Harrison Smith isn’t going to be around forever, and the Vikings defense needs more players who can generate turnovers.
CB Mackensie Alexander – 4 years, $32M
I also went back and forth on Alexander, but I’ve opted to give him a new deal, as he fits my plan of going young. Once Alexander was able to get ahold of the starting nickel job in 2018, he’s been a good but not great pass defender who has outplayed Rhodes and Waynes each of the past two seasons. 2020 will be just his third season in the starting lineup, so you’d hope he could continue to improve his game.
OLB Eric Wilson – Original Round Tender - $2.144M
Wilson jumped Ben Gedeon on the depth chart as he became a “starter” as the third linebacker to Kendricks and Barr. Of course, I say that with quotation marks because the Vikings only use a 3rd LB about 25% of the time. He’s a quality player and deserves to be re-signed, though it’s possible another team could swoop in and bid for him since he’s a restricted free agent.
FB C.J. Ham – Extend on a 3 year, $6M deal
Instead of tendering Ham and giving him $2.144M like Wilson, I’ve opted to give Ham a small deal that will make him the 4th highest paid FB in the league… no, seriously. Only two FBs in the league make over $3M a year, so Ham should be able to be retained for an amount this small.
K Dan Bailey – 2 year, $4M deal
I’ll tell you what, I did not imagine I’d be writing this back in the 2019 preseason when the Vikings traded a 5th rounder to get Kaare Vedvik. Bailey suffered from horrible accuracy during training camp, yet rebounded and had a very strong regular season. It seemed his poor 2018 season would have signaled the end for him, but he responded by suddenly turning back into his old self when he was a Cowboy. I would make sure to get him back, especially since our efforts in finding a new kicker are likely to end in failure.
SS Andrew Sendejo – 1 year, $900K
Sendejo was willing to sign a 1 year $860K deal with the Eagles last offseason, so perhaps he would make a bit more to return as a backup. Sendejo wasn’t bad with the Eagles (though he did give one of his own players a severe concussion) and was a quality backup for the Vikings, coming up with a big interception in the Broncos game and playing an entire game at nickel CB against the Saints and holding his own. Safeties are a dime a dozen these days, so it shouldn’t take much to get him back.
Players Being Let Go
CB Trae Waynes
Always more name than game, it took a full two seasons of learning on the bench and rotating with Terence Newman to get Waynes into the starting lineup… and the former 11th overall pick turned into an unspectacular #2 CB. Trae can take on most team’s secondary and tertiary receivers and do just fine, but when he goes up against a team’s team option, he simply can’t do it. He’s got speed like few other CBs, but his ball skills are so poor, his speed is put to poor use again and again. He will likely sign a multi-year deal that will pay him far more than he’s worth.
S Jayron Kearse
The Vikings might actually end up missing Kearse more than you’d expect. When he was in the lineup, Kearse was a strong run defender and had very strong coverage grades when he got the chance. Unfortunately, the Vikings rarely ever gave him the chance to see the field over his 4 year career in Minnesota, so other teams will be signing him for his potential. Add in a boneheaded DUI that will likely earn him a 4 game suspension to start the 2020 season, and he will likely be had for cheap.
P Britton Colquitt
I originally opted to keep Colquitt with a 2 year deal, but the market for punters is paying more than I would like to give with the cap that’s already bursting at the seams. I was surprised to learn that 15 NFL punters make over $2M a year, meaning that Colquitt will require at that much. The Vikings have shown that they can bounce between Quigley/Wile/Colquitt while getting average at worst performances from them, so I’d rather go to the drawing board with a UDFA punter
TE David Morgan
Morgan was a quality run-blocking TE for the Vikes from 2016-18, but a knee problem from 2018 cost his entire 2019 season. I liked what I saw from UDFA TE Brandon Dillon, so I will move on to the younger, cheaper, and healthier option.
(update: apparently Morgan’s contract tolled over into 2020, which means I save $745K by cutting him. I get a tiny bit more cap to play with! Hooray!)
T Rashod Hill
Hill might command a bit of money after starting 16 games the past 3 years – though, he should end up as a high-end swing tackle, and not a starter. The Vikings tried to start the 2018 season with him as their RT, and it did not work out at all. He will already be 28 in 2020, and I will fill his spot with a rookie.
DE Stephen Weatherly
The former 7th rounder put himself on the map with a solid 6 game replacement of Everson Griffen during the 2018 season. The Vikings rewarded him with a larger role in 2019, but you could hardly tell, as he basically disappeared from sight. Weatherly’s play was among the league’s worst pass rushers, so I’m unsure if the Vikings should ask him to return. He could be a guy who returns at a cheap price when he discovers that other teams aren’t interested in paying him.
C Brett Jones
Jones is a fine backup center, but I’d rather develop my own long term interior O-line backup.
WR Laquon Treadwell
LOL bye!
G Dakota Dozier
Dozier was a 90 man roster add who signed a deal near the league minimum, but was able to win the backup guard/center role and ended up starting 4 games. He did not look good (though it was against the Packers, Bears, Eagles, and Broncos, so tough competition there) and I don’t want him back next year.
HB Ameer Abdullah
Functioning as the backup 3rd down HB and kick returner, I think I can find an easy replacement to Abdullah late in the draft, or even a UDFA. He’s fine at what he does and could return at the veteran minimum, if needed.
QB Sean Mannion
I have no interest in retaining one of the league’s worst backup QBs. It’s nice that Cousins is so durable, but I’d still like to find a better option. I’m still salty from the whole Sloter situation.
CB Marcus Sherels
Poor Marcus. I was right to leave him out of my plans in last year’s article, but Sherels ended up getting cut 3 different times in 2019, and had 2 stints with the Vikings, ending with a muffed punt in the divisional matchup against the 49ers. Sherels should retire.
LB Kentrell Brothers
Brothers is a fine special teams LB, but no longer has the upside to crack the starting lineup. His start against the Bears Week 17 was his first career start, and quite possibly his last. I’d be fine bringing him back at the veteran minimum.
Trades
Vikings send G/C Pat Elflein and a compensatory 7th round pick to the Bengals for their 6th round pick.
With one year left on his deal, Pat Elflein could make for a nice reclamation project with another team. He’s not a fit in the Vikings zone blocking system, and would have a decent chance at cracking Cincinnati’s starting lineup. This move saves a bit of cap, and I won’t have a hard time finding a backup guard/center.
Current cap room: $17.85M
Free Agency
Sign CB Kendall Fuller to a 4 year, $36M deal.
The younger brother of Bears CB Kyle Fuller, Kendall started out as the Redskins nickel CB in 2017 before getting sent to Kansas City in the Alex Smith trade. He had standout 2017 and 2018 seasons, and became a full-time starter with the Chiefs after they pulled off the trade. However, his 2019 had him miss 5 games due to injury and his quality of play dipped. I think this is a great opportunity to sign a young (only 25 in 2020!) CB who has the potential to be a long term option. He may not be the shutdown #1 CB that the Vikings could use, but Fuller can function as an outside CB on 2 WR sets and usually shifts to the nickel in 3+ WR sets, so it’s not like he’s locked into being a nickel CB.
The Vikings absolutely need to come away with at least 1 veteran CB who can hold his own, and while it will be hard to bid for the big fish in the free agent market, Fuller would be a great second tier grab.
Sign DT Maliek Collins to a 5 year, $56M deal.
This will be the only other major splash the Vikings will make in the free agent market. The Vikings D-line sorely lacked a 3T DT to add some interior rush, and Collins will give them that push. PFF had him as a top 10 interior pass rusher, and while he only provided 4 sacks for the Cowboys last season, it’s all about the pressures. He’s also not a pushover against the run. I expect Collins’ price tag to reach into the $11-12M per year range, but it’s possible the price goes higher than this. If they can’t land a player of Collins’ caliber in free agency, they should look to find that guy with their 1st round pick.
Sign WR Tajae Sharpe to a 1 year, $3.5M deal.
This wouldn’t be a Day 1 deal, but it would make for a solid acquisition of a WR who could fill the #3 role. The former 5th rounder started his career as the Titans’ #2 WR, but bounced between the fringe of the roster and starting again throughout his 4 year career. Sharpe could make for a good fit as an outside receiver with Diggs/Thielen in the slot and the other as the opposite outside receiver. He’s not going to be anything special, but he’d give you way more production than Treadwell could in that same role.
Sign OLB Bryce Hager to a 1 year, $900K deal.
The former Ram has been a gritty special teams contributor, but has never gotten the chance to seize a starting role for LA. The Vikings could use a backup to Kendricks/Barr/Wilson with just Cameron Smith left on the roster (I don't have Gedeon making the team). This would likely be a post-draft signing.
Current cap room: $3.2M
Draft Picks
Pick 1-25: G Shane Lemieux
I don’t know this year’s draft class all that well, so please understand that the positions are more important than the actual players here. I opted not to go after a guard in free agency to fill Elflein’s spot, but I fully intend to find a top-notch option. Since I will be returning Reiff, O’Neill, Bradbury, and Kline, I can’t afford to go cheap on the 5th spot. If we could get a big rookie season from an interior offensive lineman, it should give Cousins more time to throw and a better chance of hanging with tougher pass rushes.
Pick 2-25: DE Kenny Willekes
More picks to bolster the trench! Right now my DE depth chart is Hunter, Odenigbo… and not much else. Even if Willekes ends up as a rotational body behind Odenigbo, we need more talent in the D-line rotation. Willekes has a high motor and picked up 10.5 sacks for Michigan State in 2019, and would hopefully end up as another success story for D-line coach / co-DC Andre Patterson.
Pick 3-25: QB Jalen Hurts
You probably could have seen this one coming since I refused to give Cousins an extension. It’s time the Vikings started taking some shots at QBs, even if they are likely to be low-percentage ones. I understand that many are hesitant to let Spielman try to draft another QB, but I think that’s a poor reason to never attempt it again. Hurts has the upside to be a mobile QB with a decent arm, but needs to work on his vision and decision-making process. I’d rather hand the 2021 Vikings Hurts + a cheap veteran than giving Cousins a new $30M+ a year deal.
Pick 4-25: T Jack Driscoll
I’m taking a similar approach Spielman did to the 2019 draft – go O-line with the 1st and 4th round picks. I’ve already stated that this is likely to be Reiff’s last year as a Viking, we could use a depth pick to develop another tackle alongside Oli Udoh. Driscoll had a good year as Auburn’s RT, but needs to build strength (only 296 lbs). Perhaps O’Neill could move to LT in 2021 and Driscoll could take over the RT spot then too.
Pick 4-Compensatory: CB Troy Pride Jr.
Zimmer has a notorious disdain for using rookie CBs, so I’d rather see the Vikes select them later in the draft. Pride Jr. can sit behind Fuller, Hughes, Alexander, and Hill and develop for the future.
Pick 6-14: OLB Kamal Martin (acquired in trade with TB)
Late round LBs are what Rick Spielman lives for. He can make up for not drafting Gophers LB Blake Cashman last year and scoop up another U of M alum in Martin.
Pick 6-25: S Jaylinn Hawkins
Now we’re getting deep in the weeds. My plan only has Sendejo as the backup safety, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a late round pick spent on a reserve safety. They took Marcus Epps with a 6th rounder last year, but he was poached away by the Eagles when the Vikings tried to get him to the practice squad.
Pick 6-Compensatory: C Matt Hennessey (I traded a 7th to move pick #7-2 into a late 6th rounder.)
I’ve noticed that there are several NFL centers who are late picks/UDFAs who are having successful careers, like Ryan Jensen, Austin Reiter, Chase Roullier, and Matt Skura. While the center job is not leaving the hands of Garrett Bradbury anytime soon, it wouldn’t hurt to draft a backup to him.
Pick 7-Compensatory: HB Jason Huntley
I’ll be totally honest – I just went to College Football Reference and sorted by players who have had the most kick return TDs and will be draft-eligible. Huntley, who hails from New Mexico State, returned 5 kicks for TDs in 59 tries in his 4 year career. He’s not projected to be drafted, so why not spend a late pick on him? It’s better than blowing the selection on a long snapper.
UDFA: Added P Blake Gillikin
Punters can be scooped up anywhere these days, as the Vikings’ last 3 punters have been free agent pickups on cheap deals. We don’t have much cap rook left, so I’ll opt to make a UDFA my starting punter.
UDFA: Added DE La'Darius Hamilton
The roster has room for another project D-lineman, so I'll take a flier on a small school player.
Alright, let’s see how the roster turned out!
Depth Chart
Final Cap Room: $4.4M (we saved more money by cutting some players like Gedeon and Holmes to get down to 53 players)
Questions You May Have About the Roster:
I thought you were going to fix the trenches, but you only added one new starter on the O-line?
That’s right. You might have expected to see LT Reiff get replaced, but left tackles. They were unlikely to find one with their 1st round pick, as usually the sure-fire LTs go early, and I’m not a fan of the free agent LTs this year (Anthony Castonzo, D.J. Humphries, Andrew Whitworth, and Jason Peters).
This plan hinges on Bradbury taking a big step up from his play as a rookie. As a 1st round pick, I couldn’t just give up on him, and it’s far too early to call him a bust and find a replacement. If he can step up and my rookie LG can play well out of the gate, the O-line will be one of the better units in the NFL.
Meanwhile, as for the D-line, I don’t have the depth I would like to, but I now have a top 10 pass rusher (per PFF) on the outside (Hunter) and on the inside (Collins). Odenigbo played 40% of the snaps and got 7 sacks last year, and while you can’t seriously project that forward, it’s clear he’s ready to roll with a bigger role. Shamar Stephen can slide over to the NT spot Joseph leaves open, which fits him far better than the 3 technique role he played last year. Add in Willekes, Watt, and Johnson as the rotational guys, and it should make for a strong group.
Are you really going to trust Mike Hughes with the #2 CB job?
Yes, I am. Spielman and Zimmer thought of Hughes highly enough to spend a 1st round pick on him, and while I didn’t like the pick, it’s time for him to come through and play up to his draft pick. I’ve already given a bunch of money to Fuller, Harris, and Alexander, so throwing any more money at the secondary would be irresponsible (that is, to pull money away from improving other positions). I am quite high on Holton Hill, so if Hughes gets hurt again or disappoints, Hill can step up and fill his spot.
Did you ruin the 2021 cap by making these moves?
Great question! Let’s do a quick analysis:
Total salaries in 2021: $178.2M
After releases: $130.5M
After re-signings and restructures: $167M
After free agents and draft picks: $196M
2020 Rollover: Approximately $3-5M
2021 Cap Room: Will probably be around $210M
2021 Cap Space: Very roughly $18M
So to answer your question… not quite. The big signings in my plan definitely shifted some money over into the 2021 season, but just like this year, some expensive veterans could be released to make more room (Rudolph can be released for an extra $5M, Barr for $8M, Reiff for around $7M, Diggs & Thielen make $30M together and could be traded for more room).
If you’re going to hit the reset button over the 2021 offseason, there will be plenty of players to trade away and the cap will open up. I’m also not concerned that the players with bigger deals – Fuller, Collins, Harris, and Alexander – will start regressing due to age anytime soon, as Harris the only one who’s getting paid into his 30s.
Alright, that’s enough for one article! What did you think? How would you manage the Vikings’ cap and put the 2020 roster together?
... and neither is this Chris guy.