Trade Diggs?

First up? How Diggs fits into the 2020 Vikings’ plan, ie, the “Kubiak Offense”. As alluded to above, a few people have raised the question as to whether or not having two elite receivers in a system that isn’t necessarily predicated on utilizing wide receivers as much as tight ends and running backs. So, let’s take a look at some of the teams/offenses that Gary Kubiak has helmed and whether or not that holds any water.

In 2015, the first year that Kubiak coached the Broncos, their top two receivers were Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Those two receivers had nearly 2,400 yards between them, with Demaryius Thomas had 105 catches for 1,304 yards and 6 touchdowns and Sanders had 76 grabs for 1,135 yards, six touchdowns (and three rushes for 29 yards).

That hardly sounds like a team that didn’t utilize its receivers. Their main tight end that year was Owen Daniels who had 46 catches for 517 yards and three touchdowns. Perhaps that year was an aberration, though, as they did have Peyton Manning slinging the rock (the year before his injuries caught up to him, anyway).

Instead, let’s take a look at his time as an offensive coordinator in the single-season he was with the Baltimore Ravens. Joe Flacco’s top two receivers were the then ageless Steve Smith and Torrey Smith (as well as Owen Daniels helming the tight end spot, again). Smith and… Smith combined for over 1,820 yards with a healthy 15.7 and 13.5 yards per grab, respectively. In addition, they had 17 touchdowns between them (with Torrey Smith having 11 of them himself).

Owen Daniels? He had four touchdowns and, yet again, 527 yards from 48 grabs, whereas the Smiths had 128 grabs between them.

The Ravens’ other tight ends, Dennis Pitta and Crockett Gilmore, combined for 26 grabs (hardly this two tight end onslaught we’re being told to expect). Now, the Vikings do have two great pass-catching tight ends in Kyle Rudolph and soon-to-be second-year emerging star, Irv Smith Jr., but to expect them to create the type of numbers or even advantages in this Vikings offense is laughable considering the fact that Diggs is arguably the best down-the-field receiver in the NFL.

This is all supported by data from an amazing article by Joe Mahoney over at the MileHighReport.com.

First, let’s take a look at the breakdown from Kubiak’s entire career, of throws to wide receivers, tight ends, running backs and full-backs.



See?

For a quick reference, the 2019 Vikings passed the ball to receivers 47% of the time, tight ends 28% of the time and running backs 24% of the time. So, Kubiak actually targeted receivers more on average in his career than Stefanski did last season, and you’re telling me you didn’t want to have both Diggs and Thielen last year? But you’d be okay losing him and throwing the ball to the position 8% more in 2020? Yeah. No.

Before you say that it’s because they ran the ball a lot, on average Kubiak’s offenses have run the ball 47% of the time. In fact, Kubiak’s offenses have only carried the ball over 50% of the time in five of over TWENTY seasons and while the NFL seems to be moving away from the type of schemes that Kubiak employs (relying more on 11-personnel/three-receiver sets), the reality is that Kubiak’s teams still pass more than throw, and way more often-than-not would throw to the receiver position AND (spoiler alert), they mainly throw to their top two receivers (I know that all of this sounds obvious, but apparently it isn’t, as people are writing stuff like this).

Let’s take a look at the breakdown within the wide receiver group specifically, seeing just how important the top two receivers are in Kubiak’s system (keep in mind that the majority of these seasons also didn’t have anywhere near the quality of receiving talent that the Vikings currently have in Diggs and Thielen, save for 2015, which had nearly 70% of its targets going towards Thomas and Sanders). Just in case you’re not sold…

Diggs is due to make $10.9 million in salary this year, and trading him would clear only $5.5 million in cap room.

There was reason to believe that was something Diggs wanted recently when he cleared his social media of any references to the Vikings, but the Vikings don’t seem eager to move him.

Then again, Spielman also is the guy who said they had “no intent” to trade Percy Harvin, before trading Percy Harvin.