Is it as bad as it seems?

Reignman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 20, 2014 7:24:01 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Dec 20, 2014 7:24:01 GMT -6

There were a few things that the Vikings seemed to have a nasty habit of doing this year, so I did the research to see if my pessimism was warranted.

How often do the Vikings run on 3rd and 10+ yards to go?

It's not as high as I thought, but it's still tied for 3rd highest in the league. It doesn't include QB runs (scrambles) as most of those were generally intended to be a pass. This is strictly about the quitter play, the RB draw. And what did I learn? On 10 quitter plays this year the Vikings converted 0 first downs. No surprise there, but when we actually tried on 3rd n long, we converted 11 of 48 (22.9%). And nobody gives up quite as often as Houston xD.

                    1ST  1ST/D  PASS  RB   QB      QUITTER
TEAM         PLAYS DOWNS  PCT  PLAYS RUNS SCRM SACK  PCT
Houston         44    7   15.9   30   12    2    1  27.27
New England     53   14   26.4   40   10    3    2  18.87
St. Louis       62   12   19.4   51   11    0    7  17.74
Minnesota       58   11   19.0   42   10    6    5  17.24 (Asiata 5 for 5.6ypc, McKinnon 3 for 6.3ypc, Tate 1 for 3yds, Peterson 1 for 1yd)
N.Y. Giants     57   15   26.3   48    8    1    4  14.04
Denver          52   10   19.2   42    6    4    1  11.54
Tennessee       57    7   12.3   50    6    1    5  10.53
Seattle         59   12   20.3   44    6    9    7  10.17
Philadelphia    61   18   29.5   52    6    3    3   9.84
N.Y. Jets       51    9   17.6   40    5    6    2   9.80
Cincinnati      53    7   13.2   47    5    1    3   9.43
Dallas          44   11   25.0   35    4    5    4   9.09
Baltimore       48   13   27.1   42    4    2    3   8.33
Tampa Bay       68   14   20.6   58    5    5    9   7.35
Cleveland       56   11   19.6   51    3    2    2   5.36
Washington      58    4    6.9   50    3    5   10   5.17
Buffalo         58    9   15.5   51    3    4    6   5.17
San Francisco   67   14   20.9   55    3    9   10   4.48
New Orleans     46   14   30.4   44    2    0    2   4.35
Indianapolis    48   11   22.9   38    2    8    2   4.17
Miami           48    5   10.4   43    2    3    3   4.17
San Diego       49   17   34.7   43    2    4    1   4.08
Chicago         55   10   18.2   48    2    5    5   3.64
Carolina        60   13   21.7   54    2    4    6   3.33
Arizona         71   18   25.4   64    2    5    4   2.82
Atlanta         45   12   26.7   43    1    1    4   2.22
Kansas City     47   14   29.8   42    1    4    5   2.13
Oakland         47    4    8.5   44    1    2    2   2.13
Jacksonville    62    8   12.9   60    1    1   13   1.61
Detroit         65   15   23.1   61    1    3    5   1.54
Green Bay       47   17   36.2   41    0    6    7   0.00
Pittsburgh      45   11   24.4   41    0    4    7   0.00

Do the Vikings lead the league in receptions that lose yards?

Not quite, but we're up there. Again not as high at it would seem at the rate Checkdown Teddy was going. I would have sworn we had 11 vs the Bears alone. I wish I could filter out screen plays and just see checkdowns that result in a loss. I bet we're leading the league in that category as I'm sure most of these teams were trying to run screens.

Buffalo         14
Oakland         14
Jacksonville    14
San Diego       13
Minnesota       11 (McKinnon 6, Asiata 2, Wright 2, Ellison 1)
Baltimore       11
New Orleans     10
Arizona         10
Miami           10
Kansas City     10
Indianapolis     9
Detroit          9
Philadelphia     9
Pittsburgh       9
Chicago          8
Houston          8
Seattle          8
Tennessee        8
Washington       8
Cincinnati       8
New England      8
Cleveland        7
Green Bay        6
St. Louis        6
Dallas           5
N.Y. Giants      5
N.Y. Jets        5
Atlanta          5
Carolina         5
Denver           5
San Francisco    3
Tampa Bay        3

Does every 10+ yard punt return by Sherels get called back by a penalty?

Again not as often as it would seem because I would have sworn it was EVERY! DAMN! TIME! But an awful lot of them do get called back. 7 out of 17 in fact (41.2%). Clean this crap up Priefer, and put Exum on an island and nuke it until he stops committing penalties.

vs NEP 35-M.Sherels 11 yards
at N.O 35-M.Sherels 13 yards
at N.O 35-M.Sherels 27 yards PENALTY on MIN-21-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist
vs ATL 35-M.Sherels 15 yards
vs ATL 35-M.Sherels 24 yards
at G.B 35-M.Sherels 11 yards PENALTY on MIN-32-A.Exum, Illegal Blindside Block
vs DET 35-M.Sherels 16 yards PENALTY on MIN-32-A.Exum, Offensive Holding
vs DET 35-M.Sherels 12 yards
vs DET 35-M.Sherels 14 yards PENALTY on MIN-27-S.Prater, Offensive Holding, offsetting (fumble)
at BUF 35-M.Sherels 11 yards
at BUF 35-M.Sherels 12 yards
at T.B 35-M.Sherels 42 yards PENALTY on MIN-39-J.Price, Offensive Holding
at T.B 35-M.Sherels 11 yards PENALTY on MIN-32-A.Exum, Offensive Holding
vs CAR 35-M.Sherels 26 yards
vs CAR 35-M.Sherels 19 yards
vs NYJ 35-M.Sherels 18 yards PENALTY on MIN-57-A.Cole, Illegal Block Above the Waist
at DET 35-M.Sherels 35 yards

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 20, 2014 7:49:23 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2014 7:49:23 GMT -6 Interesting!

Minniman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 20, 2014 10:01:38 GMT -6

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Post by Minniman on Dec 20, 2014 10:01:38 GMT -6

Dec 20, 2014 7:24:01 GMT -6 Reignman said:

There were a few things that the Vikings seemed to have a nasty habit of doing this year, so I did the research to see if my pessimism was warranted.

How often do the Vikings run on 3rd and 10+ yards to go?

It's not as high as I thought, but it's still tied for 3rd highest in the league. It doesn't include QB runs (scrambles) as most of those were generally intended to be a pass. This is strictly about the quitter play, the RB draw. And what did I learn? On 10 quitter plays this year the Vikings converted 0 first downs. No surprise there, but when we actually tried on 3rd n long, we converted 11 of 48 (22.9%). And nobody gives up quite as often as Houston xD.

This is not a quitter play when run sparingly, but being run often, it basically tells the offense that the coaching staff has no faith and fears the interception. That is playing not to lose.

Do the Vikings lead the league in receptions that lose yards?

Not quite, but we're up there. Again not as high at it would seem at the rate Checkdown Teddy was going. I would have sworn we had 11 vs the Bears alone. I wish I could filter out screen plays and just see checkdowns that result in a loss. I bet we're leading the league in that category as I'm sure most of these teams were trying to run screens.

Note that the Vikings are high in both catagories. No other team has the such combined futility. Not only that, the Vikings throw many short passes that are just beyond the LOS that have little chance of converting for the first down.

Does every 10+ yard punt return by Sherels get called back by a penalty?

Again not as often as it would seem because I would have sworn it was EVERY! DAMN! TIME! But an awful lot of them do get called back. 7 out of 17 in fact (41.2%). Clean this crap up Priefer, and put Exum on an island and nuke it until he stops committing penalties.

These blocks can be called on most returns. On the PPO, a post was made showing the Packers' receiver Randall Cobb going all the way for a TD on his first return. I pointed out three flags that could have been thrown that were not - two of which were more than obvious and at the point of attack. If that had been the Vikings in Minnesota rather than the Packers at Green Bay, there is no doubt the turf would have been filled with yellow ghost puppets thrown by the men in convict clothing.

Here is the link to that topic:

PPO Topic

Last Edit: Dec 20, 2014 10:02:37 GMT -6 by Minniman: crafted in leather

Logic is the beginning of wisdom - not the end.

Mothman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 20, 2014 15:16:45 GMT -6

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Post by Mothman on Dec 20, 2014 15:16:45 GMT -6

Dec 20, 2014 10:01:38 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Sometimes such runs are reasonable given the situation so while it still seems like the Vikes do it too much, I'd be curious to know how often they ran it on 3rd and 10+ deep in their own territory, for example, just to minimize risk of a game-changing turnover and to give Locke a little more room.

Reignman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 5:28:19 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Dec 21, 2014 5:28:19 GMT -6

Dec 20, 2014 10:01:38 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Note that the Vikings are high in both catagories. No other team has the such combined futility. Not only that, the Vikings throw many short passes that are just beyond the LOS that have little chance of converting for the first down.

And that fact didn't escape me either. It helps explain our inept offense at times this year.

I suppose one could just look at how often a team completes a pass on 3rd down and doesn't convert. And that would look like this. Again Minnesota is high on the list. You will also notice, Green Bay is always near the bottom of these lists.

Tennessee       35
Washington      32
Jacksonville    31
Oakland         31
Cincinnati      30
Minnesota       29
Chicago         29
Buffalo         28
Detroit         28
Cleveland       27
Houston         26
N.Y. Giants     26
Denver          25
Seattle         25
Baltimore       23
Miami           23
N.Y. Jets       23
San Diego       22
Carolina        21
Kansas City     21
New Orleans     21
Philadelphia    21
Pittsburgh      21
St. Louis       21
New England     20
San Francisco   20
Arizona         18
Atlanta         18
Indianapolis    17
Dallas          15
Tampa Bay       14
Green Bay       13

Dec 20, 2014 15:16:45 GMT -6 Mothman said:

Sometimes such runs are reasonable given the situation so while it still seems like the Vikes do it too much, I'd be curious to know how often they ran it on 3rd and 10+ deep in their own territory, for example, just to minimize risk of a game-changing turnover and to give Locke a little more room.

I agree with both of you. Sometimes a draw on 3rd and long can help swing the field position, and I'm sure that's always the intent, but we're not even very good at that. On the other hand, our opponents seem quite effective at picking up a lot of junk yards on us on 3rd n long. If we don't give up the 1st altogether, we seem to give up 90% of the to go yardage before we make a stop. In other words, screens and draws seem to work well against us, but not well for us.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman Purple Pain Lap Dog Posts: 44,617 Likes: 30,514 Fan Since: 1984	Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 5:30:16 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Reignman on Dec 21, 2014 5:30:16 GMT -6 And if anyone wants to play along. Pro Football Reference has a nifty little tool that I like to use to help me research this stuff. www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi
	Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said: if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Mothman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 7:31:02 GMT -6

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Post by Mothman on Dec 21, 2014 7:31:02 GMT -6

Dec 21, 2014 5:30:16 GMT -6 Reignman said:

And if anyone wants to play along. Pro Football Reference has a nifty little tool that I like to use to help me research this stuff.

www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi

Thanks! I was about to ask how you were compiling those stats. Thanks for doing it, by the way.

For some reason, the "pass on 3rd down that doesn't convert" stat bothers me even more than the others. That's an indication of futility and questionable playcalling if I've ever seen one. The Vikes have a lot of work to do on offense between now and next season.

Reignman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 8:46:36 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Dec 21, 2014 8:46:36 GMT -6

Dec 21, 2014 7:31:02 GMT -6 Mothman said:

Dec 21, 2014 5:30:16 GMT -6 Reignman said:

And if anyone wants to play along. Pro Football Reference has a nifty little tool that I like to use to help me research this stuff.

www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi

Thanks! I was about to ask how you were compiling those stats. Thanks for doing it, by the way.

For some reason, the "pass on 3rd down that doesn't convert" stat bothers me even more than the others. That's an indication of futility and questionable playcalling if I've ever seen one. The Vikes have a lot of work to do on offense between now and next season.

To be honest I think it's more on Teddy than Norv. I find it hard to believe any OC would call a checkdown as the primary target, especially on 3rd down lol. With Ponder it seemed like his instinct was to run when his 1st read wasn't there, with Teddy he seems to start looking for that checkdown if the 1st read isn't there. I guess we have to wait until the game starts slowing down for him before we see fewer and fewer checkdowns. However I give Norv some of the blame for positioning a checkdown behind the LOS on so many plays. That I'll never understand. The QB should be throwing the ball away if his only option is a receiver behind the LOS.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Dynalee10
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 10:29:59 GMT -6

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Post by Dynalee10 on Dec 21, 2014 10:29:59 GMT -6

Dec 21, 2014 8:46:36 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Dec 21, 2014 7:31:02 GMT -6 Mothman said:

Thanks! I was about to ask how you were compiling those stats. Thanks for doing it, by the way.

For some reason, the "pass on 3rd down that doesn't convert" stat bothers me even more than the others. That's an indication of futility and questionable playcalling if I've ever seen one. The Vikes have a lot of work to do on offense between now and next season.

To be honest I think it's more on Teddy than Norv. I find it hard to believe any OC would call a checkdown as the primary target, especially on 3rd down lol. With Ponder it seemed like his instinct was to run when his 1st read wasn't there, with Teddy he seems to start looking for that checkdown if the 1st read isn't there. I guess we have to wait until the game starts slowing down for him before we see fewer and fewer checkdowns. However I give Norv some of the blame for positioning a checkdown behind the LOS on so many plays. That I'll never understand. The QB should be throwing the ball away if his only option is a receiver behind the LOS.

I think this take is spot on !

HunterMorrow
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 11:18:40 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by HunterMorrow on Dec 21, 2014 11:18:40 GMT -6

29 completed passes on third down alone that don't convert is ridiculous. This team never saw a first down marker it didn't want to spend 90 percent of a game in front of. Pass plays for 2 yards to our third string RBs and TEs that get immediately blown up are outrageously bad and common. "Pass to Asiata" for like, 2 yards gets called 4 times a game!

"We're so average and content. It sucks"-Cris Carter

Minniman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 21, 2014 18:40:50 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Minniman on Dec 21, 2014 18:40:50 GMT -6

Dec 21, 2014 8:46:36 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Dec 21, 2014 7:31:02 GMT -6 Mothman said:

Thanks! I was about to ask how you were compiling those stats. Thanks for doing it, by the way.

For some reason, the "pass on 3rd down that doesn't convert" stat bothers me even more than the others. That's an indication of futility and questionable playcalling if I've ever seen one. The Vikes have a lot of work to do on offense between now and next season.

To be honest I think it's more on Teddy than Norv. I find it hard to believe any OC would call a checkdown as the primary target, especially on 3rd down lol. With Ponder it seemed like his instinct was to run when his 1st read wasn't there, with Teddy he seems to start looking for that checkdown if the 1st read isn't there. I guess we have to wait until the game starts slowing down for him before we see fewer and fewer checkdowns. However I give Norv some of the blame for positioning a checkdown behind the LOS on so many plays. That I'll never understand. The QB should be throwing the ball away if his only option is a receiver behind the LOS.

It is Teddy, but it is also Norv. Turner does not design plays with enough pass protection to allow many comfortable deep throws. Teddy could not check down to a back that is busy blocking. He cannot make a two yard pass to a crossing tight end that is protecting the end. He cannot throw a seven yard pass to a receiver coming back on a hitch on 3rd and 10 if the receiver runs a route that is at least 12 yards deep.

Of course, some of it is just poor blocking. Five on four should allow Bridgewater some time to throw much more often than it does.

Logic is the beginning of wisdom - not the end.

TNVikesfan
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 23, 2014 10:17:49 GMT -6

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Post by TNVikesfan on Dec 23, 2014 10:17:49 GMT -6

I really would have thought it was worse. As DH and I sit watching, the most common thing for us on 3rd and long is to comment 'now do a run up the middle, they'll NEVER expect THAT!' And then we watch it happen, yet again.

Definition of insanity: if you keep doing the same thing repeatedly, but expect a different result.

I've wondered this year if we didn't really keep Musgrave and just put a mask on him. The play calling has been eerily similar.

A woman is only vulnerable when her nails are wet, but even then she can pull the trigger if she needs to. SKOL y'all!

JohnBonnes Cheerleader Posts: 21 Likes: 3	Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 23, 2014 13:19:29 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by JohnBonnes on Dec 23, 2014 13:19:29 GMT -6 This is brilliant. Thank you for sharing this. I go nearly berserk when they run on 3rd and long. It's very interesting to see that trend compared to other teams.

Minniman
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Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 23, 2014 15:20:11 GMT -6

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Post by Minniman on Dec 23, 2014 15:20:11 GMT -6

Dec 23, 2014 10:17:49 GMT -6 TNVikesfan said:

I really would have thought it was worse. As DH and I sit watching, the most common thing for us on 3rd and long is to comment 'now do a run up the middle, they'll NEVER expect THAT!' And then we watch it happen, yet again.

Definition of insanity: if you keep doing the same thing repeatedly, but expect a different result.

Oh, but it did work once or twice after a missed tackle or two.

The other times? Not so much.

Logic is the beginning of wisdom - not the end.

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	Is it as bad as it seems? Dec 24, 2014 6:52:36 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2014 6:52:36 GMT -6 Very low percentage of success and a terrible strategy. And how boring?!