Post by Reignman on Aug 28, 2019 17:17:58 GMT -6
WTF is going on in baseball guys? I don't follow it as closely as some of you, but the Twins record HR pace got me a little curious so I went researching, and now I'm wondering if we're in another steroid era. It's not just the Twins who are knocking HR's out of the park at a record breaking pace. The entire league is ... except Gardenhires Tigers.
League wide, HR's are up 17.9% over last year, and 38.4% over 2014. That's crazy. Maybe not as crazy as the 39% drop from 1987 to 1988, but there are 1.40 HR's hit every game now, which is not only record crushing, it's way more than were hit any year during the actual steroid era (1993-2002). In fact the highest total that era was just 1.17 in 2000, or about 1 every 29.4 AB's. The league is hitting one every 24.5 AB's now. Every year since 2016, the HR rates match that of 2000, and 2019 is crushing all the rates.
2019 already has the 5th most HR's hit in a single season, and there's still over a full month to go lol. The record was set in 2017 when 6105 tators were hit, and 2nd most came in 2000 at 5693, but 2019 is on pace for 6800, or 11% more than what was hit 2017.
4 teams are on pace to break the single season record of 267 set by the Yankees last year. 11 teams will be in the top 20 of all time. 11 freaking teams in 1 year. 24 of the 30 teams are on pace to hit 200 or more, by far a record. 11 have already done so. A record 17 did it in 2017, and the 11 this year is already tied for 3rd most all time, with a full month to go xD. I knew something had to be going on to explain why the Twins are on pace to shatter the record with 315. The Yankees are pace for 300 as well.
So is it really another steroid era or are guys just swinging for the fences all the time? I looked at the SO rates, and that opened my eyes as well. Batters are striking out a record once every 3.93 AB's. When was the record before that? Last year at 4.01. And before that? 2017 at 4.13. In fact, MLB batters have broken the record for 12 consecutive seasons lol. That's insane.
The record was set in 2001 at 5.13 ... then ...
The Twins are doing surprisingly well in this category however. They have 4.20 SO/HR, which would be the 26th best ratio since 1961 (out of 1566 teams), and is the best in 2019. Still their AB/SO ratio is 154th worst at 4.33. 3 Teams are on pace to break the 3.45 AB/SO ratio record set by the Brewers in 2016. Detroit being the worst, and they're dead last in HR's, so go figure lol. 15 teams are on pace to be in the top 40 worst of all time, and 18 are pace to finish below 4.00, crushing the record. There were only 47 teams in this exclusive club prior to 2019. To put that into perspective, back in the late 70's and early 80's, teams only struck out about once every 7 AB's. It's nearly twice as often now. To be fair, the HR rates were about half of what they are now too (0.70 per game).
The league wide batting average (.253) is 12th lowest since 1961, but runs per game (4.84) is 7th highest. The records were set during the steroid era at .271 and 5.14. I guess steroids help you make better contact and not necessarily hit the ball further haha. Strike out rates were at about 5.37/AB back then.
diehardtwinsfan Danchat @theleviathan beckmt Minniman southwest Funkytown BarrNone55™ A-Train OdinHammer
League wide, HR's are up 17.9% over last year, and 38.4% over 2014. That's crazy. Maybe not as crazy as the 39% drop from 1987 to 1988, but there are 1.40 HR's hit every game now, which is not only record crushing, it's way more than were hit any year during the actual steroid era (1993-2002). In fact the highest total that era was just 1.17 in 2000, or about 1 every 29.4 AB's. The league is hitting one every 24.5 AB's now. Every year since 2016, the HR rates match that of 2000, and 2019 is crushing all the rates.
2019 already has the 5th most HR's hit in a single season, and there's still over a full month to go lol. The record was set in 2017 when 6105 tators were hit, and 2nd most came in 2000 at 5693, but 2019 is on pace for 6800, or 11% more than what was hit 2017.
4 teams are on pace to break the single season record of 267 set by the Yankees last year. 11 teams will be in the top 20 of all time. 11 freaking teams in 1 year. 24 of the 30 teams are on pace to hit 200 or more, by far a record. 11 have already done so. A record 17 did it in 2017, and the 11 this year is already tied for 3rd most all time, with a full month to go xD. I knew something had to be going on to explain why the Twins are on pace to shatter the record with 315. The Yankees are pace for 300 as well.
So is it really another steroid era or are guys just swinging for the fences all the time? I looked at the SO rates, and that opened my eyes as well. Batters are striking out a record once every 3.93 AB's. When was the record before that? Last year at 4.01. And before that? 2017 at 4.13. In fact, MLB batters have broken the record for 12 consecutive seasons lol. That's insane.
The record was set in 2001 at 5.13 ... then ...
YEAR AB/SO
2008 5.07
2009 4.94
2010 4.82
2011 4.80
2012 4.54
2013 4.52
2014 4.43
2015 4.42
2016 4.25
2017 4.13
2018 4.01
2019 3.93
The Twins are doing surprisingly well in this category however. They have 4.20 SO/HR, which would be the 26th best ratio since 1961 (out of 1566 teams), and is the best in 2019. Still their AB/SO ratio is 154th worst at 4.33. 3 Teams are on pace to break the 3.45 AB/SO ratio record set by the Brewers in 2016. Detroit being the worst, and they're dead last in HR's, so go figure lol. 15 teams are on pace to be in the top 40 worst of all time, and 18 are pace to finish below 4.00, crushing the record. There were only 47 teams in this exclusive club prior to 2019. To put that into perspective, back in the late 70's and early 80's, teams only struck out about once every 7 AB's. It's nearly twice as often now. To be fair, the HR rates were about half of what they are now too (0.70 per game).
The league wide batting average (.253) is 12th lowest since 1961, but runs per game (4.84) is 7th highest. The records were set during the steroid era at .271 and 5.14. I guess steroids help you make better contact and not necessarily hit the ball further haha. Strike out rates were at about 5.37/AB back then.
diehardtwinsfan Danchat @theleviathan beckmt Minniman southwest Funkytown BarrNone55™ A-Train OdinHammer